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Kakao Pay, KakaoBank Explore Stablecoins With Fireblocks

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South Korean financial companies Kakao Pay and KakaoBank have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with crypto infrastructure provider Fireblocks to explore digital asset opportunities, including stablecoins. 

Under the agreement, the companies will conduct proof-of-concept tests for digital asset infrastructure suited to South Korea’s regulatory, security and service requirements. The initiative aims to help establish secure onchain infrastructure for the country’s emerging digital asset market. 

The announcement on Monday did not include a launch, investment or implementation timeline. 

Kakao Pay operates mobile payments and financial services, while KakaoBank is one of South Korea’s largest internet-only banks. Both are part of the broader Kakao ecosystem. Meanwhile, Fireblocks provides digital asset infrastructure to more than 2,500 institutions, including over 100 banks, according to the company. 

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The agreement follows a separate memorandum signed by Kakao Group and stablecoin issuer Circle. In July, the two companies signed an MoU to explore blockchain-based payment infrastructure and digital asset technology. The collaboration included examining opportunities around won-denominated stablecoins and related services. 

Kakao Pay and KakaoBank are among several South Korean financial and technology companies exploring stablecoin opportunities as the country develops its regulatory framework for digital assets.

In May, KB Financial Group completed a won-denominated stablecoin pilot covering issuance, offline merchant payments and cross-border remittances. In July, fintech company Toss partnered with Optimism and Sunnyside Labs on a proof of concept for won-based stablecoin payment infrastructure.

Related: South Korean bank stocks surge on stablecoin trademark filings

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Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.



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Trueo Prediction Market Expands from Base to Ethereum Network

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Crypto Breaking News

Prediction market platform Trueo says it will migrate from Base to Ethereum, positioning the move around broader integrations and the next phase of its oracle infrastructure—an onchain component that helps determine outcomes for markets that settle on real-world data.

Trueo launched on Base in March 2025. After the migration, the team says its near-term focus will be pulling in more liquidity while also developing the next generation of its oracle system, which is central to how prediction markets get resolved.

Key takeaways

  • Trueo plans to move its prediction markets from Base to Ethereum to pursue wider integration options.
  • The project links the migration to building a more advanced oracle system used to verify real-world outcomes.
  • Trueo argues Ethereum is better suited for a “fully permissionless” and highly credible oracle approach than staying within Base’s tighter ecosystem.
  • The platform is already a top onchain prediction venue, with DefiLlama listing it among the largest by total value locked.

Why Trueo is leaving Base for Ethereum

Trueo’s core rationale is product reach. In its public messaging, the project said it expects Ethereum to provide “higher integration potential” and more upside for its roadmap, while Base would constrain partnerships and integrations mostly to the immediate Base ecosystem.

The team’s framing is less about trading or execution and more about credibility and neutrality at the oracle layer. Trueo’s co-founder, who goes by “Lumberg,” said Ethereum offers the “best” environment for an oracle designed to be credibly neutral and truthful for prediction markets.

That argument also reflects timing and development tradeoffs from Trueo’s initial deployment. Trueo noted that when it launched, Ethereum mainnet gas costs were still relatively high, and some product features were still experimental—factors that made starting on an L2 like Base pragmatic.

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Oracle upgrades are central to the migration

For prediction markets, oracles are not a background detail—they are the mechanism that translates real-world events into blockchain-resolved outcomes. Trueo said that attracting liquidity will be a priority after the move, but the larger effort is the rollout of the next generation of its oracle system.

By highlighting oracle development alongside the chain migration, Trueo is effectively treating the migration as a foundation for scaling the reliability and adoption of its market-resolving process. In the team’s view, the “final form” of Trueo is meant to become a platform that is widely adopted and broadly integrated, with a high standard of credibility tied to how its markets are resolved.

From early-stage L2 to a broader, integrated platform

Trueo’s explanation underscores a common lifecycle pattern for crypto startups: begin on a scaling-friendly network while experimenting, then move toward broader connectivity as the product matures. In Trueo’s case, the company specifically contrasted the properties it could aim for on Ethereum—such as being more widely integrated and permissionless—with the limitations it believes exist when remaining within a single L2 ecosystem.

In comments posted publicly, Trueo also described Ethereum as the “best fit” for combining permissionless operation, strong immutability characteristics, and credible oracle behavior—qualities it says align with its ambition to be a widely adopted prediction market platform rather than a niche app confined to a single rollup.

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Where Trueo stands in onchain prediction markets

Trueo is already recognized among the larger onchain prediction venues. DefiLlama ranks the platform as the 14th-largest onchain prediction market by total value locked, with TVL reported at $795,687 at the time of publication.

That matters because migration decisions in the prediction market sector can directly affect liquidity and user participation. Even when the underlying smart contracts and oracle logic evolve, chain selection influences where users already operate, where liquidity pools exist, and how quickly new partnerships can integrate.

Trueo’s plan to prioritize liquidity following the move suggests the team is aware of those transition risks—particularly in a category where market depth and participation can be sensitive to where markets are hosted.

As Trueo executes its Ethereum migration, readers should watch for two things: how quickly liquidity can be reassembled on the new chain, and what changes land in its next-generation oracle system—since the oracle design is likely to determine how credible and widely usable its prediction market resolution process becomes.

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Meta Jumps 11% As Muse Shines and Investors Show an Appetite for Advancing AI

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Meta's AI is starting to grab attention.

Meta Platforms (META) stock jumped 11% on Monday, closing at $741.25. Wells Fargo raised its price target to $796 from $640.

Analyst Ken Gawrelski cited early demand for Muse, Meta’s new AI agent. He said it gives Meta a credible AI story ahead of Wednesday’s Connect conference.

Muse Turns Heads on the App Charts

Meta launched Muse on Sept. 8. The AI agent completes tasks such as filling out forms, booking appointments, and sending emails, rather than only answering questions. It runs on Muse Spark, the model family Meta built for agentic work.

Meta's AI is starting to grab attention.
Meta’s AI is starting to grab attention. Image Source: Trading View

Muse briefly topped Apple’s US App Store chart for free apps. Rankings varied by tracker. Some trackers placed it fourth or fifth overall, with a stronger number two ranking in the Productivity category.

The analytics firm Sensor Tower estimated US iOS downloads. They climbed from the tens of thousands at launch to the hundreds of thousands within two weeks. Meta has not confirmed those figures itself.

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That marks a shift after a stretch of AI model delays and heavy infrastructure spending. Those concerns once had Wall Street rotating out of Meta stock and into rivals.

Chief executive Mark Zuckerberg brought in former Scale AI chief executive Alexandr Wang to rebuild the company’s AI lab, a move analysts now tie to Muse’s launch.

Appetite for Frontier AI Outweighs Safety Worries

The rally lands as debate continues over AI development. Critics ask whether the hype outpaces the real risk. Zuckerberg has pushed back on AI doomsday warnings, arguing competitive pressure among labs already keeps development in check.

He has also framed Meta’s ambitions in broader terms. He says superintelligence should reach everyone, not stay locked inside a handful of labs.

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Monday’s move suggests those safety debates have done little to cool demand for shares tied to frontier AI progress . The S&P 500 closed up 1.49% at 7,764. The Nasdaq Composite gained 2.26% to 27,122, though Meta’s surge outpaced both. Alphabet (GOOGL) added 1.55% to $354.97, and Snap (SNAP) rose 3.07% to $5.70.

Meta heads into Wednesday’s Connect conference facing one key question. Can Muse’s early buzz turn into real usage numbers, not just app store rankings? That answer could confirm whether the AI turnaround finally pays off.

The post Meta Jumps 11% As Muse Shines and Investors Show an Appetite for Advancing AI appeared first on BeInCrypto.



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Binance faces U.S. probe over Iran sanctions

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Binance outflows triple as ETH withdrawals hit 3-year high

U.S. federal prosecutors have been investigating whether Binance knowingly allowed trading that violated Iran sanctions, nearly three years after its $4.3 billion federal settlement, according to a Sept. 22 Bloomberg report.

Summary

  • U.S. prosecutors are examining whether Binance knowingly allowed trades that violated existing sanctions targeting Iran.
  • Manhattan prosecutors lead the reported probe, while the Justice Department’s Criminal Division is participating too.
  • $61 million in crypto is targeted in a civil forfeiture case tied to Iranian oil.
  • Binance says it maintains zero tolerance for sanctions violations and fully cooperates with law enforcement.
  • Binance pleaded guilty in 2023 and agreed to pay $4.3 billion in U.S. penalties overall.

Bloomberg said the Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s Office is leading the inquiry, while the Justice Department’s Criminal Division in Washington is participating. Prosecutors are examining Binance’s compliance controls and whether the exchange knew about the transactions under review, according to the report. Reuters said it had not independently verified Bloomberg’s account.

Binance responded that it maintains a zero-tolerance policy for sanctions violations. The exchange said, “We fully cooperate with law enforcement, and we remain committed to rooting out and shutting down bad actors.” The Justice Department declined to comment to Reuters, while the Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s Office was not immediately available for comment outside normal business hours.

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Binance Iran sanctions probe focuses on compliance controls

The reported investigation centers on whether Binance knowingly permitted trading that should have been stopped under U.S. sanctions, according to Bloomberg’s account cited by Reuters. The report did not identify the transactions under review or disclose when prosecutors began examining them.

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Scrutiny of the exchange’s Iran-related controls had surfaced months earlier. In March, crypto.news reported that Senators Elizabeth Warren, Chris Van Hollen and Ruben Gallego planned congressional oversight of a reported Justice Department investigation involving Iran-linked transactions. At the time, the inquiry was described as examining whether networks connected to Iran used Binance to evade U.S. sanctions.

Binance disputed claims made in several February reports. In a March 6 response to a Senate inquiry, the company described parts of the reporting as “demonstrably false, unsupported by credible evidence, and defamatory in several material respects.” Binance said its know-your-customer rules prohibit users residing or located in Iran from accessing Binance.com.

$61 million forfeiture complaint names Binance-linked accounts

A separate court action filed on Sept. 14 provides fresh public records concerning Iran-linked funds that moved through accounts on Binance. The Southern District of New York filed a verified civil forfeiture complaint seeking all USDT held in 10 cryptocurrency addresses, court records show. The case is United States v. All USD Tether Held in the Following Cryptocurrency Addresses, No. 1:26-cv-08010.

Prosecutors valued the targeted cryptocurrency at approximately $61 million and alleged it represented proceeds from black-market Iranian crude oil and petroleum sales. The complaint says the money was intended to finance Iranian government and military bodies, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

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The filing alleges two Chinese companies, Blessed Trust and Hexa Whale, used Binance trading accounts while handling proceeds connected with Iranian oil sales. Prosecutors said a network of cryptocurrency actors laundered more than $1.5 billion in illicit oil proceeds, while Blessed Trust and Hexa Whale used the U.S. financial system to send or receive tens of millions of dollars.

The forfeiture complaint does not accuse Binance itself of wrongdoing in that proceeding. The Justice Department states that a civil forfeiture complaint contains allegations that remain unproven until a court enters judgment for the government. As crypto.news reported in related coverage, the case is directed at the cryptocurrency held in the identified wallets, not a criminal charge against Binance.

Court records describe the assets as USDT held on addresses operating on the TRON network. The complaint says Tether would burn the tokens covered by a seizure warrant and issue replacement tokens of equal value for transfer into U.S. government custody.

Binance says the firms were offboarded after reviews

Binance has given its own timeline for Hexa Whale and Blessed Trust. In its March congressional response, the exchange said law enforcement contacted it in April 2025 about transactions between Binance wallets and outside addresses with possible terrorism-financing connections. Binance said it supplied KYC and transaction records connected with Hexa Whale in June 2025 and continued reviewing the account afterward.

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The company said it removed Hexa Whale from Binance.com on Aug. 13, 2025. A separate set of law-enforcement requests concerning transactions involving other outside wallets arrived during summer 2025, according to Binance. The exchange said investigators then performed a source-of-funds review and offboarded Blessed Trust in January 2026.

Binance maintains that, to its knowledge, no Binance account transacted directly with an Iran-based entity. In another March statement, the company said its investigation found approximately $126.1 million eventually reached wallets linked to Iran after multiple blockchain hops, with as much as $24.1 million reaching IRGC-related wallets. The figures are Binance’s account of its internal review and have not been presented by the company as findings of a court.

The exchange said claims that it fired compliance employees for escalating concerns were false. Binance acknowledged that one employee was dismissed after an internal investigation over what the company described as an unauthorized disclosure of user information, while other compliance workers left voluntarily.

Binance has pointed to staffing and monitoring data while defending its controls. The company says more than 1,500 people work in compliance-related functions, representing roughly 25% of its global workforce. It reported processing more than 71,000 law-enforcement requests during 2025 and claimed exposure to four major Iranian crypto exchanges fell 97.3%, from $4.19 million to $110,000 over two years.

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2023 guilty plea imposed monitors and compliance reforms

The current scrutiny follows Binance’s November 2023 criminal resolution with U.S. authorities. The exchange pleaded guilty to offenses involving the Bank Secrecy Act, operating an unregistered money-transmitting business and violating the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Binance agreed to a total criminal financial penalty of $4.316 billion.

In that case, the Justice Department said Binance knowingly failed to install controls that would stop U.S. customers from trading with users in sanctioned jurisdictions. Federal prosecutors said Binance caused more than $898 million in trades between U.S. users and users ordinarily resident in Iran from January 2018 through May 2022.

The settlement required Binance to retain an independent compliance monitor for three years and improve its anti-money-laundering and sanctions systems. Separate coordinated resolutions involved FinCEN, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Later scrutiny centered on whether the post-settlement controls were functioning as required. As crypto.news previously reported, Treasury-related oversight gave authorities access to Binance books, records and systems under separate monitoring obligations, while Iran-linked transaction reports prompted renewed questions about compliance.

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Meanwhile, the Sept. 14 forfeiture matter is proceeding separately in the Southern District of New York. Prosecutors are seeking a judgment allowing the United States to retain the USDT named in the complaint, while the filing itself states that its allegations remain unproven unless the court awards judgment to the government.




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Dogecoin leads market rebound with 15% pump, bitcoin steady above $85,000

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Dogecoin leads market rebound with 15% pump, bitcoin steady above $85,000

XRP added 7% to nearly $1.52 and SOL 5% to just under $117. Ether rose 3% to nearly $2,740, while BNB and TRX each picked up between 1% and 2%. ZEC was the only large token to fall, down 4% to just above $1,450.

Liquidations in the past hour came to under $11 million, down from more than $300 million an hour at the peak of Monday’s move, which leaves the next leg dependent on buyers rather than sellers being forced out.

AI trade roars back

Equities set a firm tone through the Asian session, meanwhile.

MSCI’s Asia Pacific gauge rose nearly 1% for a fifth straight day of gains, led by chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which tracked Monday’s rally in U.S. semiconductor stocks. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 2% and Taiwan’s benchmark hit an intraday record.

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Artificial intelligence is doing the pulling. The Wall Street rally followed early signs of success for Meta Platforms’ new AI agent, and AMD is on course to pass $1 trillion in market value.

Meta Platforms released Muse, an AI agent that works across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, nearly two weeks ago and it has since passed ChatGPT to become the top free app on Apple’s U.S. App Store. The app has drawn nearly 3 million installs worldwide and almost 40% more iOS downloads in the U.S. and Canada than ChatGPT managed in its own first 12 days on mobile, data from app-tracker Apptopia shows.



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Cardano joins Solana, XRP Ledger in race to power AI agent payments

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Cardano joins Solana, XRP Ledger in race to power AI agent payments

Cardano has been added to the official x402 software kit, giving developers the code needed to let an app or AI agent pay for an online service using ADA or tokens issued on the network.

x402 turns the web’s largely unused “402 Payment Required” response into a checkout built directly into an internet request. A service sends back its price and payment instructions, the agent signs a payment and receives the requested data or computing power after the transaction is verified.

That means an agent preparing a report could buy a single dataset when it needs it, without a person opening an account, entering card details or paying for a monthly subscription.

Coinbase created x402 in 2025 before contributing it to a Linux Foundation-backed organization whose members include Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, Google and Amazon Web Services. Solana, the XRP Ledger and several Ethereum-compatible networks already support the standard.

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Cardano Foundation engineers began with a specification accepted in June, then built the client and server software needed to request payments alongside a so-called facilitator that verifies and submits them. The initial release supports TypeScript, with Python planned next.



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Prediction Market Trueo Moves From Base to Ethereum

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Prediction Market Trueo Moves From Base to Ethereum

Prediction market platform Trueo plans to migrate from Base to Ethereum, citing broader integration opportunities and plans to build the next iteration of its oracle system.

The project, which launched on Base in March 2025, said its priority after the migration will be attracting liquidity and launching the next generation of its oracle, the system used to verify real-world outcomes that are used to resolve prediction markets.

Trueo said it chose to move from Base to Ethereum because it offered higher integration potential and product upside, while on Base, integrations are limited to the immediate ecosystem.

“Ethereum is the best chain for the most credibly neutral and truthful oracle system and prediction markets,” Trueo co-founder known as “Lumberg” said on X.

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Source: Vitalik Buterin

“As a new app and experiment, an L2 like Base was the right choice for many reasons. At the time, Mainnet gas costs were still elevated and some features of our app were experimental,” Trueo said on X.

“The final form of Trueo is to be a platform that is widely adopted, broadly integrated, fully permissionless, mostly immutable, and highly credible. Ethereum is the best fit for this combination of properties.”

Trueo is ranked as the 14th-largest onchain prediction market with a total value locked of $795,687, according to DefiLlama.

Related: World Cup generated $20B in blockchain prediciton market volume: Chainalysis

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Kakao Pay and KakaoBank Plan Stablecoin Projects With Fireblocks

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Crypto Breaking News

Kakao Pay and KakaoBank, two major players in South Korea’s Kakao ecosystem, have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with digital asset infrastructure provider Fireblocks to explore new opportunities in crypto infrastructure—specifically including stablecoins. The parties said they will run proof-of-concept tests aimed at building digital asset capabilities that fit South Korea’s regulatory, security, and service expectations.

The announcement, made on Monday, did not disclose any launch plans, investment commitments, or implementation timelines. Instead, it frames the effort as an engineering and compliance-oriented exercise to identify how onchain infrastructure can be deployed responsibly in a market that is still taking shape under an evolving regulatory framework.

Key takeaways

  • Kakao Pay and KakaoBank are partnering with Fireblocks to test digital asset infrastructure use cases, including stablecoin-related work.
  • The MoU centers on proof-of-concept testing tailored to South Korea’s regulatory and security requirements, without any announced rollout timeline.
  • Fireblocks says it supports more than 2,500 institutions, including over 100 banks, positioning the partnership as focused on enterprise-grade custody and infrastructure.
  • The move adds to a growing cluster of South Korean finance and fintech firms exploring won-denominated stablecoin pathways as regulation develops.

Why Kakao’s infrastructure search matters

Unlike pilots that focus purely on payment trials, this MoU is primarily about the infrastructure layer—how institutions can securely connect to digital assets and operate systems that meet banking-grade standards. Kakao Pay and KakaoBank sit in the heart of South Korea’s digital payments and banking ecosystem: Kakao Pay provides mobile payments and financial services, while KakaoBank is one of the country’s largest internet-only banks.

For firms like these, the practical challenge is not simply adopting blockchain technology, but integrating it in ways that satisfy security controls, operational reliability, and compliance expectations. By working with Fireblocks on proof-of-concept tests, the companies are signaling that they want to validate onchain systems that can withstand enterprise requirements—an issue that often determines whether stablecoin concepts can move from experimentation to production.

What Fireblocks brings to the table

Fireblocks provides digital asset infrastructure used by institutions, and the company says it supports more than 2,500 institutions, including over 100 banks. In enterprise crypto deployments, that kind of track record is often tied to capabilities such as secure custody and infrastructure tooling used to manage digital assets at scale.

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While Monday’s MoU announcement does not describe specific technical components, it does clarify the target outcome: secure onchain infrastructure that aligns with South Korea’s regulatory and security landscape. For investors and builders watching South Korea’s stablecoin trajectory, this is a meaningful signal that large local financial institutions are seeking infrastructure partners capable of meeting banking-level standards.

A wave of stablecoin exploration in South Korea

The Kakao-Fireblocks agreement arrives amid a broader pattern of experimentation across South Korea’s financial sector as the country continues building out its digital asset regulatory framework.

Earlier activity includes a separate MoU between Kakao Group and stablecoin issuer Circle, announced in July. According to Cointelegraph’s earlier coverage, that MoU was intended to explore blockchain-based payment infrastructure and digital asset technology, including opportunities around won-denominated stablecoins and related services (see Kakao Circle won stablecoin payment infrastructure).

The stablecoin push is not limited to Kakao. In May, Cointelegraph reported that KB Financial Group completed a won-denominated stablecoin pilot spanning issuance, offline merchant payments, and cross-border remittances (see KB Financial stablecoin pilot offline payments). And in July, fintech company Toss partnered with Optimism and Sunnyside Labs on a proof of concept for won-based stablecoin payment infrastructure (see Toss partners Optimism won stablecoins).

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Taken together, these efforts suggest the market is moving beyond pure “whether” questions and increasingly focusing on “how”—including what infrastructure is needed to support stablecoin payments and settlement, including in scenarios that require offline functionality or integration with cross-border flows.

What to watch next for investors and operators

For now, the MoU provides a direction of travel rather than a product roadmap. The lack of a launch or implementation timeline means stakeholders should treat the announcement as an early-stage initiative: proof-of-concept testing will determine what technical and compliance hurdles need to be cleared before any wider deployment.

As South Korea refines its approach to digital assets, the next milestones to monitor are not only regulatory developments, but also whether these infrastructure-focused pilots can evolve into operational systems—especially for won-denominated stablecoin use cases, where payment reliability and security controls are central.

Readers should watch for details on the proof-of-concept scope, results, and whether Kakao’s infrastructure testing leads to further partnerships or public pilots aligned with the country’s expanding stablecoin and payment framework.

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XRP jumps 8% as crypto short squeeze and Ripple developments draw attention – CoinJournal

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XRP jumps 8% as crypto short squeeze and Ripple developments draw attention - CoinJournal

Key takeaways

  • XRP rose more than 8% in 24 hours as the broader crypto market rallied.
  • Its trading volume increased 55% to approximately $4.7 billion.
  • Crypto-wide short liquidations reached about $665 million; that figure is not specific to XRP.

XRP outpaces major cryptocurrencies

XRP gained more than 8% over 24 hours amid a broad cryptocurrency rally. Trading volume rose 55% to approximately $4.7 billion, equivalent to about 5% of XRP’s circulating market value.

The higher volume shows that trading activity increased alongside the price. It does not, by itself, establish how much of that activity came from new buyers rather than sellers closing positions.

A wider short squeeze may have contributed to the move. Across the crypto market, short liquidations climbed to approximately $665 million, according to the figures cited in the report. Liquidations force some traders betting on falling prices to close their positions, which can amplify a rally.

XRP’s gains also come as Ripple continues to expand its payments business and develop uses for the XRP Ledger.

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The report points to a newly released developer kit for building AI agents that can make payments using the ledger and Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin. It also describes Stripe as potential supporting infrastructure for that use case. The scale of any resulting payment activity remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, two XRP Ledger proposals under consideration could help establish a framework for lending that uses XRP as collateral and RLUSD for settlement. Their eventual effect depends on approval, implementation and adoption.

RLUSD’s market capitalization was near $2.4 billion in the figures cited by the report. Growth in the stablecoin may increase activity in Ripple’s ecosystem, though it does not guarantee a corresponding rise in XRP’s price.

XRP faces $1.50 breakout test

The technical analysis in the report identifies a breakout from a descending flag pattern on XRP’s daily chart. 

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The next test is $1.50: a sustained move above that level would strengthen the case for a rise toward $1.80.

XRP/USD Daily Chart

The analyst also projects a medium-term target of $2.10 based on the pattern’s measured move, implying roughly 41% upside from the price used in that forecast.

Those targets remain conditional. After a sharp rally and substantial short liquidations, XRP will need continued buying interest to hold its breakout and advance through $1.50.



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As Yields Retreat, HSBC Sees 10-Year Treasury at 4.65%, Not 6%, by Year-End

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Yields have fallen below the psychological mark of 5%.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.951% on Monday, retreating further from last week’s 19-year high of 5.041%. HSBC now sees the yield closer to 4.65%, not 6% by year-end, arguing the retreat has room to run.

Falling oil prices and hope for a deal with Iran calmed markets Monday. That marks a sharp reversal from the hawkish mood that drove last week’s spike.

HSBC’s Treasury Yield Forecast Turns More Hawkish

HSBC actually lifted its entire Treasury curve forecast this month. It raised its two-year year-end forecast to 4.20% from 3.85%, and its 10-year target to 4.65% from 4.30%. The bank still expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates through 2027 as its base case.

Yields have fallen below the psychological mark of 5%.
Yields have fallen below the psychological mark of 5%. Image Source: CNBC

However, HSBC now sees near-even odds of a hike this cycle. It called the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) internal debate “on a fine edge.”

The bank credited Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks with easing summer’s term premium. Persistent fiscal deficits, it said, will keep pressure on the curve further out.

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“An increasingly asymmetric skew in dual mandate risks means the distribution of potential outcomes has changed, and we think this likely sustains upward pressure on front-end yields even if the Fed doesn’t tighten policy in the near term.”

(HSBC)

Where Other Forecasters See the 10-Year Yield

Not everyone agrees on the destination. Miller Tabak’s Matt Maley calls 4.8%, the more urgent test. He warned a sustained break above it could ripple into other assets.

Deutsche Bank’s data on past tightening cycles suggests a 6% run is more a 2027 story than a near-term one.

iCapital’s 5.3% forecast lands higher still, with Dan Suzuki pointing to oil rather than the Fed as the driver. ZeroHedge’s bear case argues 6% arrives regardless of how orderly the path looks.

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Forecasts now cluster between 4.65% and 5.3%. That makes a decisive break above 4.8%, not a leap to 6%, the nearer-term signal to watch.

This week’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, jobless claims, and several Fed speeches should test which camp is right.

The post As Yields Retreat, HSBC Sees 10-Year Treasury at 4.65%, Not 6%, by Year-End appeared first on BeInCrypto.



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Here’s who we know is going to the Trump-Xi dinner so far

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Here's who we know is going to the Trump-Xi dinner so far

U.S. President Donald Trump makes a toast during a state banquet hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People on May 14, 2026 in Beijing, China.

Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty Images

BEIJING — With two days to go before Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to land in the U.S., very little is known about which Chinese executives will join him.

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China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment Tuesday morning. Late on Monday, the ministry confirmed Xi’s U.S. trip, planned for Wednesday to Friday.

On the U.S. side, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is one of the executives who will attend a dinner expected Thursday in Washington, D.C., according to a source familiar.

Microsoft and the White House did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment.

Senior U.S. officials have shared names of some other executives who will join:

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Apple CEO Tim Cook arrive for the meeting between Chinese Premier Li Qiang and U.S. business representatives, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China May 14, 2026.

Go Nakamura | Reuters

Those business leaders include:

  • Nvidia’s Jensen Huang
  • OpenAI’s Sam Altman
  • Google’s Sundar Pichai
  • Tesla and SpaceX’s Elon Musk
  • Citigroup’s Jane Fraser
  • Amazon’s Jeff Bezos
  • Apple’s Tim Cook
  • Dell’s Michael Dell

Boeing CEO Kelly Orthberg joined U.S. executives in a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang on May 14, 2026, alongside the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.

CNBC | Evelyn Cheng

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On the Chinese side, Reuters reported last week that business representatives under consideration included those from electric car giant BYD, smartphone company Xiaomi, battery makers CATL and Gotion, consumer electronics manufacturer Hisense, automotive parts company Wanxiang, state-owned Bank of China and agricultural conglomerate COFCO Group.

BYD had no comment when contacted by CNBC. The other Chinese companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

As tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated in recent years, both governments have put companies from the other country on blacklists that restrict business activity.

—CNBC’s Jordan Novet and Ashlee Trujillo contributed to this report.

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