Bitcoin (BTC) starts the final week of August near its highest levels since mid-May as its bear-market recovery reaches a critical stage.

Key points:

• Bitcoin sees a weekly candle close above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since November 2025.
• Amid its best August gains in almost a decade, BTC/USD returns investor cohorts to net profit, while new money enters at $73,000.
• Fed chair Kevin Warsh is in the spotlight ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.
• US PCE data will be released on Wednesday as markets continue to respond to last week’s US Treasury debt buyback.
• Investor capital returns to exchange-traded products as Bitcoin ETF netflows hit $1.9 billion last week.

Bitcoin scrapes weekly close above key resistance

Bitcoin reached $79,550 last week, its highest levels since early May as a five-day rally brought gains of up to 27%. BTC/USD closed last week at $77,727 on Bitstamp, per data from TradingView. This signified a reclaim of its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), a key resistance trendline that currently sits at $77,752.

The 50-week EMA is commonly brought into focus by traders during Bitcoin bear markets. The last candle close above this crucial line of resistance was in early November 2025. In prior bear markets, BTC has retested the 50-week EMA before capitulating into its ultimate macro lows. This has meant some traders remain unconvinced by last week’s strong price action.

BTC/USD one-week chart with 50 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Prior to the close, crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that not only the 50-week EMA but the entire area around $80,000 figured as resistance for bulls to overcome, while price so far has topped out lower.

“Each Bear Market Relief Rally thus far would retrace sharply in the week following a strong breakout rally,” he wrote in ongoing X analysis. 

“Next weeks will be crucial. But maybe even already next week we’ll know whether Bitcoin can sustain these highs or not.”

An accompanying chart showed what Rekt Capital subsequently called a series of macro lower highs, potentially reinforcing the bear market despite recent strength.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on traders’ expectations of 2026 playing out in a similar manner to previous bear markets, with 2022 showing the most similarities in terms of timing. 

“If history repeats, Bitcoin will try to get as close as possible to ~$93,000 in 2027. But first, Bitcoin needs to fully confirm its Bear Market bottom and fully confirm a break of the Macro Downtrend,” Rekt Capital added.

BTC price on track for best August in nine years

Bitcoin consolidated over the weekend, with price circling $77,500 at the time of writing, still up 22% month-to-date in its best performing August since 2017, per data from CoinGlass.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

The run-up saw the weekly candle reclaim several key price points, including the aggregate cost basis for short-term holders (STHs) — wallets holding a UTXO for less than 155 days — at $68,700. Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant thus calculated STH net profitability at just over 11%.

“At the same time, Long-Term Holder profitability moved from approximately breakeven to +18.5%, while New Money profitability rose from -1.4% to +12.7%,” it reported on Monday.

Examining the cost basis of UTXOs as a whole, CryptoQuant noted that so-called “new money” now has a breakeven point at $73,000, above both the STH and LTH cost basis, leaving less margin for downside protection should BTC/USD reverse to attempt to find new support lower.

“That makes the 68K-73K region the key area to watch. Holding above it would suggest that the profitability reset is becoming structurally durable. Losing it would quickly push a large portion of recent buyers back into loss,” it added.

Bitcoin UTXO distribution by cohort age (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Fed’s Warsh faces the music at Jackson Hole

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve and chair Kevin Warsh this week as the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium gets underway. 

The event, which will feature central bankers from over 70 countries, sees Warsh’s first keynote speech as Fed chair and his first public speaking appearance since the press conference that followed the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Warsh has maintained a tight-lipped stance on financial policy, especially when it comes to future interest-rate changes — a topic to which crypto and risk assets are sensitive. Recent inflation data has supported a softening of policy going forward, but the ever-present threat of oil-price spikes from the US-Iran war has kept markets wary. 

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows 63.1% odds of rates remaining at their current 3.50-3.75% level after the September FOMC meeting.

Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Speaking to CNBC last week, Thierry Wizman, global foreign exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, warned that Warsh now had to juggle the influence of the Treasury with his plan to reduce the market involvement of the Fed.

Wizman told the network that “were Warsh to signal that he would stay ‘dovish’ indefinitely, it could be self-defeating for him and the Treasury, since inflation breakevens would rise further, perhaps undoing the stability in the nominal long-term yields that [Treasury Secretary] Scott Bessent is trying to achieve.”

A survey of fund managers by Bank of America, quoted by Barchart and others, produced 72% odds of no rate hikes occurring before the US midterm elections in November. On policy, consensus coalesced around a “no landing” scenario over the next 12 months — where the economy avoids recession amid strong growth and low unemployment. 

Yield curve control talk returns after Treasury debt move

Beyond geopolitics, a move by the US Treasury last week to at least double the size of its debt buyback purchases to $4 billion per operation was the key market mover last week. The announcement sparked a Bitcoin short squeeze that went on to wipe out a record $3.1 billion of crypto short positions over two days.

The extent of the reaction sparked suggestions that Bitcoin was once again anticipating global liquidity-regime changes amid the rising cost of government debt financing worldwide.

“The intervention ignited a move in assets sensitive to the outlook for liquidity, including gold and Bitcoin. That hints at market concerns over currency debasement should measures like quantitative easing make a return to contain interest rates,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic.

Mosaic argued that the intervention represented not a mere liquidity move but a form of yield curve control (YCC), with short-term bonds issued to cover the cost of the added buybacks. Crypto commentators have long expected YCC to be all but guaranteed to prevent government bankruptcy.

“YCC is the end game. When it is finally implicitly or explicitly declared, it’s game over for the value of the USD vs. gold and more importantly Bitcoin,” Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, forecast in a 2022 blog post. 

“YCC is how we get to $1 million Bitcoin and $10,000 to $20,000 gold.”

The day prior to Warsh’s appearance, meanwhile, brings a crucial piece of US macroeconomic data that could skew the mood for markets. 

The July print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, due for release on Wednesday, is known to be the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge. In June it saw its first month-on-month drop since 2020.

Consensus around the upcoming print is for a 0.1% monthly increase, with the year-on-year increase cooling further to 3.6% versus 3.7% in June. 

PCE index one-month % change (screenshot). Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Bitcoin ETFs see strongest inflows in 10 months

Crypto fund inflows remain highly reactive to price volatility, with last week’s inflows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) breaking records.

Related: Bitcoin has ‘largely purged’ froth that preceded 50% drop from $126K: BlackRock

Data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors shows the ETF cohort taking in $1.9 billion over the week’s five trading days — the strongest weekly tally since October 2025, when Bitcoin hit its latest all-time highs of $126,200.

Thursday saw particularly strong performance as BTC/USD extended gains beyond $70,000, with BlackRock’s ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), seeing net inflows of more than half a billion dollars.

“We saw net inflows on every trading day last week, which suggests renewed investor interest in Bitcoin,” Gracie Lin, chief executive officer of crypto exchange OKX SG, told Bloomberg. 

“The question now is whether that momentum will hold. After such a strong move in Bitcoin, some profit-taking wouldn’t be surprising.”

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

The results heavily contrast with activity just two months ago, with June seeing unprecedented net outflows of more than $4.5 billion. At the end of last week, total August inflows stood at $2.38 billion, a new year-to-date record.

Circle is drawing fresh investor attention as analysts at Bernstein argue that USDC is entering a new expansion phase—one that could translate into meaningful momentum for the stablecoin issuer over the next year. In a research note published Monday, the firm pointed to a sharp pickup in USDC supply growth and an improvement in the stablecoin’s role within dollar-backed payments.

Bernstein said USDC is showing signs of what it called “digital dollar reflation” after its supply rose by roughly $2 billion in seven days, reversing a six-month stretch of stagnant or declining growth. The brokerage reiterated an Outperform rating on Circle and a $140 price target, implying about 60% upside from current levels. Circle shares have risen roughly 40% over the past month.

Key takeaways

• Bernstein cited a roughly $2 billion USDC supply increase over seven days, calling it “digital dollar reflation.”
• The firm maintained a $140 price target on Circle and an Outperform rating, expecting a boost over the next 12 months.
• Bernstein said USDC’s transaction presence improved, with its share of adjusted stablecoin volume rising from about 40% in 2025 to more than 60% so far in 2026, surpassing USDt by that metric.
• Analysts pointed to catalysts including renewed crypto market activity, clearer US regulation, tokenized capital markets, and stablecoins gaining traction in payments.
• Bernstein also noted early signs that AI agents may be using stablecoins in payments.

USDC supply and “digital dollar reflation”

The crux of Bernstein’s bullish case is an apparent shift in USDC’s growth dynamics. After months in which supply growth was described as stagnant or negative, the firm highlighted a sudden acceleration—about $2 billion added to USDC supply in just one week. For investors, that kind of reversal matters because stablecoin supply growth can be a leading indicator of broader on-chain and off-chain usage, which in turn can support the economics of issuance and ecosystem activity.

Bernstein’s note framed the move as “digital dollar reflation,” suggesting that demand for dollar-denominated digital assets may be strengthening again. The firm did not position this as a one-off event, instead describing it as the beginning of a broader growth cycle that could play out over the next year.

Why transaction share may be the bigger story

Beyond supply, Bernstein emphasized USDC’s increasing share of stablecoin transaction activity. While USDC remains the second-largest dollar-backed stablecoin by market capitalization, it trails Tether’s USDt (USDT). Still, Bernstein argued that USDC has gained ground in transactions, not just valuation.

According to the note, USDC’s share of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume rose from roughly 40% in 2025 to more than 60% so far in 2026, overtaking USDt on that measure. That matters because transaction volume is often treated as a proxy for real usage—transfers, swaps, and payments—rather than purely for holding patterns.

Put differently, Bernstein’s thesis suggests a divergence: even if USDC doesn’t lead by market cap, it may be winning by activity. Traders and businesses usually care about that distinction when stablecoins are used for settlement, routing, and payments where liquidity and flow can influence costs and reliability.

What Bernstein says could fuel the next growth cycle

Bernstein attributed the potential next phase of stablecoin growth to several overlapping factors. In its view, improved sentiment toward crypto more broadly could lift demand for stablecoins, while greater regulatory clarity in the United States could remove friction for issuers, partners, and regulated institutions.

The analysts also pointed to the expansion of tokenized capital markets and growing stablecoin adoption for payments. In practical terms, tokenization and payment use-cases can increase stablecoin demand by embedding dollar-denominated tokens into workflows that previously relied on bank transfers, prepaid balances, or legacy settlement rails.

Notably, Bernstein added that there are early signs of stablecoin use in payments made by artificial intelligence agents. While still an early signal, it aligns with a broader market pattern: as automation increases the number of transactions performed by software, stablecoins can become the unit of account for machine-to-machine payments—especially when they need dollar stability rather than crypto volatility.

Circle’s IPO-era volatility and recent fundamentals

Circle’s stock performance has reflected the volatility of public crypto exposure since it went public in June 2025. Bernstein’s note highlighted that the company priced shares at $31 in its IPO and raised roughly $1.1 billion. After an initial surge, the stock retreated toward its IPO level by November 2025 as the wider crypto market downturn weighed on publicly traded companies with sector exposure.

More recently, Circle has continued to report improved financial results. In its most recent quarter, the company reported $701 million in revenue and $48 million in net income, both higher than a year earlier.

For investors evaluating Bernstein’s stablecoin-growth thesis, that backdrop is important: improved operating performance can make it easier for markets to underwrite management’s ability to monetize stablecoin expansion rather than treating it as a purely narrative-driven trade.

Payments, regulation, and the “share of volume” test

Stablecoins sit at the center of several current crypto narratives—regulated dollar settlement, faster payment rails, and the infrastructure layer for tokenized finance. Bernstein’s emphasis on USDC’s transaction share suggests the firm believes the market is now grading stablecoins less on who is biggest by market cap and more on who is being used most in day-to-day activity.

At the same time, the regulatory and adoption catalysts Bernstein cites remain subject to real-world implementation and policy outcomes. That is why the near-term data points investors are likely to watch are continued supply growth, sustained improvements in transaction volume share, and evidence that payments use-cases—whether human-facing commerce or automation-driven transfers—are broadening beyond early experimentation.

For now, the debate centers on whether USDC’s recent supply acceleration and its rising share of transaction volume represent the start of a durable trend. If those metrics continue to climb while Circle’s fundamentals hold up, Bernstein’s “next 12 months” bet could look increasingly credible; if they fade, the market may revert to treating stablecoin growth as cyclical rather than structural.

Bitcoin has climbed above Strategy’s $75,385 average purchase price after gaining roughly 24% last week, making the company’s next treasury decision a key test for the rally, according to Bitfinex analysts.

Bitfinex analysts told crypto.news that Strategy’s treasury activity has become a key signal after the company stopped selling Bitcoin shortly before BTC broke out of its summer trading range.

The company, which remains the largest publicly disclosed corporate Bitcoin holder, had sold BTC over several weeks to meet obligations connected to its preferred securities. Strategy then reported no purchases or sales for the week ending Aug. 16, removing a source of supply as Bitcoin prepared to move above its range.

Price action has since carried BTC above Strategy’s average acquisition cost for the first time since the company’s recent sales began. Its remaining 840,447 BTC were acquired for approximately $63.36 billion, including fees and expenses, at an average price of $75,385 per coin.

A return to accumulation would support the rally by adding corporate spot demand, according to Bitfinex. Renewed sales at higher prices, however, could place fresh supply above the market and make further gains harder to sustain.

Strategy has remained on the sidelines after raising $2B

Strategy’s latest disclosure has shown that the company remained inactive in the Bitcoin market for another week, even as BTC traded above its average purchase price.

As crypto.news reported from its filing, Strategy sold approximately 18.26 million MSTR shares between Aug. 17 and Aug. 23, raising about $2 billion through its at-the-market offering program. The company made no Bitcoin purchases or sales during the period, keeping its holdings at 840,447 BTC.

Most of the proceeds remained in cash. Strategy transferred $300 million to its existing U.S. dollar reserve, placed about $1.59 billion in a new cash account, and spent $136.4 million repurchasing roughly 1.43 million shares of its STRC perpetual preferred stock.

The transactions increased the company’s dollar reserve to $5.1 billion and took its combined cash position, including the new account, to $6.69 billion. Strategy had disclosed a reserve of about $4.8 billion one week earlier, the figure referenced in the Bitfinex report.

By continuing to raise cash without buying Bitcoin, Strategy has not yet provided the positive spot signal described by Bitfinex. The filing also showed that the company refrained from selling into BTC’s latest strength, avoiding the possible overhead pressure identified by the analysts.

Earlier activity had moved in the opposite direction. Between Aug. 3 and Aug. 9, Strategy sold 1,690 BTC for $108.6 million at an average price of $64,262 and used the proceeds to repurchase about 1.15 million STRC shares.

A week earlier, the company sold another 1,638 BTC for approximately $104.7 million. Proceeds from that transaction funded $52.4 million in STRC dividends and about $52.3 million in preferred-stock repurchases.

Bitcoin needs a $73,500 retest to confirm the recovery

With Strategy’s latest filing showing no transaction, Bitfinex analysts placed greater weight on Bitcoin’s cost-basis levels and the quality of demand supporting the breakout.

“The next few weeks carry two clear signals,” the analysts said. They identified $73,500 as the average purchase price of investors who acquired BTC during the past three to six months.

According to the report, a weekly close above that level followed by a successful retest would confirm that Bitcoin has recovered from its summer range. Holding the zone would also leave recent buyers in profit, reducing the chance that a return toward their cost basis produces immediate selling.

The next important area sits near $86,500, where Bitfinex said investors who bought Bitcoin between 18 months and two years ago would reach their average break-even price. Selling from holders waiting to exit at cost could make the level a source of resistance.

On the downside, the analysts identified $64,500 as the average cost of the newest buyer group. A decline below the level would indicate that Bitcoin’s breakout had gone too far on forced purchases, according to Bitfinex, placing the previous summer range back in focus.

Bitcoin’s rally carried the asset from below $64,000 on Aug. 19 to a three-month high near $79,550. The roughly 24% weekly gain was its strongest advance since March 2023, while the move also reclaimed resistance levels around $65,000, $67,000, $70,000, and $73,500.

ETF demand must replace forced Bitcoin buying

Bitfinex described U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and public companies with BTC on their balance sheets as the market’s two main sources of lasting demand. The analysts called the pair the “Two-Complex Spot Bid” because the measure focuses on capital that enters the market and remains invested instead of coins moving between traders.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.9 billion in net inflows during the week ending Aug. 21, including five consecutive inflow sessions. The demand offered evidence that regulated funds were buying alongside traders forced to close bearish positions.

Forced buying still accounted for much of the rally’s speed. As Bitcoin broke through $70,000, a record short-liquidation wave removed nearly $2.7 billion in bearish crypto positions over 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data cited by market analysts.

Short sellers must buy an asset to close liquidated positions, which can accelerate a rally while prices are rising. Bitfinex cautioned that the effect ends once the affected positions have been closed, leaving continued gains dependent on new buyers entering through the spot market.

Onchain participation has not yet supplied clear confirmation. Bitcoin moving across the network remains near its lowest level in eight years, according to the report, indicating that activity among holders has stayed limited despite the price increase.

U.S. investors now face both BTC and MSTR signals

For U.S. investors, Strategy adds a second market signal because its common shares trade on Nasdaq under the MSTR ticker, while spot Bitcoin ETFs provide direct regulated exposure to BTC prices.

Strategy funds parts of their capital structure through U.S. securities markets, including common-stock issuance and several preferred securities. Its weekly Form 8-K disclosures to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission allow investors to track Bitcoin transactions, equity sales, cash allocations, and preferred-stock repurchases.

Under a capital framework adopted in June, Strategy’s board authorized a BTC Monetization Program permitting up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales to help fund its dollar reserve. The framework also included separate $1 billion repurchase authorizations for common and preferred securities, as well as provisions for dividend and interest payments.

Strategy’s new $1.59 billion cash account gives management another source of liquidity. According to the Aug. 24 filing, the money may be used for Bitcoin purchases, preferred dividends, debt obligations, or securities repurchases, though the company did not commit the funds to a specific purpose or provide a deployment timetable.