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Bitcoin Targets $63K as Softer US CPI Lifts Sept Fed Pause Odds to 60%

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin traded softer around the Wall Street open on Wednesday as traders digested fresh US inflation data and reassessed how restrictive the Federal Reserve is likely to remain. Despite July CPI coming in line with expectations, BTC/USD slipped below $63,500, erasing earlier gains and bringing renewed attention to the $63,000 area.

Market focus is now shifting to Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI), with investors looking for clues on whether inflation momentum is truly cooling or merely pausing—especially after recent labor-market signals have already complicated the rate path debate.

Key takeaways

  • BTC/USD slid back below $63,500 after July CPI matched expectations, showing inflation “in line” did not automatically translate into bullish momentum.
  • CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a higher probability that the Fed holds rates at the current 3.50%–3.75% range for September compared with a month ago.
  • Traders are warning that the $63,000 support zone may be weakening as bounces lose strength, increasing the risk of a cleaner breakdown.
  • Options pricing suggests traders are still paying for downside protection, and PPI is set to be the next catalyst for that view.
  • Overhead resistance around $65,000–$65,500 remains a recurring barrier, with recent price action failing to produce sustained daily closes above it.

Inflation matched expectations—yet Bitcoin weakened

TradingView data showed BTC/USD moving down below $63,500 after initially holding gains. The broader market reaction was relatively muted in equities, because the July CPI report landed essentially where economists expected.

According to a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release, CPI increased 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year. The report also highlighted that the “shelter” component rose 0.1% in July and represented about two-thirds of the month’s all-items increase. Food prices edged up 0.1% overall, while the energy index declined 1.5% for the month.

While CPI did not repeat June’s downside surprise, the lack of a supportive reaction matters to crypto traders because it suggests the market is no longer searching for “good news” so much as it is looking for confirmation that the Fed is done tightening—or at least done tightening soon. In other words, a headline number that is merely “in line” may not be enough to shift risk appetite if traders remain focused on policy risk.

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Rate expectations cooled, but traders are waiting for the next data point

Fabian Dori, CIO at Sygnum Bank, argued in emailed comments that CPI’s cooling effect—combined with weaker labor-market figures—could strengthen the case for the Fed to avoid additional rate hikes. He suggested this would be supportive for liquidity conditions that tend to benefit crypto and other risk assets.

Dori framed the near-term takeaway as a gradual cooling narrative without forcing markets into a recession scare or an abrupt “hawkish re-pricing.” He also pointed out that September rate odds should stay relatively stable if the macro mix does not deteriorate.

Consistent with that view, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed about 60% odds that the Fed would hold rates at its current 3.50%–3.75% range at the September meeting—up from 30% a month earlier. Investors typically watch this kind of shifting probability because it influences discount rates and risk appetite across assets, including crypto.

Still, traders are not fully comfortable treating CPI as a decisive turning point. Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, told Cointelegraph that an in-line CPI print doesn’t “resolve much” after the previous jobs report missed expectations. He also emphasized the state of the derivatives market: he said the Bitcoin options market was continuing to price a meaningful premium for downside protection into the end-August expiry.

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Grachev added that Thursday’s PPI report would be the next check on whether that premium begins to fade—an important signal for whether traders see risk as moving toward normalization or remaining skewed to the downside.

Support at $63,000 under pressure as bounces weaken

Beyond macro, technical traders are focused on how price is behaving around the same key levels. Rekt Capital warned on X that each bounce from approximately $63,000 has been losing momentum, with the strength of the support appearing to progressively fade.

His commentary included a sequence indicating that the “support” effects on rebounds had diminished over time—culminating in what he described as support that had thinned to roughly 1.15% “thus far.” He cautioned that once rebounds become too weak, the market may stop defending the floor.

“At some point the bounces will become so weak that the floor will simply break.”

Rekt Capital also referenced earlier analysis that Bitcoin bear-market history may be repeating as the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently around $65,827, acts as resistance rather than support.

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That resistance picture is echoed by Bitfinex Alpha, the research arm of exchange Bitfinex. In an update published Wednesday, it said equities set all-time highs over the prior two weeks while Bitcoin continued to struggle with a consistent barrier in the $65,000–$65,500 zone. The research noted that from early August through that period, the market printed daily highs above $65,000 multiple times, but failed to record a daily close above that level since late July.

What to watch next: PPI and whether protection costs ease

With CPI already “in line,” the market’s next move is likely to depend less on whether inflation prints look merely acceptable and more on whether they confirm a sustained trend—something PPI could clarify. For traders, the key questions are whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $63,000 or whether weakening bounces turn into a more decisive break, and whether options pricing starts to show reduced demand for downside protection as expectations evolve.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Boltz Founders Exit as Unnamed Bitcoin Group Agrees to Take Over Suspended Swap Service

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Boltz Founders Exit as Unnamed Bitcoin Group Agrees to Take Over Suspended Swap Service


Boltz’s original founders have stepped down, and an unnamed group of “veteran Bitcoiners” has agreed to take over the suspended Bitcoin swap service, the company said Wednesday. The incoming operators will provide capital and engineering resources, while work to find and fix vulnerabilities is… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Bitget Institutional Launches $300 Million Project Archimedes to Back Quant Firms and Asset Managers

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Bitget Institutional Launches $300 Million Project Archimedes to Back Quant Firms and Asset Managers

Bitget, the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), has launched Project Archimedes, a $300 million institutional capital program for quantitative trading firms, asset managers and market makers.

With the vision of backing minds that move markets, Project Archimedes will support firms at different stages of growth through two programs:

  • Capital Provider Program ($100 million): Allocated to accelerate emerging and growing quantitative firms running market-neutral strategies. Bitget will provide capital, with returns shared under an agreed structure and risk framework.
  • Interest-Free Lending Program ($200 million): Available to established institutions with mature strategies and existing trading scale. Eligible firms can access interest-free capital by meeting defined trading volume or position requirements, reducing funding costs while increasing the capital available to their strategies.

Institutional trading is entering a period where access to capital, execution quality and risk control increasingly determine which strategies can scale. Arbitrage returns across established crypto markets have tightened as competition has increased, leading quantitative firms to explore market structures such as basis spreads, funding-rate differences and tokenized assets.

“Strong strategies often reach a point where talent is no longer the constraint but capital might,” said Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget. “Project Archimedes gives capable teams the acceleration it needs to scale, while aligning capital, risk and execution around sustainable performance. Our goal is to boost over fifty projects in the next six months with this capital.”

The program takes its name from Archimedes’ principle that the right fulcrum can move the world. For institutional trading firms, capital provides that fulcrum, while product structure and infrastructure determine how effectively it can be used.

Tokenized US stocks offer one example. Arbitrage opportunities can arise from differences in basis and funding rates across spot and derivative markets. These strategies typically require firms to maintain positions on both sides of a trade, which can tie up margin across separate accounts.

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Under Bitget’s Unified Account, eligible rToken spot positions can serve as collateral for derivatives trading without requiring transfers between accounts. This structure allows institutions to maintain tokenized stock exposure while deploying related contract strategies through the same account, improving the use of available capital. Weekend collateral valuation follows the underlying stock’s Friday closing price, providing a fixed reference while traditional US markets are closed.

Project Archimedes will focus initially on market-neutral strategies with established operating histories and measurable risk controls. Participating institutions will undergo strategy assessment, due diligence and drawdown reviews.

The program is structured as a long-term capital cooperation framework with rolling admissions and phased deployment. Bitget Institutional plans to disclose program developments over time, including participation figures, deployed capital and strategy distribution. Product specifications, market-structure research and institutional case studies will provide further insight into how participating firms use capital and trading infrastructure.

Project Archimedes also supports Bitget Institutional’s broader role as a capital partner with market insight, connecting firms with liquidity, unified trading infrastructure and an international institutional network. Through capital allocation and interest-free lending, the program aims to help emerging teams establish stronger foundations and enable mature institutions to convert proven strategies into greater trading scale.

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About Bitget

Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users and offering access to over 2M crypto tokens, 500+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX, and precious metals such as gold. The ecosystem is committed to helping users trade smarter with its AI agent, which co-pilots trade execution. Bitget is driving crypto adoption through strategic partnerships such as MotoGP™. Aligned with its global impact strategy, Bitget has joined hands with UNICEF to support blockchain education for 1.1 million people by 2027. Bitget currently leads in the tokenized TradFi market, providing the industry’s lowest fees and highest liquidity across 150 regions worldwide.

For more information, visit: Website | X | Telegram | LinkedIn | Discord

Risk Warning: Digital asset prices are subject to fluctuation and may experience significant volatility. Investors are advised to only allocate funds they can afford to lose. The value of any investment may be impacted, and there is a possibility that financial objectives may not be met, nor the principal investment recovered. Independent financial advice should always be sought, and personal financial experience and standing carefully considered. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bitget accepts no liability for any potential losses incurred. Nothing contained herein should be construed as financial advice. For further information, please refer to our Terms of Use.

The post Bitget Institutional Launches $300 Million Project Archimedes to Back Quant Firms and Asset Managers appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Bitcoin Rebound Faces Risk as Futures Demand Outpaces Spot Buying: Analysts

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Bitcoin’s bounce off Tuesday’s low near $63,200 is coming mostly from leveraged futures positioning, not real spot buying, according to CryptoQuant data cited by the analytics account XWIN Japan.

That’s the same setup that preceded April 2026’s failed rally, which is why some analysts are treating the current recovery as fragile until spot demand actually shows up.

Futures Are Leading, Spot Is Lagging

XWIN Japan laid out the numbers plainly: 30-day perpetual futures demand has turned positive again, while on-chain spot demand remains negative. Traders, in other words, are adding leveraged exposure before real spot buying has caught up.

The account pointed to April 2026 as the precedent, when Bitcoin ran from roughly $66,000 to $79,000 on rising futures demand while spot stayed weak, and the rally eventually faded once that leverage unwound.

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One difference this time is that US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have started recovering too. As XWIN Japan put it, “the key question is not simply whether Bitcoin is rising.”

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, had made a near-identical call earlier in the day: open interest is climbing while on-chain spot demand stays negative, and “a sustainable rally needs both spot and future demand.”

He’d said almost the same thing on April 27, noting that Bitcoin was futures-driven even with ETF inflows and Michael Saylor’s Strategy purchases in play, and that bear markets historically only end once spot and futures demand recover together.

Bitcoin was trading near $64,000 at the time of writing, having oscillated within a 24-hour range of roughly $63,200 to $64,400 per CoinGecko data.

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Price Under Pressure, and a Familiar Setup

It’s been a choppy stretch for the asset as it first got turned back at $65,000 earlier this month after the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, then rallied a few hundred bucks above that same level on a weak US jobs report last Friday before getting rejected there again on Monday. It slipped as low as the aforementioned $63,200 on Tuesday, a nine-day low, before clawing back some ground.

Zoom out, and the picture softens further: BTC is up only 1.4% across 30 days and still down 46% from a year ago. Its market cap sits near $1.28 trillion, with dominance over the rest of the crypto market just over 57%.

Other traders are watching the same tension play out technically. Glassnode data shows 54.6% of Bitcoin’s supply still sitting in profit even as the price has stuck in the $63,500 to $65,000 band, with the firm treating $65,000 as the level that would need to break before anyone calls a bottom confirmed.

A weekly chart shared separately by trader Titan adds another wrinkle: the same moving-average crossover that preceded Bitcoin’s three prior cycle bottoms, in 2015, 2019, and 2022, has just printed again, with price sitting in the same zone the chart flags as a potential bottoming range.

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That lines up with XWIN Japan’s framing regardless: the rebound holds together only if spot buying, ETF flows, and futures demand all turn up together, and if open interest keeps climbing without spot behind it, the setup looks like April all over again.

The post Bitcoin Rebound Faces Risk as Futures Demand Outpaces Spot Buying: Analysts appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Hawaii Crypto ATM Ban to Take Effect on Oct. 1

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Hawaii Crypto ATM Ban to Take Effect on Oct. 1

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.

All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.

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x402 Volume Plunges 93% YTD as Agentic AI Economy Hype Fades

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Market analyst Jamie Coutts said x402 daily settlement volume is down 93% year-to-date as a late-2025 testing wave died out.

The decline contrasts with growing infrastructure for AI agents, leaving the protocol’s actual payment activity well behind the expectations surrounding the agentic economy.

x402 Activity Remains Far Below Late-2025 Levels

Coutts posted the assessment on August 12, pointing to a Helios Analytics chart tracking x402 settlement volume from October 2025 through July 2026. The data shows heavy activity during the final quarter of 2025, with several daily peaks approaching or passing $800,000 and $1 million.

That activity did not last. Settlement volume fell steeply after December and remained subdued through most of 2026. The chart puts the seven-day average at around $41,800, while the latest provisional daily figure is roughly $28,400.

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The wider figure tells a similar story. x402 volume is down 55% over three months and 93% year-to-date. Yet the one-year figure is still 358 times higher, largely because activity was starting from a very low base.

Coutts described the numbers as a “reality check” for claims that the agentic economy is already here. Still, he does not see the current slowdown as permanent. He expects agent activity to begin rising alongside greater use of agent harnesses in the fourth quarter.

His argument rests partly on a recent development involving Cloudflare. On July 1, the company launched its Monetization Gateway, which lets customers charge for pages, APIs, datasets and MCP tools. The service uses x402 for stablecoin settlement and handles usage measurement and settlement at the edge.

Coutts said the system expands Cloudflare’s earlier Pay Per Crawl model. That service focused on charging AI bots, while the new gateway can charge any caller, including people and AI agents.

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Infrastructure Is Growing While Usage Catches Up

The muted settlement data comes despite a series of developments aimed at machine-to-machine payments. On July 14, Ripple joined the newly launched x402 Foundation, hosted by the Linux Foundation, as a premier member alongside other crypto firms overseeing the Coinbase-built protocol.

Markus Infranger, senior vice president of RippleX, said “open standards like x402 help lay the foundation for trusted, interoperable machine-to-machine payments.” Ripple said its XRP Ledger already supports x402, meaning agents could transact using XRP or its RLUSD stablecoin, something it had previewed a month earlier with an AI Starter Kit for building autonomous payment apps on the XRPL, built with t54.

A16z had flagged x402 by name back in December 2025, predicting AI agents would need payments that move at internet speed and calling programmable settlement tools a way to make value transfer “a native network function rather than a separate operational layer.” Almost eight months later, Coutts’ chart shows the anticipated activity has mostly gone quiet.

The post x402 Volume Plunges 93% YTD as Agentic AI Economy Hype Fades appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Circle’s cirBTC Is Live on Ethereum but Has Only 40 BTC Outstanding

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Circle’s cirBTC Is Live on Ethereum but Has Only 40 BTC Outstanding


Circle renewed its push for cirBTC as neutral institutional collateral in an Aug. 12 post, but the product is not a new launch. It has been live on Ethereum since June 8 and had only about 40 tokens outstanding at the time of review, compared with more than 116,000 WBTC and 97,000 cbBTC. cirBTC… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Nvidia Q2 Earnings in 14 Days: What to Expect from NVDA Stock?

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Nvidia Consensus EPS Forecast. Source: TipRanks

Nvidia reports Q2 earnings on August 26, and Wall Street already knows the headline number. Analysts expect about $92 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $2.08, double the year-ago figure.

The report is due in 14 days. Nvidia guided to $91 billion, so a beat is close to assumed. What to expect beyond that is where analysts split.

What Wall Street Expects From Nvidia Q2 Earnings

The call begins at 5 p.m. ET. It covers the quarter that ended July 26. Nvidia set the bar itself in May. It grew to $91 billion, give or take 2%, with gross margin near 75%. Those figures come from the company’s own outlook.

The year-ago quarter makes the math easy. Nvidia earned $1.05 per share on $46.7 billion in revenue. Hitting $92 billion would nearly double the top line.

One caveat on the earnings figure. TipRanks puts consensus at $2.08 from 37 analysts. Zacks, tracked by Nasdaq, shows $2.01 from 11. The gap is small, but it decides what counts as a beat.

Nvidia Consensus EPS Forecast. Source: TipRanks
Nvidia Consensus EPS Forecast. Source: TipRanks

Analysts are almost uniformly positive. Of the 37 tracked, 36 rate the stock a Buy and one a Hold. The average target sits near $310, with estimates from $250 to $500.

Crypto traders have their own reason to watch. Nvidia’s November 2025 report lifted Bitcoin above $91,000. AI sentiment now moves both markets.

Nvidia Has Beaten Its Own Guidance for Three Straight Quarters

The beat is expected because it keeps happening. The size of it barely changes.

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  • Nvidia guided to $54 billion for the October 2025 quarter and delivered $57 billion.
  • It guided to $65 billion for January and delivered $68.1 billion.
  • They also guided to $78 billion for April and delivered $81.6 billion.

That is a beat of $3 billion, $3.1 billion, then $3.6 billion. Every figure comes from Nvidia’s own quarterly releases.

Bank of America expects $94 billion to $95 billion this time. That is a beat of $3 billion to $4 billion. It sits exactly inside the pattern.

So the surprise would be a small beat, not a large one.

The Growth Rate is the Part Nobody Highlights

Here the picture shifts. Revenue growth from one quarter to the next has run near 20% three times in a row.

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Nvidia’s $91 billion revenue guide implies growth of just 11.5%. Even Bank of America’s $95 billion works out to 16%. Both are the slowest pace in more than a year.

The year-on-year number still looks enormous at roughly 97%. That is because the comparison base is small, not because momentum is building.

While none of this means demand is fading, it does explain why a headline beat may not move the stock much.

The Guidance Number to Expect is $108 Billion

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya models third-quarter guidance of $107 billion to $108 billion. Analysts currently carry roughly $104 billion. Arya keeps a Buy rating and a $350 target.

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Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider holds a Buy rating with a $285 target. He expects meaningful upside to guidance. He also warns that the bar is high after a 12% two-week run.

Goldman’s 2026 and 2027 estimates are 6% and 19% above consensus, respectively. Traders can weigh that against the current Nvidia stock price forecast.

The options market has voted too. Contracts expiring on August 28 imply a 6.75% move, or a range near $209 to $239. The stock traded around $224 on Wednesday after closing at $217.50 the day before.

Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Expected Move For Options Expiring August 28, Two Days After Q2 Earnings. Source: OptionCharts
Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Expected Move For Options Expiring August 28, Two Days After Q2 Earnings. Source: OptionCharts

What Could Go Wrong Between Vera Rubin and Memory Costs

Nvidia moved its Vera Rubin platform into full production on May 31. Shipments start in the fall.

“Agentic AI is a new kind of workload. One prompt can launch a thousand-step journey of reasoning, retrieval, tool use and response generation. Vera Rubin was built for this moment,” Jensen Huang, Nvidia founder and chief executive, in the company’s announcement.

  • Memory is the cost problem.

It now accounts for 40% to 50% of the cost to build a system. That share used to be 15% to 20%.

Bank of America still sees margins holding near 73% to 74%. On Rubin racks, the memory hit is about 60 basis points. Larger pod systems could take 500.

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  • Then there is the funding question.

Nvidia has put roughly $70 billion into partners, including $30 billion in OpenAI and $10 billion in Anthropic. Critics say that props up its own order book.

Bank of America calls it 15% of the free cash flow it expects across 2026 and 2027. Skeptics are unmoved. The worry feeds the AI bubble debate.

Suppliers point the other way. Supermicro’s record AI backlog showed demand that has not cooled.

What to Watch on August 26

The setup is unusual. Nvidia could beat by $4 billion and still disappoint, because attention has moved to the October quarter.

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Investors also want proof that the demand is external. That doubt grew once Nvidia began financing its own customers.

Expect the guidance slide to matter more than the beat. Whether $108 billion appears there may set the tone for months.

The post Nvidia Q2 Earnings in 14 Days: What to Expect from NVDA Stock? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Prediction market users report 79% loss rate in US survey

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U.S. democrats urge crackdown on potential insider trading in prediction markets

A new U.S. survey has found that 79% of prediction-market users lost money during the past year, while 51% used borrowed funds to place bets.

Summary

  • 79% of users reported losses, including 27% who lost more than $500.
  • Among users who borrowed money, 88% reported losses, compared with 69% of non-borrowers.
  • 53% joined for income-related reasons, nearly twice the share motivated by entertainment or curiosity.
  • The online survey covered 1,000 U.S. adults, with results based on raw, unweighted responses.

Prediction market losses rise among borrowers

BadCredit.org surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults and found that 15% had used a platform such as Kalshi, Polymarket, or PredictIt, placing the consumer findings against a period of rapid trading growth and continued regulatory debate.

Among self-reported users, 79% said they had lost money on prediction markets in the past year. More than one-quarter, or 27%, reported losses above $500, including 9% who lost over $1,000. Only 21% said they had not lost money during the period.

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Losses were more common among people who financed their positions with debt. According to the study, 51% of users had funded bets through a credit card, personal loan, or another form of borrowing. Of that group, 88% reported losing money, compared with 69% of users who did not borrow.

Consumer finance expert Erica Sandberg warned that debt adds repayment costs to an already uncertain outcome. Borrowers may owe interest after losing the original amount, increasing the total cost beyond the value placed on the contract.

“Although tempting, borrowing money to place a bet is a universally bad idea,” Sandberg said.

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Credit cards and personal loans are meant to finance purchases that borrowers can repay, she added, rather than speculative contracts whose value depends on the result of a future event. Sandberg advised participants to use only cash they can afford to lose without affecting bills or creating debt.

The study measured whether respondents experienced losses during the previous year, but it did not publish platform-level account records or calculate net returns from verified transaction histories. Its results therefore represent participants’ own reports rather than audited trading data.

Income needs are drawing users to prediction markets

Financial motives ranked above entertainment when respondents explained why they began using prediction markets. The survey found that 44% wanted to earn extra income, while another 9% were struggling financially and needed an additional source of money.

Combined, 53% entered for an income-related reason. Entertainment or curiosity attracted 27%, social-media content influenced 10%, and recommendations from friends or relatives brought in 7%. Another 3% said conventional investing felt inaccessible.

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Across all surveyed adults, 30% believed prediction markets could realistically improve their financial situation. Men expressed that belief more often than women, at 37% versus 25%.

Usage also showed a gender difference. According to the survey, 24% of men had tried a prediction-market platform, compared with 9% of women. BadCredit.org did not provide account-level data to determine whether bet sizes, contract choices, or returns differed by gender.

The income findings come as prediction markets offer contracts tied to elections, economic releases, cryptocurrency prices, sports, and other events. Participants generally buy contracts priced between $0 and $1, with the value moving according to the market’s estimated probability before settlement.

Separate transaction research has also found that profits can be concentrated among a small number of accounts. In April, crypto.news covered an academic study of 1.72 million Polymarket accounts and about $13.76 billion in volume from 2023 through 2025.

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Researchers from London Business School and Yale classified 3.14% of the accounts as skilled winners. Skilled traders and market makers, who together represented less than 3.5% of accounts, captured more than 30% of gains, while 67% of accounts categorized as unlucky or unskilled losers absorbed the platform’s total losses.

Prediction market volume has reached record levels

Consumer losses have drawn attention during a sharp rise in platform activity. Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US generated a combined $50.59 billion in July trading volume, according to recent market data published on Aug. 3.

The monthly total increased 7.8% from a revised $46.95 billion in June. Kalshi accounted for $37.7 billion, or about 74.5% of the combined figure, while Polymarket US grew 54% to $5 billion.

Polymarket’s international venue recorded $7.9 billion, down 26% from June. Combined activity across its U.S. and international operations reached $12.9 billion.

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The figures represent taker notional volume, not customer deposits, platform revenue, or trader losses. Because one contract can change hands several times before settlement, the same capital may contribute to volume repeatedly.

World Cup contracts supplied a large share of summer activity. Chainalysis estimated that about 400,000 wallets generated $5.7 billion during the five-week tournament and that World Cup markets accounted for roughly 63% of prediction-market activity over that period.

Open interest across Kalshi and the two Polymarket venues fell from around $2 billion near the start of July to about $1.2 billion by month-end as tournament positions closed or settled. The decline occurred even as monthly turnover reached a record.

US regulators are examining customer protection

Prediction markets in the United States sit between federal derivatives oversight and state gambling rules. Kalshi operates as a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-designated contract market, while QCX, which operates Polymarket US, also appears on the CFTC’s list of designated markets.

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Federal registration has not ended disputes over sports contracts. Several states maintain that products tied to games resemble conventional wagers and require local gambling licenses, while the platforms argue that the Commodity Exchange Act places their event contracts under federal supervision.

In July, the U.S. House Agriculture Committee scheduled a hearing focused on customer protection and market integrity as gaming groups pressed Congress to restrict sports-based contracts. As reported at the time, representatives of the American Gaming Association and Indian Gaming Association argued that some prediction products perform the same economic function as sports bets.

CFTC officials have also told regulated platforms to avoid presenting contracts through American-style gambling odds, which use formats such as +150 or -200. The agency reminded operators that event contracts remain subject to derivatives laws and that marketing, listings, and solicitations cannot use deceptive practices.

State litigation continues alongside federal scrutiny. Courts in different jurisdictions have reached conflicting early decisions on whether commodities law prevents states from applying gambling rules, leaving access and product availability dependent partly on where a user lives.

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BadCredit.org conducted its survey through an online panel and used raw, unweighted responses. Questions about borrowing, losses, and motivations went only to respondents who said they had used a prediction market. The organization calculated a margin of error of about ±3.1 percentage points for the full sample and approximately ±8 percentage points for findings drawn from the user subgroup.

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Who Owns the President’s Tweets? A Federal Lawsuit Wants an Answer

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Keir Starmer Resigns After Trump Predicted UK Leadership Departure

The Intercept and the Freedom of the Press Foundation filed a Truth API lawsuit against President Donald Trump on Wednesday. The case asks a federal judge to decide whether the president can sell early access to his own official statements.

The complaint, filed in the Southern District of New York, says presidential posts are government information. If that holds, no paying customer can own a bigger share of them than any other American.

A $100,000 Paywall on the President’s Posts

Truth Social’s parent, Trump Media & Technology Group, switched on the Truth API on August 1. The product feeds posts from the platform’s top accounts to paying clients within milliseconds. Trump’s account is the main draw.

Markets often move when he posts. Subscribers, mostly high-frequency trading firms, pay $60,000 to $100,000 a month for that head start. More than 10 firms have signed up, and the feed has already earned over $1 million.

That figure matters. Trump Media booked a $238.1 million net loss in the second quarter on revenue of just $1.7 million. At more than $1 million a month, the feed could soon out-earn the rest of the business.

Trump is the company’s largest shareholder through a trust. According to the complaint, his stake was once worth $4 billion and has since sunk to around $1 billion.

Inside the Truth API Lawsuit

The plaintiffs, backed by the watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), lean on two constitutional guarantees.

Under the First Amendment, they argue, journalists and the public hold an equal right to official information. Selling a head start breaks that right.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

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The Fifth Amendment claim targets the price itself. Charging “unreasonable sums” for equal access undermines equal protection, the complaint says. It calls the product an “out-and-out plan of extortion.”

“Every American is entitled to equal access to the president’s public statements. Individuals who pay $100,000 to the president’s personal company do not have any greater entitlement to those public statements,” CREW chief counsel Nikhel Sus made that argument in the filing announcement.

The suit reaches into the White House itself. It also names Trump aide Natalie Harp, Deputy Chief of Staff Daniel Scavino, and the Executive Office of the President. None of the defendants had responded publicly by publication.

Regulators Have Killed This Model Before

Washington saw this coming. On July 28, Senators Adam Schiff and Elizabeth Warren demanded an SEC investigation, writing to Chair Paul Atkins days before the feed launched. Their letter listed stocks Trump had promoted on Truth Social this year, including Citigroup, Palantir, and Coinbase.

History offers Trump Media a warning. In 2013, Thomson Reuters sold select clients a two-second head start on consumer sentiment data for $6,025 a month.

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New York’s attorney general pushed back, and the program died. A year later, Business Wire cut its direct feeds to high-speed traders under similar pressure.

Those sellers were private data vendors, and they charged a fraction of Truth API’s price. This time, the product is the sitting president’s own voice, and the seller is his own company.

A judge, rather than a regulator, may now decide whether official speech can carry a price tag.

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The post Who Owns the President’s Tweets? A Federal Lawsuit Wants an Answer appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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ICE Is Getting Body Cameras. But Will They Help Hold Agents Accountable?

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ICE Is Getting Body Cameras. But Will They Help Hold Agents Accountable?

Phillip Atiba Solomon, professor at Yale University and co-founder of the Center for Policing Equity, says that comprehensive policy should not leave key questions unanswered, such as: “What are the consequences if you disobey those rules?”

“A piece of legislation without an enforcement mechanism is a polite request,” he tells TIME.

The policy does require “Field Responsible Officials” to provide operational training to their agents “at least yearly,” focusing on their handling of recordings, privacy compliance, procedures for redacting and sharing data, and civil rights considerations. 

But knowing how to use the cameras is different from establishing how useful they actually are in the field.

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How effective are body cameras in law enforcement?

Schneider says there is a presiding belief that the presence of body cameras will influence what transpires between civilians and law enforcement officers. Specifically, there is an assumption that they serve as a deterrent.

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