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Bitcoin suddenly surges: Is the bear market over?

Confidence has returned to crypto markets after Bitcoin saw a sudden rally to gain more than 23% this week to trade around $77,559 at the time of writing. The price briefly topped $79,000 on Friday.

Charting platform Barchart highlighted on Thursday that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price had crossed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025.

The 200-day moving average is widely used to gauge longer-term market trends, with moves above the indicator viewed as a sign of bullish momentum. Many now believe/hope the cycle has finally flipped positive.

Ethereum gained 31%, Solana gained 28% and XRP surged an astonishing 53%.

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The Bitcoin and Ether ETFs took more than $2.61 billion in inflows between them last week, and Micheal Saylor’s Bitcoin investments via Strategy have crossed the breakeven point of $75,385 — officially returning him to the status of far-sighted Bitcoin visionary, rather than degenerate financial engineer. Polymarket odds of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 before 2027 hit 48%.

Bitcoin’s weekly price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

The rally in crypto prices was also reflected in the share prices of publicly listed crypto related firms including Canaan, Metaplanet, Coinbase and Robinhood which all saw double digit gains.

US debt policy sees rush to crypto and precious metals

The US debt pile crossed $40 trillion this week, and there’s absolutely no plan to balance the budget or to pay it down apart from a vague aspiration to grow the economy. The annual cost of paying interest on the debt has exceeded the cost of Medicare and is second only to social security as the Government’s largest expense.

The Kobeissi Letter attributed the rapid gains in precious metals and crypto to a combination of inflation, deficit spending and US Treasury policy. Record government deficit spending and the Treasury Department’s pledge to at least double the size of certain debt buyback operations to $4 billion helped drive the rally in both asset classes, Kobeissi argued.

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The founder of the Bridgewater Associates hedge fund, Ray Dalio, believes investors should allocate around 15% of their portfolios to gold and “a bit of Bitcoin” to position for the impending fallout from the US’s debt problems.

“My guess, which I suppose will be a bad one, is that [a US debt crisis] will come in three years, give or take two, if the course we’re on is not changed,” said Dalio. 

White House meeting with crypto leaders seeks CLARITY

US President Donald Trump has once again called for the passage of the CLARITY Act, following a meeting with crypto company executives including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Gemini co-founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. Trump said.

He urged members of Congress to pass “a fair version” of the bill to keep the US “ahead of China.” The market structure bill, passed by the House of Representatives in July 2025, is up for a procedural vote on September 15 that will require 60 votes in favor.

“It’s very bipartisan, I would say,” said Trump. “Lot of Democrats support.”

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However Democrat Senators appear unlikely to pass the bill without further concessions on ethics provision by Trump. “I think, unfortunately, what the President means is fair to him,“ said Senator Ruben Gallego. “The president doesn’t just get to decide what level of regulation he gets.“

Trump also managed to goose the price of Hyperliquid by 20% at the meeting by revealing: “I understand that Mike [Selig, CFTC chair] is also working to bring Hyperliquid into the United States in a fully compliant and legal fashion.”

SEC unveils proposal that could spark new ICO boom

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has proposed new rules for the cryptocurrency industry that could put pressure on lawmakers to pass the CLARITY Act or spark a new Initial Cryptocurrency Offering boom.

Currently open for a 60 day comment period, the rules offer exemptions to crypto projects that allow the issuance of up to $5 million in tokens during a four-year period, and up to $75 million during a 12-month period with stricter reporting and structure rules. There is also a safe harbor proposal exempting cryptocurrencies from being treated as ”investment contracts.”

Commissioner Hester M. Peirce said that a “whole generation has struggled” with the SEC’s application of, “a set of inapt rules to crypto.” She added the SEC’s new crypto guidelines mark an important step toward “putting clear, sensible, enforceable rules in place for crypto offerings.”

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CFTC chair vows to create its own crypto rules too

Michael Selig, who chairs the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said the commission would move forward on crypto regulations if the CLARITY Act fails to pass the Senate. Selig said he had already directed staff to allow registered and non-registered entities to offer “crypto asset trading on a leveraged or margined basis” and explore developer protections.

“We’re going to give CLARITY its breathing room for a vote, but if the Democrats cannot support a bipartisan work product, which reflects compromises from both sides of the aisle, and ultimately send a fair version of the bill to the President’s desk, then rest assured, I will direct CFTC staff to move swiftly to propose these new rules for the industry,” said Selig.

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is up 23.5% to trade at $77,559, Ethereum (ETH) is up 31.1% to trade at $2,456 and XRP (XRP) is up 53.3% to $1.52. The total market cap is at $2.63 trillion according to CoinMarketCap.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin winners of the week are Pump.fun (PUMP) with a 98.9% gain, Ethena (ENA) on 98.3%, and Stacks (STX) on 94.8%.

The top three altcoin losers of the week are JUST (JST) which was down 4.3%, MemeCore (M) down 2.9% and Sun (SUN) down 1%.

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Top Prediction of the Week

Standard Chartered says $100K Bitcoin year-end call may be ‘too low’

Bitcoin may move toward its all-time high of $126,000 before the end of the year, with the recovery potentially accelerating after Oct. 6, according to Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered.

Kendrick said in a Friday note that the latest rally has been driven largely by short liquidations, while inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also started to recover. He said low open interest could leave room for more investors to return as prices rise.

“For the first time this year there is now a risk my end year forecast (of USD100k) is too low,” Kendrick wrote.

Top FUD of the Week

Most Americans say Trump family crypto investments are not ‘appropriate’

A new poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos found that a majority of respondents in the US believed it was not “appropriate” for US President Donald Trump and his family to earn billions through cryptocurrency investments while in office. 

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According to the results of the poll of 1,166 people between Aug. 14-17, 63% of the respondents said it wasn’t appropriate for Trump and his family to earn money from crypto. Notably, 69% of Republicans polled said it was appropriate, while an overwhelming majority of Democrats, 92%, responded negatively.

Bitget CEO sees Bitcoin near current levels at year-end, doubts US will buy BTC

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen expects Bitcoin to remain broadly around current levels through the end of the year despite its recent surge, citing interest rates and broader macroeconomic conditions as key factors shaping the cryptocurrency’s outlook.

Cointelegraph host interviews Bitget CEO Gracy Chen. Source: Trade Secrets

She pointed to the possibility of higher interest rates as one of a number of factors that could pressure prices.

“If any of that happens, the price should go down, at least theoretically,” Chen said, adding that BTC has become increasingly integrated with traditional finance and sensitive to broader macroeconomic conditions.

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Chen predicted that BTC could finish the year $10,000 to $20,000 above or below current levels.

MANTRA token sinks 18% to record low amid blockchain halt

MANTRA’s native token sank to an all-time low of $0.004126 around 11:00 pm UTC on Thursday shortly before MANTRA Chain stopped producing blocks and its team announced a precautionary halt over an unexplained incident.

MANTRA said Friday it was “aware of an incident affecting MANTRA Chain” and had halted the network as a precaution while it investigated. “We don’t have a root cause or timeline to share yet,” the project said, adding that all endpoints and transactions were frozen. 

The halt prevents assets from moving on MANTRA Chain and has prompted affected exchanges to pause deposits and withdrawals, with no timeline given for either service to resume. On Aug. 22 MANTRA said it the “vulnerability in the Cosmos-EVM module has been fixed, the network has resumed, and no user funds were affected.”

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Cointelegraph publishes long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Some articles contain affiliate links, from which Cointelegraph may earn a commission. These relationships do not influence which products we review or our editorial conclusions. Content published in here does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence.

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HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) has significantly increased its scrutiny of UK crypto users during the 2025-2026 financial year.

The tax authority reportedly sent more than 81,000 warning letters to holders it suspects may have unpaid tax, the BBC reported after reviewing a freedom of information request.

UK Holders on Notice

The number is nearly three times higher than the 27,714 letters sent in 2024. HMRC believes a large share of the unpaid tax relates to gains made during the crypto bull run between 2022 and 2025. The tax authority has reminded recipients that obligations can arise when crypto is sold, given away, exchanged, or used to make purchases.

Failure to pay can result in penalties of up to 100% of the tax owed, in addition to interest. Meanwhile, offshore transfers potentially carry greater consequences.

The crackdown is also set to become broader as HMRC prepares to receive new powers in 2027. Offshore firms will be required to hand over customer information to the UK tax authority, which estimates the measure could raise £315 million (or $430 million) by 2030.

Neela Chauhan, a partner at accounting firm UHY Hacker Young, told the BBC that many traders are young and have had little previous experience dealing with HMRC. She said some operate on the assumption that the agency has limited visibility into their crypto activity. Chauhan also said authorities suspect many investors of evading tax and suggested that identifying unpaid liabilities among wealthy holders could become considerably easier once the new powers take effect.

While HMRC is tightening oversight, banking access is becoming a serious concern for the industry.

Banking Roadblocks

Earlier this month, Parliament’s Crypto and Digital Assets All-Party Parliamentary Group asked the chief executives of major UK banks to explain how they deal with cryptocurrency businesses. Labour MP Gurinder Singh Josan and Lord Vaizey of Didcot sent the letter after hearing repeated complaints from firms unable to open bank accounts, alongside reports of restrictions on payments.

The group asked banks about their policies, transaction limits, reasons behind those decisions, and whether the country’s incoming crypto rules could change their approach. The MPs accepted that banks must tackle financial crime and protect customers, but asserted that firms should be judged on their individual risk rather than simply being part of the sector. Vaizey called the banking problems “an unnecessary piece of friction.”

Research from the UK Cryptoasset Business Council found that banks were blocking or delaying around 40% of attempted transfers to digital asset exchanges.

The post UK Sends 81,000 Crypto Tax Warnings as HMRC Targets Unpaid Bull Run Gains appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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An artificial intelligence (AI) security firm went public with a Ledger Ethereum app bug. Ledger says it had already fixed the flaw quietly, two weeks earlier.

Chief technology officer Charles Guillemet called the disclosure fear-mongering. The patch shipped on August 12 with a one-line note and no security bulletin.

What the Ledger Ethereum App Bug Actually Did

Ledger sells one core promise. The screen shows you what you are signing. That promise has a name. Ledger calls it clear signing, and it turns raw transaction code into plain words on the device screen.

TestMachine says it found a way around that. The firm builds an AI agent called Azimuth that hunts exploits in smart contracts. On its own EVMBench benchmark, Azimuth catches 86.3% of known bugs with roughly 2.7% false positives.

Here is the flaw in plain terms. A malicious website could send the device a second command while you were still reading the first one.

The channel between browser and device is called the Application Protocol Data Unit, or APDU. It kept listening during the review. So it accepted the swap.

You would read a small transfer on screen. Then you would tap approve. And you would actually sign an unlimited token approval to a stranger.

That last part is why this matters. Chainalysis has traced roughly $1 billion in crypto stolen through approval phishing since May 2021. Those victims signed the approvals themselves.

TestMachine says it confirmed the bug on a Ledger Flex. Ledger has sold more than 7 million devices across 180 countries.

Ledger’s Donjon Team Says It Got There First

Guillemet flips the timeline. Donjon is Ledger’s in-house hacking team. He says it caught the bug with its own AI tools and shipped the fix first.

The public changelog backs the date. Version 1.22.2 landed on Aug. 12. Its entire security note says “Security issues.”

Donjon has published 22 numbered security bulletins. None of them covers this bug. The latest, dated June 4, deals with a Monero key-recovery issue instead.

That silence is the gap TestMachine walked into. Ledger closed the hole, then never told owners what it had closed.

Guillemet’s sharper complaint is about manners. He says TestMachine contacted the bounty program only after the patch shipped. It never spoke with the bounty team.

“…Then they published a thread implying the problem is unsolved. It is not. That’s not security research. That’s manufacturing fear for attention,” Charles Guillemet, Ledger CTO remarked.

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TestMachine praised the speed of the fix and turned down the reward. Ledger pays bounties in Bitcoin, at an amount it sets case by case.

AI Found the Bug Twice, But Humans Still Fought

Both sides used machine learning to reach the same defect. That is the part worth watching.

Ledger has made this argument before. Its executives have said for months that AI attackers threaten wallets more than weak hardware does.

Guillemet drew his line at discipline.

“AI-speed research only makes the ecosystem safer if the people doing it still follow basic security principles. Disclose responsibly. Verify before you publish. Don’t confuse noise with a finding.”

The fight itself is familiar. Security firms have gone loud after hacking a Trezor device, and CertiK researchers fought Kraken over disclosure terms in 2024.

So is the flaw. Back in January 2021, Donjon disclosed that this same Ethereum app failed to show transaction data for unsupported assets. Same app, same lesson. What you saw was not what you signed.

AI now surfaces these bugs in hours. Vendors and researchers still coordinate at human speed. That gap is where this argument lives.

For owners, the fix is dull. Open Ledger Live, update the Ethereum app, and check that it reads 1.22.2.

The post AI Firm Exposes Ledger Bug, CTO Calls It Fear-Mongering After Quiet Fix appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Crypto investors may be underestimating where the industry is heading, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, who has pointed to three mistakes he sees in the market right now.

In a recent post, Hougan said that investors are using today’s market size, established brands, and current activity to judge crypto’s future. Those are normally reasonable approaches, but the space is evolving so quickly that these assumptions are becoming outdated.

Investors Missing the Bigger Market

His first point is that investors are underestimating what crypto applications could eventually be used for. Uniswap, for example, was built as a platform for trading cryptocurrencies, but Hougan said it should not necessarily be valued only against the roughly $2 trillion market. As stocks, bonds, real estate, and other assets move onto blockchains, the addressable market for platforms such as Uniswap could become much larger.

The stock and bond markets are worth about $150 trillion and $350 trillion, respectively. Tapping these spaces could create an opportunity roughly 100x larger than crypto alone. Hougan said the same applies to applications such as Hyperliquid, Aave and Chainlink, which investors often view simply as crypto platforms.

The second mistake is assuming that the biggest TradFi companies will eventually take over crypto-native businesses. The exec pointed to PayPal’s stablecoin launch in 2023 as an example. Despite its global brand and position in payments, PYUSD only accounts for 1% of the stablecoin market, while Tether and Circle dominate 88%.

Fidelity faced a similar situation after launching its crypto custody service in 2019. While Fidelity has performed well in the market, Coinbase has become the largest crypto custodian in the US. The same goes for CME’s position in crypto derivatives and Bakkt, which was backed by Intercontinental Exchange, as examples of traditional finance companies that did not end up dominating their respective markets.

He said crypto-native firms have an advantage because they tend to move faster, focus entirely on crypto, and already have users and trust within the sector.

100x More Transactions?

The third mistake is using current transaction volumes to estimate how much activity blockchains will eventually handle. Tokenized stocks could trade around the clock, rather than during current market hours, with AI agents eventually monitoring portfolios and executing trades on behalf of investors. US stocks currently trade for 33 hours a week, compared with 168 hours in a 24/7 market.

While this alone does not mean volume will rise 5x, Hougan believes that the combination of round-the-clock trading and AI-driven activity could push stock transactions 10x higher. He added,

“I can imagine 50x or 100x.”

There exists a similar opportunity in payments, where activity involving AI agents could far exceed current levels. While higher volumes may bring lower fees, Hougan asserted that transaction growth of this scale is likely to more than offset that pressure.

The Bitwise CIO isn’t the only one pointing to artificial intelligence as a potential catalyst for crypto. Back in June, Binance founder CZ said that AI agents could rely on blockchain payments because TradFi systems often require human authentication and are not designed for autonomous software.

He expects agentic trading and payments to emerge within months, while AI-related activity could also add to blockchain trading volumes rather than compete with crypto.

The post Three Crypto Investing Mistakes Could Be Hiding a Much Bigger Opportunity appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Cathie Wood has kept buying Circle as the stock fell 42% in a year. On Sunday she said why. Wall Street analysts who built their careers on Visa and Mastercard, she argued, cannot understand the company.

Circle issues USDC, a digital dollar backed by cash and short-term US government debt. Wood runs ARK Invest, and Circle is now the biggest crypto bet in her flagship fund.

Wood’s Case Against the Analysts

Wood was replying to a chart built from Artemis data, where analyst Alex Obchakevich indicated that the market was changing its mind about who actually earns money on stablecoins.

It tracked the three payment firms over a year. Visa was up about 5%, Mastercard about 1%. Circle was down 42%.

Though CRCL has appreciated 84% since its IPO, this one-year chart illustrates the inefficiency of public equity markets in the short term. Many financial services analysts have built their long-term track records off of $V and $MA and cannot fathom Circle, the disrupter,” Wood challenged.

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She then reached for history. Mastercard is up roughly 150 times since it listed, she said, and Visa roughly 33 times.

Analysts who told clients to buy those dips looked brilliant. Technology, not analyst skill, is now rewriting payments, and Circle should gain.

Her History Lesson Holds Up, But One Number Does Not

Both multiples survive a check. Mastercard priced its 2006 float at $39 a share. It later split its stock 10 ways, so that entry is worth $3.90 in today’s money. Against Friday’s close of $580.63, that is 149 times.

Visa sold shares at $44 in March 2008 and split them four ways in 2015, an adjusted $11. At $371.04 on Friday, that is 34 times. Wood’s arithmetic is sound.

Her Circle figure is not. Circle priced its June 2025 float at $31. The stock closed Friday at $87.98. That is a gain of about 184%, not 84%.

Wall Street Cannot Agree What Circle Is Worth

The sell side is not ignoring Circle, which weakens her framing. Of 21 analysts covering it, 11 call it a strong buy and two a buy. Five say hold. Three say sell.

Their price targets are stranger still. The most bullish is $173. The most bearish is $37. That is a 4.7-fold gap on the same company on the same day. The average sits at $98.61.

Analysts covering a mature payment network do not disagree by that much. On Circle they have no shared method. Much of its money comes from interest on reserves, which shrinks when rates fall. The rest rides on how fast digital dollars get used.

The accounts show that split. Revenue grew about 37% and the company is profitable after a Q2 earnings surprise in early August. Its market value still fell 30%.

Competition muddies it further. Circle is building a four-layer financial stack on its Arc blockchain. Open USD, a rival stablecoin consortium of more than 140 firms, wants the same rails.

Wood is not hedging. ARK’s flagship fund held 3,931,968 Circle shares on Friday, worth $329 million and 5.14% of the portfolio. That beats its Coinbase stake. She may be proved right. For now her money says what the $37 and $243 targets say. Nobody has settled what Circle is.

The post After Buying Circle Through a 42% Drop, Cathie Wood Says Analysts Cannot Fathom It appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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CyberLeek claims it will trigger an automatic worldwide release of a playable GTA VI build if legal action forces the group offline, even as its associated meme coin explodes 1,400%.

A fact-check has since found that the key piece of evidence behind that specific threat was fabricated.

What CyberLeek Claims and What’s Been Debunked

According to initial reports, complete copies of the build have already been distributed across global servers and hard drives, ready to be deployed automatically if it faces legal action or is shut down.

A leaked clip showing the protagonist, Jason, firing bullets into a wall to spell “LEEK” strongly suggests real-time control of an in-development version rather than pre-recorded footage. Additional clips have shown flying sequences over Vice City, high-speed driving, combat, and map details from the Leonida setting.

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CyberLeek frames its actions as a protest against digital-only releases, “fake” single-player DLC, and the loss of offline access after server shutdowns.

A recent fact-check found that the specific “Notice to Rockstar” screenshot, cited as proof of the automatic release threat, does not appear on CyberLeek’s actual website and is considered fabricated.

Take-Two’s lawyers have escalated their legal response accordingly. A New York federal judge already approved subpoenas compelling Microsoft and Discord to hand over account and device data tied to the CyberLeek persona by September 4, and the company has since issued a similar subpoena to X, seeking to unmask the account behind the leaks.

Why the Meme Coin Is Drawing Scrutiny

Alongside the leaks, the associated Solana-based meme coin, CYBERLEEK, exploded in value. Launched around August 15, shortly before the first major footage dropped, the token has seen multiple surges driven by viral attention.

Early pumps exceeded 5,000% in short periods, with recent 24-hour gains surpassing 1,400%. Market cap has climbed from near-zero levels to $22 million amid heavy trading volume, with trading volume often exceeding $112 million, according to CoinGecko data.

Videos watermarked with QR codes and calls to buy the token link the hype directly to the leaks. Holders have even voted with CYBERLEEK donations to decide the next content drop, tying continued leaks to trading activity.

Critics, including consumer advocacy groups, have labeled the campaign a pump-and-dump scheme exploiting GTA VI excitement.

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Rockstar’s official Extended Look is scheduled for August 27 on Netflix, with the full game still set for November 19, 2026, on consoles.

As legal pressure mounts and speculation swirls, the dual narrative of high-stakes leaks and crypto frenzy continues to dominate gaming and crypto communities.

The post CYBERLEEK Meme Coin Explodes 1,400% Amid GTA VI Leak Controversy appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Japan’s 10-year government bond yield (JP10Y) touched 2.945%, its highest level since September 1996. The yen has since slipped back toward 159 per dollar, undoing almost half of this month’s rescue rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) has ignored all of it. The pioneer crypto is up 22% in seven days. That gap between Japan’s stress and crypto’s calm is the real story.

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A 30-Year Record, Broken Twice Over

Data puts the peak at 2.945%, a level last seen in September 1996. Japan’s 30-year yield hit 4.115% the same morning.

“Japan’s bond market is flashing another major warning…10-year government bond yield has surged above 2.95% for the first time since 1996…At the same time, the Yen has given back much of its recent intervention-driven gains, adding another potential source of pressure on Treasuries,” analysts at the Global Markets Investor noted.

The cause is simple. Prices are climbing again. Core inflation reached 1.8% in July, up from 1.6% in June.

Strip out food and fuel and the figure was 1.9%. Traders read that as a green light for the Bank of Japan.

The BOJ meets on Sept. 17 and 18. Economists widely expect it to lift its policy rate from 1% to 1.25%, its next step in the exit from ultra-low rates.

Why Bitcoin Traders Watch the Yen

For years, investors borrowed yen at almost no cost. They swapped it for dollars and bought riskier assets. Traders call this the carry trade.

The Bank for International Settlements sized yen loans to offshore non-banks at roughly $250 billion. Broader measures reached about $500 billion.

When the yen jumps, those positions turn loss-making within hours.

“Your entire annualized carry just wiped out in one move,” Praneet Shah said. He is global head of FX options trading at Goldman Sachs.

August 2024 showed the damage. Bitcoin opened that month near $64,600 and wicked down to $49,000 on Aug. 5, according to VanEck. Tokyo’s TOPIX index fell 12% in one session.

The Trigger Has Not Arrived Yet

Tokyo and Washington intervened together in early August, their first joint operation since 2011. Goldman strategist Karen Fishman estimated Japan spent about $85 billion over two days.

It bought roughly three weeks. The yen reached 155.20, then drifted back above 158.

Japan funded part of that defence by selling US debt. Its Treasury holdings fell $26.4 billion in June to $1.117 trillion, the deepest monthly cut by any country.

American borrowing costs followed. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.74% on August 21, and Washington has since widened its long-dated bond buybacks.

“The debt CRISIS is not just a US story,” the analysts added.

The Bitcoin market price sits near $77,355 through all of this. Ray Dalio reads the same debt data as a reason to own Bitcoin, pairing a small position with 10% to 15% in gold.

History suggests the danger comes from a yen that surges, not one that sinks. Right now it is sinking. September is where Japan’s overlapping battles could flip that.

The post Japan Borrowing Costs Reach 1996 Highs: Will the Weak Yen Hurt Bitcoin? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz jumped almost 400% in two weeks. The report landed on Saturday, with oil markets shut. Monday is the first chance traders get to price it.

On the surface, that should ease supply fears and pull crude lower. More ships means more oil. Yet the shipping data carries a catch that argues the drop may never arrive.

Hormuz Traffic Recovers But Stays Far Below Pre-War Levels

The surge is real, and it is easy to check. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the British naval body that tracks merchant shipping in the Gulf, publishes a weekly transit count.

In the week to August 7, it logged 39 full transits. A week later, 151. In the week to August 21, 192, according to its latest report. That is a rise of 392% in 14 days, so the headline number holds up.

The baseline is another matter. Before the war, roughly 20.9 million barrels a day moved through the strait, EIA figures show. That is close to a fifth of everything the world burns.

Today’s traffic sits about 90% below that mark, by UKMTO’s own reckoning. Going from almost nothing to slightly more than almost nothing still produces a spectacular percentage.

Most of the returning ships hug Oman’s coast, on a corridor backed by Washington and rejected by Tehran, which cannot levy a toll on it.

The arrangement has a precedent. In 1987 the US reflagged 11 Kuwaiti tankers and sent the Navy to escort them through the same water. The first convoy sailed on July 22. Two days later the tanker Bridgeton struck a mine.

“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told CNN.

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Why the 400% Is Weaker Than It Looks

Start with how the count is made. UKMTO tracks vessels by their transponders, and in a war zone many captains simply switch them off.

Windward, a maritime data firm, recorded nine ships crossing the southern corridor dark overnight on August 21. It called that the largest single night on record.

So part of the 400% is not new ships at all. It is old ships turning their signals back on. The count has risen faster than the cargo, a gap earlier analyst timelines for Hormuz had already flagged.

Barrels tell the sober version. Energy Secretary Chris Wright puts outflows near 9 million a day. Rory Johnston, who writes the Commodity Context newsletter, reckons the peak is closer to 7 million.

Either way, the strait is running at under half its pre-war norm.

Refined fuel is tighter still. The US diesel crack spread, the margin refiners earn turning crude into diesel, hit an all-time high of $102.20 on August 17, Reuters reported. In calmer periods it sits in the teens or low twenties.

That squeeze, rather than any shortage of crude itself, is what has been setting Brent crude prices.

Both benchmarks gained about 5% across the week, so crude enters Monday with momentum behind it rather than against it.

Prices held up once before, when supertankers resumed Hormuz transit earlier in the war. That remains the closest precedent for Monday.

WTI and Brent Test the May Downtrend Before Monday

US crude spot settled at $87.57 on Friday, up 0.43%. UK crude spot closed at $92.40, up 0.75%. Both are spot contracts, the series these charts track, and they run a little under the front-month futures.

Those are the levels Monday opens from. Each sits just below a descending trendline drawn from the May highs. Brent has already breached its line, while WTI trades a fraction beneath its own.

Futures reopen on Sunday evening in New York, which makes Monday the first full session. It opens with a policy headline attached.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called a Monday press conference to unveil new Iran sanctions. Mohsen Rezaei, who runs Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has warned Tehran will strike at the interests of any country that joins in.

Speaking in South Carolina on Friday, President Donald Trump restated his claim on the waterway.

“We don’t even know if we won, because I view the Strait of Hormuz as an American territory right now,” Trump, quoted by UPI.

So which way does Monday cut? Sanctions restrict supply, and that argues for higher prices rather than lower ones.

For oil to break lower, the package would have to land softer than trailed, or carry a hint that talks are back on.

A rejection at the trendline would be the first confirmation. It keeps May’s pattern of lower highs alive and puts $71.25 on WTI and $77.78 on Brent back in view.

A close above the line does the opposite. It would mark the first genuine break since the war began, and every Brent price forecast built on that downtrend would need rewriting.

The post 400% Strait Traffic Surge Eases Supply Fears, Will Oil Break Lower Monday? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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