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Can Hyperliquid (HYPE) Flip Ripple (XRP) in 2026? 3 AIs Weigh in

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HYPE – the native token of the decentralized crypto exchange Hyperliquid – has been on a tear lately, hitting a new all-time high even as most digital assets continue to struggle in the prolonged bear market.

It recently surpassed Dogecoin (DOGE) to become the 10th-biggest cryptocurrency, so we decided to ask three of the most popular AI-powered chatbots whether flipping Ripple’s XRP is also plausible sometime this year. Here are their answers.

Low Probability

Earlier this week, HYPE’s price soared to a historic peak of around $77, while its market cap pumped to approximately $16 billion. Despite the substantial increase, it remains far below XRP, whose capitalization currently stands at around $74 billion.

Given the huge gap, ChatGPT described the scenario in which HYPE surpasses its rival as a low probability. At the same time, OpenAI’s platform outlined several catalysts that could help the asset explode to such levels. Some of those include the rising popularity of Hyperliquid and its future expansion to the point where it becomes a Binance competitor, and backing from prominent industry figures.

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Recall that Arthur Hayes (co-founder of BitMEX) was heavily invested in the token, yet he recently sold all his positions. Shortly after, the blockchain-tracking platform Lookonchain suggested he might have spent over $2 million to buy back nearly 34,000 HYPE. However, Hayes rejected the claim.

According to ChatGPT, another factor that may have a positive influence is the institutional interest in the coin. Data show that inflows into spot HYPE ETFs have exceeded outflows recently, with cumulative net inflows of approximately $180 million. Still, this figure is far below the $1.44 billion that exchange-traded funds with XRP as the underlying token have attracted since their launch in late 2025.

Perplexity shared a similar theory, saying that such a rise by HYPE is only possible in “a narrow sense.” It noted that, in addition to its market-cap lead, XRP has a vast and devoted community, which could make a potential flip even harder.

“In 2026, HYPE can plausibly flip XRP on price momentum, narrative strength, or even short-term market cap at times, but XRP has a much larger base to overtake, so a full sustained flip is less likely without a major rotation in capital,” it added.

‘A Massive Uphill Battle’

Google’s Gemini was even less optimistic, claiming that the biggest hurdle for HYPE isn’t its utility but pure math. It praised XRP for being “a highly liquid, large-cap legacy asset,” whose market cap hovers in the tens of billions of dollars even during market corrections, “sustained by deep institutional plumbing and international remittance use cases.”

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“For HYPE to flip XRP, it would need to see an astronomical influx of capital, multi-billion-dollar daily trading volumes, and massive speculative retail FOMO – all while XRP would have to severely stagnate or decline,” it concluded.

The post Can Hyperliquid (HYPE) Flip Ripple (XRP) in 2026? 3 AIs Weigh in appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Fidelity joins Wall Street’s race to manage stablecoin reserves

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Fidelity joins Wall Street's race to manage stablecoin reserves

The GENIUS Act, signed into law last year, established the first federal framework for payment stablecoins in the United States. Among other requirements, issuers must hold reserves in cash, short-term Treasury securities and certain government money market funds.

The legislation has created an opportunity for traditional asset managers to offer regulated vehicles that stablecoin issuers can use to manage those reserves while generating yield.

Fidelity’s fund will invest in U.S. Treasury bills, notes and bonds with maturities of 93 days or less, cash, overnight repurchase agreements backed by Treasuries and other government money market funds that comply with the law.

“Fidelity has a longstanding history in fixed income and money markets, making us uniquely positioned to offer a money market fund for stablecoin issuers that is compliant with the new GENIUS-Act legislation,” said Robin Foley, Fidelity’s head of fixed income, in a statement.

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While Fidelity’s announcement focused on reserve management, State Street framed its launch as part of a broader push into tokenized finance through partnerships with crypto firms such as Anchorage Digital and products designed for onchain liquidity management.

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Trump to Return Iran’s Frozen Money to Protect the Dollar

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Trump’s AI Ownership Plan Could Benefit Anthropic at OpenAI’s Expense

President Donald Trump said the United States will hand back Iran’s frozen money rather than seize it, warning that keeping the funds would destroy global confidence in the U.S. dollar.

His comments at the G7 summit touched a nerve central to crypto, where the threat of asset seizure is a core argument for holding neutral, borderless reserves like Bitcoin.

Returning the Frozen Money

Trump made the remarks at a G7 conference in France, responding to a question about whether Washington would unfreeze Iranian assets.

He drew a sharp line between paying Iran and releasing money the U.S. had frozen.

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“It is not our money. It is their money. And we froze it at a certain point in time.”

Trump said he had personally weighed keeping the funds before deciding against it. A recent report indicated that the US had reached $1 billion in cumulative seizure of Iranian crypto assets as of late May.

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A Warning About Dollar Confidence

Trump argued that holding seized money would damage the dollar’s standing and its dominance as the world’s reserve asset.

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“If we did not get back, no one would ever invest in the dollar again.”

He linked the decision to the currency’s strength under his administration.

“The dollar has become very strong under me.”

Trump also stressed the U.S. is not financing Iran directly, contrasting the deal with past cash transfers.

“We are not putting up money. Only if they are doing things right.”

Why Crypto is Watching

The seizure question sits at the center of Bitcoin’s appeal. Each time Washington weaponizes the dollar, it strengthens the case for a neutral store of value beyond any government’s reach.

That logic drives the debasement trade, where investors treat Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat risk and money printing.

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Trump himself has floated a strategic reserve to strengthen the country’s position.

The post Trump to Return Iran’s Frozen Money to Protect the Dollar appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Bitcoin (BTC) layer-2s face a bear-market reality check

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Bitcoin (BTC) layer-2s face a bear-market reality check

The distinction matters. Wrapped bitcoin products such as WBTC, Coinbase’s cbBTC and Circle’s recently announced synthetic bitcoin product already allow BTC to circulate in DeFi. But Tse said many bitcoin holders dislike giving up custody in exchange for synthetic tokens.

“Most users, many users, do not like it,” he said. “They don’t want to give up title, they don’t want to give up custody.”

Bitcoin layer-2s

Orkun Mahir Kılıç, co-founder and CEO of Chainway Labs, developer of Citrea, offered a blunter critique of the sector’s earlier ambitions.

“Trying to do the same things as Solana the day you launch doesn’t make any sense,” he said.

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Bitcoin layer-2s should stop pitching themselves as general-purpose blockchains, he added. The market already has mature ecosystems for trading, lending, consumer applications and perpetual futures.

Instead, Kılıç said, Bitcoin layer-2s should focus on products “uniquely enabled by Bitcoin security and settlement.”

There are still things that wait to be solved on the Bitcoin layer-2 markets,” he said. “But definitely general-purpose ecosystem focus, like trying to compete with Ethereum applications on your day one, is a little bit hard to achieve.”

Diego Gutierrez Zaldivar, CEO and co-founder of Rootstock Labs, said Botanix’s closure reflects another lesson: building a blockchain ecosystem is much harder than solving the technical problem.

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Here is how Coinbase plan to survive the crypto winter by ditching its reliance on trading fees

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Here is how Coinbase plan to survive the crypto winter by ditching its reliance on trading fees

Coinbase’s (COIN) latest product launch event may not have changed Wall Street’s near-term earnings forecasts, but it reinforced a growing belief among analysts that the crypto exchange is steadily transforming itself into a broader financial platform with revenue streams that extend beyond bitcoin’s price cycles.

At Tuesday’s System Update event in New York, Coinbase unveiled products spanning derivatives, tokenized stocks, stablecoin payments, lending and artificial intelligence. While the announcements covered a wide range of businesses, analysts focused less on the individual products and more on what they reveal about the company’s long-term strategy.

For years, Coinbase’s fortunes have been closely tied to crypto trading activity. When bitcoin rallies and retail investors return to the market, trading revenue tends to surge. During slower periods, that revenue can fall sharply. Analysts increasingly view Coinbase’s product expansion as an effort to reduce that dependence.

“The new features are aligned with the company’s effort to become the ‘everything’ exchange,” Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish wrote following the event, adding that the company is seeking to capture a larger share of customers’ financial activity as crypto trading volumes remain relatively subdued.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal struck a similar tone. While acknowledging softer conditions across crypto markets, he said Coinbase’s “innovation engine hasn’t skipped a beat” and argued that the company is positioning itself to benefit from a future where consumers manage investing, spending and borrowing through a single app or wallet.

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‘The prize’

What stood out to analysts among Coinbase’s myriad new product launches was derivatives.

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Did Coinbase doxx its first bitcoin mortgage customer?

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Did Coinbase doxx its first bitcoin mortgage customer?

Coinbase has hit back at claims that it doxxed a customer who made use of the exchange’s first crypto-backed mortgage.

During a June 16 event, at which Coinbase unveiled 21 new products, the company shared a photo of the house apparently backed by the mortgage, describing the owner as someone who owns a lot of bitcoin (BTC).

However, a critic soon claimed to have pulled up the buyer’s Zillow listing — not ideal, given that BTC’s parabolic price increase over the past 17 years and the fact that keys instantly confer ownership make owners appealing targets for thieves.

Attempting to downplay any fears, a Coinbase spokesperson told Protos, “During the exciting process of closing on the home, Coinbase and Better worked closely with the homeowner on a mindful way to share the news while maintaining their privacy.

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“We received a picture of the house, taken by the homeowner, and took steps to anonymize the house by removing and changing key identifiers and features.

“We then received their express permission to use the altered image in both Better’s press release and Coinbase’s recent showcase.”

Despite these steps, Protos staff was able to determine the address of the house, which we will withhold out of respect for the owner’s privacy.

Read more: Coinbase changed lawsuit rules a day before disclosing data breach, report

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Clearly a customer’s house

Although it is digitally altered, the house is not a stock photo. On the original press release as well as during Coinbase’s launch event this week, the company clarified that the house is, despite modifications, a photo of the house of the customer.

A caption on the original image reads, “First home purchased with Better and Coinbase’s BTC-backed mortgage.”

The crypto-backed mortgage program is a joint effort between Coinbase and Better Home & Finance, a Nasdaq-listed lender run by Vishal Garg. The two companies announced the home purchase in March as the first bitcoin-backed, GSE-conforming mortgage.

The whole arrangement became possible after Federal Housing Finance Agency then-Director Bill Pulte ordered GSE companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to count crypto as a mortgage-qualifying asset in 2025.

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Under the program, lenders have counted pledged BTC at roughly 40% of its value, a steep 60% haircut, whereas USDC gets about 80% credit. Liquidation kicks in only after a borrower goes 60 days delinquent.

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Jeffrey Gundlach says Fed’s Warsh is not going to be the ‘easy money’ chairman many hoped for

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Jeffrey Gundlach: Kevin Warsh may not be the easy money chairman people thought
Jeffrey Gundlach: Kevin Warsh may not be the easy money chairman people thought

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone than many investors expected, underscoring his commitment to restoring price stability and signaling less appetite for easy monetary policy.

“He is absolutely telling you that he plans on delivering on price stability. So that means… we’re not going to have such easy money policy as everybody thought maybe Chairman Warsh would do back in the first quarter of this year, when everyone was counting on rate cuts,” Gundlach said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.”  “He doesn’t sound like that today at all.”

The comments came after the Fed’s policy statement declared that “the Committee will deliver price stability,” language that echoed a theme Warsh repeatedly returned to during his press conference. He reiterated that the Fed is committed to bringing inflation back down to 2%, a level it hasn’t been at for a half decade, a fact he lamented.

“The commitment to deliver is strong, unanimous, and unambiguous, and that’s I think an important message we’ve missed for five years, and we’re going to fix that,” Warsh said.

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The tone was perhaps stiffer on inflation than investors and economists hoped for from President Donald Trump’s handpicked nominee for the role. The previous chair, Jerome Powell, faced a barrage of attacks from Trump for keeping rates too high.

Warsh also declined to submit an individual interest-rate projection in the central bank’s closely watched dot plot and signaled a broader review of the Fed’s communications framework.

Gundlach said Warsh’s emphasis on price stability lowers the risk that the Fed will pursue overly accommodative policies that could reignite inflation. That strengthens the case for owning long-term U.S. Treasuries, he said.

“I think there’s a greater reason to own long-term Treasuries today now that the new sheriff is in town,” Gundlach said. “If you’re going to get price stability, and if he doesn’t deliver on something that can be characterized as price stability, he’s basically announced today that he would be considered a failure.”

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The billionaire bond investor said Warsh had effectively staked his credibility on bringing inflation under control, making aggressive rate cuts less likely.

“So he’s got to get that inflation rate down,” Gundlach said. “We don’t have to worry about the over-easing or overly accommodative rates that would put further pressure on the long bond.”

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US Lawmakers Urge Against Presidential Pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried

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Crypto Breaking News

Two US senators—one Republican and one Democrat—are pushing back against any attempt by former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried to secure executive clemency from President Donald Trump. Senator Cynthia Lummis and Senator Rubén Gallego plan to introduce a non-binding resolution stating that under no circumstances should Bankman-Fried receive a pardon or commutation.

The lawmakers say the aim is to protect the integrity of the sentencing outcome and deterrence for large-scale financial fraud. The resolution argues that the 25-year sentence imposed on Bankman-Fried reflects the “extraordinary scale and deliberateness” of his crimes, his lack of remorse, and the harm inflicted on millions of victims.

Key takeaways

  • Senators Cynthia Lummis (R) and Rubén Gallego (D) will introduce a non-binding resolution opposing any presidential pardon or commutation for Sam Bankman-Fried.
  • The resolution emphasizes that Bankman-Fried’s 25-year sentence reflects the “extraordinary scale” and “deliberateness” of his offenses and the widespread impact on victims.
  • Bankman-Fried’s remaining legal options are limited to a presidential pardon or further review by the US Supreme Court after a federal appeals court upheld his conviction and sentence.
  • The senators warn that granting clemency would “erase” the conviction, weaken deterrence, and send a “damaging message” that perpetrators of major financial fraud can avoid permanent accountability.

What the Senate resolution would do

According to the text of the resolution to be introduced Wednesday, Lummis and Gallego would effectively register the Senate’s position that President Trump should not grant clemency “under no circumstances,” including a pardon or commutation for Bankman-Fried.

The senators note that a presidential pardon is a constitutional power, meaning any Senate action of this type is not legally binding. Even so, the resolution is intended to create political and legislative pressure by explicitly tying clemency to deterrence and accountability concerns.

The measure further states that the Senate affirms the duration of Bankman-Fried’s sentence and frames that punishment as consistent with justice and the case’s specific circumstances, including the scope of wrongdoing and the consequences for victims.

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The resolution is provided through a document published on Gallego’s official website: MEE26050.pdf.

Bankman-Fried’s clemency bid follows an appeals loss

The resolution arrives after Bankman-Fried formally applied for a presidential pardon related to his conviction on seven felony counts connected to the misuse of FTX user funds. Earlier coverage from Cointelegraph detailed that application and the broader push for clemency: SBF clemency bid.

In the latest procedural turn, a federal appeals court upheld Bankman-Fried’s conviction and 25-year sentence, leaving his path forward narrowed to either seeking a pardon or pursuing review by the US Supreme Court. Cointelegraph previously reported on the appeals court decision here: Bankman-Fried loses appeal.

Because the appeals court decision sustained both the conviction and the length of the prison term, clemency would function as the main mechanism for any outcome short of further litigation—an issue the senators appear to be targeting directly with their “no pardon, no commutation” language.

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Why deterrence is at the center of the lawmakers’ argument

Lummis and Gallego’s resolution focuses not on the details of the original sentencing alone, but on what they argue would happen if the conviction were undone at the executive level. In their framing, a pardon would “erase” the conviction and, more importantly, could weaken deterrence for future financial crimes.

The lawmakers also portray clemency as a broader signal to the public: that individuals accused and convicted of large-scale financial fraud may escape permanent accountability even after a lengthy federal sentence.

This deterrence theme matters in the context of the FTX collapse, which triggered one of the most significant blowups in the crypto sector’s modern history. Bankman-Fried was convicted in November 2023 following FTX’s collapse in 2022, and he was later sentenced to 25 years in prison. Cointelegraph noted the conviction and sentencing background in its reporting.

The senators’ argument effectively tries to connect executive discretion to market and regulatory confidence—suggesting that the aftermath of high-profile fraud cases influences how seriously deterrence is treated across the financial system.

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Other FTX defendants remain in the criminal system

The resolution discussion also sits alongside the continued legal fallout from the FTX collapse. Even as Bankman-Fried seeks clemency, other figures from the broader FTX and Alameda orbit have faced sentencing outcomes ranging from prison terms to time served in exchange for cooperation.

According to the article’s summary of court outcomes, Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research, received a two-year sentence in 2024 and was granted early release in January after serving 14 months. Meanwhile, Nishad Singh, the former engineering director at FTX, and Gary Wang, a co-founder, were both sentenced to time served, with their testimony offered against Bankman-Fried during trial.

Another defendant, Ryan Salame, the former co-CEO of FTX Digital Markets, was sentenced to 90 months in prison tied to unlawful political contributions and conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money-transmitting business.

The article also notes that Salame’s wife, Michelle Bond, was indicted in connection with charges tied to her 2022 run for Congress, with allegations that campaign funds were financed with illegal contributions linked to the crypto exchange. This was reported by Courthouse News Service in coverage referenced by Cointelegraph: indicted.

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That broader slate of cases underscores an important point for investors and observers: even if one individual’s sentence is subject to presidential clemency, the overall accountability process tied to FTX and related conduct has not ended.

Going forward, readers should watch whether the White House signals any openness to clemency despite the appeals court ruling—and whether the Senate resolution gains additional support in a way that could influence the political calculus surrounding executive action.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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BTC Price Drops as New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Holds Rates Steady

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The first FOMC meeting with the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, at the helm of the central bank didn’t provide any surprises, as the entity expectedly left the interest rates unchanged.

With the benchmark remaining between 3.5% and 3.75%, bitcoin’s price reacted with minor initial volatility, but there are some warning signs about an upcoming correction.

Recall that nearly two months ago, the Fed under then-Chair Jerome Powell left the rates unchanged for the third consecutive time. However, there were signs from Powell that rate hikes might follow suit.

Despite today’s non-event, as it was described by David Wessel, director of Brookings’ Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, he also said that Kevin Warsh now finally has the power to change things at the Fed after years of “ranting about” it.

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Bank of America’s fund manager survey showed that 55% anticipated Warsh would be hawkish at the press conference, but Stephen Juneau, the bank’s US economist, held the opposite view.

“The investor consensus seems to be that Warsh will lean hawkish in his press conference. We think he’ll be dovish.”

Bitcoin’s price was slightly volatile in the hours leading up to the event, going below $65,000 earlier today before it shot up to $66,400. However, it dipped by over a grand in the first minutes after the news of the unchanged rates went live.

BTCUSD June 17. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD June 17. Source: TradingView

Previous reports from crypto experts noted that the first FOMC meeting and the subsequent Warsh press conference could be one of the most important macro events for the industry.

The post BTC Price Drops as New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Holds Rates Steady appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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ASTER jumps 20% after Aster ties nearly all platform fees to token buybacks

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Aster daily price chart.

ASTER has surged more than 20% after Aster unveiled a new tokenomics framework that commits almost all platform fee revenue to daily token buybacks and large-scale supply reductions.

Summary

  • ASTER surged over 20% after Aster committed 99% of platform fees to daily token buybacks.
  • Aster plans to cut ASTER supply from 8 billion to 3 billion through ongoing reserve burns.
  • Technical indicators turned bullish as ASTER broke above $0.65 and approached resistance near $0.81.

According to a June 17 X post by Aster, 99% of the protocol’s daily fees will now be used to purchase ASTER from the open market beginning June 17 at 12:00 PM UTC. The announcement pushed the token close to $0.80 before some profit-taking emerged, with ASTER later changing hands near $0.74, up roughly 13% over the past day.

The update introduces a second layer of supply reduction alongside the buybacks. Aster said it will remove an equal amount of ASTER from reserve holdings each day, creating what the protocol described as a 198% combined buyback-and-burn effect.

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Reserve reductions will begin with the team allocation and continue until the total token supply falls from 8 billion ASTER to 3 billion.

Additional demand could also come from Aster Spot. According to the protocol, every permissionless token listing on the platform will require a 50,000 USDT fee, with all proceeds earmarked for further ASTER buybacks that will be distributed to stakers through the rewards program.

Platform fees now drive ASTER rewards

Rather than destroying purchased tokens, Aster said the acquired ASTER will be distributed to participants in its Loyalty Rewards program.

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Under the revised model, each reward epoch will include a fixed allocation of 300,000 ASTER plus all tokens accumulated through daily buybacks.

Distribution will be directed to veASTER holders according to lock-weighted participation. Aster added that all buybacks will be executed through an automated daily time-weighted average price process and settled on-chain. To increase transparency, the project has also published the wallet address used for the purchases, allowing users to verify transactions independently.

By linking fee generation directly to token purchases, staking rewards and reserve reductions, the protocol has created a mechanism where higher trading activity results in larger buybacks and larger reward distributions.

Technical breakout places $0.81 resistance in focus

Market participants responded quickly to the announcement, driving ASTER above a trading range that had largely contained price action since April. On the daily chart, the token broke through support-turned-resistance near $0.65 and climbed toward the next major barrier around $0.81.

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Aster daily price chart.
Aster daily price chart — June 18 | Source: crypto.news

The daily chart also showed strengthening momentum indicators following the move. ASTER’s Relative Strength Index rose above 65, while the MACD produced a bullish crossover accompanied by expanding positive histogram bars, signaling stronger buying pressure.

The $0.81 region remains an important level because it coincides with several prior rejection points visible on the daily chart. A successful break above that zone could expose the token to areas not tested since late 2025, while traders may look for the former resistance near $0.65 to act as support if the rally pauses.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Kevin Warsh holds rates steady despite fresh inflation fears

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Kevin Warsh holds rates steady despite fresh inflation fears

This article was updated with additional details from the Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot projections and voting results.

The Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting as policymakers continue monitoring inflation risks across the U.S. economy.

Summary

  • The Federal Reserve unanimously kept interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fourth straight meeting.
  • Fed projections showed nine officials expect at least one rate hike this year, signaling persistent inflation concerns.
  • Bitcoin fell to $65,430 as investors assessed the Fed’s hawkish outlook and Kevin Warsh’s policy stance.

According to the Federal Open Market Committee, officials voted unanimously to leave rates unchanged at the conclusion of the June meeting, keeping the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%

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The decision extended a pause that has remained in place throughout 2026 and matched market expectations, with investors widely anticipating no change in policy despite continued concerns about inflation.

Attention has now turned to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first post-meeting press conference, where investors are looking for clues about how policymakers view inflation and whether tighter monetary policy could still be required later this year.

Inflation concerns continue to shape policy outlook

Although the Fed left rates unchanged, concerns about inflation remain central to the policy discussion. In its statement, the Committee cited ongoing uncertainty surrounding price pressures as officials weigh future decisions.

Among the firms adopting a more cautious view, Citadel Securities has warned that inflation may be becoming entrenched across the economy. As previously reported by crypto.news, the firm pointed to supportive financial conditions, labor market resilience, supply-chain disruptions, and rising investment tied to artificial intelligence as factors that could keep inflation elevated.

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Citadel also highlighted recent economic data showing a growing share of core Consumer Price Index components increasing more than 3% year over year. The firm noted that headline CPI reached 4.2% in May, while Producer Price Index inflation accelerated to 6.5%, indicating continued cost pressures for businesses.

Based on those conditions, Citadel expects the Federal Reserve under Warsh to maintain a hawkish stance. The firm estimates that at least five Fed officials could signal support for future tightening and argues that an inertial Taylor Rule framework would justify roughly 75 basis points of rate increases during 2026.

Under Citadel’s forecast, rate hikes could arrive in September and December 2026, followed by another increase in March 2027. While the firm does not expect an immediate move, it said Warsh’s assessment of inflation risks will be critical for markets.

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Adding to the debate, BNP Paribas recently abandoned its expectation for stable policy and now forecasts three rate hikes beginning in December. The bank cited persistent inflation, strong employment data, and inflation risks associated partly with geopolitical tensions involving Iran.

Fresh economic projections released alongside the decision suggested many policymakers remain concerned about inflation. According to the Fed’s updated dot plot, nine of 18 officials expect at least one rate hike before the end of the year.

Six of those officials projected multiple increases, while only one participant forecast a rate cut. One official did not submit a projection, a position widely assumed by market observers to belong to Chair Kevin Warsh.

Markets await signals from Warsh

Recent developments in energy markets have complicated the inflation outlook. Following the initial U.S.-Iran agreement, oil prices moved lower, reducing one source of inflation pressure. Even so, several analysts continue to argue that price increases have spread beyond energy and into other parts of the economy.

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Political pressure has also remained in focus. President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for lower interest rates, although he recently suggested he would not pressure Warsh to cut rates in the same manner he publicly challenged former Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Financial markets showed a muted reaction following the announcement, although risk assets weakened after investors reviewed the Fed’s projections. According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin fell 0.6% over the previous 24 hours to around $65,430, while Ethereum declined 1.4% to roughly $1,770.

Most other top-100 digital assets traded near flat levels, posting only modest gains or losses. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization slipped 0.7% to approximately $2.33 trillion at press time as traders continued assessing the implications of the Fed’s decision and the possibility of future policy tightening.

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