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F&O Talk: Mid, smallcaps to continue outperformance as Q1 begins, says Sudeep Shah; outlines Kalyan Jewellers, TCS strategy

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F&O Talk: Mid, smallcaps to continue outperformance as Q1 begins, says Sudeep Shah; outlines Kalyan Jewellers, TCS strategy
The Indian stock market recorded strong gains on Friday, with the Sensex and Nifty rising more than 1% each as in-line earnings from IT heavyweight TCS, positive global cues and other factors boosted investor sentiment.

The Sensex jumped 828 points to close at 77,569, while the Nifty 50 advanced over 244 points to end the session at 24,206, extending gains for the second consecutive session. Meanwhile, India VIX, which measures market volatility, fell another 8% to 12.33.

Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and IT, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:

Nifty started the week on a strong note, but the resumption of the conflict erased those gains. How do the charts look now, and what are the key levels to watch?

For the fourth consecutive trading session, the benchmark index Nifty continued to exhibit signs of uncertainty. This indecisiveness is clearly reflected on the weekly chart, where the index has formed a small-bodied candle with shadows on both ends for the fourth straight week. Such a candle formation highlights the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears, making this one of the most prolonged phases of indecision witnessed in recent months. But beneath this prolonged indecision, subtle shifts are beginning to emerge that could determine the market’s next meaningful move.

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In sharp contrast to the benchmark index, the broader market continues to display remarkable resilience. Both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 are significantly outperforming the frontline indices. The Nifty Midcap 100 scaled a fresh all-time high during the week, while the Nifty is still nearly 8% below its lifetime peak. Meanwhile, the Nifty Smallcap 100 is just a stone’s throw away from registering a new all-time high. We continue to believe that the broader market is well positioned to sustain its relative outperformance in the near term.

Coming back to the benchmark index, the Nifty continues to oscillate around its key moving averages, which have flattened due to the prolonged sideways movement. Momentum indicators and oscillators are also echoing the same view. Both the daily and weekly RSI remain range-bound, while the daily ADX has slipped to 12.05 and continues to trend lower, indicating the absence of meaningful strength in either direction.


Going ahead, the 24,500–24,550 zone is likely to act as an important hurdle for the index, while the 23,950–23,900 zone remains a crucial support area. A decisive breakout or breakdown beyond these levels could mark the beginning of the next directional move.

The Nifty IT index rallied sharply after TCS’ earnings. What do the technicals suggest for the sector going forward?

Despite the pullback from the 25,699 low recorded on July 1, the broader technical structure of the Nifty IT Index remains weak. The index continues to trade below its key moving averages on the weekly timeframe, indicating that the primary trend remains under pressure.
From a relative strength perspective, the index has moved from the Lagging quadrant to the Improving quadrant on the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG), suggesting that momentum is gradually building. However, it continues to lack relative strength, indicating that sustained outperformance is yet to emerge. Reinforcing the cautious outlook, the MACD remains below both the zero line and the signal line, highlighting the absence of meaningful bullish momentum.Historically, the 26,200–26,100 zone has acted as a strong demand area. Between June 2022 and April 2023, the index witnessed multiple rebounds from this region, making it a critical long-term support zone.

While intermittent pullbacks and short-covering rallies cannot be ruled out, a meaningful trend reversal is unlikely unless the index decisively reclaims the 29,000–29,100 zone, which also coincides with the previous swing high. Until then, the broader technical bias is expected to remain cautious, with any relief rally likely to face selling pressure at higher levels.

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What is your technical view on TCS, Infosys and Kalyan Jewellers? What strategy would you recommend for traders?

TCS: The stock continues to trade below its key short- and long-term moving averages, indicating that the primary trend remains weak. The RSI is hovering in the 40–45 zone, reflecting subdued momentum, while the rising ADX suggests that the prevailing bearish trend is strengthening with no clear signs of a reversal yet. Additionally, the MACD remains well below the zero line, reinforcing the negative bias. As long as the stock trades below the Rs 2,170–2,180 zone, the bearish outlook is likely to persist. Traders should avoid aggressive long positions and wait for a decisive breakout above this resistance before turning constructive.

Infosys: The stock attempted to move above its 20-day EMA on three occasions during the week but failed to sustain higher levels, closing lower each time. The stock continues to trade below its key short- and long-term moving averages on both the daily and weekly timeframes, highlighting the prevailing weakness. The weekly RSI remains below the 40 mark, indicating weak momentum and the absence of strong buying interest. As long as the stock remains below the Rs 1,110–1,120 zone, the bearish bias is likely to continue. Traders should maintain a cautious stance until the stock reclaims this resistance zone convincingly.

Kalyan Jewellers: Shares have registered a fresh consolidation breakout on the weekly chart, backed by a sharp rise in trading volumes, lending credibility to the breakout. The RSI has climbed above the 60 mark, signalling strengthening bullish momentum. The stock has also closed above the upper Bollinger Band, a characteristic often observed during strong trending moves. As long as the stock sustains above the Rs 425–430 zone, the bullish bias is likely to remain intact. Traders may consider buying on dips while maintaining a stop-loss below this support zone.

With the earnings season gaining momentum, should traders focus more on index F&O or stock-specific opportunities? How should they approach the next few weeks?

With the earnings season gaining momentum, we believe traders should focus more on stock-specific opportunities rather than index-based trades over the next few weeks. Over the last couple of months, the broader market has consistently outperformed the frontline indices, with several midcap and smallcap stocks witnessing strong momentum and delivering meaningful breakouts. In contrast, benchmark indices such as Nifty and Sensex continue to trade in a sideways range, reflecting a lack of clear directional conviction.

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As earnings announcements gather pace, stock-specific volatility is likely to increase, creating opportunities driven by earnings surprises, management commentary, and sector-specific developments. Therefore, traders should adopt a selective approach and focus on stocks exhibiting strong relative strength, positive price structures, and favorable earnings prospects, as they are likely to offer better risk-reward opportunities than taking directional bets on range-bound indices.

What is the India VIX signalling about market volatility and sentiment for the coming week?

India VIX continues to trade below its key short- and long-term moving averages, indicating that overall market volatility remains under control. Although the volatility index surged nearly 26% on 8th July, when the Nifty plunged over 500 points and triggered a brief wave of panic, it has gradually cooled off over the past two sessions, coinciding with the recovery in the benchmark index.

Since peaking at 28.90 on 30th March 2026 amid heightened geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, India VIX has been forming a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, reflecting a steady decline in fear and uncertainty. This easing in volatility has provided significant support to the broader market.

Technically, the 10.00–10.30 zone is a crucial support for India VIX. A sustained move below this range would indicate further moderation in volatility and could help the equity markets remain stable. On the upside, the 15.30–15.50 zone is expected to act as the immediate resistance.

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Overall, the current trend in India VIX suggests that market sentiment remains constructive, and the broader market is likely to stay steady in the coming week, provided there are no adverse developments that trigger a fresh bout of risk aversion or a short-term knee-jerk reaction.

Which stocks are looking technically strong for next week, and why?

Technically, Godrej Properties, DLF, Prestige Estates, Chennai Petroleum, PNB Housing Finance, and Indian Hotels are looking strong for the coming week. These stocks are exhibiting positive price structures, strong relative strength, and bullish momentum, making them well placed to outperform the broader market in the near term.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Australia Confirms Its First Mass Death of Seabirds From H5N1 Bird Flu, Warns of Wider Spread to Come

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Egg

Australia confirmed its first mass mortality event linked to the H5N1 bird flu virus on Monday, after the disease killed approximately 50 greater crested terns off the coast south of Adelaide, prompting federal officials to warn that further spread among the country’s wildlife is now likely.

Agriculture Minister Julie Collins told reporters in Canberra that testing had confirmed H5N1 bird flu in a group of 49 dead and 35 sick terns discovered by helicopter surveillance on rocks off Cape Jaffa, located roughly 250 kilometers, or 155 miles, from Adelaide, following the survey conducted Friday. “This is the first confirmed case of a mass mortality,” Collins said. She warned that additional wildlife losses should now be expected as the virus continues moving through Australia’s bird populations. “Australians should expect to see more spread and larger numbers now of wildlife being affected,” Collins said. “Once the H5 bird flu is spreading in wildlife and the natural environment, it is not possible to avoid significant losses, which is what we’re starting to see now.”

Despite the confirmed mass mortality event among wild seabirds, Collins said there remains no evidence of the virus having reached Australia’s commercial farms. Many poultry operations across the country have implemented lockdown measures to protect their flocks since H5N1 was first detected in Australia in June. Australia’s total confirmed case count now stands at 74, spread across a geographic range including Western Australia and Queensland, though Collins said the majority of cases to date have occurred within South Australia specifically.

Australia and New Zealand had spent years preparing for the eventual arrival of H5N1, implementing measures including tighter biosecurity protocols at farms, expanded testing of shorebird populations, vaccination programs for particularly vulnerable species, and formal war-gaming exercises to simulate the country’s response to an outbreak. New Zealand recorded its own first confirmed H5N1 case last month, following a similar pattern of the virus eventually reaching a country that had previously remained free of the disease despite years of preparation.

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The H5N1 strain has caused devastating losses to bird and mammal populations globally in recent years, killing hundreds of millions of birds and mammals worldwide and causing billions of dollars in losses to poultry farmers internationally. The virus has also infected cattle herds in the United States and has repeatedly left beaches littered with the corpses of dead birds and seals in various countries where outbreaks have occurred.

While H5N1 bird flu can infect humans who come into direct contact with infected animals, the total number of confirmed human cases worldwide remains small, and public health officials continue to characterize the overall risk to humans as low under current circumstances. Even so, health authorities in affected countries generally advise the public to avoid direct contact with sick or dead wild birds and to report unusual wildlife mortality events to relevant agricultural or wildlife authorities.

Australia had previously been considered one of the last major regions in the world without a confirmed H5N1 detection, given the country’s geographic isolation and the extensive biosecurity preparations undertaken in the years leading up to the virus’s eventual arrival. The confirmation of Monday’s mass mortality event among greater crested terns marks a significant escalation from earlier, more isolated case detections reported since the virus first appeared in the country in June, signaling that the outbreak has now progressed into the kind of larger-scale wildlife mortality event officials had long anticipated once the virus became established within Australia’s wild bird populations.

Wildlife and agricultural authorities are expected to continue closely monitoring the situation in the coming weeks, tracking both the geographic spread of confirmed cases and the scale of mortality among affected wild bird species, while maintaining heightened biosecurity measures at commercial poultry operations to prevent the virus from crossing over into farmed flocks. Given the pattern seen in other countries following the virus’s initial establishment in wild bird populations, officials are bracing for the possibility of additional mass mortality events affecting other vulnerable native species across Australia’s coastal and inland regions in the months ahead.

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Two 7%+ Yielding ETFs You Can Hold Through Anything

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Two 7%+ Yielding ETFs You Can Hold Through Anything

Two 7%+ Yielding ETFs You Can Hold Through Anything

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Apple: Why The Price Slump Was Deserved

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Apple: Why The Price Slump Was Deserved

Apple: Why The Price Slump Was Deserved

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Industry seeking to eliminate ‘patchwork’ of state food ingredient laws

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Industry seeking to eliminate ‘patchwork’ of state food ingredient laws

Groups urge Congress to create a single national standard for ingredient review, use and labeling.

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Apple biometric lawsuit: $32.5bn class action cleared

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Apple biometric lawsuit: $32.5bn class action cleared

Apple faces a class action worth up to $32.5 billion over the collection of biometric information from users of its Photos app, after the US Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit on Thursday denied the company’s appeal against a ruling certifying the class.

As many as 6.5 million consumers in the US state of Illinois could seek $5,000 each in damages, on the basis that Apple illegally collected their biometric information through a facial-recognition feature without proper notice, consent or retention policies.

The claimants allege Apple collected their biometric data without consent in violation of the Illinois Biometric Information Privacy Act, a state law passed in 2008 owing to concerns about how emerging technology was increasingly collecting and using biometric identifiers such as retina or iris scans, fingerprints, voiceprints or faceprints that are biologically unique to an individual.

The law bans companies from collecting a person’s biometric information unless they first provide notice and obtain the person’s written consent.

Plaintiffs in the class action allege that Apple’s Photos app, which comes pre-installed on Apple devices, automatically uses facial-recognition technology to scan individual faces and create a unique “faceprint” for each person detected in the user’s photo library.

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They claim that once the software has a sufficient sampling of images, the Photos app then applies an algorithm to identify the iPhone user, creating biometric information that is stored on the device and catalogued in the app.

In 2017, Apple began syncing photographs and associated data across multiple Apple devices, if those devices were logged into iCloud with the user’s Apple ID. Plaintiffs claim that this data is biometric information under the Illinois law, and that the company collects and stores the biometric information on its servers.

Apple has sought to have the case thrown out, arguing that whether the alleged data qualifies as biometric identifiers or information depends on individualised proof about each user’s choices and labels.

The company has said the Photos app has privacy safeguards, so that the numerical vectors it uses to organise photo albums cannot recreate a face and are not inherently linked to a person’s name or identity. Apple said it cannot access vector data, does not decrypt or use album labels, and does not know who appears in a user’s albums, whether any album is labelled, or what any label says.

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In June an Illinois judge ruled that consumers had met the requirements to pursue a class action. Thursday’s appeal court decision leaves that certification in place.

Andrew Schlichter, lawyer for the plaintiffs, told The Times: “The allegation that Apple created faceprints of people appearing in photos, including children, and stored those faceprints on its cloud-based servers — without obtaining consent or telling device users what it was doing — raises serious privacy concerns. We are pleased with the court’s decision to certify a class, which means that Apple will have to answer for its alleged conduct as to all affected Illinois citizens.”

Apple was contacted for comment.

The case is the latest legal and regulatory pressure on the company’s handling of user data and its control of mobile platforms. Apple last year withdrew its Advanced Data Protection encryption tool from UK iCloud users rather than meet a Home Office request for access, and the Competition and Markets Authority has said it will take action against Apple and Google over their mobile platforms.

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Regulators elsewhere have also turned to consumer data cases. The Information Commissioner’s Office fined the genetic testing firm 23andMe £2.31 million over a data breach affecting UK residents.

 


Jamie Young

Jamie Young

Jamie Young is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, covering SME finance, employment law and Westminster policy since 2016. He has reported on every Budget and Autumn Statement since 2018, helped make sense of the ‘covid era’ and the bounce-back loan scheme from launch through the fraud investigations, and broke the magazine’s coverage of the 2024 late-payment reforms. He joined Business Matters straight from completing his BA in Administration from Exeter University and is NCTJ-qualified. Reach him at jyoung@cbmeg.co.uk

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Fashion chain New Look names new chief executive

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Lynda Petherick joined the Weymouth-headquartered retailer in 2024

A New Look store

A New Look store(Image: GNP)

Fashion chain New Look has appointed a new boss as it revealed its earnings were buoyed by having fewer discounts and tighter control over costs, while its loyalty programme topped a million members.

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The high street retailer, which is headquartered in Weymouth and has 309 shops in the UK, has named Lynda Petherick as its new chief executive officer.

She will take over from Helen Connolly who leaves in late September to head up Asda’s fashion and homeware business George.

Ms Petherick joined New Look as its chief information officer in 2024, before being promoted to chief operating officer in 2025, leading work to accelerate its use of data and technology and transform digital channels.

Online shopping now makes up about 40 per cent of total revenues, and New Look is the UK’s third-largest online women’s fashion retailer, according to the company.

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The business’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) more than doubled to £36.6m in the year to the end of March, from £14.3m the year before.

Digital sales increased by 1.6 per cent year-on-year.

New Look said this was helped by more disciplined cost management against rising costs, reduced discounting and improved stock quality, resulting in a higher proportion of products sold at full price.

It comes after New Look shut 15 of its shops in the UK last year and announced that it was shutting all 26 shops in the Republic of Ireland in the face of squeezed consumer spending.

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The company has completed a refinancing of its loan facilities to 2029 which it said will provide some flexibility and support selective investment into its digital channels and shops.

Trading has also improved over more recent months with Ebitda coming in at £17.4m between April and June, up £1.8m on the same period a year ago.

The retailer said its customers had been responding well to recent products and new collections such as denim, dresses, knitwear and footwear.

It also revealed that more than a million members were now part of its loyalty programme, Club New Look, which offers weekly discounts and early access to sales.

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Members shop around seven times more frequently and spend about 9.5 times more annually on average than non-members, according to the firm.

New Look’s chairman Mike Coupe said the retailer was “in a stronger position than it has been for many years”.

He added: “The board is delighted to appoint Lynda as chief executive.

“She combines strong commercial judgment and operational discipline with a deep understanding of our customers, our brand and the role that data and technology will play in our future.”

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Ms Petherick said New Look was a “fantastic brand” with “millions of loyal customers”.

“Over the past two years, we have made significant progress in strengthening the business and becoming a faster, more data-led and customer-focused organisation,” she said.

“I am excited about what New Look can achieve and look forward to working with our brilliant teams to build on the strong progress already made and deliver the next phase of sustainable, profitable growth.”

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Hershey planning ‘action-packed’ second half of 2026

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Hershey planning ‘action-packed’ second half of 2026

Investment in new products and seasonal promotions expected to boost sales.

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Ingersoll Rand Q2: Profitability Took A Hit, But There Are Ways It Can Come Back

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Ingersoll Rand Q2: Profitability Took A Hit, But There Are Ways It Can Come Back

Ingersoll Rand Q2: Profitability Took A Hit, But There Are Ways It Can Come Back

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The furious dispute over what caused Air India flight 171 to crash

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In theory, the inquiry should be impartial and informative – a learning process focused solely on improving passenger safety. But in the case of AI171, the information revealed by the investigation so far has triggered a major backlash from safety campaigners, pilots’ groups and lawyers acting for the bereaved relatives.

A key factor in this has been the preliminary report issued by the AAIB a month after the accident. The 15-page document did not draw any conclusions about the causes of the crash, or make any recommendations.

Nonetheless, just two short paragraphs generated a great deal of controversy.

First, it was noted that according to the aircraft’s flight data recorder, the two fuel cutoff switches – normally used when starting the engines before a flight and shutting them down afterwards – transitioned from the run to the cutoff position seconds after take-off. This would have deprived the engines of fuel, causing them to lose thrust rapidly.

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The report then says: “In the cockpit voice recording, one of the pilots is heard asking the other why did he cutoff. The other pilot responded that he did not do so.”

This brief statement, provided without a transcript or any indication of who was speaking, sparked intense speculation about the actions of the pilots. Newsweek, for example, focused on the “troubling possibility: that a seasoned captain may have deliberately doomed his jet – and nearly 250 lives”. Former NTSB chairman Robert Sumwalt told CBS News the report showed “this was not a problem with the airplane or the engines. Instead…somebody in the cockpit shut the fuel off to those engines.”

A few days later, The Wall Street Journal weighed in. Citing people familiar with the matter, it claimed that recordings of dialogue between the pilots suggested it was the Captain, Sumeet Sabharwal, who had flipped the fuel switches.

It is important to note that this was merely a preliminary report, and within days, the AAIB issued a statement condemning “selective and unverified reporting” in the international press as “irresponsible”. It urged the public and the media to “refrain from spreading premature narratives that risk undermining the integrity of the investigative process.”

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By then, arguably, the damage had already been done.

“When a pilot is alive he can defend himself” says Capt. CS Randhawa, president of the Federation of Indian Pilots (FIP). “When the pilot is dead, all the agencies can collude – and they put the blame on the pilot, to save the manufacturer. And this is seen the world over. It’s not the first time”.

His organisation, which represents around 6,000 pilots, condemned the preliminary report as “irrevocably compromised”. Together with Sumeet Sabharwal’s 91-year-old father, Pushkar Raj Sabharwal, they took their concerns to India’s Supreme Court, demanding a judicial investigation into the crash.

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Ooredoo H1 2026 slides: margin expansion, strategic gains offset Q2 miss

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Ooredoo H1 2026 slides: margin expansion, strategic gains offset Q2 miss

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