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Man City win surprising thriller but Sunderland expose growing problem

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For 80 minutes, if plenty were perplexed by an outbreak of extraordinary entertainment, maybe no one was more confused than Erling Haaland. There had been seven goals, but he got none of them. A giant figure in the No 9 shirt scored a hat-trick, but it wasn’t him. By the end, there were two outcomes Haaland recognised only too well. Manchester City won and he had scored.

But they were the only normal elements of an astonishing afternoon. Enzo Maresca’s side extended their 100 per cent start, but in unusual fashion. “I prefer to win 1-0 than 5-3,” said the Italian. He did not get his wish. He had predicted Sunderland would be City’s toughest match of the season so far; he was right in that part, at least.

“Sunderland [against] Arsenal last week was another crazy game,” noted Maresca. The Black Cats have put in colossal efforts against the two title favourites, in contrasting fashion, but with nothing to show for either whereas City are the big winners of this weekend at the summit. They and Arsenal both conceded three. The difference is that City scored five.

Man City looked potent in attack but fragile at the back
Man City looked potent in attack but fragile at the back (PA)

It took Haaland to put enough distance between themselves and Sunderland, a side who mounted not one comeback but a series. The first time Sunderland trailed, they levelled after three minutes, the second after four. Seven minutes after they went behind for a third time, Brian Brobbey’s deflected shot looped on to the bar. He instead completed the rarity of a hat-trick against City two minutes after they scored their fourth.

Ruben Dias was required to hook the ball off the line to prevent Sunderland from levelling it up at 4-4. Even at 5-3, Dan Ballard hit the post. Sunderland had 17 shots, eight on target and an xG of 4.25. “We probably deserved to score two or three more,” said manager Regis Le Bris.

All of which felt more incongruous given the reality that Sunderland had not scored more than once in a game so far this season, or that City had arrived on a run of four consecutive clean sheets.

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Man City will feel they got away with one against Sunderland
Man City will feel they got away with one against Sunderland (Getty)

But then, at kick-off, Antoine Semenyo had yet to score this season and he got two goals. Brobbey was still awaiting his first goal of the campaign and, within an hour, he had become the first player to get a Premier League hat-trick against City since Jamie Vardy six years ago; before that, no one had since Vardy again in 2016.

The Dutchman made history, and it counted for nothing. Not since Roque Santa Cruz in 2007 had anyone got a Premier League hat-trick in a losing cause. Perhaps it will be scant consolation to Sunderland, too, that they fashioned the game of the season so far. “A defeat but we are proud,” added Le Bris.

“We found a way to win,” said Maresca. Haaland was overshadowed, but added another distinction to a long list. He has now scored against all 25 clubs he has faced in the Premier League, though only after initial frustration. On the stroke of half-time, he had rolled a shot wide of an unguarded goal. When he converted Josko Gvardiol’s low centre, the flag was raised. Haaland, famously, is never offside, but VAR proved Gvardiol was not, either. For the second successive Sunday, a Haaland goal from a Gvardiol cross was given after the intervention of technology. This one is less likely to prompt an apology from Howard Webb.

Erling Haaland finally got his goal late on
Erling Haaland finally got his goal late on (AP)

Sunderland wanted a penalty for a possible handball by Elliot Anderson. City had other concerns. “Two of the three goals we conceded were too easy,” said Maresca. They did not defend like possible champions, though maybe that reflected the unique threat of the bruising Brobbey. They – Dias in particular – were battered and bullied by the target man, who was aided by the sleek creativity of Enzo Le Fee and the raw pace of Nilson Angulo.

Yet while Maresca has packed his side with centre-backs, City look fragile. Brobbey’s first goal of the afternoon and the campaign stemmed from Le Fee’s pass, enabling him to power between Ruben Dias and Matheus Nunes. His second came when he was given an open goal after Thomas Meunier sprang the offside trap to centre.

Brian Brobbey ran Man City ragged but still lost despite a hat-trick
Brian Brobbey ran Man City ragged but still lost despite a hat-trick (AP)

City’s back four were caught out by runners again for the third: Granit Xhaka chipping the ball over the defence, Angulo touching the ball to Brobbey for a tap-in. “I am really pleased for him,” said Le Bris. “We were not concerned he didn’t score in the first four games.”

Brobbey showed his potency and City displayed theirs. The scoring was begun by an audacious free kick from an acute angle, executed superbly by Enzo Fernandez. Their advantage was restored when Rayan Cherki drove in a shot after Iliman Ndiaye had won the ball in midfield.

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Antoine Semenyo’s double was crucial for Man City
Antoine Semenyo’s double was crucial for Man City (Getty)

Semenyo’s double could come with regrets for Sunderland: the first a shot drilled through the legs of Kevin Danso, the second when Cherki’s pass bounced off two Sunderland defenders, falling obligingly for the winger to finish.

He never scored in a loan spell for Sunderland. He got a double against them. It was that kind of day.

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UFC 331 Underdog Pick: Why Brunno Ferreira Can Upset Edmen Shahbazyan

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Mar 7, 2026; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Brunno Ferreira (blue gloves) reacts after the fight against Gregory Rodrigues (red gloves) during UFC 326 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn ImagesMar 7, 2026; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Brunno Ferreira (blue gloves) reacts after the fight against Gregory Rodrigues (red gloves) during UFC 326 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for plus money.

Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate UFC fight outcomes — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or 5 total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.

How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.

Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.

Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

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Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC.

Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Brunno Ferreira (+160)

Model Odds: +110

Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Decision (+440)

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In one of the most strange lines of a loaded card in Los Angeles, bettors (or traders) are pushing Edmen Shahbazyan toward a two-to-one favorite in a battle of extremely similar fighters. I don’t get it.

Shahbazyan is the more polished fighter from Xtreme Couture, one of the best MMA gyms in the world under head coach Eric Nicksick. In this same division, his teammate, Sean Strickland, has the belt. But, that’s also been the case for years as “The Golden Boy” has struggled to make his mark at middleweight.

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Shahbazyan’s 9-6 record is far from perfect, and his +0.19 striking success rate (SSR) is fairly flat. When fresh, the striker is long, fast, and dangerous. But he’s proven to have an expiration date in fights, most recently verified in a second-round loss to Gerald Meerschaert. “GM3” has gone on a five-fight losing skid since beating Shahbazyan.

Anytime the middleweight exerts himself early, it ends poorly. He’s gone to a cautious decision in two of his last three fights knowing this. All Brunno Ferreira might have to do here is force action and survive long enough to watch Shahbazyan fade.

“The Hulk” has certainly been good at that. He’s got a 1.63% knockdown rate, and 7 of his 11 UFC-affiliated appearances, including the Contender Series, ended in Round 1. Twice a victim in those scenarios, that’s probably the most dangerous round for him.

But, in deeper waters, Ferreira has proven his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is legitimate with submissions in two of his last five fights. A longer fight? Well, he outlasted former title challenger Marvin Vettori in one of those, too. If this isn’t a quick, clean kickboxing match, Ferreira seems to have a great chance.

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Anecdotally, the Brazilian has struggled at times with discipline and coming to fight week in the best possible conditioning. On a two-fight losing skid, he looked in outstanding shape at weigh-ins. I typically don’t factor in that hard-to-quantify noise, but I think it matters greatly for Ferreira, given his history and his entering a fight like this, where endurance could be a key factor.

The model’s verdict agrees with my assessment. It feels like Shahbazyan’s technique is really expensive when, at the end of the day, these are both powerful strikers with inconsistent defense, submission danger, and questionable gas tanks. I’ve got Edmen a slight favorite (52.5%), but it’s otherwise saying to flip a coin.

If this fight extends to Round 2, Ferreira should be in an excellent position to pull the upset.

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I don’t understand the glum face

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Former Manchester United striker Michael Owen expressed his surprise about attacker Marcus Rashford’s forlorn lock in the 1-1 Premier League draw at Fulham on Sunday (September 20).

Following a goalless first half at Craven Cottage, Lisandro Martinez’s own goal in the 63rd minute put the hosts in front before Matheus Cunha forced a share of the spoils for the Red Devils a minute from time.

Rashford, 28, started the game but couldn’t make much of an impact as he cut a largely isolated and frustrated figure up front. Owen explained the look on Rashford’s face (as per UF):

“I don’t understand the glum face. He just doesn’t seem to be enjoying his football. He is the weak link in the attack as things stand. He’s 28 now. He should be in his prime. He should be absolutely tearing defences down.”

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Rashford, back at Old Trafford after a productive loan spell at Barcelona last season, remains without a goal or an assist in six games across competitions this campaign.

He has played all five league games, starting four, and featured for 80 minutes in the 3-2 home defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion in the EFL Cup opener last week. The defeat marked United’s first at home in any competition in 50 years after taking a two-goal lead.


What’s next for Manchester United?

Fulham vs Manchester United - Premier League 2026/27 - Source: GettyFulham vs Manchester United - Premier League 2026/27 - Source: Getty
Fulham vs Manchester United – Premier League 2026/27 – Source: Getty

Following an underwhelming start to the new season, the pressure is beginning to mount on Manchester United head coach Michael Carrick, who has seen his side go winless in three games across competitions.

After a 1-0 Premier League home loss to 10-man Manchester City a week ago, the Red Devils slumped to a 3-2 EFL Cup home defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion in midweek before ending the week with a 1-1 stalemate at Fulham.

The Red Devils return to action after the extended international break with a home game against Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League on October 10. Three days later, they travel to Atletico Madrid for their second UEFA Champions League league phase game of the season before travelling to Leeds United in the league on October 18.

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