Mumbai: Few IPO calendars have looked as momentous as the ones shaping up in the US and India. On one side are OpenAI and Anthropic, two mega companies looking to ride the AI frenzy following the jumbo SpaceX issue’s roaring success earlier in June. On the other are India’s long-awaited giant IPOs, Jio Platforms and NSE, which have been part of investors’ wish lists for years.

The biggest difference between the upcoming IPOs in India and the US is not their size but the market mood they are arriving in.

OpenAI and Anthropic are preparing to tap the primary market at a time when enthusiasm over AI has pushed US equities to record highs, creating an almost ideal backdrop for IPOs. In contrast, Jio and NSE are heading to the market in a far less ideal IPO milieu.

While OpenAI and Anthropic enjoy the luxury of launching their IPOs in a market where investors are looking to lap up anything linked to AI, Jio and NSE must do all the heavy lifting, as appetite for Indian equities is far from its peak.

This difference is consequential. Historically, mega IPOs have signalled market tops as issuers look to capitalise on investor frenzy. The logic here is that investors are willing to pay just about anything to be part of the euphoria, ignoring valuation concerns.

This theory, to some extent, resonates with what’s happening in the US, where the loss-making SpaceX listed at a record valuation of $1.8 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies. Though SpaceX shares are stuttering after the blockbuster debut, the strong showing in the IPO has set the stage for OpenAI and Anthropic in the coming months. There is nothing, for now, to suggest that their IPOs would not sail through unless investors lose faith in the AI theme as a whole.
Shift focus to India: Jio and NSE are preparing to list at a time when Indian markets have delivered no or marginal returns in the past two years. While foreign investors have fled Indian stocks in large numbers, individual investors-the street’s current backbone-are showing less enthusiasm towards equities. Moreover, most recent listings have been far from inspiring.That’s good news for investors. The IPO valuations of both these issuances are likely to be far more sober, with fewer deviations from their listed peers and in sync with the overall large-cap space. Early indications suggest that global investors are considering deploying money in these IPOs, judging them on a standalone basis rather than as part of an India portfolio, given their dominant presence in sectors with high entry barriers.

Some optimists are counting on the Jio and NSE IPOs to give the secondary market a boost, the way Maruti Suzuki‘s IPO in 2003-04 proved to be a turning point for Indian markets. The carmaker’s IPO, coming after the dot-com bubble burst and in the aftermath of the Ketan Parekh scam, was credited with reviving retail participation in equities and improving investor sentiment, signalling the start of one of India’s best bull runs-between 2003 and 2007.

Whether Jio and NSE can have a similar effect is debatable, given the vastly different market and economic conditions prevailing today. Currently, the market is far more mature, with domestic equity ownership at record levels, creating less scope for the entry of a new army of domestic retail investors.

The real test for the Jio and NSE IPOs will not be whether they get fully subscribed; it will be whether the issues can rekindle foreign investor interest in Indian markets. Maruti’s IPO helped bring domestic investors back to the market. Two decades later, Jio and NSE face a bigger task: persuading global investors to give India another look.