Andy Burnham may be heading for Number 10, but new polling reveals he leaves a powerful regional legacy behind. Polling from FocalData for Hope Not Hate, shows that Mr Burnham departed the Greater Manchester mayoralty with an exceptionally strong personal mandate, retaining a massive 65% approval rating from residents who believe he did a ‘fairly well’ or ‘very well’ job in office.
The polling shows that Mr Burnham’s success in Greater Manchester has seemingly left a deep reservoir of local goodwill. His success in the city-region has been a springboard for his national ambitions.
Looking closer at his track record, Burnham’s signature public transport reforms emerge as his crowning achievement, with a staggering 77% of residents agreeing he did well, compared to just 17% who felt he did badly. He also held comfortable majorities for his handling of policing and fire services at 56%, and economic growth at 53%. The public gave him narrower margins of success on complex social issues, with healthcare drawing a tighter 50% to 35% split, and housing and homelessness landing at a more divisive 45% approval against 39% disapproval.
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The polling comes as the election campaign to replace Mr Burnham gets under way. Labour has selected Manchester council leader Bev Craig as its candidate for the July 30 contest.
Craig, who has led the council since 2021, is regarded as a close ally of Burnham and will seek to present herself as the candidate of continuity after nearly a decade of Labour control of the mayoralty.
Following the announcement Coun Craig said: “Greater Manchester is a special place – from the industrial revolution, the trade union and cooperative movements and the suffragettes – this place has always fought for progress. This place changed my life and I owe it everything. It gave me opportunities I could never have imagined, and I’ve spent my career trying to give something back.”
Reform UK is yet to formally announce its candidate, although party figures are increasingly confident they can mount a serious challenge after strong performances across Greater Manchester in recent elections. Dan Barker has emerged as a leading contender for the nomination.
The Green Party has selected Trafford councillor Geraldine Coggins, who is hoping to build on the party’s recent advances in Greater Manchester and position herself as an alternative to both Labour and Reform.
The Liberal Democrats are also expected to contest the election, although their candidate had not been formally announced when this article was published.
The new poll also shows that Labour and Reform UK are separated by just three points in Greater Manchester. The survey, carried out by FocalData on behalf of campaign group Hope Not Hate, found Labour on 33.2 per cent of first preference support, with Reform UK close behind on 30.1 per cent. The Greens were third on 12.5 per cent, followed by the Conservatives on 11.1 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 7.6 per cent.
The poll of 1,143 people was conducted between May 22 and June 5 and weighted to be representative of Greater Manchester’s population. With a sample of 1,143, the poll carries a margin of error of approximately three percentage points, making it a potential dead-heat in the first round. The FocalData poll was conducted before all candidates have officially declared, which helps explain the volatile margins.
Following his decisive victory in the Ashton-in-Makerfield by-election Mr Burnham is now expected to be the next Prime Minister after Sir Keir Starmer announced he was stepping down this week. There are not expected to be any other challengers in the leadership election meaning a ‘coronation’ is expected in mid-July. The chancellor Rachel Reeves today told the BBC that she is “backing” Andy Burnham to be the UK’s next prime minister amid speculation she could be replaced as Chancellor if he takes office.
Speaking to the BBC, Ms Reeves, who is predicted to be replaced if Mr Burnham becomes prime minister, would not be drawn on reports she may accept another role. “I’m not going to pre-empt the decisions that the new prime minister will make,” she said. “I’m backing Andy. “I think he’d be a great prime minister, but those are his decisions, not mine to make.”


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