The UK economy will grow by 1.1 per cent this year, according to new forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), up from the 0.9 per cent it projected in June.

The Paris-based organisation said in its interim outlook, published today, that output had held up better than expected in the face of the US-Iran war. It pointed to “solid domestic demand growth in the second quarter” of the year.

The OECD said household spending could get a further boost from government measures to cut taxes on energy bills and cap bus fares.

The 1.1 per cent estimate is the joint second highest in the G7, behind the United States on 2.2 per cent and level with Germany, which has begun to recover from three years of industrial stagnation.

Slower growth and lower inflation

The OECD expects UK growth to slow to 1 per cent in 2027, down from the 1.1 per cent it forecast in June. When it last published forecasts, the organisation had cut its UK growth projection to below 1 per cent for this year.

It also lowered its inflation projection for this year from an average of 3.7 per cent to 3.1 per cent. For next year it expects inflation of 2.6 per cent, higher than the 2.4 per cent it forecast in the summer.

UK GDP figures and measures of private sector activity and household sentiment have improved in recent months, despite global oil prices rising to between $90 and $100 a barrel since August. Economists have warned that higher oil and gas prices will add to inflation and cost-of-living pressures, and that spending and activity are likely to be squeezed during the winter months.

The OECD said British consumers were among those “dedicating a higher proportion of their spending towards fuel, amid very rapid growth in gasoline and diesel prices since the onset of the conflict”.

Emma Reynolds, chief secretary to the Treasury, said: “Despite unprecedented pressures and conflict in both the Middle East and in Europe, the UK economy is showing strong resilience. We had the fastest growth in the G7 in the first half of the year and we are starting the big, long-term changes needed to create good jobs and growth in every postcode.”

The OECD said it expects no change this year to UK interest rates, which stand at 3.75 per cent.

Last week the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent and warned it could tighten policy for the first time in three years before the end of 2026, should consumer prices breach 4 per cent. Governor Andrew Bailey said a rate rise was likely if the Iran war went on. Annual inflation is currently running at 3.1 per cent.

The OECD said the picture for the UK and world economy was “heavily dependent on whether a durable resolution to the Middle East conflict is achieved”.

“Energy prices have recently risen again amidst intensified disruptions to production and exports in the Gulf economies. Elevated refining margins due to production bottlenecks are placing additional upward pressure on consumer prices and business costs. Prices for some agricultural commodities have also risen markedly in recent months, partly due to the impact of extreme weather on supply,” the interim report said.

The organisation raised its global growth projection from 2.8 per cent to 2.9 per cent. It said “sizeable oil inventories, additional supply from outside the Gulf economies and discretionary government support measures all helped to cushion the impact on the global economy”.

Its biggest downgrade was to Canada, where projected growth fell from 1.2 per cent to 0.9 per cent after the US imposed new tariffs on its neighbour.

France was also downgraded, to 0.4 per cent, the lowest in the G7. The OECD’s forecast comes as the EU’s second-largest economy faces pressure to reduce its rising budget deficit before presidential elections next year.

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said on Wednesday that the central bank took an important step last week to “recalibrate” short-term borrowing costs in its effort to bring down inflation, and signalled that further rate hikes are likely needed, Reuters reported.

“Risks to achieving our inflation target have increased, while risks to the labour market have receded,” Barr said in prepared remarks for a Chicago Fed housing affordability conference.

He noted that US economic growth remains strong and the labour market solid, but inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% goal and not clearly headed lower. “In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion,” he said.

For live updates on US Markets, click here

In a unanimous decision last week, Fed policymakers raised the central bank’s policy rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. Sixteen of 18 officials signalled that at least one more hike would likely be needed before year-end, according to a Reuters report.

Barr’s remarks suggest he sees the case for at least two further increases, though he did not specify a timeline.
His willingness to be specific about the rate path stands in contrast to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has declined to offer any forward guidance on the matter.”In my view, given changes to the economy, we were out of position, and we made an adjustment in the right direction,” Barr added, referring to last week’s quarter-point hike. “We want to support sustainable, durable growth in support of maximum employment, and price stability is crucial to that.”

Barr’s comments on monetary policy were brief, with most of his speech devoted to housing affordability, a problem he said has been compounded by a shortage of supply and elevated mortgage rates. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US rose to 7.12% last week, its highest level in more than two years, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.

(Disclaimer: This article is based on inputs from agencies. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

The majority of companies raising equity for the first time are now based outside London, according to research from Beauhurst Insights and the law firm Penningtons Manches Cooper, with the capital’s share of first-time deals falling to 44.6 per cent in the first half of 2026.

London’s share of all first-time equity deals had already dropped to 49.1 per cent in 2025, the researchers said. The last time more first-time fundraisings were completed outside the capital than inside it was in 2022, according to Beauhurst.

Companies using artificial intelligence captured 58.6 per cent of the value of all first-time deals in the six months to June, the study found. That compares with 32.9 per cent in 2025 and 17 per cent in 2024.

The 2,730 start-ups that sold shares for the first time in 2025 raised a total of £4.4bn, an increase of 11.7 per cent, according to the report.

However, 30 per cent more companies secured external capital for the first time, and the researchers said investors had committed less money per company and at lower valuations. Pre-investment valuations fell by 20.3 per cent to £1.5m last year, and the average has since slipped to £1.45m.

The average deal size fell from £2m to £1.7m. The median deal stood at £290,000, a gap the researchers attributed to the effect of several very large first-time fundraisings.

Henry Whorwood, managing director at Beauhurst Insights, said the increased volume of first-time equity raises reversed a long-term decline. He attributed that decline to venture capital firms increasingly needing to support their existing portfolio companies with more capital.

Mr Whorwood said the rise of AI had driven the reversal, with a wave of companies seeking to exploit the technology.

London leads on AI rounds

Although the capital’s overall share has fallen, London completed more AI first rounds than the rest of the UK combined, at 392 against 268, the research found.

London’s 60 per cent share of AI fundraising rounds was 11 percentage points ahead of its share of the market as a whole. The researchers said this reflected the concentration of investors and support services for technology companies in the capital.

Separate Barclays and Beauhurst figures published in July showed that UK equity investment rose to £14.4bn in the first half of 2026, with London accounting for the bulk of the money raised.

Outside London, first-time fundraising in the West Midlands nearly doubled in 2025, according to the report. Northern Ireland recorded a rise of 73 per cent and Scotland 60 per cent. London-based deal volumes rose by 27 per cent.

Largest first-time rounds

The report pointed to several very large first-time fundraisings. Isomorphic Labs, the London-based, Google-backed start-up that uses AI for drug discovery, raised £464m in March 2025.

Edinburgh-based Fidra Energy, which has developed a battery energy storage system, secured £445m from its owner, the US institutional investor EIG, alongside the UK’s National Wealth Fund.

In the first half of this year, the £814m of first-time equity raised by Ineffable Intelligence represented 39 per cent of the value of all first-time deals, according to the research.

The London-headquartered AI company was founded in late 2025 by David Silver, a computer science professor at University College London and a former senior AI specialist at Google’s DeepMind labs in London. The British Business Bank was among the backers of the Ineffable Intelligence round.

Separate Tracxn data published in July found that investors were writing fewer, larger cheques in the first half across UK tech.

SEOUL — YouTube’s tighter advertising rules on eating-disorder and binge-eating videos have cut ad money for some Korean mukbang and diet creators and pushed others to delete large parts of their archives.

Mukbang — eating broadcasts that often show very large meals — grew from Korean live streams into a global format. The latest enforcement wave treats some of that footage, and some diet vlogs, as content that vulnerable viewers might copy.

Tzuyang, a mukbang host with more than 10 million subscribers, recorded a line that Korean outlets treated as a weather vane. Filming at Sinpo International Market in Incheon, she said, “Eating a lot is apparently no longer the trend these days.” She added, “From now on, I’ll be a YouTuber who eats in moderation.” The Korea Times rendered a close version: “I heard eating a lot isn’t the trend these days” and “I’ll try to be a YouTuber who eats a reasonable amount from now on.” Herald Business noted she then continued a familiar large-portion video.

Smaller channels took direct hits. Salbbaejo, also styled Salppaejo or Salbaejo in English reports, a creator with about 440,000 subscribers, posted that monetization was suspended. “I don’t know which videos will be flagged, so I’ve also stopped uploading,” the creator said, according to Herald Business. The same post said YouTube had tightened binge-eating and eating-disorder rules and was applying them to channels with related uploads.

Diet creator Miso, with about 100,000 subscribers, received a guideline-violation notice and chose to delete 339 of 667 videos — more than half the channel — while appealing, Herald Business and SBS reported. Miso told Korea Times that older clips included specific weight figures and weight-loss routines that could be risky for some viewers to copy.

YouTube’s published advertiser-friendly updates state that content which “focuses on eating disorders and shares triggers like guides around binging, hiding, or hoarding food or abusing laxatives will not receive ad revenue.” The company said educational or documentary videos, and survivor accounts that mention those behaviors without promoting them, “won’t be impacted by this change.” Community guidelines have long barred content that promotes or instructs eating disorders; recovery and educational context can stay up with age gates or resource panels.

SBS summarized the platform’s position as not a blanket ban on educational, documentary or ordinary meal videos. Enforcement so far, that report said, has landed mainly on diet-experience and extreme weight-loss channels; it was not confirmed that large-portion stars such as Tzuyang had been sanctioned.

Titles, thumbnails, descriptions and tags are part of the review, Korea Times reported. A video that looks like a restaurant tour in the frame can still fail if the packaging sells a binge.

That distinction is why the industry is nervous. Tzuyang is known for feats such as 121 plates of conveyor-belt sushi. Hibab, or Heebab, holds a Korea Record Institute mark for 10 bowls of jjajangmyeon in 25 minutes. Neither was listed in the Korean coverage as formally demonetized this week. Their catalogs sit close to the line YouTube now draws between a lot of food on camera and “imitable” binge behavior.

YouTube’s eating-disorder work is not new. A 2023 blog post said the company would prohibit content featuring imitable disordered behaviors, including severe calorie restriction and purging, after talks with groups such as the National Eating Disorders Association. Ads and community rules were later aligned so that trigger-style how-tos would not earn money. U.K. researchers at the Centre for Countering Digital Hate said in July 2026 that recommendations to a simulated 13-year-old still included harmful diet videos, though at a lower rate than in 2024. A YouTube spokeswoman told the BBC then: “The wellbeing of our viewers is our top priority.”

For Korean creators, the immediate problem is cash flow. Demonetization stops ads on a whole channel or on flagged videos. Deleting hundreds of clips erases years of search traffic. Halting uploads, as Salbbaejo did, freezes the habit that algorithms reward.

Mukbang was never only comedy. Viewers use it as companionship, as food porn, as a substitute meal. Public-health researchers have argued that watching extreme intake can normalize binge patterns. Creators argue they are performing, not prescribing. YouTube’s text sides with imitation risk when the video looks like a method.

What remains allowed, on the company’s own pages, is a meal that is just a meal, a documentary that does not teach restriction, a recovery story that does not offer a how-to. What is being squeezed is the hybrid that made Korean food YouTube travel: a smiling host, a table that should feed six, a title that boasts the count.

Tzuyang’s “moderation” line does not rewrite the catalog. It does mark the moment the biggest name in the genre said the trend had moved. Salbbaejo’s community post and Miso’s 339 deletions show what the policy looks like when a channel is already in the penalty box. YouTube has not issued a Korea-specific ban on mukbang. It has said binge guides and hoarding-as-content will not be paid. The creators now have to decide whether their next upload is a dinner or a dare.

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This transcript was generated by AI. It is not curated or reviewed and is provided for convenience and information purposes only. The accuracy and completeness of the transcript are not guaranteed.

Nicole Benjamin: Hey, everybody. It’s Nicole Benjamin, your host here at Seeking Alpha, to bring to you another episode of The Weekly Grade. And joining us for today is none other than VP of Quantitative Strategy here at Seeking Alpha, Steven Cress himself, the wonderful guy behind a lot of the amazing products you see on site, our Alpha Picks portfolio, our Pro Quant portfolio, and our newest Quant Growth and Income portfolio. So follow him back on Seeking Alpha. Make sure you check out his articles, see if there’s anything that might be in there for you. And Steve, thank you so much for joining us today.

Steven Cress: Hey, thank you very much for organizing it.

NB: Absolutely. Now, I wanna jump right in. Today, we are talking about Pagaya Technologies and an AI-powered fintech holding. It’s considered a quant strong buy on the site, and this is despite experiencing significant pullback from its recent peak. So how does Pagaya’s network model convert loan volume and institutional power growth into operational leverage without requiring this aggressive marketing spend?

SC: Well, they’re doing a great job on it. As you can see by our factor grades, on the right-hand side, they are a very profitable company, so they’re managing to do it. And actually, you can see that profitability grades increased to B plus from a B six months ago, so the trend is going in the right direction. So this means that their revenue and earnings are converting to profitability, so their leverage has been applied well, and they’re taking leverage off the table and turning that into profits. You can see analysts are very positive as well. When you look at these factor revision grades, it has improved to an A.

That means analysts are taking their estimates up from where they previously were and at a much faster pace. You could see actually six months ago compared to the sector, it had a D grade, which meant analysts’ revisions were lower than other companies for this sector. But their fortunes have turned around, profitability has improved, and analysts are actually taking their revisions upwards. So in the last ninety days, as a matter of fact, we have had eight analysts take up their earnings estimates and zero have taken it down. So that’s really positive.

And for the upcoming quarter, which is November sixth, you’ve also had eight analysts revise up their estimates and zero have revised it down. So lots of positives on that front. You could see looking at the quant rating history, we did have a strong buy, and then we got slightly negative on it for a while. That was probably when we saw the momentum grade drop to an F and the revisions grade drop to D. So I want to sell and stay to hold for quite a period of time. But a couple months ago, we went into the buy territory and the strong buy, and it’s obvious from the improvement in the factor grades why. So currently, the company is it’s in the IT sector. It’s a software company.

It ranks two out of one hundred and sixty-six companies that we cover in software, and their long-term EPS growth rate is tremendous. It’s at a six hundred percent difference in terms of its growth compared to this sector. ROE, as I said is improving as well. If you actually look at the ROE growth rate, it is a forty-three percent growth rate in their ROE versus the sector at seven percent. And from a valuation standpoint, the company looks really attractive as well. It has an A plus grade on value, and its multiple is dirt cheap. It’s currently at a multiple of five point five times versus the IT sector at a multiple of twenty-three times.

So it’s literally at a seventy-six percent discount. Now, what I, I like today and what you led with is there has actually been a pullback in the stock. It is well off its fifty-two-week high. The stock currently is eighteen dollars and seventy-three cents. The fifty-two-week high was thirty-eight dollars. But we’re inter– we’re entering sort of an interesting type of year. Typically, most people know September is seasonally weak. But what also happens is with stocks that are well off their fifty-two-week highs, many institutions try to clear their books out of their losers by the end of October. So sometimes weak stocks that are hovering around that fifty-two-week low, they’ll remain low.

Today, this company’s got a market cap of one point seven billion, so it’s a really small cap. There’s a seller out there despite the strong fundamentals, despite that analysts are taking their estimates up. Notably, there are other strong buys out of the stock. If you look at the consensus from Wall Street analysts, they have a strong buy on it, and the consensus of Seeking Alpha contributors is a strong buy, as well as the quant. So that’s sort of the trifecta. You have three independent research sources all indicating strong buy on the stock right now. So it looks very timely. I’d say take advantage and be opportunistic of the pullback.

Institutions, of course, as I mentioned, they tend to clear some of their losers out by the end of October. That’s when their calendar year ends. So could remain weak for a little bit longer, but you wanna take advantage of that.

NB: All right. Well, I wanna jump right over Steve and talk about some of the products we have here on site, our Pro Quant portfolio, our Alpha Picks portfolio, and our newest Quant Growth and Income portfolio. And in this side-by-side comparison, the Pro Quant portfolio, Alpha Picks, and QGI, how should investors be evaluating the trade frequency, asset universe, and the rebalancing cadences when deciding which of these quantitative strategies will be a great match for their investment objectives?

SC: I’m glad you brought it up. So all three of these products are designed to be really user-friendly. Individuals don’t always have a lot of time. To do the research on their own. Even though Seeking Alpha’s premium site will rank all the stocks, and you could see if they’re strong buy, buy, or sell, it’s still a lot of research. So these products help bring forward our top strong buys. But it does it at a different pace. Some people like to be really aggressive, some individuals don’t like to be aggressive. So the Pro Quant portfolio was designed for long-term capital appreciation, but for people who like a high frequency of ideas.

So the portfolio is always fixed at thirty stocks, but it rebalances weekly, which means, on average, every week you have two to three new ideas coming out. So for individuals that like that pace of ideas, the Pro Quant portfolio would be the product. For individuals who want long-term capital appreciation, but not quite that high frequency of having to get new ideas every week, Pro Alpha Picks spreads it out to only two ideas a month. So on the trading date closest to the first of the month and the fifteenth of the month, an individual or subscriber would receive those emails. So you only get two new ideas a month as opposed to two to three a week with the Pro Quant portfolio.

And then for the Quant Growth in Income, that’s actually focused on people that want a combination of capital appreciation and income generation. So the common thread with that fixed portfolio of thirty stocks is every single one of them pays a dividend. So it’s got a nice little yield, and many investors like to have that yield. We refer to that as more of the all-weather type of product. So it may not have quite the performance of a PQP or an Alpha Picks, but it’s more of a steady eddy. So three different portfolios for three different risk appetites.

NB: Right. Well, I also wanna bring up some stats here that we have about these portfolios. And just considering what’s on the screen, all of these portfolios are demonstrating significant total return over their respective market benchmarks. So in an environment where rate expectations and sector rotations create this short-term price volatility, how does sticking strictly to the factor grades prevent losses during these market pullbacks?

SC: Well, I wouldn’t say that factor grades prevent losses. Typically, when you hit periods that are really volatile, stocks with strong fundamentals actually do sell off quite a bit because when anxiety is high and sentiment is more fearful, people tend to take profits in stocks, and they’ll go to safe haven sectors or safe haven asset classes such as cash or consumer staples or utilities. However, you can dull that downward volatility on your portfolio by d– with diversification. So a good approach I often refer to is having a barbell approach.

You wanna be able to focus on stocks that offer that upside potential and also be opportunistic when the prices decline, but you also wanna have that income generation on the other side of the barbell, and that helps to sort of minimize any downward volatility. Companies that tend to pay a dividend, you get paid to wait, so the stocks typically do not come off as much as in a volatile period. So we have a combination of both together in that barbell approach, where you’re focusing on both capital appreciation and income generation. It tends to really smooth out any downward pressure that’s created by volatility.

NB: All right, Steve. Well, thank you so much. I wanna jump over and wrap things up there. For everybody that’s listening in, go ahead and click the follow button on Steve’s page. Go read his article, see if there’s something in there that might be right for you. And then just for some housekeeping, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Content is offered for information purposes only. Unless stated otherwise, any and all individuals participating in the video are third parties that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Unless stated otherwise, the views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. The accuracy and completeness of content shared cannot be guaranteed. Seeking Alpha does not take account of your objectives or financial situation and does not offer any personalized investment advice. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker, US investment advisor, or investment bank. Thank you so much.

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