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Rising food inflation clouds the good news on headline rates

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Inflation in September fell below target in the UK and the eurozone, and dropped to the lowest since early 2021 in the US, hurray!

Yet, another common trend that matters a lot for households went largely unnoticed: food inflation ended its steady decline and ticked up.

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In the UK, inflation of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose to 1.9 per cent from 1.3 per cent in September, marking the first increase since March 2023, according to official data published this week.

Eurozone food inflation for the same period increased 0.1 percentage point to 1.6 per cent, following no change in August and 16 months of almost uninterrupted decline, official data showed on Thursday.

And in the US, annual food inflation in September rose to 2.3 per cent per cent from 2.1 per cent in the previous month, the largest increase since August 2022.

This comes as wholesale food prices stopped declining at the start of the year and started rising again, according to the FAO index. Trends in food wholesale prices lag consumer prices by a few months as items flow through the supply chain, so what’s coming is not encouraging.

In September, the FAO Food Price Index rose to 124.4 in September 2024, up 3 per cent from August, which marked the largest month-on-month increase since March 2022. Price quotations for all commodities included in the index strengthened, with the increases ranging from 0.4 per cent for the meat price index to 10.4 per cent for sugar, it explained.

“The reasons that food prices are rising again are mainly climate related,” said Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist at T Rowe Price.

The FAO goes into more detail, quoting worsening crop prospects in Brazil following prolonged dry weather and fires that damaged sugarcane fields in late August, as the main drivers of the increase in global sugar prices. Concerns over lower-than-expected production in major Southeast Asian producing countries were behind the rise in international palm oil price increases. Excessively wet conditions in Canada and the EU caused wheat harvest delays and a sizeable cut to production, pushing up wheat prices.  

For policymakers the rise in food inflation matters as “consumers form their inflation expectations based on food price inflation because this is a repeated transaction they face every week,” said Wieladek. This is in line with a paper published by the Bank of England last week that found “over 60 per cent of households report that their inflation perceptions are heavily influenced by food prices”.

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Inflation expectations matter for spending behaviour and wage demand. Higher food prices have a disproportionate effect on households because there is little scope to avoid buying groceries, and because what you spend on subsistence comes out of what you can spend on other things.

Admittedly, September’s food inflation was small and barely visible in a chart where food inflation dropped from double-digit heights. However, it will add to much higher price levels than three years ago. In the UK, food prices are about one-third higher than at the start of 2021, they are nearly 30 per cent above that level in the eurozone and 23 per cent up in the US.

A bottle of olive oil in the UK, for example, cost on average £3.50 in early 2021, but now costs £9.20, according to the ONS. These are increases that many people have not experienced before.

And now the trend could be up.

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Claus Vistesen, economist at the consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics thinks that eurozone food inflation “is now likely rising slightly consistent with a lagged response to surveyed selling price expectations.”

“We think food inflation will rise gradually from here on, but slowly.”

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Final video of Yahya Sinwar transfixes Gaza

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Screen grab from drone footage that the Israeli military says shows Sinwar sitting alone in a blown-up apartment, with one hand severely injured and his head covered in a traditional scarf, throwing a stick at the approaching drone shortly before his death in Rafah, southern Gaza

For months, Israel has portrayed the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar as holed up in the militant group’s fortified tunnel network under Gaza, shielding himself from Israeli bombs.

But when many Palestinians in the strip watched the Israeli drone footage of Sinwar’s killing, they saw the Hamas chief above ground, dressed in military fatigues and with one arm partially severed, using his remaining hand to attack the drone with the only weapon he had — a stick.

“Even people who were angry about Hamas, when they saw . . . he had been killed during clashes and not hiding in a tunnel, as Israel was always claiming, they felt sorry and sad for him,” said Mohammed Sobeh, speaking from Khan Younis in Gaza.

“Sinwar’s death will raise his popularity.” 

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Many Gazans blame the Hamas chief for inciting Israel’s wrath with the October 7 attack that killed 1,200 people in Israel, according to Israeli officials, and triggered the devastating Gaza war. They say Sinwar provoked Israel into unleashing the greatest catastrophe on Palestinians since 1948. 

Israel’s assault has killed about 42,500 people in Gaza, according to health authorities in the shattered strip, which is now stalked by the threat of famine and disease.

But the footage of Sinwar’s final moments on Thursday looked to many in Gaza like a defiant last stand against Israel, eclipsing some of the criticism he faced from Palestinians. 

Since Sinwar’s killing, “what I’ve heard and seen is that, again, most of the Palestinians in Gaza have a lot of respect for him,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, associate professor of political science at Gaza’s Al-Azhar University, now visiting scholar at Northwestern University in Illinois, US. 

“They think he just died fighting in the frontline of the battle against Israel, like many other Hamas fighters,” he said. “Criticism of Sinwar just disappeared completely today.” 

Arabic social media has been filled with praise from Hamas supporters for the ruthless militant leader. “Sinwar was martyred on the ground of Rafah in the heart of the battle,” Youssef Issa Abu Medhat said. “He was not pulled from the tunnels. He was not arrested in his underwear.”

Abbas Araghchi, foreign minister of Iran, which supports Hamas, said on X that Sinwar “bravely fought to the very end on the battlefield”. “His fate — beautifully pictured in his last image — is not a deterrent but a source of inspiration for resistance fighters across the region,” he wrote, adding a still image of Sinwar from the drone video.

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The reaction in Israel to the dramatic news of Sinwar’s death, which included the grainy drone footage and a graphic image of the Hamas leader’s lifeless body amid the ruins of a bombed-out house, was sharply different.

Screen grab from drone footage that the Israeli military says shows Sinwar sitting alone in a blown-up apartment, with one hand severely injured and his head covered in a traditional scarf, throwing a stick at the approaching drone shortly before his death in Rafah, southern Gaza
Screen grab from drone footage that the Israeli military says shows Sinwar sitting alone in a blown-up apartment shortly before his death © Israel Army/AFP/Getty Images
IDF soldiers carry the body of what is thought to be Sinwar from the building where he was killed in Rafah, southern Gaza, on Thursday © IDF

Across the country, a sense of jubilation broke out over news that the architect of the deadliest attack on the Jewish people since the Holocaust had been killed. Israeli authorities were also quick to emphasise that no hostages seized by Hamas on October 7 were in the area or harmed.

On the streets and in messages shared on WhatsApp and other platforms, the dominant emotion was one of satisfaction that Israel had “brought justice” to its biggest nemesis, as defence minister Yoav Gallant put it.

The Israeli military also offered a different interpretation of Sinwar’s final moments, portraying him as injured and alone, holding 40,000 shekels in cash and a pack of Mentos candy.

“Sinwar died while beaten, persecuted and on the run — he didn’t die as a commander, but as someone who only cared for himself,” Gallant said, adding that this sent a “clear message” to Israel’s other enemies as well as the Gazan people.

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The killing of Sinwar, and the assassination by Israel of many of Hamas’s other leaders, creates a power vacuum in the militant group.

Abusada said Hamas would probably struggle to replace Sinwar, while also pointing out that Israel had killed many of its previous leaders and cautioning that his death was unlikely to cause the group to collapse.

“This isn’t going to put an end to Hamas or Palestinian resistance against Israel,” he said.

People outside a collapsed building in Jabalia, northern Gaza, as they try to extricate a man trapped underneath the rubble following an Israeli bombardment on Tuesday
People outside a collapsed building in Jabalia, northern Gaza, as they try to extricate a man trapped underneath the rubble following an Israeli bombardment on Tuesday © Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP/Getty Images

But for many in Gaza, the overwhelming feeling at Sinwar’s death is neither jubilation nor grief, but simply exhaustion. 

“I thought I would feel happy if Sinwar was killed,” said Mohammad Nafiz, a 28-year-old in Khan Younis. Instead, he added, “it feels mixed and weird”.

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Sinwar’s death comes after a year of carnage in Gaza, where a renewed Israeli offensive in the north of the territory over the past two weeks has killed dozens of people every day. Israeli human rights groups say the Israeli military appears to be implementing a plan to lay siege to northern Gaza and starve out its remaining inhabitants, which Israel denies. 

“People in Gaza’s greatest concern is stopping the war,” said a 42-year-old man in northern Gaza, who asked not to be named. 

“As for the assassination of Sinwar and other Palestinian leaders, it’s expected,” he added. “This doesn’t surprise us as Palestinians. All we care about is ending the war.” 

Additional reporting by Malaika Kanaaneh Tapper

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Podcast: Maintaining old clients while bringing in the new

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Podcast: Maintaining old clients while bringing in the new




Podcast: Maintaining old clients while bringing in the new | Money Marketing

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View more on these topicsAdvisers Podcast
In this episode of The Weekend Essay, Amanda Newman Smith discusses the challenge of balancing old clients while attracting new ones. She compares the marketing of The Cure’s new album with the financial advice industry, noting the importance of evolving without losing loyal customers. Amanda also highlights the difficulties young advisers face entering the field, as firms often hesitate to hire them due to their limited experience. She argues that supporting younger talent is crucial for the future of the profession and maintaining a healthy client base. Listen now:











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FT Weekend Magazine Crossword Number 713

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Download crossword

FT.com also brings you the crossword from Monday to Saturday as well as the Weekend FT Polymath. ft.com/crossword

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Interactive crosswords on the FT app

Subscribers can now solve the FT’s Daily Cryptic, Polymath and FT Weekend crosswords on the iOS and Android apps

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Iconic Christmas character to spot on rare 50p that makes it worth 21 times face value

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Iconic Christmas character to spot on rare 50p that makes it worth 21 times face value

SPOTTING this iconic Christmas character on a 50p coin could make it worth 21 times its face value.

Each year, The Royal Mint releases a 50p coin featuring Raymond Briggs’ beloved festive character, The Snowman.

The Snowman is an iconic Christmas character.

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The Snowman is an iconic Christmas character.

Over the past seven years, the UK’s official producer of coins has released a new 50p featuring the cartoon.

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Since 2018, around 700,000 Snowman coins have been snapped up by collectors worldwide, making it a firm favourite amongst collectors.

Its latest design has already been released and features The Snowman putting a star on top of the Christmas tree.

The coins won’t be entering general circulation, meaning you will have to buy one from The Royal Mint website.

But coin collection professionals at Change Checker have said that previous editions of the 50p can sell for a pretty penny on sites such as eBay.

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For example, the Royal Mint’s 2018 edition of The Snowman coin, which features the iconic image of him flying in the sky, sold for £10.50 this Ocotber.

The 2019 edition, depicting the lovable cartoon as he comes to life, sold for £10.99 this month also.

A full breakdown of how much each sold for on eBay this month can be seen below.

  • 2018 – £10.50
  • 2019 -£10.99
  • 2020 -£9.57
  • 2021 – £8.99
  • 2022 -£8.94
  • 2023 -£8.99

Experts at Change Checker said: “The Snowman 50ps can fetch a pretty penny on the secondary market, with the 2018 and 2019 editions selling for up to 21 times their face value. “

“If this data is anything to go by, the 2024 The Snowma 50p is sure to be popular with collectors.”

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However, it is important to remember that a coin is only worth how much a buyer is willing to pay for it.

So if you are keen to flog one of your pieces online you should keep that in mind.

Character coins are a fan favourite amongst collectors.

You may have seen recently The Royal Mint released a 50p coin featuring the Gruffalo to celebrate the 20th anniversary of its books.

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The Sun recently rounded up a full list of quirky rare coins that could be worth £356, which you can check out here.

Is your small change worth a fortune?

IF you think that you might have a rare coin then you might be able to make a real mint.

The most valuable coins usually have a low mintage or an error.

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These are often deemed the most valuable by collectors.

You should check how much the coin is selling for on eBay.

Search the full name of the coin, select the “sold” listing and then toggle the search to “highest value”.

It will give you an idea of the amount of money that the coin is going for.

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You can either choose to sell the coin on eBay or through a specialist such as ChangeChecker.org.

If you choose the auction website then remember to set a minimum price that is higher or at the very least equal to the face value of the coin.

Even if your coin “sells” on eBay for a high price there’s no guarantee that the buyer will cough up.

It its terms and conditions, the auction website states that bidders enter a “legally binding contract to purchase an item”, but there’s no way to enforce this rule in reality.

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The most eBay can do is add a note to their account for the unpaid item or remove their ability to bid and buy.

How much can I buy the new Snowman coin for?

You can purchase the Snowman coins from The Royal Mint website.

Prices start from £12 for a brilliant uncirculated coin and £25 for a colour version, all the way up to £1,220 for a gold proof coin.

Collectors are also already listing the coins on eBay.

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At the moment you can find one of the brilliant uncirculated 50p coins listed for £9.49 and the coloured version for £14.99.

Also listed on the bidding site is a silver-proof coin for £109.50.

You should bear in mind that if you can still buy the coin directly from The Royal Mint website then it is unlikely you will get much more for it on eBay.

Usually, collectors buy these limited edition coins in the hope that they will go up in value as there is only a certain number of them available, but this is not always the case.

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How to spot rare coins and banknotes

Rare coins and notes hiding down the back of your sofa could sell for hundreds of pounds.

If you are lucky enough to find a rare £10 note you might be able to sell it for multiple times its face value.

You can spot rare notes by keeping an eye out for the serial numbers.

These numbers can be found on the side with the Monarch’s face, just under the value £10 in the corner of the note.

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Also if you have a serial number on your note that is quite quirky you could cash in thousands.

For example, one seller bagged £3,600 after spotting a specific serial number relating to the year Jane Austen was born on one of their notes.

You can check if your notes are worth anything on eBay, just tick “completed and sold items” and filter by the highest value.

It will give you an idea of what people are willing to pay for some notes.

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But do bear in mind that yours is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it.

This is also the case for coins, you can determine how rare your coin is by looking a the latest scarcity index.

The next step is to take a look at what has been recently sold on eBay.

Experts from Change Checker recommend looking at “sold listings” to be sure that the coin has sold for the specified amount rather than just been listed.

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Tracker shows how much each snowman coin sold for

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Tracker shows how much each snowman coin sold for

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Tobacco giants near $24bn settlement over long-running Canadian lawsuit

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The tobacco industry is close to ending a long-running Canadian lawsuit, after a court-appointed mediator for British American Tobacco, Philip Morris International and Japan Tobacco proposed a C$32.5bn ($23.6bn) settlement.

The companies have been negotiating a possible resolution to the litigation after a Quebec court ordered their Canadian subsidiaries to pay C$15.6bn damages in 2015 to compensate smokers for health problems, marking the largest damages award in the country’s history.

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PMI said on Friday that under the proposal, the settlement would be paid by its unit Rothmans, Benson & Hedges (RBH), and the Canadian units of the two other tobacco companies. The allocation of the amount between the companies in the proceedings remained unresolved, it added.

Upfront payments will be funded from cash in the companies and deposits made into court, while ongoing payments will be determined by the three companies’ profits from tobacco products in Canada. Contributions will start at 85 per cent of net profit, with a 5 per cent reduction every five years to 70 per cent after 15 years, it said.

It added that voting on the plan would happen in December and if accepted by claimants, a hearing to consider approval of the plan would be expected in the first half of next year.

The plan brings a potential end to litigation that has hung over the companies for more than two decades, and was brought on behalf of two groups of smokers, including people who had developed throat and lung cancer, and others who were addicted to nicotine. The class action suits were the first in Canada in which damages were ordered against the industry to compensate smokers for health problems.

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“After years of mediation, we welcome this important step towards the resolution of long-pending tobacco product-related litigation in Canada,” said Jacek Olczak, the chief executive PMI.

“Although important issues with the plan remain to be resolved, we are hopeful that this legal process will soon conclude, allowing RBH and its stakeholders to focus on the future,” he added.

Rae Maile, analyst at Panmure Liberum said the proposed settlement was a relief for investors, as it does not involve cost beyond Canada, and will not impact growing segments such as vaping, heat-not-burn and nicotine pouches.

“The companies will still be able to make money from these newer areas, provided that [they] get enough scale to make money,” he said.

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PMI’s announcement follows BAT’s earlier on Friday, which confirmed that a compromise and arrangement plan had been filed by a court-appointed mediator in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice, but did not disclose the details.

BAT’s unit Imperial Tobacco Canada (ITCAN), RBH and JT’s Canadian subsidiary JTI-Macdonald all filed for bankruptcy protection in 2019 soon after a Quebec court upheld the 2015 decision after the industry appealed.

“Today marks a positive step towards finding a resolution,” said BAT on Friday. “This has been a complex, confidential mediation and . . . we are hopeful of a quick conclusion to this process and securing a Canadian settlement for the benefit of all stakeholders.”

JTI-Macdonald said it had been “actively engaged in the confidential mediation” but added there were “certain critical issues that would need to be resolved if we are to find a settlement plan that is workable”.

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BAT shares were down 4 per cent on Friday.

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Etihad to boost services to Copenhagen and Dusseldorf

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Etihad to boost services to Copenhagen and Dusseldorf

Both routes will increase to daily from 1 October, 2025

Continue reading Etihad to boost services to Copenhagen and Dusseldorf at Business Traveller.

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