Crypto World
Kalshi Says CFTC Hasn’t Contacted It Over $5B Ether Trades
Kalshi, a prediction markets operator that launched Ether perpetual futures in May, says it has not been contacted by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and does not believe the regulator is formally examining its market activity. The statement follows a Wall Street Journal report claiming the CFTC is reviewing a pattern of rapid, highly clustered trades in Kalshi’s Ether perpetual futures.
According to the Journal, the trades appeared in repeated blocks clustered around roughly $5,500 and have led to allegations of wash trading. Kalshi disputes that framing, arguing the pattern is consistent with liquidity incentives and market-making behavior common across financial markets.
Key takeaways
- Kalshi says the CFTC has not contacted it and that it does not think there is a formal examination of its Ether perpetual futures activity.
- The Wall Street Journal reported regulator interest tied to rapid trade clusters around approximately $5,500 and alleged wash trading.
- Kalshi points to liquidity incentive programs paying market makers for maintaining quoted orders, not for the volume of trades filled.
- Kalshi’s response argues repeated fixed-size trades can occur when resting orders meet demand from many takers.
- The company recently reported rapid growth, with perpetual futures volume surpassing $1 billion about a week after the May launch.
CFTC review claims come amid Kalshi growth
The controversy centers on Kalshi’s Ether perpetual futures markets—trading venues where participants speculate on Ether’s price without necessarily taking spot ownership. The Wall Street Journal reported that the CFTC is examining a sequence of fast trades clustered around $5,500, citing a person familiar with the matter.
The Journal’s reporting also noted the trade clustering raised wash-trading concerns—an accusation generally tied to the idea that trading volume inflates without genuine economic risk-taking by either side.
Kalshi’s push into perpetual futures has been rapid. About a week after launching its perpetual futures markets in May, the company told CNBC that trading volume had surpassed $1 billion. That growth backdrop is part of why the Journal’s regulator story has drawn attention to how Kalshi’s markets are being supported by liquidity providers.
Kalshi denies wash trading and says it wasn’t contacted
Elisabeth Diana, head of communications at Kalshi, told Cointelegraph that the company has not been contacted by the CFTC and does not believe there is any formal examination.
“We have not been contacted by the CFTC and don’t believe there is any formal examination,” Diana said. She described the discussion as “rumors seeded by competitors,” adding that liquidity incentives can produce data patterns that are common in traditional financial markets. Diana also urged readers not to rely on social media chatter.
In its own explanation, Kalshi argues that the observed fixed-size trades align with a single market maker supplying resting orders at a set size and price band, which then get executed by many other participants.
What the trade pattern appears to show
According to the Wall Street Journal, trades of roughly $5,500 each summed to more than $5 billion in Ether perpetual futures volume over the prior month. The Journal also reported that Kalshi had offered some traders opportunities to buy equity in the company if they reached specific trading-volume targets. It further said Kalshi waived trading fees and provided monthly cash payments to encourage large traders to supply liquidity.
Kalshi did not address the equity-purchase possibility directly in its subsequent explanation, but in a blog post published on Wednesday the company attributed the repeated trade sizes to liquidity programs that reward market makers for keeping buy and sell orders available at predetermined sizes and within a specified price range.
In that post, Kalshi said the payments are intended to reward the presence of orders—liquidity readiness—rather than to compensate traders based on the volume of executions. It framed the recurring trade sizes as a mechanical outcome of how market makers can quote in chunks, and how those quotes can get hit by takers.
Kalshi also said that the executions involved hundreds of distinct traders, with takers repeatedly accepting the market maker’s orders. In Kalshi’s view, takers were “pretty consistently right” while the maker was “pretty consistently wrong,” which would not fit a wash-trading setup where both sides would be expected to behave differently if the goal were not genuine trading risk.
Why liquidity incentives can matter—and what to watch next
Market makers play a central role in derivative markets by continuously posting bids and offers, creating counterparties for traders who want immediate execution. The key distinction—at least in Kalshi’s argument—is whether a market’s activity is driven by incentives that support quotes (market structure and execution availability) versus incentives that could encourage artificial volume.
Kalshi’s position is that fixed-size fills can be economically legitimate: if a resting order sits on an order book, it may be executed repeatedly by multiple takers, creating clusters of similar trade sizes. That explanation matters for investors and traders because it affects how market quality is interpreted—specifically, whether patterns in reported volume indicate healthier liquidity or potential manipulation.
For now, the public record is defined by two competing narratives: the Journal’s report that the CFTC is looking into the trade clustering, and Kalshi’s insistence that the activity is consistent with liquidity incentive programs and normal market-making mechanics. Readers should watch for any formal CFTC action, additional regulatory statements, or further disclosures from Kalshi clarifying how its incentive structures interact with execution data—especially around the reported volume targets.
Crypto World
FedNow readies cross-border support for U.S. banks
FedNow has moved closer to supporting cross-border payments as Federal Reserve Financial Services prepares early institutions to test enhanced messages for the U.S. leg of international transactions.
Summary
- FedNow will support cross-border use cases while settling only the U.S. domestic payment leg directly.
- Early adopters will test enhanced ISO 20022 messages before wider participant access becomes available nationwide.
- Regulation J changes remain proposed, with cross-border functionality still contingent on Federal Reserve approval processes.
- Payall is among early adopters testing FedNow cross-border support for financial institutions serving global customers.
- FedNow settled nearly $275 billion across about five million payments during the second quarter alone.
Federal Reserve Financial Services announced the next phase on Sept. 23, saying participating financial institutions will be able to combine FedNow domestic settlement with established correspondent-banking arrangements that move the international portion of a payment.
The planned capability does not turn FedNow into an end-to-end global settlement network. FedNow would settle the U.S. portion between participating domestic institutions, while banks or other approved intermediaries would continue handling the overseas leg through the cross-border arrangements selected by each participant.
FedNow cross-border payments will keep a domestic settlement leg
The Federal Reserve has been preparing the legal structure for this model since April, when the Board proposed amendments to Regulation J allowing FedNow participants to use intermediaries other than Federal Reserve Banks in a funds transfer. Current rules have effectively limited FedNow to domestic transactions because only two U.S. banks, apart from a Reserve Bank, can participate in a transfer chain.
Under the proposal, a financial institution could use a correspondent bank or another permitted intermediary for the international portion and FedNow for the U.S. portion. The Federal Reserve said in its rulemaking that the model could support private-sector cross-border payment services without having the central bank operate the foreign leg itself.
FedNow currently operates 24 hours a day, seven days a week, including Federal Reserve holidays. Federal Reserve Financial Services states that each service business day runs continuously except for its technical cycle-date rollover process.
The Federal Reserve’s August review of U.S. cross-border payment work said FedNow had remained domestic since its July 2023 launch, while demand from banks for international use had increased as instant payments expanded. The same review noted that Fedwire migrated to ISO 20022 in July 2025, creating more common messaging across international payment chains.
Early adopters will test enhanced ISO 20022 messages
Federal Reserve Financial Services said a group of early adopters will test new FedNow message formats designed to carry information needed when the underlying payment involves a sender or recipient outside the U.S.
Payall Payment Systems is one of the named participants. President and CEO Gary Palmer said the company’s integration is intended to provide financial institutions with faster and more transparent processing for the U.S. portion of international payments while digitizing compliance and transaction-risk checks.
Payall described its role as helping banks “un-nest” payment chains, screen parties and automate risk controls. Those are company claims about its infrastructure and do not establish that every international payment using the future FedNow capability will process faster or at lower cost.
The company’s involvement follows earlier work with FedNow. Payall has previously completed FedNow testing and certification to support participating financial institutions, while its services cover cross-border payment orchestration and compliance systems.
Technical preparation began months before the latest announcement. Federal Reserve Financial Services said in April that enhanced ISO 20022 specifications were available through its MyStandards portal, allowing institutions active in international commerce to begin preparing system changes during 2026.
Once testing progresses, the Federal Reserve says other FedNow participants will be given the opportunity to adopt the enhanced messages. No general launch date has been published.
Regulation J approval remains required before full rollout
The most important unresolved step is regulatory approval. The Federal Reserve Board’s current rulemaking portal still lists docket R-1891 as a “Rulemaking Proposal.” The public comment period closed June 9, but the Board has not posted a final rule replacing the proposal as of Sept. 24.
The Sept. 23 FedNow announcement carries the same limitation. The functionality remains contingent on required amendments to Regulation J and corresponding changes to Operating Circular 8 receiving approval from the relevant Federal Reserve governing bodies.
Operating Circular 8, or OC 8, contains the operating terms for transfers through FedNow. Federal Reserve Financial Services currently lists the April 1, 2026 version as the effective circular, alongside operating procedures that took effect April 28.
Industry feedback on the Regulation J proposal raised compliance questions that the final framework may need to address. The American Bankers Association, for example, recommended clarifying how sanctions, anti-money laundering and fraud checks should work when a FedNow payment forms part of a cross-border chain. The group asked that banks be able to delay or reject payments where required to complete legally mandated screening.
Stripe’s comment on the proposal separately argued that the existing FedNow operating framework contained a residency restriction for certain ultimate customers and said operating-rule changes would be needed alongside the Regulation J amendment for the proposal to achieve its full cross-border purpose.
International payments will still rely on correspondent banks
The Federal Reserve’s design keeps existing correspondent banking infrastructure at the center of the foreign portion of each transaction.
A payment could begin abroad, move through correspondent arrangements and use FedNow once it reaches the U.S. banking system. An outbound transaction could reverse that sequence, with FedNow processing the domestic transfer before an intermediary handles the payment beyond the U.S.
The model resembles structures already used with Fedwire, according to Federal Reserve Financial Services. It does not create direct FedNow access for foreign banks that lack the required U.S. participation structure, nor does it establish a Federal Reserve foreign-exchange service.
Potential uses identified by the Federal Reserve include international payroll, corporate payments, property transactions, insurance disbursements and global treasury activity. The exact speed of the complete international transaction will still depend on the foreign leg, correspondent relationships, compliance reviews and local payment infrastructure.
The distinction is relevant as banks, stablecoin companies and blockchain networks compete to shorten international payment chains. Column connected stablecoin conversion with FedNow, SWIFT and other payment rails, allowing businesses to route different portions of payments through separate settlement systems.
SWIFT began testing a blockchain ledger with 17 global banks for round-the-clock cross-border payments using tokenized commercial-bank deposits. FedNow’s planned model remains based on conventional bank money settled through Federal Reserve accounts for its domestic portion.
FedNow volume has risen sharply before international expansion
FedNow enters the testing phase after rapid growth in domestic payment activity.
Federal Reserve Financial Services reported 4.997 million settled customer payments during the second quarter of 2026, up 83.2% from the first quarter. Their combined value reached $274.66 billion, compared with $271.25 billion during the previous three months.
Average daily volume rose from 30,317 payments in the first quarter to 54,921 in the second. Average payment size fell from $99,414 to $54,957 as transaction counts expanded more quickly than total dollar value.
For all of 2025, FedNow processed 8.41 million payments worth $853.4 billion. That represented 458.9% annual volume growth and more than 2,100% growth in settled value compared with 2024.
The network now spans more than 1,500 participating financial institutions. Federal Reserve Financial Services keeps separate current lists of live institutions, settlement agents and certified service providers, with its participant and provider files most recently updated Sept. 21.
In a separate domestic adoption move, Federal Reserve Financial Services announced a new discount program beginning Jan. 1, 2027, intended to encourage more institutions to activate and increase FedNow sending capabilities.
Cross-border testing is expected to proceed while the Regulation J process remains unfinished. Federal Reserve Financial Services has not published an exact date for general availability and says future progress updates will be provided to participants as testing, rule approval and Operating Circular changes advance.
Crypto World
Dow Jones Tech Titan Amazon Eyes Buy Point Amid Battle With Key Support Level
As the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other stock indexes traded mixed during Tuesday’s session, Amazon (AMZN), Incyte (INCY), Scorpio Tankers (STNG) and XP (XP) were among the names to watch. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite rallying sharply in recent sessions, traders who use The IBD Methodology from Investor’s Business Daily should be putting more capital to work…
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Crypto World
BTC, ETH, DOGE price news: Doge slides 8%, Bitcoin under $84,000 in crypto sell-off
Bitcoin traded near $83,900 as of Thursday Asian morning hours, down more than 2% over 24 hours after touching nearly $87,300, CoinDesk data show. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed Wednesday at 5.11%, up 15 basis points in a day, according to Treasury data.
DOGE took the worst of it, falling 7% to just above 9 cents. ZEC, XRP and HYPE each lost between 5% and 6%, while ether, SOL and BNB fell 2% to 3%. TRX held flat.
Brent crude turned first, climbing more than 4% to nearly $104 a barrel and ending a six-session slide that had been easing inflation worries. S&P Global’s flash survey of U.S. businesses followed, showing output growing at its fastest pace in more than five years, with the composite index at 58.4, its highest since July 2021.
The Treasury’s $70 billion sale of five-year notes landed later in the day and drew weak demand. It cleared at 5.033%, the highest auction yield since 2006 and about 3 basis points above where the notes traded just before the sale, meaning buyers demanded extra yield to take on the debt.
Crypto World
Hyperliquid (HYPE) targets $115 as tokenized asset trading gains momentum – CoinJournal
Key takeaways
- Hyperliquid’s HYPE token has gained 274% year-to-date, making it one of the strongest-performing large cryptocurrencies.
- CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said US regulators are preparing for tokenization, onchain finance, and continuous markets.
- Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets processed as much as $115 billion in monthly volume in June.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) has climbed 274% since the beginning of the year, outperforming other leading cryptocurrencies as demand for decentralized derivatives and tokenized real-world assets continues to grow.
The HYPE token recently approached the psychological $100 threshold, supported by expanding activity across Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets. Those markets allow builders to deploy permissionless perpetual futures, including contracts linked to real-world assets.
Comments from Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig have also strengthened expectations that tokenization and round-the-clock markets will become a larger part of the US financial system.
However, his remarks did not amount to regulatory approval for Hyperliquid or confirm that the platform will be allowed to serve US customers.
US regulators prepare for tokenized markets
Selig discussed the potential impact of tokenization during the 2026 Treasury Market Conference.
He said the CFTC is preparing financial markets for the arrival of large-scale tokenization, onchain finance and 24/7 trading. The chairman compared the shift with the transition from floor-based trading signals to electronic markets.
“Just as the transition from hand signals to electronic trading advanced our financial system, I believe tokenization can do the same for all asset classes,” Selig said.
He added that the regulator is committed to developing clear, principles-based rules intended to support innovation while protecting market integrity.
The comments reflect growing interest among US regulators in blockchain-based markets. The Securities and Exchange Commission recently introduced a temporary Innovation Exemption that allows eligible platforms to test certain tokenized securities products under defined conditions.
Tokenization converts ownership rights in assets such as stocks, bonds, or commodities into blockchain-based digital tokens. Supporters argue that the technology can provide faster settlement, fractional ownership, and continuous trading.
Regulatory support for tokenization could create opportunities for platforms offering real-world asset markets. Still, general statements supporting the technology do not guarantee market access for any specific decentralized protocol.
Hyperliquid would need to satisfy applicable derivatives, securities, and customer-protection requirements before directly offering regulated services in the United States.
HIP-3 volume reaches $115 Billion
HIP-3 has become an important source of growth for the Hyperliquid ecosystem. According to Hyperliquid Analytics, HIP-3 markets processed a recent monthly peak of approximately $115 billion in trading volume in June. Open interest continued rising afterward, reaching nearly $4 billion last month.
Open interest measures the value of outstanding derivatives positions that have not been closed. Its increase suggests traders are maintaining more exposure to HIP-3 markets rather than merely generating short-lived transaction volume.
The combination of high volume and rising open interest points to deeper participation. It may also create additional demand for HYPE because the token plays a central role in the broader Hyperliquid ecosystem.
CoinMarketCap data cited in the original analysis gives Hyperliquid an 18% share of the decentralized trading segment. That position makes it one of the largest venues competing for the expansion of onchain derivatives.
Real-world asset perpetuals have broadened the platform beyond cryptocurrency markets. Traders can use such contracts to gain price exposure without directly owning the referenced traditional asset.
These products can increase accessibility, but they also carry risks. Perpetual contracts use leverage, do not necessarily grant ownership rights, and may depend on external price feeds to track the underlying asset accurately.
Can HYPE reach $115?
HYPE recently moved close to the long-standing $100 price target, bringing a major psychological resistance level into focus.
Round-number thresholds often attract profit-taking because traders place sell orders around prominent levels. As a result, HYPE could experience a pullback after testing or briefly exceeding $100.
The former resistance area near $88 may provide the first meaningful support during such a correction. A successful retest would indicate that buyers remain willing to enter at higher levels and could establish a foundation for the next advance.
The medium-term upside target is approximately $115. The projection uses the length of HYPE’s previous rally to estimate the possible size of its next bullish leg.
A move from $100 to $115 would represent a further gain of 15%. Reaching that target would require the token to overcome profit-taking and maintain demand as its year-to-date increase approaches 300%.
If HYPE falls below $88, the immediate bullish structure would weaken, and the market could enter a longer consolidation. Rising open interest also introduces liquidation risk if highly leveraged traders crowd into long positions.
For now, HIP-3’s expanding volume, growing open interest, and broader momentum behind tokenized markets support the bullish outlook. The decisive near-term test is whether HYPE can convert $100 from resistance into support and extend its advance toward $115.
Crypto World
Gaming-State Lawmakers Urge SCOTUS to Review Kalshi Case
A coalition of US state lawmakers has asked the US Supreme Court to step into a jurisdictional fight involving Kalshi, a prediction markets platform, and New Jersey gaming regulators. In an amicus brief filed this week, the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) argues that a ruling favoring Kalshi could severely restrict state authority over sports betting-like products offered through prediction markets.
The filing supports a petition by New Jersey’s Attorney General and gaming authorities seeking a writ of certiorari. According to the court documents, the petition—submitted on Sept. 2—asks the Supreme Court to consider whether state authorities or federal agencies have control over prediction market companies. The dispute stems from an appeal after a decision by the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit.
Key takeaways
- NCLGS filed an amicus brief urging the Supreme Court to uphold New Jersey’s position in the Kalshi case.
- The lawmakers warn that a ruling for Kalshi could “render[] states powerless” to regulate sports betting conducted via prediction markets.
- The brief frames gaming regulation as a state responsibility, while not directly settling the argument about federal CFTC jurisdiction for federally regulated event contracts.
- Kalshi has not filed an official response yet, though the company has previously indicated it should not be subject to a patchwork of state regulators.
NCLGS asks for Supreme Court intervention
On Tuesday, the NCLGS submitted its amicus curiae filing to the US Supreme Court. The group backed New Jersey’s request for the nation’s highest court to take up the case, which centers on how far state governments can regulate prediction market platforms that offer contracts tied to real-world events.
The lawmakers’ argument is grounded in the practical impact that they say could follow from a Supreme Court outcome. In their view, if Kalshi’s “self-described ‘sports betting’ activities” are treated as outside the scope of state oversight, other entities operating in heavily regulated gambling markets would likely seek the same legal classification.
In a passage included in the brief, NCLGS warned that businesses could change their offerings to obtain similar treatment, forcing states to reconsider the regulatory frameworks they currently use to govern this “vice activity.” The brief also emphasizes potential “substantial harm and confusion,” characterizing the prospect of reduced state power as disruptive to existing regulatory regimes.
What’s at stake: state power vs. federal oversight
At the heart of New Jersey’s petition is a jurisdictional question: whether regulation should be determined primarily by state gaming authorities or by federal regulators—particularly the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Supreme Court has been asked to resolve an uncertainty that affects how prediction market products fit within existing legal categories.
NCLGS’s filing takes a broad position that “gaming-related matters” should remain with individual states. However, the brief does not fully engage with a competing line of reasoning raised in the dispute: that certain event contracts may be covered by the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction when traded on federally regulated markets.
That tension matters for market participants because it goes beyond the Kalshi case. If the legal boundaries are redrawn in a way that favors federal preemption, states could lose much of their ability to regulate not only prediction market platforms but also the surrounding ecosystem of operators that might attempt to structure offerings under the same umbrella.
Timeline and procedural posture
New Jersey’s petition for certiorari was filed on Sept. 2. It follows an appeal decision from the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit—an appellate step that typically signals a case has already raised substantial legal questions in lower courts.
In the Supreme Court, Kalshi has not yet issued an official response in the docket. The company has until Nov. 9 to file its brief setting out its position. In a statement provided after the initial filing, a Kalshi spokesperson told Cointelegraph that the company could not be “regulated by 50 different regulators,” pointing to concerns about inconsistent oversight across states.
While that comment does not resolve the legal question before the Supreme Court, it highlights the operational reality that accompanies the regulation of prediction markets: compliance regimes can vary significantly from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, and firms may argue that federal standards should govern where federal oversight is already implicated.
Why the case could shape the future of prediction markets
Prediction markets have grown into a broader sector that sits at the intersection of finance, sports, and consumer wagering. That makes jurisdictional clarity especially important. Without it, platforms may face uncertainty over licensing, product design, and whether their contracts are treated as gaming or as something else under federal commodities law.
The NCLGS brief suggests that states view the uncertainty as a direct threat to the ability to manage gambling-related conduct. If the Supreme Court were to adopt a reading that limits state authority, lawmakers argue states would need to rework their regulatory systems—and other operators could try to “amend their business and products” to capture whatever legal advantages come from that interpretation.
Conversely, the federal-jurisdiction argument reflected in the case poses a different concern: that event contracts traded through federally regulated structures may not be subject to separate state regulation, which could otherwise conflict with the CFTC’s regulatory framework.
For traders, developers, and investors watching the space, the outcome could determine how prediction market platforms plan for expansion. It may affect whether firms prioritize state-by-state compliance strategies or rely more heavily on federal frameworks when structuring products.
With the Supreme Court now considering whether to review the dispute, the key next step is Kalshi’s formal Supreme Court brief due by Nov. 9. Readers should watch closely for how the company frames the jurisdictional boundary—especially in relation to federal CFTC oversight—and whether the arguments on state preemption and federal exclusivity converge or remain sharply divided.
Crypto World
Fed’s Barkin says economy may be firming, inflation not limited to energy, tariff shocks
By Howard Schneider
BALTIMORE, Sept 22 (Reuters) – US economic conditions “are, if anything, firming,” with continued consumer spending and strength beyond the boom in artificial intelligence keeping the Federal Reserve’s focus on inflation, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Tuesday.
“The risks to inflation outweigh the risks to maximum employment. That’s why we raised rates,” at last week’s meeting, Barkin said in comments prepared for delivery to the CFA Society Baltimore, adding that the quarter-percentage-point hike “will help” restore inflation to the Fed’s 2% target.
“Will additional hikes be required, and how many? We’ll see,” said Barkin, who is not a voting member of the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year.
The Fed last week raised its policy interest rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range, with investors anticipating more increases.
Barkin’s comments follow those of other Fed officials who have broadened their concerns about inflation that they feel is being driven increasingly by strong demand in the economy, and not just by energy, tariff and other supply issues that might be expected to fade on their own.
Even those “‘passing’ shocks aren’t proving to be short-lived, or one-off events,” but are producing more persistent price pressures than at first expected, Barkin said.
“It is tempting to try to blame high inflation on a handful of categories with particularly high exposure to the Middle East conflict or to tariffs,” he said. But much of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is increasing at greater than a 3% annual rate.
“I am hearing momentum outside of data centers, too. The defense sector is hot. Manufacturing contacts are starting to sound more upbeat. Bankers tell us pipelines are healthy,” Barkin said.
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)
Crypto World
Think buying a car in cash is a flex? Why millions of boomers are quietly wasting thousands in savings
Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below.
Skipping auto financing completely seems like a “financial flex” that many Americans are happy to indulge in. Roughly 1 in 5 baby boomers or older, in fact, pay cash for their car purchases, according to a CDK Global survey (1) — and that ratio rises to nearly 5 out of 10 Gen Z car buyers.
Simply put, car loans seem to be less fashionable among younger Americans.
Top Picks
On paper, this might seem like a smart move. Auto loan rates for super-prime borrowers were roughly 4.55% and 6.30% for new and used cars, respectively, per Experian’s Q1 2026 State of the Automotive Finance Market report (2). So, looking at those rates, skipping the loan agreement might feel like an instant, guaranteed return on investment.
But the move could be costing you thousands of dollars over the long run. Here’s why.
Depreciation and opportunity costs
As of May 2026, a typical new car sold for roughly $49,220, according to Kelley Blue Book (3). Paying that in cash is a big up-front commitment. And unlike stocks or real estate, new cars rapidly shed value. In fact, a new car can be expected to lose roughly 30% of its value in the first two years alone, according to Kelley Blue Book (4). Beyond that point, it continues to depreciate at an annual pace of 8% to 12%.
In other words, you’re on track to lose tens of thousands of dollars in just the first few years of ownership. This depreciation cannot be fully avoided — but financing a portion of the purchase at 4% to 6% can offset some of the exposure.
Meanwhile, the cash you save by financing can potentially earn a higher return in other assets. The S&P 500, for instance, has delivered a roughly 10% annualized return since 1957, according to Fidelity (5).
This is the potential opportunity cost of paying for a car in cash instead of borrowing at a reasonable interest rate.
The case for financing
Paying cash for a car can feel like the financially savvy move. After all, you avoid interest charges and skip another monthly payment. But for boomers with a healthy nest egg, putting $50,000 or more into a depreciating vehicle all at once can also mean giving up access to cash that could be doing more useful work elsewhere.
Crypto World
Rocket Lab Stock Breaks Above Key Trendline
Shares of Rocket Lab Corp (NASDAQ:RKLB) are up 2.2% at $71.45 today, extending a bounce off familiar support at the $60 level. Furthermore, today’s price action has RKLB crossing above the 50-day moving average, which rejected the stock in July and August.
Per Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, this “crossover” event has happened eight other times over the last 10 years. Rocket Lab stock was higher one month later 88% of the time after these signals, averaging a 16.8% gain. From its current perch, a move of this magnitude would put the shares at $83.45.
RKLB’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 70% stands in the low 10th percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations. The stock has tended to exceed these expectations over the last year as well, per its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 97 out of 100.
Crypto World
The Fed Just Raised Rates, But Berkshire's Cash Payoff Hasn't Shown Up Yet
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since July 2023. Berkshire Hathaway holds $359.2 billion in cash and Treasury bills, a stockpile positioned to earn more as short-term yields rise.
But the boost is not yet visible in Berkshire’s books. Interest, dividend, and other investment income for the first half of 2026 came in slightly below the same period last year, even though the cash pile grew.
Why The Payoff Hasn’t Landed Yet
Berkshire’s cash and Treasury bill position, disclosed in its June 30 filing, has grown steadily since 2023, when it held roughly $146 billion, part of a rapid cash buildup that has drawn scrutiny from investors.
Higher rates lift that stockpile’s yield only as older bills mature and get reinvested at the new rate, a process that unfolds over months rather than instantly.
That lag likely explains why Berkshire’s first-half 2026 results, published August 8, showed little sign of a rate-driven income jump. Interest, dividend, and other investment income actually slipped slightly year over year, even as the underlying cash position expanded.
Net earnings more than doubled to $35.8 billion for the half, but that surge came mainly from unrealized gains on stock holdings, not cash income. Berkshire also kept spending during the quarter, including a larger stake in Alphabet, Google’s parent company, and other acquisitions, activity unrelated to the rate hike itself.
The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-setting body, has signaled it expects one more increase before year-end, and futures markets currently price an 87% chance of that happening.
If it lands, each new batch of maturing Treasury bills would roll over at a higher yield, gradually lifting Berkshire’s interest income further. Until then, the cash pile’s real payoff looks more like a bet on flexibility than a return already banked, one that depends as much on how Greg Abel deploys cash as on where rates go next.
The post The Fed Just Raised Rates, But Berkshire's Cash Payoff Hasn't Shown Up Yet appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
MIT Explains What Happens When the Trillion-Dollar AI Bubble Bursts
MIT Technology Review examines what happens when the AI bubble bursts, warning that hyperscalers may need to nearly triple productivity by 2030 just to break even on their trillion-dollar infrastructure bet.
Wharton finance professor Jessica Wachter and a coauthor built the estimate around confirmed hyperscaler outlays, projecting nearly $1.1 trillion in data center spending through 2027 across Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle. The wager matters well beyond Silicon Valley.
Inside the AI Bubble’s Productivity Math
Wachter previously served as chief economist at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). She found hyperscaler productivity must grow 2.7 times over to break even by 2030.
That calculation accounts for the cost of capital, a 15% return, and depreciation of the assets. Absent that growth, Wachter and her coauthor reach a stark conclusion.
“The current buildout will be the largest misallocation of capital in history.”
— Jessica Wachter, Wharton finance professor,
Alphabet posted a $5.9 billion free cash flow deficit last quarter, its first since going public in 2004. Investors increasingly view AI spending risks markets as the concentration grows.
Debt Spreads the Risk Beyond Big Tech
Morgan Stanley calculates hyperscalers will finance over half of their planned $2.9 trillion in data center spending through 2028. That money increasingly comes from external capital instead of cash reserves.
In Louisiana, Meta transferred an 80% stake in its Hyperion data center to private-credit firm Blue Owl Capital. The arrangement shows how complex hyperscaler financing has become.
Columbia Business School’s Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh warns that debt like this increasingly flows through pension funds and private credit vehicles. He says few people realize how deeply that exposure has spread into their own retirement and insurance savings.
Crypto strategist Arthur Hayes has floated a related scenario. He argues an AI credit bust could force the Federal Reserve to print money, pushing bitcoin (BTC) toward $1 million.
“A parlay bet by the capital markets and the economy.”
— Gary Gensler, former SEC chair and MIT Sloan School professor,
Gensler expects a retrenchment eventually, though its timing remains uncertain. Whether it arrives gradually or abruptly may determine how much of that trillion-dollar bet becomes a lasting loss.
The post MIT Explains What Happens When the Trillion-Dollar AI Bubble Bursts appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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