TLDR

• Circle shares rose more than 20% this week following Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Iran.
• Mizuho linked the rally to higher oil prices and fading expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• WTI crude climbed about 7 to 8% after tensions in the Middle East escalated.
• Circle earns most of its revenue from interest on U.S. government debt backing its USDC stablecoin.
• Analysts said reduced rate cut expectations add about 1% to Circle’s 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts.

Circle (CRCL) shares jumped over 20% this week after Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran lifted oil prices and rate expectations. Mizuho linked the rally to higher crude and fading Federal Reserve rate cut hopes. The bank raised its price target to $100 while keeping a neutral rating.

Circle shares gain as oil surge shifts rate outlook

Circle shares outperformed the broader market as WTI crude rose about 7% to 8% since the weekend strikes. Japanese bank Mizuho said higher oil prices could revive inflation pressures and reduce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The bank explained that Circle earns most revenue from interest on U.S. government debt backing its USDC stablecoin. Higher interest rates increase yields on those reserves and support revenue growth. Conversely, lower rates compress that income stream and limit earnings potential.

Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins adjusted their forecasts after reviewing recent market data. They estimated that reduced expectations for rate cuts add about 1% to their 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts.

They also cited Chicago Mercantile Exchange FedWatch data to support their outlook. The analysts said the probability of a no-rate-cut scenario in 2026 has doubled in the right tail risk distribution.

Bitcoin rebound supports market sentiment

Crypto markets reacted sharply when the Middle East conflict began over the weekend. Bitcoin fell in early trading during a broad risk-off move but later stabilized.

Bitcoin now trades near $68,100 after rising roughly 5% in the past 24 hours. The recovery has helped improve overall market sentiment around digital assets.

Mizuho increased its Circle price target to $100 from $90 following these developments. The stock traded 6% higher at $101.90 at publication time.

The bank maintained a neutral rating despite the revised target price. Analysts stated that higher-for-longer rates create a near-term revenue benefit for the company.

However, the report warned that long-term growth could slow as stablecoins become more commoditized. Competitive pressures may affect margins over time.

Circle shares also surged more than 45% last week after fourth-quarter earnings triggered a short squeeze. That rally ended an 80% decline from record highs reached last year.

The recent price action reflects shifting macro expectations and crypto market movements. At publication time, Circle shares traded above the revised $100 target set by Mizuho.

Shares of stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) have risen over 20% this week, outperforming the broader market following Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Iran over the weekend.

Japanese bank Mizuho attributed the rally in part to a sharp rise in oil prices, as tensions in the Middle East exploded. Higher crude prices could rekindle inflationary pressures, lowering expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

That dynamic matters for Circle. The company earns the bulk of its revenue from interest income on the U.S. government debt it holds as reserves backing its USDC stablecoin. Higher interest rates translate into greater yield on those reserves, directly supporting revenue. Conversely, rate cuts compress that income stream.

Since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, WTI crude has climbed roughly 7%–8% on elevated geopolitical risk and supply disruption concerns.

Crypto markets were jolted at the outbreak of war in the Middle East on Saturday, with bitcoin BTC$68,739.46 sliding sharply in early trading amid a broader risk-off move, but prices have since stabilized.

Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins estimated that reduced expectations for rate cuts add about 1% to their Circle 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts.

More importantly, the analysts pointed to a doubling in the “right tail risk” of a no-rate-cut scenario in 2026, according to Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch data, a shift that could further support Circle’s valuation multiple.

A roughly 5% rise in bitcoin over the past 24 hours may also be contributing to positive sentiment. The largest cryptocurrency is currently trading around $68,100.

The bank raised its Circle price target to $100 from $90, while maintaining a neutral rating on the shares. The stock was trading 6% higher at $101.90 at publication time.

While higher-for-longer rates are a near-term positive, longer-term revenue growth could face pressure as stablecoins become increasingly commoditized, the report added.

Circle shares gained more than 45% last week in a violent short squeeze following fourth quarter earnings. That move snapped what had been a brutal 80% drawdown from record highs hit last year.

Read more: Circle’s post-earnings surge nears 50% as short squeeze, not strong financials, fuels rally

HBAR price has faced repeated rejection at the value area high, signaling fading upside momentum. With demand weakening, the market now risks rotating toward deeper support near $0.07.

HBAR (HBAR) price remains locked in a corrective phase as price continues to trade within clearly defined value levels. Multiple failed attempts to break above resistance highlight persistent supply overhead, preventing bullish continuation.

As momentum fades near the upper boundary of the range, attention shifts toward whether key support can hold or if further downside rotation will unfold.

HBAR price key technical points

• Resistance Zone: Value Area High continues to cap upside attempts.
• Immediate Support: $0.09 high timeframe demand level.
• Downside Target: Breakdown exposes $0.07 high timeframe support.

HBAR’s recent price action reflects rotational market behavior rather than trending expansion. The asset has repeatedly tested the Value Area High, only to be rejected on multiple occasions. This level acts as a ceiling within the current trading structure, signaling that buyers lack the conviction necessary to sustain a breakout.

The inability to reclaim the Value Area High suggests weakening demand at higher prices. When price repeatedly fails at resistance without strong volume confirmation, markets often rotate lower in search of stronger liquidity zones. In HBAR’s case, price has now reverted back toward the $0.09 high timeframe support, which serves as the next immediate demand area.

The $0.09 region represents a structural pivot within the range. Holding this level would preserve consolidation dynamics and maintain rotational price behavior between the value area boundaries, especially after HBAR recently rebounded from its year-to-date low of $0.0725 to the psychological $0.100 level.

However, a confirmed close below this support would indicate acceptance at lower prices and significantly increase the probability of continuation toward the Point of Control (POC) and ultimately the Value Area Low.

From a volume profile perspective, markets frequently move between the Value Area High, POC, and Value Area Low as liquidity shifts. With the upper boundary firmly rejecting price, the path of least resistance favors a move toward the lower end of the range.

Should $0.09 fail to hold, the next major high timeframe support lies near $0.07, a region that previously acted as a structural demand zone. A move toward this level would represent a deeper corrective rotation within the broader consolidation structure.

Market structure analysis further reinforces caution. HBAR has not established higher highs or sustained bullish momentum above resistance. Instead, the chart reflects ongoing equilibrium conditions where buyers and sellers are battling for control without decisive resolution.

Volume behavior also remains subdued. Without a meaningful influx of buying participation, upside continuation becomes increasingly difficult. For HBAR to invalidate the bearish rotation scenario, price would need to decisively reclaim the Value Area High with strong volume expansion.

Until that occurs, the market remains vulnerable to gradual downside exploration.

What to expect in the coming price action

HBAR is likely to continue rotating within its value range unless a decisive breakout occurs. Loss of $0.09 support would increase the probability of a move toward $0.07. Conversely, reclaiming the Value Area High would signal renewed strength and invalidate the short-term bearish bias.

Two financial technology powerhouses are accelerating the integration of tokenized money into everyday payments. SoFi Technologies and Mastercard unveiled a partnership that will allow settlement of Mastercard card transactions using SoFiUSD, the dollar-backed stablecoin issued by SoFi Bank N.A. Across Mastercard’s global network, so-called stablecoin settlement could run around the clock, enabling 24/7 processing. In practical terms, SoFi Bank will settle its own Mastercard credit and debit transactions in SoFiUSD, while SoFi’s Galileo payments platform will give issuer banks and card programs the option to use the stablecoin for settlement across Mastercard’s network—the second-largest processor in the world. SoFiUSD, which launched in December, is issued by an OCC-regulated insured depository institution and is backed 1:1 by cash reserves. The move signals a deeper push by major rails to incorporate bank-issued digital dollars into everyday financial activity, expanding the reach of tokenized money beyond niche crypto use cases.

The announcement clarifies that the SoFiUSD settlement capability is designed to operate on a public, permissionless blockchain, underscoring the growing interplay between traditional banking infrastructure and programmable digital currencies. Mastercard’s Multi-Token Network is expected to support the stablecoin alongside fiat currencies, tokenized deposits, and other digital assets, enabling seamless, near real-time settlement across a broad base of merchants and cardholders. In addition to the technical integration, the parties indicated they will explore further use cases that could amplify efficiency and liquidity, including cross-border remittances, business-to-business transfers, programmable treasury applications, and stablecoin-enabled card programs—though these initiatives will be subject to applicable regulatory requirements and Mastercard network rules.

The collaboration arrives as Mastercard has been tightening its focus on stablecoins and tokenized payments. Earlier in the year, the payments giant partnered with Thunes to bring stablecoin payouts to the mainstream via Mastercard Move, enabling near real-time transfers to regulated stablecoin wallets through Thunes’ Direct Global Network. The broader context is reinforced by parallel activities from Visa, which has been expanding stablecoin settlement and payout infrastructure across its network. In September, Visa began testing a stablecoin-based cross-border settlement pilot that used Circle’s USDC ((CRYPTO: USDC)) and another token, EURC, to pre-fund international transfers, a capability that Visa subsequently broadened to support four stablecoins across four blockchains and more than 25 fiat currencies. A separate Visa Direct pilot in November has started enabling businesses to send funds directly to recipients’ stablecoin wallets, so freelancers and marketplaces can receive USD-backed tokens instead of traditional bank transfers. And Europe-based Quantoz Payments recently joined as a Visa principal member, enabling it to issue Visa-branded debit cards backed by regulated e-money tokens and to support stablecoin-linked products regionally.

Key takeaways

• SoFi Bank N.A. will settle Mastercard-processed transactions in SoFiUSD, expanding the utility of the dollar-backed stablecoin within a major card network.
• SoFiUSD is issued by an OCC-regulated, insured institution and is backed 1:1 by cash reserves, with the promise of 24/7 settlement across Mastercard’s network via Galileo’s platform enhancements.
• The collaboration paves the way for additional use cases, including cross-border remittances, B2B transfers, programmable treasury tools, and stablecoin-enabled card programs, all contingent on regulatory compliance and network rules.
• Mastercard’s ongoing stablecoin strategy aligns with broader industry moves, including Visa’s cross-border settlement pilots and stablecoin payout initiatives, signaling a shift in how banks and fintechs view digital dollars on settlement rails.
• Industry data point: the stablecoin market cap sits in the hundreds of billions, with transaction volumes approaching the trillions in certain months, illustrating the scale at which these rails could operate in the near term.

Tickers mentioned: $USDC, $EURC

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. The news centers on settlement infrastructure and utilization of a bank-issued stablecoin, with no immediate price guidance given.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The development underscores ongoing infrastructure improvements rather than a near-term price catalyst for mentioned assets or networks.

Market context: The move sits within a broader trend of traditional payments networks embracing tokenized digital cash, as stablecoins and bank-issued digital dollars become more embedded in everyday settlement, remittance, and payout flows. Regulatory clarity and network rules will shape how quickly and widely these capabilities roll out across banks and merchants. The momentum from Mastercard and Visa complements industry data showing growing stablecoin usage in both retail and enterprise contexts, while total stablecoin market activity continues to scale alongside mainstream financial rails.

Why it matters

The SoFi-Mastercard settlement arrangement underscores a practical transition from purely fiat settlement to tokenized digital dollars within established card networks. For card issuers and merchant acquirers, this reduces settlement latency and potentially lowers liquidity costs, especially for cross-border transactions that traditionally require multiple intermediaries. By enabling 24/7 settlement on Mastercard’s rails, SoFiUSD could improve cash flow matching for partners and suppliers and broaden the use of their own stablecoin beyond consumer wallets and crypto exchanges.

From a regulatory perspective, the use of a bank-issued stablecoin on a public blockchain adds a familiar governance layer: an OCC-regulated issuer with cash-backed reserves, combined with a trusted payments network. The collaboration also reinforces the role of banks as the backbone of tokenized money: even as blockchain-native settlement grows, the need for regulated, insured custody and robust compliance remains a central requirement for large institutions. In this sense, the partnership serves as a proof of concept that banks can participate in tokenized settlement without ceding control of risk management to decentralized finance-native models.

For fintech ecosystems, the initiative expands the potential for programmable treasury operations—allowing corporate treasuries and fintech platforms to automate liquidity moves, optimize working capital, and route funds with greater precision. That, in turn, could spur new product configurations, such as stablecoin-enabled card programs or cross-border remittance corridors, that leverage existing consumer banking infrastructure while leveraging the speed of digital dollars. The broader landscape—where Visa and Mastercard actively push stablecoin payouts and cross-border settlement—suggests a more interconnected payments environment where digital dollars move with the same confidence and traceability as traditional currencies.

What to watch next

• Regulatory milestones: how global and national regulators clarify bank-issued stablecoins and cross-border settlement rules this year.
• Adoption by other banks and issuers: any new partners integrating SoFiUSD for settlement on Mastercard’s network or similar rails.
• Cross-border pilots: initial remittance or B2B pilots using SoFiUSD or other bank-issued stablecoins for settlement on a global scale.
• Expansion of stablecoin payout programs: updates from Visa and Mastercard on new partners, supported tokens, and regional rollouts (e.g., Europe, Asia).
• Market data trends: ongoing evidence of liquidity, volume, and volatility in tokenized settlement ecosystems as rails expand beyond pilot stages.

Sources & verification

• SoFi and Mastercard press release detailing SoFiUSD settlement across Mastercard’s global payments network.
• Announcement that SoFiUSD launched in December and is issued by SoFi Bank with 1:1 cash reserves.
• Visa’s stablecoin settlement pilots and multi-stablecoin payout expansions, including USDC and EURC references.
• Aktual industry references to Mastercard’s Thunes partnership and Quantoz’s Visa principal membership for European stablecoin-linked products.
• DefiLlama data on total stablecoin market cap and CoinLedger projections for transaction volumes.

Why it matters

What makes this development noteworthy is the explicit bridging of a bank-issued stablecoin to a major card network’s settlement rails. If banks can settle card transactions in stablecoins with the same certainty and risk controls as fiat settlements, the path to broader tokenized money adoption becomes more tangible for mainstream merchants and large issuers. The architecture—cash-backed, bank-issued stablecoins moving on permissioned and public networks—offers a balance between regulatory oversight and the efficiency gains associated with tokenized payments.

At the same time, the pace and scope of these pilots will hinge on regulatory clarity and network governance. While 24/7 settlement promises improved liquidity management, financial institutions will scrutinize contingency plans, risk controls, and consumer protections as stablecoins become more deeply integrated into everyday spending. The collaboration also signals a broader strategic play by Visa and Mastercard to reshape settlement and payout flows—particularly across borders and in enterprise contexts—where the speed of liquidity delivery can translate into meaningful cost savings and new business models.

What to watch next

• Regulatory updates on bank-issued stablecoins and their use in settlement rails.
• New bank and issuer partnerships adopting SoFiUSD or similar tokens for card settlement.
• Cross-border remittance pilots and measurable improvements in settlement speed and costs.
• Regional rollouts of stablecoin-enabled payout programs through Visa and Mastercard ecosystems.

Trump family-backed American Bitcoin said Tuesday it has expanded its fleet of Bitcoin mining machines, increasing its computing capacity as competition among large-scale miners intensifies.

The company has acquired 11,298 new application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) miners, which are expected to add about 3.05 exahashes per second (EH/s) to its operations once it is deployed at its Drumheller, Alberta site this month.

The purchase will boost American Bitcoin’s fleet size to 89,242 miners, representing about 28.1 EH/s of owned capacity.

The additional machines are rated at about 13.5 joules per terahash, a measure of energy efficiency that can influence operating margins in an industry where electricity costs are a primary expense.

The expansion increases American Bitcoin’s share of the global Bitcoin network’s total hashrate, modestly improving its probability of earning block rewards. However, higher computing power does not automatically translate into higher revenue. Mining profitability remains dependent on Bitcoin’s market price, network difficulty levels and energy costs.

Network difficulty stands at 144.40 T, meaning that 144.40 trillion hashes are needed to find a valid block hash, according to CoinWarz. It has been at that level since Feb. 19.

Shares of American Bitcoin were little changed following the announcement before trading lower into Tuesday’s session, broadly in line with weakness across equity markets.

Related: Bitcoin mining’s 2026 reckoning: AI pivots, margin pressure and a fight to survive

Bitcoin-heavy treasury strategy carries risk

American Bitcoin, which went public last year through a reverse merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, has adopted a Bitcoin-centric corporate strategy that extends beyond mining operations.

In addition to expanding its hashrate, the company has accumulated more than 6,000 Bitcoin (BTC) on its balance sheet, according to industry data. The strategy mirrors a growing trend among mining companies that retain a significant portion of the Bitcoin they mine rather than sell it immediately, effectively using production to build long-term exposure to the asset.

Holding large Bitcoin reserves can amplify gains during price rallies, strengthening the company’s balance sheet and potentially enhancing shareholder value. However, the strategy also increases exposure to price volatility.

That risk became evident in the fourth quarter, when American Bitcoin reported a net loss of $59 million. The loss was largely driven by a $227 million non-cash mark-to-market adjustment reflecting Bitcoin’s price decline during the period. Such accounting adjustments do not represent realized losses but can materially impact reported earnings.

Related: Bitcoin miners chase 30 GW AI capacity to offset hashprice pressure