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Rory McIlroy falls short in BMW PGA Championship as familiar flaw strikes at Wentworth

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Sunday afternoon at Wentworth Club in late September, where the sun is low and the leaves are beginning to rust. Everything is still and pristine, and into the light step two of the most aesthetically pleasing swings in golf. Rory McIlroy bounds to the first tee with a spring in his step, where Adam Scott is waiting with sleeves rolled up, sporting a deep tan over perfectly pressed cream trousers, with the air of a man who just berthed his yacht.

These golfers on this golf course on this beautiful late summer day? No wonder fans stacked three or four deep on all sides to catch a glimpse as the pairing moved through the grounds. McIlroy alone carries a magnetic attraction, of course, and here the entourage included a string of sweaty photographers and reporters, some burly security personnel, two police officers, the Everton midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and half the population of Surrey.

In the pleasant hubbub it was easy to forget the stakes here. McIlroy has not won at Wentworth since 2014 and desperately wanted to repeat the feat at this BMW PGA Championship, the DP World Tour’s flagship event. There was considerable prize money of more than £1m for the winner. And perhaps most significantly for McIlroy was the opportunity to close the gap to Patrick Reed in the Race to Dubai. It is a title McIlroy virtually owns having won it seven times, and there cannot be many people he would less like to watch take his crown than the American.

McIlroy was the star attraction at Wentworth Club
McIlroy was the star attraction at Wentworth Club (Reuters)

Reed, one of the gurning faces of LIV Golf before his exit in January, arrived here at Wentworth more than 800 points ahead of McIlroy, before pulling out with a hand injury. It opened the door: McIlroy needed to finish in the top two to move ahead of the American in the standings with only a handful of events remaining.

McIlroy began the day on 11 under par, two shots back from the overnight leaders in the thick of a packed leaderboard with 25 players inside five shots. After a disappointing Irish Open in which McIlroy finished tied-45th, he has refound some of his touch, particularly with his irons. But he ended this compelling Sunday tied second after wasting a series of makeable putts.

It had been a morning for extraordinary shots before McIlroy’s round began. Tyrrell Hatton hit a blind approach from the rough to within a couple of inches of the cup after piercing a gap between low-hanging branches and a bush. Frederic Lacroix aced the 14th from 163 yards to win himself a BMW iX5 xDrive 60 M Sport, to remind everyone who the sponsors are and that car names are getting out of hand.

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McIlroy himself hit one for the highlight reel, manufacturing a banana hook from the trees on 12 reminiscent of his famous approach on the 15th at Augusta, arms wrapped around his body to generate that extreme right-to-left turn through the air, and it landed travelling sideways just shy of the green.

But the world No 2’s challenge frittered away with putter in hand. McIlroy had earlier missed good opportunities at two, three and five, and finished the front nine with two birdies when it might have been four or five. Then came a disastrous moment on 11 when he fatted a chip into a bunker as the club head snagged in soft, sandy soil where he expected firm ground.

McIlroy hits his approach to the 18th green
McIlroy hits his approach to the 18th green (Reuters)

McIlroy rallied, hitting that enormous hook to birdie the 12th. But he was always chasing and stretching to catch the leaders a shot or two out of reach. A birdie putt on 16 slid by the hole and McIlroy pulled off his hat in frustration as his challenge effectively ended. McIlroy finished ranked 76th in the field for strokes gained putting and was left to rue so many mistakes with the flat stick.

It was a familiar story, reminiscent of the 2024 US Open at Pinehurst and the 2022 Open Championship at St Andrews, when McIlroy spurned prime positions on Sunday with too many missed putts inside 10 feet. Here he recovered masterfully from wayward tee shots and the occasional missed green, but there is no recovery when the ball burns the edge and rolls by.

“I had my chances out there,” McIlroy said. “I wish I had some of those putts back, but I have to be encouraged with where my game is at.”

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At that point it looked like Aaron Rai would triumph, until a late-round stumble. Then it seemed Spain’s unheralded 30-year-old Manuel Elvira might break clear of the rest. Elvira has played much of his golf in the shadow of older brother Nacho, a winner of three events on the DP World Tour, and this was the biggest day of the younger brother’s career.

Unfortunately nerves told as he missed putts on 14 and 15, and despite a brilliant eagle on 17, Elvira made a disastrous strategic decision to adopt a conservative approach on the par-five 18th and lay up on one of the easiest holes on the course. He made the cardinal sin of finding the fairway bunker, then duffed a chip and ended with a double bogey.

“It was devastating that I hit the wrong shot at the right time on the lay up and left myself the toughest shot in the fairway bunker, and wasn’t able to pull it off,” Elvira said.

JJ Spaun celebrates with the trophy
JJ Spaun celebrates with the trophy (PA)

Watching on was clubhouse leader JJ Spaun, who hugged his wife in celebration as the par Elvira needed to force a play-off slipped away. It has been an inconsistent season for Spaun since victory at the Texas Open in April, and a so-so day until a run of three successive birdies on 14, 15 and 16 propelled him to the top of the leaderboard on 16 under par. A birdie at the last earned Spaun a win by two strokes from McIlroy, Scott, Elvira and Rai.

“I played with a huge chip on my shoulder,” Spaun said of being overlooked as a captain’s pick for the Presidents Cup next week outside Chicago. “I definitely had something to prove this week, but everything happens for a reason.”

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Tied second was enough for McIlroy to halve the points gap to Reed heading into the last events of the year. There may not be a Middle Eastern swing to this season’s European Tour at all, in the shadow of the war in Iran, so the Race to Dubai may in fact be a race to the final tournament of the season in – checks notes – Cheonan, South Korea, next month. Just as they did once upon a time in their epic Ryder Cup rivalry, McIlroy and Reed will fight to the bitter end.

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Autumn Glow Reigns Supreme at Royal Randwick in 2026 Seven Sunrise Stakes

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This transformed into a genuine contest, a tactically engaging race, and her rivals made it challenging for Autumn Glow, but true champions find a way to win.

Autumn Glow was compelled to take the lead, faced pressure on the turn, yet surged clear of her competitors to achieve an exciting victory in the Group 2 $1 million Seven Sunrise Stakes (1600m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

The reigning Horse of the Year, heavily favoured at $1.16, was expected to win what many anticipated would be a simple sit-and-sprint against only four other runners.

However, the race developed into a serious test, requiring Autumn Glow to run a fast Randwick mile in 1 minute 33.78 seconds, with her winning margin of a length and a quarter not fully indicative of her dominance.

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Legendary trainer Chris Waller explained that he and jockey James McDonald discussed race tactics prior to the event, acknowledging the possibility of leading.

“James said we might end up in front and Nash (Rawiller, Gringotts) might be there,” Waller stated.

“We both decided we will just play it as it comes, (the tactic discussion) nothing too serious, just settling the nerves really.

“But it was good to watch and showed how versatile she is, like she can put herself there or can go back, she just has a great turn of foot.

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“I know she was the short priced favourite but the horses in this race are all handy horses.

“There was a sprint from the 500m when it got serious so it was good to see her lift and draw clear in the end.”

Autumn Glow ($1.16) encountered brief pressure as she ascended the rise, with Gringotts, Ceolwulf, and Idle Flyer making early moves to challenge her, but the champion mare extended her lead to win quite comfortably.

Aeliana ($21) burst through along the inside rail late in the race to secure a very good second place, a half-neck ahead of Ceolwulf ($15).

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Idle Flyer finished a neck behind in fourth, and Gringotts was alongside the placegetters, with only two lengths separating the entire five-horse field.

Autumn Glow’s race record now boasts 13 wins and a third placing from 14 starts, accumulating career earnings nearing $10 million, yet witnessing her win is always more than just routine.

She performs like a ‘box office’ attraction and had over 10,000 on-course spectators at Royal Randwick cheering the magnificent mare to the finish.

Jockey James McDonald commented that he had an open mind about Autumn Glow’s positioning in the small field and that leading was not his primary plan.

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“I’d have been happy in three positions – first, second or third,” McDonald said.

“But once I got control, she just did it herself. She will jump out of the ground third-up.

“She went three quarter pace around then dashed home. They came after me, you probably could say they got to her at the top of the straight, but I let her balance up and she went away with it.

“She did what we needed her to do today. She had fun doing it – ears pricked the whole way.”

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Owner John Messara maintains that this season could be Autumn Glow’s finest, and her wins in the Winx Stakes and Seven Sunrise Stakes to commence her five-year-old campaign provide strong evidence.

“Autumn Glow showed us today how versatile she is, she ran a very sharp time overall and I would say it was one of her better wins,” Messara remarked.

“I suspect James McDonald had a fair bit left in the ‘petrol tank’, too.

“There is improvement to come because her coat is not quite there yet but it will be perfect for King Charles Day.”

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Messara describes Autumn Glow as the best horse he has owned and revealed his reduced concern over race results.

“I worry less now because she has won so many races but it is always a relief when the race is over,” Messara stated.

“I no longer worry about winning or losing, we are more worried about the mare and the jockey coming through the race safely.”

Waller, who observed the race from the trainer’s room and praised Darren Flindell’s race call as “amazing”, confirmed Autumn Glow is being prepared to peak for the Group 1 $5 million King Charles III Stakes (1600m) at Royal Randwick on October 17.

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“I’m pretty happy where Autumn Glow is at but there is some improvement to come, we haven’t screwed her down yet,” Waller said.

“We will just look after her and she will do the rest.”

Waller, who also celebrated Group 1 victories with Angel Capital in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and Birdman in the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield, expressed no regrets about targeting the King Charles III Stakes instead of the Group 1 $20 million The Everest (1200m) on the same day.

“I’m happy and comfortable with the decision (to go to the King Charles III Stakes),” Waller explained.

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“I don’t have second thoughts, once we make a decision as a group, the ownership, jockey, my team, we run with it.

“I hope it is a great contest and if something beats Ka Ying Rising, good luck to them.”

Waller’s stable achieved a quinella in the Seven Sunrise Stakes with Aeliana finishing strongly for second.

“That was just as satisfying, if not more satisfying,” Waller commented.

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“There was nothing wrong with her first up run, Nash got off her last start and said she is going great but the way the race was run, she just couldn’t get into it.

“It was good to see her acquit herself well today. If she had run third or fourth I would have said good run but to see her push through the last 50m was great.”

Autumn Glow will not race again until the King Charles III Stakes, while Aeliana is expected to compete next in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 3.

Ceolwulf, Idle Flyer, and Gringotts demonstrated competitive form and may clash again on October 3 in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap (1600m) at Royal Randwick.

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Betting markets for the race are already heating up, check out racing odds.

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UFC 331 Underdog Pick: Why Brunno Ferreira Can Upset Edmen Shahbazyan

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Mar 7, 2026; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Brunno Ferreira (blue gloves) reacts after the fight against Gregory Rodrigues (red gloves) during UFC 326 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn ImagesMar 7, 2026; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Brunno Ferreira (blue gloves) reacts after the fight against Gregory Rodrigues (red gloves) during UFC 326 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for plus money.

Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate UFC fight outcomes — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or 5 total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.

How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.

Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.

Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

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Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC.

Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Brunno Ferreira (+160)

Model Odds: +110

Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Decision (+440)

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In one of the most strange lines of a loaded card in Los Angeles, bettors (or traders) are pushing Edmen Shahbazyan toward a two-to-one favorite in a battle of extremely similar fighters. I don’t get it.

Shahbazyan is the more polished fighter from Xtreme Couture, one of the best MMA gyms in the world under head coach Eric Nicksick. In this same division, his teammate, Sean Strickland, has the belt. But, that’s also been the case for years as “The Golden Boy” has struggled to make his mark at middleweight.

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Shahbazyan’s 9-6 record is far from perfect, and his +0.19 striking success rate (SSR) is fairly flat. When fresh, the striker is long, fast, and dangerous. But he’s proven to have an expiration date in fights, most recently verified in a second-round loss to Gerald Meerschaert. “GM3” has gone on a five-fight losing skid since beating Shahbazyan.

Anytime the middleweight exerts himself early, it ends poorly. He’s gone to a cautious decision in two of his last three fights knowing this. All Brunno Ferreira might have to do here is force action and survive long enough to watch Shahbazyan fade.

“The Hulk” has certainly been good at that. He’s got a 1.63% knockdown rate, and 7 of his 11 UFC-affiliated appearances, including the Contender Series, ended in Round 1. Twice a victim in those scenarios, that’s probably the most dangerous round for him.

But, in deeper waters, Ferreira has proven his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is legitimate with submissions in two of his last five fights. A longer fight? Well, he outlasted former title challenger Marvin Vettori in one of those, too. If this isn’t a quick, clean kickboxing match, Ferreira seems to have a great chance.

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Anecdotally, the Brazilian has struggled at times with discipline and coming to fight week in the best possible conditioning. On a two-fight losing skid, he looked in outstanding shape at weigh-ins. I typically don’t factor in that hard-to-quantify noise, but I think it matters greatly for Ferreira, given his history and his entering a fight like this, where endurance could be a key factor.

The model’s verdict agrees with my assessment. It feels like Shahbazyan’s technique is really expensive when, at the end of the day, these are both powerful strikers with inconsistent defense, submission danger, and questionable gas tanks. I’ve got Edmen a slight favorite (52.5%), but it’s otherwise saying to flip a coin.

If this fight extends to Round 2, Ferreira should be in an excellent position to pull the upset.

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I don’t understand the glum face

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Former Manchester United striker Michael Owen expressed his surprise about attacker Marcus Rashford’s forlorn lock in the 1-1 Premier League draw at Fulham on Sunday (September 20).

Following a goalless first half at Craven Cottage, Lisandro Martinez’s own goal in the 63rd minute put the hosts in front before Matheus Cunha forced a share of the spoils for the Red Devils a minute from time.

Rashford, 28, started the game but couldn’t make much of an impact as he cut a largely isolated and frustrated figure up front. Owen explained the look on Rashford’s face (as per UF):

“I don’t understand the glum face. He just doesn’t seem to be enjoying his football. He is the weak link in the attack as things stand. He’s 28 now. He should be in his prime. He should be absolutely tearing defences down.”

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Rashford, back at Old Trafford after a productive loan spell at Barcelona last season, remains without a goal or an assist in six games across competitions this campaign.

He has played all five league games, starting four, and featured for 80 minutes in the 3-2 home defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion in the EFL Cup opener last week. The defeat marked United’s first at home in any competition in 50 years after taking a two-goal lead.


What’s next for Manchester United?

Fulham vs Manchester United - Premier League 2026/27 - Source: GettyFulham vs Manchester United - Premier League 2026/27 - Source: Getty
Fulham vs Manchester United – Premier League 2026/27 – Source: Getty

Following an underwhelming start to the new season, the pressure is beginning to mount on Manchester United head coach Michael Carrick, who has seen his side go winless in three games across competitions.

After a 1-0 Premier League home loss to 10-man Manchester City a week ago, the Red Devils slumped to a 3-2 EFL Cup home defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion in midweek before ending the week with a 1-1 stalemate at Fulham.

The Red Devils return to action after the extended international break with a home game against Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League on October 10. Three days later, they travel to Atletico Madrid for their second UEFA Champions League league phase game of the season before travelling to Leeds United in the league on October 18.

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