Bitcoin slid sharply over the past several sessions, briefly testing levels last seen in September 2024 and triggering a wave of leveraged liquidations. While broader risk assets steadied after a key US inflation print, crypto-specific flows and derivatives positioning pointed to waning demand and a market that may be primed for further volatility.

At the same time, institutional indicators are sending mixed signals: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw meaningful net outflows, and an upcoming options expiry appears structurally bearish. With traders increasingly reassessing risk-reward against interest-bearing alternatives, the near-term question for Bitcoin is no longer just whether the macro backdrop improves, but whether crypto can generate its own catalyst.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin fell about 9% in three days, reaching its lowest level since September 2024 and sparking over $1 billion in liquidations on leveraged long positions.
• Spot Bitcoin ETF activity deteriorated, with $469 million in net outflows reported for Wednesday—an oft-cited proxy for institutional demand.
• Friday’s Bitcoin options expiry is heavily skewed toward puts, with Deribit put open interest expected to exceed calls by $3.4 billion.
• Rising confidence in a cooling inflation trend helped stocks and pressured demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, while 5-year US Treasuries yielded about 4.15%.

Bitcoin’s sharp drop and the forced unwinds

Bitcoin traded down roughly 9% across three days, hitting a low not seen since September 2024. The subsequent retest of the $58,000 area proved painful for bulls: more than $1 billion in liquidations were recorded across bullish BTC leveraged positions. Although BTC recovered modestly to around $59,500, the move left traders cautious rather than confident.

Part of the timing lined up with the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. The data showed May inflation rising 4.1% year over year. Even so, the market response suggested investors believed inflation pressures had begun to cool—especially as crude Brent retreated from roughly $95 earlier to around $75 more recently.

That easing in energy prices appears to have helped equities. The article notes that the S&P 500 and gold had erased their intraday losses, indicating that traders were willing to rotate back into risk assets after digesting macro updates.

Why crypto’s correlation story is breaking

Even when Bitcoin moves in tandem with broader markets, investors often look to whether the “risk-on” tailwind is actually benefiting crypto. Here, several crypto-specific signals suggest BTC is not simply lagging equities—it may be diverging.

The piece highlights a shift in how traders may be framing opportunity costs. It points to stronger performance in parts of the tech sector, referencing notable stock moves such as Micron’s 16% jump and a similar surge in Sandisk, alongside gains in chipmaking equipment. In that environment, Bitcoin can lose relative appeal if capital is finding stronger payoff in equities.

Beyond stock action, the article ties the broader risk appetite to shifting government emphasis on areas that support infrastructure and computing capacity. It also references a set of policy angles—such as a stake in Intel and proposals and frameworks related to quantum computing and “frontier models”—which are presented as supporting factors for the tech and data infrastructure narrative.

For Bitcoin traders, the key implication is straightforward: if equities are offering both momentum and an improving macro narrative, then BTC needs more than soft correlations to attract incremental risk capital.

Fixed income turns into a more competitive hedge

One of the article’s central arguments is that the balance of hedging tools may be changing. When rates are rising or expected to rise, investors often prefer assets that can generate yield—particularly in uncertain regimes where non-yielding assets like Bitcoin face more headwinds.

According to the coverage, traders may be pricing in an elevated probability of US rate increases into year-end. It cites the CME FedWatch Tool showing an 80% chance of US interest rate hikes by December, up from 68% a month earlier. In the same vein, it points out that 5-year US Treasuries were yielding about 4.15%, providing an alternative “parking place” for capital compared to Bitcoin.

That matters because the attractiveness of Bitcoin frequently hinges on whether investors believe they can finance exposure cheaply or whether cash is earning too much elsewhere. If Treasury yields remain competitive, the burden shifts to crypto-specific demand drivers—ETF flows, onboarding, or derivative positioning that reflects genuine upside conviction.

ETF outflows and options skew reinforce caution

Two of the most immediately actionable signals in the report come from flows and derivatives.

On the spot ETF side, the article says Bitcoin’s outlook took a hit from $469 million in net outflows on Wednesday. It frames this metric as a proxy for institutional demand—meaning persistent negative flows can signal that large allocators are not actively adding to exposure at current prices.

Derivatives are sending a similar cautionary message. The coverage points to Friday’s upcoming Bitcoin options expiry of about $13 billion, stating that the distribution of open interest favors put instruments. It reports that put open interest on Deribit is expected to exceed call open interest by $3.4 billion.

It also adds that most neutral-to-bullish options structures are likely to expire worthless, because 78% of call options are priced at $72,000 or higher. Taken together, the options market suggests the crowd is paying for downside protection—or positioning for reduced upside.

The article further notes deterioration in the Strategy (MSTR) position, referencing “huge unrealized loss” after buying $64.1 billion worth of Bitcoin since 2020. While equity-linked narratives can influence trader sentiment, the bigger takeaway is that corporate exposure does not automatically translate into stable support for spot demand, especially when ETF flows are negative.

What to watch next

With liquidations behind BTC for now but ETF outflows and a put-heavy options expiry still in focus, traders should look for evidence that spot demand returns—either through improved ETF flow trends or a shift in derivatives positioning as the expiry passes. Until then, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim strength may depend less on macro tailwinds and more on whether crypto-specific demand reappears.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $58,000 has pushed the price into a zone that long-term power-law models have historically associated with cycle bottoms. The data does not confirm a bottom range, though it shows BTC trading in a price range that has repeatedly marked major lows since 2014. 

Derivatives data and liquidation levels highlight $55,000 as the next key support level and the $65,000-$68,000 range as the next major upside area of interest. 

Bitcoin power-law puts $58,000 in historical range

Giovanni’s Bitcoin power-law model places the network’s long-term trend price near $135,000, making the recent drop to $58,000 roughly 54% below the all-time high and 1.22 standard deviations beneath that trend.

According to the analyst, the key takeaway is straightforward: the previous cycle lows in 2012, 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022 all fell within a similar statistical range. By that measure, the latest decline falls within a territory that has historically marked the deep bear-market lows rather than a break in Bitcoin’s long-term growth path.

Bitcoin price deviation based on the power-law trend. Source: X

The model estimates the commonly referenced “-1σ” support near $68,000, while the stronger historical floor sits closer to $55,000. Giovanni also noted that Bitcoin would need to trade below roughly $17,000 for more than a year before the power-law itself could be considered invalid.

A second metric points in the same direction. Bitcoin’s power-law quantile has fallen to 6.2%, indicating the asset is cheaper than roughly 94% of its historical observations when measured against the power-law model. The chart highlights similar readings during the 2015, 2020, and 2023 cycle lows, with the current market now revisiting that historically rare valuation zone.

Bitcoin power-law quantile regression chart. Source: Checkonchain

Related: Bitcoin drops to $58K on high US PCE inflation as trader sees ‘manipulation’

Key BTC price levels to watch

Bitcoin fell to a new yearly low of $58,000 after aggressive selling swept through Binance. The hourly taker sell volume reached $2.1 billion, followed by another $1.9 billion in the next hour after the New York market open, marking the exchange’s largest hourly sell pressure since May 4.

Bitcoin taker sell volume on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

The flush liquidated more than $300 million in long BTC positions before the price rebounded toward $60,000. That level now carries added significance. A daily close back above $60,000 preserves the developing relative-strength index (RSI) bullish divergence across the one-hour, four-hour, and daily time frames which signals that selling momentum is fading even as the price prints lower lows.

BTC/USDT, one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Futures trader Byzantine General shared a similar outlook, saying the move to $58,000 cleared out leveraged longs while drawing in fresh short sellers. In his view, a daily close above $60,000 would strengthen the case that Bitcoin has printed a local bottom for now. 

That would also shift attention toward a large pocket of upside liquidity. More than $4 billion in short liquidations cluster near $65,000, compared with about $1 billion below $55,000, creating a four-to-one imbalance. A relief rally could then target internal liquidity near $68,000, where a daily fair-value gap adds another area of interest for traders. 

BTC liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass

Meanwhile, a daily close below $60,000 reinforces the bearish bias on both the short-term and long-term charts. The next area of interest then shifts to $55,000, where Bitcoin’s September 2024 weekly range low converges with its realized price near $54,000. 

The realized price, which tracks the average cost basis of all onchain coins, has historically provided support at every major Bitcoin bear-market bottom since 2014. That trend makes the $54,000-$55,000 region a key level for traders to watch if selling pressure continues. 

Bitcoin’s realized price. Source: X

Related: Bitcoin drop to $58K brings out bears: Is BTC’s next stop below $50K?

TLDR:

• The SecondFi exploit drained 374 Cardano wallets across four attack events between June 21–23, 2026.
• Approximately 16 million ADA worth $2.4M was stolen by two identified attackers across three automated waves.
• Emergency rescue efforts secured around 129 million ADA, with a dedicated restoration fund already established.
• Affected wallets are permanently compromised; users must avoid independent seed phrase restoration or asset migration.
  

Cardano’s largest wallet provider, SecondFi, suffered a major security breach between June 21 and 23, 2026. The SecondFi exploit drained funds from 374 wallet addresses across four separate attack events.

Approximately 16 million ADA, valued at around $2.4 million, was compromised. EMURGO, a co-founding entity of Cardano, has since stepped forward with a formal incident update, outlining recovery measures and committing to full reimbursement for all affected users.

Attack Scope and Attacker Identification

The SecondFi exploit unfolded in three automated waves, each targeting multiple wallets in rapid succession. Forensic analysis identified two distinct threat actors responsible for the breach. Attacker A operated across Waves 1 and 2, draining 171 wallets through coordinated automated batches.

SecondFi publicly disclosed the attacker addresses for full community transparency. Attacker A used three collection wallets and a central fee address, all linked to a single stake key. Attacker B operated independently in Wave 3, sweeping 203 additional wallets in a separate automated run.

According to SecondFi’s post on X, over 4 million ADA linked to Attacker B remains in one flagged collection address.

That address is currently under active monitoring and investigation by the team. Law enforcement and relevant authorities have been notified as part of the formal incident response.

The speed and coordination of the attack pointed to a premeditated, multi-actor operation. Security analysts described it as a highly sophisticated enterprise rather than an opportunistic breach.

Emergency Response and Asset Recovery

Following the initial discovery on June 22nd, SecondFi activated emergency response protocols immediately. Engineering teams isolated the exploit vector and deployed remediation measures to prevent further exposure. The platform was moved into maintenance mode as a containment step.

A leading external security firm, along with additional independent partners, was brought in to conduct a full code-level audit.

SecondFi confirmed it will not resume normal operations until those reviews are complete. That position reflects a deliberate effort to prioritize user safety over operational speed.

Through emergency rescue measures, SecondFi successfully secured approximately 129 million ADA as part of broader containment efforts.

All recovered assets are currently held securely while the recovery process continues. A dedicated restoration fund has already been established to support reimbursement.

EMURGO confirmed in its statement that wallet address mapping has been completed, allowing recovery to move into the next phase. Affected users will receive direct guidance through official channels on the steps required to safely restore access.

Critical Warnings for Affected Users

SecondFi issued a firm security warning to all affected wallet holders following the breach. Compromised wallets must be treated as permanently compromised at the address and private key level. Simply restoring a seed phrase in another wallet application will not eliminate the security risk.

Users are strongly advised not to independently move assets or attempt to migrate compromised wallets on their own.

Taking unilateral action could expose them to further loss or secondary exploits. The official recovery process is the only safe path forward for affected accounts.

SecondFi and EMURGO confirmed that a structured, verification-based claim process is being developed. While that process may take additional time, it is designed to ensure accuracy and security throughout. Affected users are directed to follow @secondfiapp on X for all official updates.

The incident drew a coordinated response from across the Cardano ecosystem. Founding entities, partners, and community members mobilized quickly to support containment efforts. That collective response helped limit broader network risk during a critical period.

Bitcoin BTC$59,710.38 could be approaching a major turning point after a rare combination of onchain indicators flashed signals that have historically coincided with market bottoms, according to Chris Sullivan, co-founder and portfolio manager at digital asset hedge fund Hyperion Decimus.

In a recent report, the hedge fund explained that four proprietary onchain signals have aligned only five times during bitcoin’s 15-year history. Each previous occurrence marked a cycle bottom, although Sullivan cautioned that this time still lacks final technical confirmation.

“We have literally like every box checked, except for a final pattern,” Sullivan said in an interview with CoinDesk. “Either we have to break above the $82,000 pivot to confirm, or we have one final low, call it between $54,000 and $57,000. Perhaps a wick to $48,000 to capitulate. One of those two conditions we expect to happen in the next 90 days.”

If either scenario unfolds, Sullivan believes bitcoin could quickly diverge from broader financial markets. The crypto asset is trading at $59,386 after losing 23% over the past month, extending its divergence from U.S. equities, which had climbed to record highs before also coming under pressure this month.

Bitcoin options traders remain heavily positioned for downside protection, with both crypto-native and exchange-traded fund investors showing elevated demand for downside hedges, according to new research by Anchorage Digital’s head of research, David Lawant.

The report analyzed options activity across Deribit, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Strategy (MSTR), saying the three markets together provide a broader view of crypto-native, institutional and retail investor sentiment than any single options market alone.

Both Deribit and IBIT options markets showed elevated put skew, indicating traders are paying a premium for downside protection rather than positioning for further gains. The report found defensive positioning ranked in the 82nd percentile of IBIT’s history and the 84th percentile of Deribit’s five-year history.

Anchorage also found that Bitcoin (BTC) options markets have spent nearly half of 2026 pricing higher implied volatility over the next week than over the next month, an unusual inversion that has historically been episodic and short-lived. The report attributed the pattern to a succession of macroeconomic, geopolitical and crypto-specific catalysts that have kept traders focused on near-term risks.

Bitcoin options 30-day/7-day implied volatility ratio. Source: Anchorage Digital report

Taken together, the findings suggest options traders remain focused on managing near-term risks rather than positioning for a clear directional move. Lawant said he is watching for one-month implied volatility to once again exceed one-week implied volatility, a shift he said would indicate markets are becoming more comfortable looking beyond immediate risks.

Related: Bitcoin price is down over 40% since STRC launched: Is Strategy ‘fine’?

Options market not signaling Strategy crisis

The analysis from Anchorage Digital also suggests investors remain cautious but are not pricing a severe downside scenario for Strategy despite recent weakness in the company’s preferred and common shares.

Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock, STRC, fell as low as $82.53 on June 22, or about 17% below its $100 par value, before partially recovering after the company disclosed it had increased its fiat reserves to $1.3 billion. As of Thursday, it was trading around $77, roughly 23% below par.

The weakness has extended beyond STRC. Strategy’s common shares (MSTR) were down about 78% over the past year and traded around $87 on Thursday, according to Yahoo Finance data.

Strategy stock. Source: Yahoo Finance

Despite the sell-off, Anchorage found that Strategy’s options market remains well below stress levels seen during previous market corrections. While traders continue to hedge against downside risk, put skew has not reached levels typically associated with fears of forced deleveraging or a broader crisis, according to the report.

Strategy, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, pioneered the corporate Bitcoin treasury model in 2020 and remains the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with 847,363 BTC on its balance sheet.

30-day risk reversals in Strategy (MSTR) options markets. Source: Anchorage Digital report

Magazine: Bitcoin decouples from tech stocks, Ether eyes ‘selling wave’: Market Moves

Key takeaways:

• Surging spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and a put-heavy options expiry point to fading institutional demand.
• Risk-reward shifts toward tech stocks, leaving crypto traders to seek catalysts beyond macroeconomic tailwinds.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded down 9% in three days, hitting its lowest level since September 2024. The $58,000 retest triggered over $1 billion in liquidations across bullish BTC leveraged positions. Despite a modest recovery to $59,500, Bitcoin traders remain uneasy as the S&P 500 index and gold prices fully erased their intraday losses.

Bitcoin/USD (orange) vs. gold/USD & Nasdaq 100 futures (green). Source: TradingView

The market downturn on Thursday lined up with the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which showed a 4.1% increase in May from the prior year. Yet as Crude Brent oil prices pulled back to $75 from $95 just one month earlier, investors grew more confident that inflation had peaked. As a result, the cash freed up by lower energy costs is boosting the stock market.

Shares of Micron, Sandisk, Applied Materials. Source: TradingView

The tech sector kept delivering strong surprises, with Micron Technology (MU) jumping 16% after solid quarterly earnings and Sandisk (SNDK) riding along with an 18% gain. Applied Materials (AMAT) rose 10% thanks to its new chipmaking tools. Investors’ renewed faith in the sector also mirrors the US government administration’s recent emphasis.

Fixed income offers a more compelling hedge alternative

Even if Bitcoin does not directly compete with the artificial intelligence sector, traders’ risk-reward views have likely tilted toward stocks. This shift followed the US government taking a 9.9% stake in Intel, proposing $2 billion for quantum computing firms, opening federal lands for data center projects, and setting a framework for “frontier models” releases.

Investors worried about inflated AI valuations after Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) shares fell 32% from their peak can find comfort in 5-year US Treasuries yielding 4.15%. Demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin faded as traders now see an 80% chance of US interest rate hikes by December, up from 68% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue

Bitcoin’s appeal also took a hit from the massive $469 million net outflows in spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Wednesday. The metric serves as a key proxy for institutional demand. Sentiment worsened further as Strategy (MSTR) now sits on a huge unrealized loss after buying $64.1 billion worth of Bitcoin since 2020.

Related: 21shares trims 2026 crypto forecasts despite institutional adoption gains

Strategy (MSTR) Bitcoin reserves and cash position, USD. Source: Strategy

The upcoming $13 billion Bitcoin options expiry on Friday heavily favors put (sell) instruments. Most neutral-to-bullish strategies will likely expire worthless, since 78% of call (buy) options are priced at $72,000 or above. Put options open interest on Deribit will exceed call options by $3.4 billion.

Bitcoin’s price momentum shows little tie to stocks due to heavy ETF outflows, a bearish options expiry skew and Strategy’s mounting unrealized losses. Bitcoin traders must now hunt for unique catalysts beyond equity market tailwinds to spark a turnaround.