Bitcoin (BTC) fell to its lowest levels in over two weeks on Friday as US stocks saw pressure into the monthly close.

Key points:

• Bitcoin approaches $62,000 as daily losses hit 3.5%.
• US stocks saw no positive reactions to relief in Asia, where stocks rebounded after the semiconductor sell-off.
• Analysis warns that Bitcoin bear-market history should continue to repeat in August.

Bitcoin price targets $62,000 in month-end volatility

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD falling 3.5% to reach $62,369 on Bitstamp, a level last seen on July 14.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US stocks turned red at the open before treading water, diverging from a major relief bounce seen in Asia. There, South Korea’s KOSPI index ended the day up 17.9%, its largest single-day gain on record.

KOSPI index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“Semiconductor shares led both the sell-off and the subsequent recovery, reflecting the index’s high exposure to the global AI and memory-chip cycle,” trading company QCP Capital wrote in commentary on the latest macro market moves.

QCP noted that crypto market trading activity increased around the KOSPI gyrations, something it said “highlighted the growing relationship between crypto liquidity, regional equity positioning and broader technology-sector sentiment.” 

Both Japan and Korea reportedly engaged in currency interventions on Thursday, while Japan’s central bank kept benchmark interest rates at 1.0%, following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to stand pat on Wednesday.

Bitcoin traders see bear-market history repeating in August

BTC/USD approached the end of the monthly candle up 8.5%, marking its strongest July performance since 2022, per data from CoinGlass.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today

Previously, traders had anticipated a relief bounce for the pair lasting until August, mirroring the 2022 bear market and ultimately reaching its next long-term bottom.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, among those seeing BTC price action copying bear-market moves from four years ago, forecast that the tide might not turn immediately.

“It’s likely price will try to maintain these highs in the early stages of August but history suggests price could rollover just like it did in 2022,” he wrote in a post on X on Friday.

Rekt Capital reiterated that Bitcoin’s 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $65,820, continued to act as resistance after two failed breakouts since mid-June.

BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin price fell below $63,000 on Friday as a short-lived rebound in Asian semiconductor stocks faded, adding pressure as the cryptocurrency entered its historically weak August trading period.

Bitcoin price falls below $63K as risk assets weaken

Bitcoin traded below $63,000 after losing approximately 3% over the previous 24 hours. The decline followed renewed weakness in Asian technology shares, particularly companies tied to the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors.

Ethereum fell 2.8% to around $1,860, while Solana declined 2% to approximately $73. XRP traded near $1.06 as selling spread across large-cap cryptocurrencies.

The pullback came one day after Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rallied roughly 25%, helping South Korea’s KOSPI recover from a steep multiweek decline. That rebound initially suggested investors were returning to semiconductor stocks following heavy selling.

Momentum failed to carry into Friday, however, raising concerns that Thursday’s advance was a temporary relief rally rather than the start of a sustained recovery.

Why faltering AI stocks are weighing on crypto

Crypto assets and AI-related equities have increasingly traded as part of the same risk-sensitive market. Both sectors rely heavily on speculative capital and tend to weaken when investors reduce exposure to high-valuation assets.

Recent pressure on semiconductor stocks has centered on questions about whether AI infrastructure spending can continue at its current pace. Investors are also examining whether future demand for memory chips and computing hardware can support valuations reached during the AI investment boom.

Those concerns are not directly related to Bitcoin’s network or adoption. However, broad risk reduction can still affect crypto as institutional traders rebalance portfolios, reduce leverage and move funds into cash or defensive assets.

For US investors, the next moves in Nvidia and other AI-linked shares could provide an important signal for crypto sentiment. Continued losses across the Nasdaq and semiconductor sector may limit Bitcoin’s ability to recover even without a crypto-specific negative catalyst.

Extreme fear compounds Bitcoin’s August risk

Market sentiment has deteriorated alongside prices. Alternative’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 25, placing the market in the “Extreme Fear” category. The index was at 28 one week earlier.

CoinGecko category data also showed limited strength across the crypto market. Decentralized finance showed limited relative resilience, but the sector remained under pressure alongside the broader crypto market.

That flat performance suggests investors may be favoring yield-generating or market-neutral DeFi strategies over directional exposure. It does not necessarily indicate that traders expect an immediate market recovery.

Bitcoin’s entry into August adds another risk. Historical data over the past 4 years places its average return for the month near negative 10%, making August one of the cryptocurrency’s weakest calendar periods.

Thin summer liquidity can magnify price swings as participation falls. Traders may also reduce exposure ahead of a month associated with repeated losses, creating additional selling pressure through a self-reinforcing seasonal pattern.

Bitcoin price could test $58K if weakness persists

An 8% decline from Bitcoin’s current level near $63,000 would place the asset around $58,000. That area is likely to attract attention as a possible support zone if selling continues.

A break below $58,000 could expose Bitcoin to a deeper correction, particularly if weak liquidity combines with leveraged long liquidations. Conversely, a recovery above $63,000 would be an early sign that buyers are absorbing supply.

The more important test may come from outside the crypto market. A sustainable floor in AI and semiconductor shares could help restore broader risk appetite, while another sharp decline would increase the likelihood of further pressure on Bitcoin.

Extreme fear has historically appeared near favorable medium-term entry points, but it does not identify an exact market bottom. Bitcoin’s August seasonality, weak technology shares and cautious investor positioning leave the near-term setup tilted toward volatility.

Tether generated approximately $1.5 billion in net operating profit during the second quarter of 2026 as returns from US Treasury holdings and repo operations supported its earnings.

Tether reports $4.1B in excess reserves

Tether’s total assets stood at approximately $187.7 billion at the end of June, while its reported liabilities totaled $183.6 billion. The difference left the stablecoin issuer with roughly $4.1 billion in excess reserves.

The figures appeared in Tether’s latest reserve attestation, prepared by accounting firm BDO and released Friday. US government-backed securities continued to account for the largest portion of the company’s reserve portfolio.

Interest earned from that portfolio, along with returns from repo operations, provided the main source of Tether’s second-quarter profit. The company’s exposure to short-term US debt has made its earnings sensitive to Federal Reserve policy and changes in Treasury yields.

Tether also reported that the circulating supply of USDT reached approximately $184.6 billion by the end of June. Based on the company’s figures, the token controlled more than 60% of the global stablecoin market.

Gold holdings rise as secured lending declines

Tether adjusted the composition of its reserves during the quarter by reducing secured lending and increasing its holdings of physical gold.

Outstanding secured loans fell by about $2.4 billion. Tether did not provide a full breakdown of the borrowers or collateral involved in the lending reduction in the information accompanying the results.

Meanwhile, the company purchased another 14 tons of physical gold, bringing its total holdings to more than 146 tons. The increase continued Tether’s move beyond cash-equivalent reserves and into assets such as gold and Bitcoin.

Tether said its portfolio remained resilient despite sharp price swings affecting both assets during the quarter. Its Bitcoin holdings were valued at approximately $5.8 billion at the end of June.

Those positions may provide additional returns when prices rise, but they also expose part of Tether’s balance sheet to greater market volatility than short-dated US government debt.

US Treasury holdings keep Tether tied to US markets

Tether’s reserve structure gives the company a substantial connection to US financial markets even though USDT operates globally.

The company’s earnings remain heavily influenced by income from US Treasury securities and related repo transactions. Any change in US interest rates could therefore affect future profitability, even if the number of USDT tokens in circulation continues to grow.

Tether is also expanding a separate US-focused stablecoin, USAT. The token recently launched on Celo, its second supported mainnet following Ethereum.

USAT users can mint and redeem the token natively on Celo without relying on third-party bridges. Celo’s CIP-64 upgrade also allows approved ERC-20 tokens to pay network transaction fees, meaning users can use USAT for gas instead of holding a separate token.

The deployment extends Tether’s US-oriented product to a blockchain commonly used for digital-dollar payments. It also separates USAT’s expansion from the company’s larger offshore USDT business.

Tether expands infrastructure beyond stablecoins

Tether said it added more than 30 million users globally during the second quarter while continuing preparations for a full audit by a Big Four accounting firm. It did not provide a completion date for that process.

The company is also exploring tokenized capital-market infrastructure in Africa. Tether and the Nairobi Securities Exchange signed a memorandum of understanding on July 28 covering tokenized securities, blockchain-based market systems and digital asset education in Kenya.

The parties will assess whether USDT could support settlement infrastructure where Kenyan regulations allow. However, the memorandum does not authorize a tokenized security, launch a trading venue or commit the exchange to using USDT.

No pilot date, budget, or binding implementation schedule was disclosed. Future developments will depend on regulatory approval, technical assessments, and whether the exploratory agreement advances into a formal project.

Now, younger generations entering the workforce are less drawn to big companies than the generations prior. They factor in wellness outside of work in addition to salary. “They really care about their family, life issues; whether their work will be valuable to their own life. In that sense private companies might be a better place because they can design their own purpose,” Lee says. In this trend, they may also be interested in alternative organization structures like employee-owned companies or worker cooperatives, which have been growing in popularity, with the federal government even encouraging more employers to adopt such models. Southern staple Publix (no. 9) and warehouse chain WinCo (no. 10) are both employee-owned through an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP). 

“Usually, employee-owned companies have higher productivity, their revenue growth is usually 3-4% higher than other companies, and then their quit rate is about a third of other companies,” Lee says. “These numbers always show that employees are very actively engaged in their own company, because their perspective is more long term. … These are motivational incentives for employee owners to make their companies better, and perform better, and that could impact their retirement.” On the other hand, worker cooperatives benefit from “a lot of diverse opinions and comments and insight that really makes their corporate strategy different than other competitors,” Lee says.

Since then, average daily liquidations have remained well below this year’s typical $400 million-$500 million range, suggesting there has been little forced selling despite the macro shock, according to Bitfinex.

“Crypto fell less than levered equity themes because the forced-selling fuel was already spent,” the analysts wrote.

Security concerns linger

Separately, the market is also digesting the fallout from a major exploit involving Coldcard, which resulted in at least $38 million worth of bitcoin being stolen.

The incident hasn’t materially affected price action, but it marked another blowback as digital asset-related exploits have surged and reignited debate around risks of self-custody, one of crypto’s fundamental promises.

“The proceeds haven’t yet been liquidated, but the knock-on effect of this and the likelihood of liquidation will weigh on bitcoin pricing in the near term,” said Paul Howard, director at trading firm Wincent. More broadly, he said, the exploit highlights the operational risks that continue to accompany self-custody.

Read more: Coldcard’s $38 million (so far) exploit shakes faith in self-custody, may push investors to ETFs

Eyes on jobs data and ETF flows

Looking ahead, macro uncertainty remains the dominant theme.

Jeff Anderson, managing partner at STS Digital, said markets may be entering “a new volatility regime” as investors swing between expectations for rate cuts, pauses and hikes. That uncertainty, he said, is likely to keep pressure on high-beta assets such as bitcoin until the economic outlook becomes clearer.

Grayscale Investments has urged the Senate to vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess as lawmakers face mounting pressure to resolve disputes holding up the crypto market structure bill.

Grayscale urges action on the CLARITY Act

Grayscale sent a letter to senators calling for action on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or H.R. 3633. The asset manager said hundreds of thousands of Americans hold its digital asset investment products, giving the company and its clients a direct interest in clearer federal rules.

The bill seeks to establish a regulatory framework for digital asset markets and clarify the respective responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“Senators and staff across the aisle have spent months addressing hard questions about jurisdiction, investor protections, and developer safeguards,” Grayscale said.

According to the company, the proposed framework would strengthen investor protections while preventing legitimate blockchain developers from facing rules intended for financial intermediaries.

Grayscale argued that crypto businesses, developers and investors need stable rules instead of relying on enforcement actions and agency guidance that can change between administrations.

The company also linked the legislation to regulated crypto investment products. Clearer asset classifications and trading rules could affect the development of exchange-traded funds, exchange-traded products and other vehicles available to U.S. investors.

Senate negotiations face a shrinking deadline

Senators have limited floor time remaining before the August recess, with nominations, government funding discussions and foreign policy measures competing for attention.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis said Senate leaders were still trying to bring the legislation forward before the break. She noted that lawmakers had “one more week here in Washington,” although she acknowledged the crowded schedule.

The House passed its version of the CLARITY Act by a 294–134 vote in July 2025, with 78 Democrats supporting the legislation. Any changes adopted by the Senate would need approval from both chambers before the bill could reach President Donald Trump’s desk.

Senate negotiations have continued over ethics provisions covering digital asset activities involving federal officials. That dispute has complicated efforts to secure enough Democratic support to overcome the chamber’s 60-vote threshold for advancing most legislation.

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning the bill would likely need support from at least seven Democrats if every Republican voted in favor. Lawmakers have also considered a procedural vote that could establish the timing and rules for further debate.

Bessent adds pressure for an immediate vote

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has joined the campaign for Senate action, calling on lawmakers to vote “NOW” on the CLARITY Act.

Bessent accused Senate Democrats of delaying the measure under pressure from Sen. Elizabeth Warren and other crypto critics. His intervention added support from the Trump administration as negotiators worked to resolve the remaining disagreements.

Ethics enforcement has emerged as one of the main obstacles. A reported proposal from Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego would allow state authorities to enforce restrictions on federal officials issuing or sponsoring digital tokens.

The proposal would replace an earlier approach that gave the U.S. attorney general sole enforcement authority. Whether that compromise can attract enough bipartisan backing remains uncertain.

US competitiveness becomes part of the debate

Grayscale warned that prolonged uncertainty could push digital asset investment and technical talent toward jurisdictions with more predictable regulations. It cited Singapore and Abu Dhabi as markets that have established clearer frameworks for crypto businesses.

The argument reflects a broader industry effort to frame market structure legislation as an issue of U.S. competitiveness. Supporters say federal rules would give companies more certainty when deciding where to develop products, raise capital and serve customers.

No clear cryptocurrency price movement has been directly linked to Grayscale’s letter. Traders remain focused on whether Senate leaders formally schedule a vote and whether negotiators reach an agreement on ethics restrictions.

Failure to act before the recess would push the debate further into the legislative calendar, where other spending and policy deadlines could make floor time harder to secure. A scheduled vote would signal that Senate leaders believe the bill has enough support to move forward.