Now, younger generations entering the workforce are less drawn to big companies than the generations prior. They factor in wellness outside of work in addition to salary. “They really care about their family, life issues; whether their work will be valuable to their own life. In that sense private companies might be a better place because they can design their own purpose,” Lee says. In this trend, they may also be interested in alternative organization structures like employee-owned companies or worker cooperatives, which have been growing in popularity, with the federal government even encouraging more employers to adopt such models. Southern staple Publix (no. 9) and warehouse chain WinCo (no. 10) are both employee-owned through an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP). 

“Usually, employee-owned companies have higher productivity, their revenue growth is usually 3-4% higher than other companies, and then their quit rate is about a third of other companies,” Lee says. “These numbers always show that employees are very actively engaged in their own company, because their perspective is more long term. … These are motivational incentives for employee owners to make their companies better, and perform better, and that could impact their retirement.” On the other hand, worker cooperatives benefit from “a lot of diverse opinions and comments and insight that really makes their corporate strategy different than other competitors,” Lee says.

Since then, average daily liquidations have remained well below this year’s typical $400 million-$500 million range, suggesting there has been little forced selling despite the macro shock, according to Bitfinex.

“Crypto fell less than levered equity themes because the forced-selling fuel was already spent,” the analysts wrote.

Security concerns linger

Separately, the market is also digesting the fallout from a major exploit involving Coldcard, which resulted in at least $38 million worth of bitcoin being stolen.

The incident hasn’t materially affected price action, but it marked another blowback as digital asset-related exploits have surged and reignited debate around risks of self-custody, one of crypto’s fundamental promises.

“The proceeds haven’t yet been liquidated, but the knock-on effect of this and the likelihood of liquidation will weigh on bitcoin pricing in the near term,” said Paul Howard, director at trading firm Wincent. More broadly, he said, the exploit highlights the operational risks that continue to accompany self-custody.

Read more: Coldcard’s $38 million (so far) exploit shakes faith in self-custody, may push investors to ETFs

Eyes on jobs data and ETF flows

Looking ahead, macro uncertainty remains the dominant theme.

Jeff Anderson, managing partner at STS Digital, said markets may be entering “a new volatility regime” as investors swing between expectations for rate cuts, pauses and hikes. That uncertainty, he said, is likely to keep pressure on high-beta assets such as bitcoin until the economic outlook becomes clearer.

Grayscale Investments has urged the Senate to vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess as lawmakers face mounting pressure to resolve disputes holding up the crypto market structure bill.

Grayscale urges action on the CLARITY Act

Grayscale sent a letter to senators calling for action on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or H.R. 3633. The asset manager said hundreds of thousands of Americans hold its digital asset investment products, giving the company and its clients a direct interest in clearer federal rules.

The bill seeks to establish a regulatory framework for digital asset markets and clarify the respective responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“Senators and staff across the aisle have spent months addressing hard questions about jurisdiction, investor protections, and developer safeguards,” Grayscale said.

According to the company, the proposed framework would strengthen investor protections while preventing legitimate blockchain developers from facing rules intended for financial intermediaries.

Grayscale argued that crypto businesses, developers and investors need stable rules instead of relying on enforcement actions and agency guidance that can change between administrations.

The company also linked the legislation to regulated crypto investment products. Clearer asset classifications and trading rules could affect the development of exchange-traded funds, exchange-traded products and other vehicles available to U.S. investors.

Senate negotiations face a shrinking deadline

Senators have limited floor time remaining before the August recess, with nominations, government funding discussions and foreign policy measures competing for attention.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis said Senate leaders were still trying to bring the legislation forward before the break. She noted that lawmakers had “one more week here in Washington,” although she acknowledged the crowded schedule.

The House passed its version of the CLARITY Act by a 294–134 vote in July 2025, with 78 Democrats supporting the legislation. Any changes adopted by the Senate would need approval from both chambers before the bill could reach President Donald Trump’s desk.

Senate negotiations have continued over ethics provisions covering digital asset activities involving federal officials. That dispute has complicated efforts to secure enough Democratic support to overcome the chamber’s 60-vote threshold for advancing most legislation.

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning the bill would likely need support from at least seven Democrats if every Republican voted in favor. Lawmakers have also considered a procedural vote that could establish the timing and rules for further debate.

Bessent adds pressure for an immediate vote

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has joined the campaign for Senate action, calling on lawmakers to vote “NOW” on the CLARITY Act.

Bessent accused Senate Democrats of delaying the measure under pressure from Sen. Elizabeth Warren and other crypto critics. His intervention added support from the Trump administration as negotiators worked to resolve the remaining disagreements.

Ethics enforcement has emerged as one of the main obstacles. A reported proposal from Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego would allow state authorities to enforce restrictions on federal officials issuing or sponsoring digital tokens.

The proposal would replace an earlier approach that gave the U.S. attorney general sole enforcement authority. Whether that compromise can attract enough bipartisan backing remains uncertain.

US competitiveness becomes part of the debate

Grayscale warned that prolonged uncertainty could push digital asset investment and technical talent toward jurisdictions with more predictable regulations. It cited Singapore and Abu Dhabi as markets that have established clearer frameworks for crypto businesses.

The argument reflects a broader industry effort to frame market structure legislation as an issue of U.S. competitiveness. Supporters say federal rules would give companies more certainty when deciding where to develop products, raise capital and serve customers.

No clear cryptocurrency price movement has been directly linked to Grayscale’s letter. Traders remain focused on whether Senate leaders formally schedule a vote and whether negotiators reach an agreement on ethics restrictions.

Failure to act before the recess would push the debate further into the legislative calendar, where other spending and policy deadlines could make floor time harder to secure. A scheduled vote would signal that Senate leaders believe the bill has enough support to move forward.

Key points: 

• Bond yields have been going up since the beginning of the Iran war, widely attributed to inflation expectations due to energy prices
• However, the five-year inflation expectation priced into Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities is 2.2% and trending down since May
• The driver appears to be rising real yields with bearish implications for yield-free assets like Bitcoin 

Continuation of Q2 bond selling

After yields reached local lows in early March, US government debt has been undergoing a multi-month sell-off. This week, after the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), 30-year Treasury yields made headlines by reaching the highest level since 2007. 

In line with the two-year yield rising 76 basis points (bps) in this window, a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve is priced into the markets at 63%, according to CME FedWatch.

2Y, 10Y and 30Y US Treasury Yields. Data Source: Treasury.gov

With rates at these elevated levels, government bond investments are, for the first time since 2019, more profitable than cash-and-carry trades in the crypto markets, as per Glassnode’s latest research. 

2Y US Treasury yield and crypto futures carry trade. Source: Glassnode

The mainstream inflation narrative

The reason for the bond sell-off is commonly taken to be the inflationary pressures from higher commodity and energy prices. The multi-month bond sell-off coincides with the start of the Iran war and resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, the daily closes of the two-year US government bond yield, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude have correlated since March at a coefficient of r=0.44:

Daily closes of WTI and Brent Crude against 2Y Yield. Data Sources: fred.stlouisfed.org, EIA

WTI briefly rose once again above $85 a barrel on Thursday after President Donald Trump threatened Iran and bonds sold off leading into the FOMC. Nothing about the conflict suggests a near-term resolution, which has led some to argue that higher rates are being caused by inflation expectations.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil price chart. Source: Tradingeconomics.com

This has driven loud inflation scares through the mainstream financial press, with recent Bloomberg headlines, such as “Global Bonds Are Reeling as Oil Surge Rekindles Inflation Threat”, “US Yields Hit Two-Month High as Oil Sparks Inflation Risk” or “Global Bond Selloff Worsens as Rising Oil Prices Spook Investors”. Among the ever-inflation-aware crypto and precious metals audience, this narrative is popular, too: 

By comparing the yield of a TIPS with a regular, equally dated Treasury, the expectation of future CPI inflation can be estimated as the so-called breakeven rate. And although Treasury yields have been rising, the five-year breakeven rate has gone down sharply since May. 

Five-year breakeven inflation rate. Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

At roughly 2.2%, the five-year breakeven expects the Fed to achieve its 2% target in the medium term. However, more telling is that the breakeven rate has been moving in the opposite direction to the nominal treasury yields.

While the five-year nominal yield rose 33 bps, TIPS data suggests this was the result of an 84 bps rise in the real yield, partially offset by a 51 bps decline in expected inflation. While the inflation narrative remains a compelling story, the marketplace says otherwise. The real story ought to be a rise in real yields. 

What it may mean for crypto

Generally, rising “real” investment returns on bonds and stocks in terms of CPI make non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin relatively less attractive to certain investors. Beyond this, the impact on the crypto market depends on the explanation for higher real rates, of which several are available. 

Reserve liquidation — No clear impact on Crypto. Higher oil prices widen trade deficits for Asian energy importers. As oil is generally priced and settled in US dollars, shortages in the local eurodollar markets in Asia have occurred, which has put their exchange rates under pressure. The Japanese yen (JPY), Philippine peso (PHP) and Indian rupee (RBI) have all required central bank intervention to defend their exchange rates. As these measures are funded by the sale of US Treasury reserves, this puts upward pressure on bond yields. HSBC’s Frederic Neumann is on record attributing the bond sell-off to FX pressure rather than a verdict on the dollar.

Demand destruction — Bearish for Crypto. An oil shock that persists long enough stops being inflationary and starts triggering a recession. Neuberger Berman argued in its second-quarter outlook that investors are underpricing the hit to output from sustained energy prices. The credit contraction that coincides with a recession would be bad for equities and Bitcoin by severely restricting liquidity. In a real sign of recessionary credit events, credit spreads are expected to widen. Cointelegraph reported on possible first signs of this on Wednesday.

Related: Cost to insure AI debt reaches record high amid Asian semiconductor tumble

Investment demand — Likely bearish for Crypto. Real rates may have also responded to expected growth and the demand for capital from the AI sector. Government bond issuance is increasingly competing with the record issuance of corporate bonds from AI hyperscalers. Goldman Sachs Research projects roughly $755 billion of AI capex in 2026 and about $920 billion in 2027. UBS has raised its 2026 investment-grade issuance forecast to $1.8 trillion, with technology supply lifted to $360 billion on hyperscaler guidance. As crypto is competing for a similar pool of capital and investor cohort, this is likely to suppress the sector.

A Bank of Italy study found that stablecoin-based remittances did not offer a systematic cost or speed advantage over traditional payment channels, as fiat on- and off-ramp frictions accounted for most costs and transfer delays.

Researchers tested 200 USDC (USDC) remittances across 10 bidirectional payment corridors linking Italy with Brazil, Argentina, Japan, the United Arab Emirates and South Africa, comparing end-to-end costs and settlement times with traditional remittance services. They found that exchange fees and currency conversion made up most of the cost, while blockchain transaction fees represented only a small share.

Geographic design of the remittance experiment. Source: Bank of Italy

Across the stablecoin remittances examined, total costs ranged from 0.3% to nearly 9% depending on the payment corridor, while transfers settled in less than 20 minutes where instant payment systems were available and one to two business days where they were not.

Using the World Bank’s reported global average remittance cost of 6.65% as a benchmark, the study found stablecoin transfers were cheaper in most of the payment corridors examined. However, they were less expensive than Wise in only three of seven comparable corridors.

Related: Europe should weigh tokenized SEPA payments, Bank of Italy official says

Payment infrastructure remains critical

The study concluded that investment in domestic instant payment infrastructure could improve the competitiveness of stablecoin-based cross-border payments, finding that settlement times depended heavily on the quality of local payment rails. 

The authors argued that the biggest gains may come when stablecoins no longer require conversion back into fiat currency, writing:

If stablecoins could be spent directly in the real economy, for goods and services, rents, or school fees, without reconversion into local fiat currency, the economic advantages of stablecoin-based transfers would be substantially higher.

Regulation shapes remittance efficiency

The study also found that regulatory design played a major role in determining transfer efficiency. The authors said prohibitionist regulatory regimes failed to fully suppress stablecoin demand and instead pushed users toward offshore platforms and other unregulated channels, while overly restrictive frameworks increased operational complexity for retail users. 

The findings come as the European Union has implemented its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework and the United States has enacted the GENIUS Act, two regulatory regimes that govern crypto assets and payment stablecoins, respectively.

The stablecoin market has grown to about $307 billion, up roughly 16% over the past year, according to DefiLlama data.

Magazine: A quantum roadmap would push Bitcoin much higher: Charles Edwards