Experts Dispute Putin’s Ukraine War Victory Predictions

Vladimir Putin’s victory against Ukraine is not inevitable, according to war experts, no matter what he tells Donald Trump.

The US president is currently trying to negotiate a quick end to the conflict, even if it means rewarding Russia for its aggression and causing major upset in Europe.

Trump told POLITICO that Russia is unquestionably in the stronger negotiating position right now and has “always” had the upper hand because it’s a “much bigger country” and “much stronger in that sense”.

While praising Ukraine for its “bravery and for the fighting and all of that”, the US president insisted that “at some point, size will win”.

These are clear Kremlin talking points which Putin and his team have been parroting ever since launching the invasion in February 2022.

But Trump is overlooking how, after almost four years of intense fighting, Putin still controls only a fifth of Ukraine’s sovereign territory – despite wanting to take it over entirely.

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank warned that the Kremlin is trying to achieve several of Putin’s maximalist war aims through a negotiated settlement with Trump right now because “Russian forces are currently unable to achieve them on the battlefield”.

While Putin was dragging his feet over Trump’s attempts to negotiate, he appeared to agree to the US’s 28-point peace plan which was leaked over November.

That proposal has since been watered down amid European worries it was too pro-Russia and concerns that Moscow had a hand in writing it.

The Kremlin has still offered no concessions to Ukraine in the war and has not agreed to any peace deal with America.

But, as the ISW points out, Russia is more willing to talk because of its battlefield woes.

“Russian forces have gained 0.77% of Ukrainian territory since the start of 2025 while suffering disproportionately high personnel costs,” the specialists wrote in a post on X.

“Russia resources are not endless, as Putin is trying to assert, and Putin currently appears to be facing difficult decision points regarding the strategy sustainment of Russian force generation.”

The experts speculated that Putin is trying to offset Russia’s “near-exhaustion of voluntary recruitment” in 2026 by mobilising its strategic reserve.

The Russian president was hit with protests in early 2022 when he unveiled the biggest conscription drive since World War 2.

But the country has still endured more than a million military casualties over the last four years, so Putin has resorted to persistently recruiting reservists.

The ISW claimed: “The West and Ukraine can leverage the manner in which Russia’s economic, demographic, and force generation challenges compound over time to force Putin to grapple with challenging decision points at home sooner than he would like.

“The US can use such an approach to build leverage against Russia to compel Putin to come to the negotiating table and offer concessions to end the war in Ukraine.”

Keir Starmer hosted the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Friedrich Merz in Downing Street on Monday in a bid to find a new solution to end the war amid the growing pressure from Trump.

Ukraine is set to unveil a new peace deal and present it to the US administration soon, although its success will hinge on whether the Kremlin accepts any of its terms.