Sparked by the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil is no longer flowing out of the Middle East as it did earlier this year, which is having a major impact on the aviation industry
Holidaymakers face soaring flight prices and more expensive package breaks even if they’ve already booked because of the looming shortage of jet fuel.
Sparked by the Iran War and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil is no longer flowing out of the Middle East as it did earlier this year. Supplies of jet fuel built up by European countries have been severely depleted.
In general, some European countries hold several months’ worth of jet fuel inventory at a time, according to an IEA report released last week. “Every passing day that the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, Europe is edging closer to supply shortages,” said Amaar Khan, head of European jet fuel pricing at Argus Media. “The Strait accounts for around 40% of Europe’s jet fuel imports, but no jet fuel has passed the Strait since the war broke out.”
There are four main ways that the jet fuel shortage could impact British holidaymakers: rising flight prices, extra fees, cancelled flights and package break surcharges. We’ve explained each one below.
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Rising flight prices
Jet fuel — a refined kerosene-based oil product — is airlines’ biggest cost, making up about 30% of overall expenses, according to the International Air Transport Association. And jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since the war began. Shortages could start next.
Already, a number of airlines have started bumping up the cost of tickets.
Just last week, it emerged that Virgin Atlantic had increased some flight costs with an extra £50 fuel surcharge on economy-class tickets, while premium economy fares are climbing by £180 and business class by £360.
Air France and KLM fares are also going up. They are likely to cost an additional €50, bringing the fuel surcharge to €100 (£86.98) on top of the standard fare. Meanwhile, flights to the United States, Canada and Mexico could increase by €70 (£60.89), and an economy round trip could cost an extra €10 (£8.70).
If you’ve already got your flights booked, you don’t need to worry. You are not going to be asked retrospectively to pay extra on your air fare. Once you have paid, the airline will not come after you for any more cash – unless the government hikes aviation fees, which they don’t appear poised to do.
Extra fees
Many passengers will have booked their flights months in advance, before the US and Israel attacked Iran and fuel prices started rising. Because airlines can’t bump up fares that’re already booked but for which they’re now making less money, they have started looking for other ways to make a bit of extra cash.
American Airlines has said it would hike checked baggage fees by $10 (£7.40) each for the first and second checked bags and by $150 (£111) for the third checked bag on domestic and short-haul international flights. Southwest Airlines has said it will hike checked baggage fees by $10 for the first and second bags, raising costs to $45 (£33) for the first bag and $55 (£40) for the second.
As passengers often add extra luggage just before they fly, these rises could impact passengers who booked flights before the invasion.
No major European airlines have made similar changes.
Cancelled flights
Last week, International Energy Agency Director Fatih Birol said Europe has “maybe six weeks” of remaining jet fuel supplies and said the global economy faces its “largest energy crisis.”
Many major airlines have already cancelled flights because of the fuel price rises and falling demand, and more are likely to do so.
Swedish flag carrier SAS has said it would cancel 1,000 flights in April because of high oil and jet fuel prices, after cancelling a “couple hundred” flights in March. United Airlines said that five per cent of flights would be cancelled in the second and third quarters of 2026, while Dutch airline KLM has cancelled 160 flights for the coming month.
Other airlines, such as BA, have suspended whole routes to parts of the Middle East due to the conflict, while Virgin Atlantic announced earlier this month that it would be permanently scrapping its London flight to Riyadh from April.
Under UK law, if your flight is cancelled more than 14 days before it is due to depart, you are not entitled to compensation. However, your airline does have to offer you a full refund or help you find an alternative flight.
In the latter case, it’s up to you whether to fly as soon as possible after the cancelled flight, or at a later date that suits you. Although most airlines will book you onto another of their flights to the same destination, if an alternative airline is flying there significantly sooner or other suitable modes of transport are available, then you may have the right to be booked onto that alternative transport instead. You can discuss this with your airline.
Given that airfares may be significantly higher than when you booked, opting for an alternative flight rather than taking a refund may work out in your favour.
Extra package break costs
A largely overlooked clause in package holiday terms and conditions could result in the price of a package holiday increasing by hundreds of pounds – even after you’ve already made your booking and payment.
An article by Which? drew attention to the obscure clause found within Package Travel Regulations. It reveals that UK holiday companies can impose an additional charge of up to 8% on a package holiday price, without being required to provide a free cancellation option, under three specific circumstances.
These circumstances include: a destination introducing additional taxes or other charges, a significant shift in currency exchange rates, or a rise in the price of fuel or power. Given the ongoing Middle East conflict, fuel costs have been rising noticeably, which means there’s potential for package holiday operators to invoke this rule for Brits who’ve already booked their holidays should these expenses continue climbing.







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