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AI bubble fears are creating new derivatives

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AI bubble fears are creating new derivatives
Debt investors are worried that the biggest tech companies will keep borrowing until it hurts in the battle to develop the most powerful artificial intelligence.

That fear is breathing new life into the market for credit derivatives, where banks, investors and others can protect themselves against borrowers larding on too much debt and becoming less able to pay their obligations. Credit derivatives tied to single companies didn’t exist on many high-grade Big Tech issuers a year ago, and are now some of the most actively traded US contracts in the market outside of financial sector, according to Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.

While contracts on Oracle have been active for months, in recent weeks, trading on Meta Platforms and Alphabet has become much more active. Contracts tied to about $895 million of Alphabet debt are outstanding, after netting out opposite trades, while around $687 million is tied to Meta debt. With AI investments expected to cost more than $3 trillion, much of which will be funded with debt, hedging demand can only grow, according to investors. Some of the richest tech companies are rapidly turning into some of the most indebted.

“This hyperscaler thing is just so ginormous and there’s so much more to come that it really begs the question of ‘do you want to really be nakedly exposed?’,” said Gregory Peters, co-chief investment officer at PGIM Fixed Income. Credit derivatives indexes, which offer broad default protection against a group of index members, aren’t enough, he said.

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449598305Bloomberg

Six dealers quoted Alphabet CDS at the end of 2025 compared with one last July, while the number of Amazon.com Inc. CDS dealers rose to five, from three, DTCC data show.


Some providers even offer baskets of hyperscalers’ CDS, mirroring baskets of cash bonds that are rapidly being developed. Activity among hyperscalers really picked up in the fall when news around the debt requirements of these companies became front and center. A Wall Street dealer said his trading desk is able to regularly quote markets of $20 million to $50 million for a lot of these names, which didn’t even trade a year ago.
For now, hyperscalers are having little trouble financing their plans in the debt market. Alphabet’s $32 billion debt sale in three currencies this week drew orders for many times more that amount within 24 hours. The technology company successfully sold 100-year bonds, an astonishing move in an industry where businesses can rapidly become obsolete.Morgan Stanley expects borrowing by the massive tech companies known as hyperscalers to reach $400 billion this year, up from $165 billion in 2025. Alphabet said its capital expenditures will reach as much as $185 billion this year to finance its AI build-out. That kind of exuberance is what has some investors worried. London hedge fund Altana Wealth last year bought protection against Oracle defaulting on its debt. The cost was about 50 basis points a year for five years, or $5000 a year to protect $1 million of exposure. The cost has since risen to around 160 basis points.

BANK USERS
Banks that underwrite hyperscaler debt have been significant buyers of single-name CDS lately. Deals to develop data centers or other projects are so big and happening so fast underwriters are often looking to hedge their own balance sheets until they can distribute all of the loans tied to them.

“Expected distribution periods of three months could grow to nine to 12 months,” said Matt McQueen, head of credit, securitized products and muni banking at Bank of America Corp., referring to loans on projects. “As a result, you’re likely to see banks hedge some of that distribution risk in the CDS market.”

Wall Street dealers are rushing to meet the demand for protection.

“Appetite for newer basket hedges can be expected to grow,” said Paul Mutter, formerly the head of US fixed income and global head of fixed income sales at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “More active trading of private credit will create additional demand for targeted hedges.”

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Some hedge funds see banks’ and investors’ demand for protection as an opportunity to profit. Andrew Weinberg, a portfolio manager at Saba Capital Management, described many CDS buyers as “captive flow” clients — bank lending desks or credit valuation adjustments teams for example.

Leverage remains low at most of the big tech companies, while bond spreads are only slightly tighter than the corporate index average, which is why so many hedge funds, including his, are willing to sell protection, according to Weinberg.

“If there’s a tail risk scenario, where will these credits go? In a lot of scenarios, the big companies with strong balance sheets and trillion dollar market caps will outperform the general credit backdrop,” he said.

But for some traders, the frenzy of bond selling has all the hallmarks of complacency and mispriced risk.

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“The sheer amount of potential debt suggests that these companies’ credit risk profiles could come under some pressure,” said Rory Sandilands, a portfolio manager at Aegon Ltd., who says he has more CDS trades on his book than a year ago.

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Is Alphabet (GOOG) a Buy Now? Strong AI Momentum and Analyst Optimism Offset Near-Term Valuation Concerns

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Google May Avoid Harsh Penalties as Judge Eyes Softer Antitrust

Alphabet Inc. shares traded near $294 on Friday morning as investors weighed whether the Google parent company represents a compelling buy amid robust artificial intelligence growth, record revenue and looming capital spending increases.

Google May Avoid Harsh Penalties as Judge Eyes Softer Antitrust

The Class C shares (GOOG) were down about 0.44% at $293.61 in mid-morning trading, according to market data. The stock has consolidated after strong gains in 2025, when it climbed roughly 60-66% as AI optimism lifted the broader technology sector.

Analysts largely say yes to buying the dip. Wall Street maintains a strong buy consensus on Alphabet, with an average 12-month price target around $368 to $379, implying 25-30% upside from current levels. J.P. Morgan recently reiterated a buy rating with a $395 target, while other firms see potential to $420. Consensus ratings from dozens of analysts skew heavily bullish, with few holds and no sells.

Alphabet delivered a standout fourth-quarter performance when it reported results in early February. Consolidated revenue jumped 18% year-over-year to $113.8 billion, beating Wall Street expectations of about $111.4 billion. Net income rose 30% to $34.5 billion, with earnings per share climbing 31% to $2.82.

For the full year 2025, revenue surpassed $400 billion for the first time, up 15%. Google Search & other advertising grew 17%, YouTube ads contributed solidly, and Google Cloud exploded 48% in the quarter to $17.7 billion on surging demand for AI infrastructure and solutions. Operating margin held steady near 32% despite a $2.1 billion stock-based compensation charge tied to self-driving unit Waymo’s valuation increase.

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CEO Sundar Pichai highlighted momentum across the board. “The launch of Gemini 3 was a major milestone,” he said, noting the Gemini app had grown to over 750 million monthly active users. Search usage hit record levels, with AI driving expansion rather than cannibalization. YouTube’s combined ad and subscription revenue exceeded $60 billion annually, and consumer subscriptions topped 325 million.

Google Cloud ended 2025 with an annual run rate above $70 billion. Pichai signaled heavy investment ahead, guiding 2026 capital expenditures to $175-185 billion, primarily for AI data centers, custom chips like the Ironwood TPU, and energy infrastructure.

That spending commitment sent shares lower in the immediate aftermath of the earnings release, as investors fretted about margin pressure in the short term. Yet many analysts viewed the move as a positive long-term signal of confidence in AI’s payoff.

“Gemini and Google Cloud put the company in the AI revolution’s pantheon,” one Seeking Alpha analysis noted, citing falling serving costs for AI models and accelerating adoption. Waymo, meanwhile, continues to scale robotaxi operations, recently closing a $16 billion funding round that valued the unit at $126 billion and signaling commercial traction with hundreds of thousands of paid weekly rides.

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Despite the upbeat fundamentals, risks remain. The U.S. Department of Justice’s antitrust case against Google’s search monopoly continues to wind through appeals. A 2025 court ruling found Google violated antitrust laws and ordered behavioral remedies, including ending exclusive default deals and sharing certain search data with competitors. Both sides appealed aspects of the decision in early 2026, with implementation oversight ongoing. A separate ad tech case could lead to further remedies, though a breakup remains unlikely.

Regulatory uncertainty has weighed on sentiment at times, but Alphabet’s diversified growth engines — search, cloud, YouTube, subscriptions and emerging bets like Waymo — have helped the stock weather the scrutiny better than some feared.

Valuation presents another consideration. At current prices, Alphabet trades around 27-29 times forward earnings, a level many view as reasonable given projected EPS growth into the low teens for 2026. The price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio sits near 0.7 for some forecasts, suggesting the stock remains undervalued relative to its growth prospects.

Zacks and other screens have flagged Alphabet as attracting investor attention, with several strong-buy ranked names in the sector for April 2026. Watcher Guru predicted the stock could recover above $310 by month-end, while longer-term forecasts see potential for $380 or higher by year-end 2026.

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Bullish voices point to multiple growth levers. AI integration across Search, Gmail, Docs and other products is expanding usage. Cloud is winning enterprise deals on AI infrastructure. Waymo’s progress in autonomous driving could eventually contribute meaningfully, with some analysts eyeing mid-2026 catalysts around further city expansions or even an IPO path.

Google I/O in May is expected to showcase Gemini advancements, potentially including more “agentic” AI capabilities that perform complex tasks autonomously. Cost efficiencies, such as an 80% reduction in some AI serving expenses through proprietary techniques, should help offset heavy capex.

Bears, though a minority, cite intensifying competition in AI from OpenAI, Anthropic and others, plus potential margin compression from 2026’s massive infrastructure buildout. Economic slowdowns could also pressure advertising spending, Alphabet’s core revenue driver.

Yet the overwhelming analyst view remains constructive. With 47 buy ratings against just four holds in one recent tally, the street sees Alphabet as well-positioned in the AI era. “AI boosts Search & Cloud, Gemini drives adoption,” noted one upgrade to strong buy with a $440 target.

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For income-oriented investors, Alphabet initiated a dividend in recent years, adding another layer of appeal.

As of early April 2026, with Q1 earnings due around April 23, the stock appears to offer a balanced risk-reward for long-term investors comfortable with tech volatility. Those betting on sustained AI leadership and cloud momentum view the current consolidation as a buying opportunity.

Short-term traders may await clearer signals from upcoming AI events and the resolution of capex digestion. Broader market sentiment, interest rates and any fresh antitrust developments will also influence near-term moves.

Alphabet’s track record of beating estimates — it has done so consistently in recent quarters — provides a buffer. The company’s scale, cash flow generation (record operating cash flow of $52.4 billion in Q4) and free cash flow strength support both aggressive investment and shareholder returns.

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In summary, while not without risks from regulation and spending, Alphabet’s combination of market-leading positions in search and advertising, explosive cloud growth and frontrunner status in consumer and enterprise AI positions it as a core holding for many growth portfolios. Most Wall Street professionals would characterize the stock as a buy at current levels for investors with a multi-year horizon.

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National Minimum Wage rises this week

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National Minimum Wage rises this week

Around 2.7 million people are set to receive a pay rise this week as the national minimum wage goes up by 50p to £12.71 for over 21s.

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Eamonn Boylan: Tributes pour in for former GMCA and Stockport chief

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Former chief executive of Greater Manchester Combined Authority described as ‘influential leader’ by Andy Burnham

Eamonn Boylan, outgoing chief executive of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority and Transport for Greater Manchester. March 2024

Eamonn Boylan, pictured in 2024(Image: GMCA)

Warm tributes have been paid to Eamonn Boylan, one of the leading figures in Greater Manchester politics for more than four decades, who has died aged 66.

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His death was confirmed today (2 April) by the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA), where he was chief executive from 2017 to 2024. Mayor Andy Burnham described his passing as a ‘devastating loss’ while paying tribute to the ‘influential’ public servant.

Mr Boylan assumed the top role at the GMCA in 2017, taking responsibility for Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service (GMFRS) as well. In 2019, he also assumed control of TfGM and supervised the process of returning buses to public ownership for the first time in 40 years.

His 42-year career included roles in local government across Manchester, Sheffield and London, alongside a stint as Stockport council’s chief executive before assuming leadership at the GMCA. He was appointed an Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in 2023 for his contribution to local government, reports the Manchester Evening News.

Mr Boylan stood down following the mayoral elections in May 2024. In the wake of his death, a book of condolence has been opened at Manchester Central Library. Mr Burnham said: “This is a devastating loss, and my thoughts today are with Eamonn’s family, friends, and all those who knew him. Eamonn was the public servant’s public servant, and a giant of English devolution. He led from the front but was rarely in the spotlight, taking every opportunity to lift up and empower those around him.

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“At the most crucial moment in Greater Manchester’s devolution journey, he took the foundations laid by past leaders and built it into an effective, efficient machine that continues to deliver. The fact that we are the UK’s fastest-growing city region is a testament to his leadership.

“For the seven years we worked together he was a source of great support, guidance, good humour, and friendship. I will always count myself fortunate to have worked alongside him.”

GMCA group chief executive Caroline Simpson added: “I am so deeply sorry for Eamonn’s family and loved ones, and for all of us that had the privilege of working closely with him through our careers. He was such an influential leader, in Greater Manchester and English devolution, and his impact cannot be overstated.

“But he was also an inspiration to so many people personally; a friend and a mentor whose massive intellect, humility, humour and kindness shone through every day. His dedication and his determination to get things done will leave a lasting legacy here.

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“He will remain an indelible part of the fabric of our city region’s growth and success.”

Councillor Mark Roberts, leader of Stockport council, said: “We are very saddened to hear of the passing of Eamonn Boylan and on behalf of the Council, I would like to offer our deepest sympathies to Eamonn’s family, friends and former colleagues at this very difficult time.

“Stockport is the place it is today because of the strong foundations Eamonn helped to build. His leadership gave our borough confidence, and his legacy can be seen in our town’s physical investment and ambition that carries through to today and the future.

“Eamonn dedicated his life to public service and was held in high regard not just for his professionalism, but for the way he worked with people across the council and across political lines with a focus on always doing the right thing for local communities.

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“On behalf of the Council, I would like to thank Eamonn for his service, his commitment to Stockport and the lasting contribution he made to our borough.”

Manchester council leader Bev Craig said: “I’m shocked and saddened by the loss of Eammon Boylan – a man who loved and contributed immensely to our city.

“Eamonn was a remarkable servant to Manchester and Greater Manchester over his long career and is held in high esteem by everyone who worked with him.

Eamonn Boylan, left, speaks at a 2017 Stockport Economic Breakfast

“After a long history of working in local government, including as Manchester’s deputy chief executive before becoming the inaugural chief executive of the combined authority, he led the transformation of Greater Manchester.

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“When we needed someone to step up as the Council’s interim chief executive in 2024/25 while we recruited for the permanent role, Eammon was the obvious choice and I was delighted when accepted the chance to help our city.

“He leaves an important legacy in the modern, confident Greater Manchester we see today and the gains we’ve made, especially across regeneration and housing. But he also leaves a human legacy, for those colleagues and friends who knew him so well, and like me will sorely miss him.

“Our thoughts are with Maria, his two children, wider family and friends and all who are affected by his loss.”

Tom Stannard, chief executive of Manchester Council, said: “I am deeply saddened at the news of Eamonn’s sudden passing. It has been a privilege to work with Eamonn over the years, both in Manchester and across all my previous years in Greater Manchester including as chief executive of Salford City Council.

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“He has been a mentor, confidante and adviser to me and many colleagues – always a source of great wisdom, advice and humour in the face of challenges, generous with his time and attention, and someone with an unswerving commitment to improving the whole of Greater Manchester for the benefit of its residents.

“Eamonn was an exemplary public servant and someone who has made a lasting positive impact on the area. He was a wonderful colleague and friend to many, myself included. He will rightly be remembered among the best public servants of Greater Manchester’s recent history. My thoughts, deepest condolences and love are with Maria and his family.”

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Pro Tip: Turn by-products into functional ingredients

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Pro Tip: Turn by-products into functional ingredients

Upcycled ingredients can be leveraged to tailor dough rheology, texture and shelf life.

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Mortgage rates rise to 6.46%: Freddie Mac

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Mortgage rates rise to 6.46%: Freddie Mac

Mortgage rates rose this week as the conflict in Iran continues to weigh on markets, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday.

Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday, showed the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.46% from last week’s reading of 6.38%. 

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The average rate on a 30-year loan was 6.64% a year ago.

Real estate agent and a couple.

A real estate agent shows prospective homebuyers a new location. (Getty Images)

“With spring homebuying season in full swing, aspiring buyers should remember to shop around for the best mortgage rate, as they can potentially save thousands of dollars by getting multiple quotes,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

LOS ANGELES LEADS NATION IN MASSIVE POPULATION EXODUS AS ‘BREAKING POINT’ HITS GOLDEN STATE

The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage ticked higher to 5.77% from last week’s reading of 5.75%.

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MIAMI OVERTAKES LOS ANGELES AND NEW YORK AS WORLD’S RISKIEST HOUSING MARKET FOR BUBBLE RISK

Home for sale

Home for sale in Evesham Twp., N.J., Feb. 26, 2023. (Fox News)

Mortgage rates are affected by several factors, including the Federal Reserve and geopolitics. Though mortgage rates are not directly affected by the Fed’s interest rate decisions, they closely track the 10-year Treasury yield. The 10-year yield hovered around 4.3% as of Thursday afternoon.

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National Burrito Day 2026 Brings Free Burritos, BOGO Deals at Chipotle, Qdoba, Moe’s and More

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Representation. A burrito.

It’s National Burrito Day on Thursday, April 2, 2026, and hungry fans across the country are celebrating the handheld Mexican favorite with free burritos, buy-one-get-one offers and deep discounts at major chains and smaller spots alike.

Representation. A burrito.
Representation. A burrito.

The unofficial holiday, observed on the first Thursday in April, honors the beloved tortilla-wrapped meal stuffed with rice, beans, meats, cheeses and salsas. This year, restaurants from fast-casual giants to regional favorites are rolling out promotions that could save burrito lovers serious cash — or even land them free meals for a year.

Chipotle Mexican Grill is leading the charge with its popular Burrito Vault game, which wrapped up Wednesday after giving away more than $2 million in prizes to Chipotle Rewards members. Players guessed hourly-changing burrito combinations at UnlockBurritoDay.com for chances to win free burritos for a year, BOGO entrées and double protein rewards. On National Burrito Day itself, the chain is offering free delivery on qualifying orders of $10 or more using code DELIVER through the app or website.

“National Burrito Day is always a fun way for our fans to enjoy even more of what they love,” a Chipotle spokesperson said in a statement. Rewards members who unlocked prizes earlier in the week can redeem them today.

QDOBA is making it easy for its rewards members to score a free burrito or bowl. On April 2, members who purchase any entrée and a drink will receive a free entrée reward (quesadillas excluded). The offer is valid in-store, online and via the app at participating locations. Gold status members get extra time, with redemption possible through April 5. The reward is automatically loaded into accounts on the holiday.

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Moe’s Southwest Grill is offering a straightforward buy-one-get-one-free deal on burritos, bowls or Moe Value Meals. Rewards members can use the promotion online or in the app, while non-members can simply mention the offer in-store at participating locations on April 2. The BOGO applies to the item of equal or lesser value, with taxes and fees not included in the discount. Moe’s is also running a sweepstakes for rewards members to win free burritos for a year.

Bubbakoo’s Burritos is extending its celebration with a BOGO offer for rewards members using promo code BURRITODAY on online or in-app orders April 1-2. El Pollo Loco rewards members can snag a buy-one-get-one-free à la carte burrito on April 2.

Smaller chains and regional players are joining the fun. Pancheros Mexican Grill is giving away 10,000 free burritos by sharing codes on its social media channels (Instagram, Facebook, X and TikTok) on April 2. Loyalty app users can enter the codes to redeem. Baja Fresh is selling $5 chicken Baja burritos in-store at participating locations, with an additional $5 off $20+ coupon for rewards members who make any purchase today.

Tijuana Flats is offering a free “Make It Wet” upgrade — smothering any burrito in queso, red sauce or verde — with promo code SAUCED26 at checkout. Torchy’s Tacos has $5 breakfast burritos available in-store until 2 p.m. at participating spots. Del Taco’s Del Yeah! Rewards members can get a free Classic Burrito with any $3 minimum purchase.

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Tortilla, a growing chain, is giving away 15,000 free burritos starting at 3 p.m. local time, though membership is required. Tocaya rewards members receive a free side of chips and guacamole with any burrito purchase.

Chronic Tacos loyalty members who ordered via the app on April 2 could take advantage of a buy-one-get-one-free burrito. Baker’s Drive-Thru had bean and cheese burritos for 99 cents while supplies lasted.

The deals come as burrito consumption remains strong nationwide. The versatile dish, with roots in Mexican cuisine but popularized in American fast-casual formats, appeals to a wide audience seeking quick, customizable and often portable meals. Industry analysts note that Mexican-inspired chains have benefited from consumers’ desire for value amid fluctuating food prices.

“National Burrito Day taps into that love for bold flavors and customization,” said one food industry observer. “These promotions not only drive traffic but also introduce new customers to rewards programs that keep them coming back.”

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Many offers require signing up for free loyalty programs, a common strategy that builds long-term customer relationships. Signing up for Chipotle Rewards, QDOBA Rewards or Moe’s Rewards takes just minutes via their apps or websites and often unlocks additional perks throughout the year.

For those not near a participating chain, some promotions extend to delivery platforms, though fees may apply outside of free delivery windows. Availability can vary by location, so checking the restaurant’s app, website or calling ahead is recommended.

Burrito enthusiasts shared excitement on social media Thursday morning, with posts showing loaded creations and deal screenshots. “Finally, a holiday that speaks my language — and my stomach,” one user wrote on X.

The origins of National Burrito Day trace back to informal celebrations that grew into a recognized food holiday. While not an official government observance, it has gained traction through restaurant marketing and consumer enthusiasm, much like other food-centric days such as National Taco Day or National Pizza Day.

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This year’s timing on April 2 aligns perfectly with many Americans’ midweek routines, offering a tasty pick-me-up. Whether it’s a classic carne asada burrito, a vegetarian option packed with beans and veggies, or a breakfast version with eggs and chorizo, the day encourages experimentation.

Health-conscious eaters can still participate by opting for bowls instead of tortillas at many chains, or choosing lean proteins and extra vegetables. Chains like Chipotle and QDOBA emphasize fresh ingredients and customizable nutrition information in their apps.

While the deals are generous, experts advise enjoying them in moderation as part of a balanced diet. Burritos can be high in calories and sodium depending on fillings and add-ons like extra cheese, sour cream or guacamole — the latter of which sometimes carries an upcharge.

For families or groups, the BOGO-style offers from Moe’s and others make it economical to share. Office workers might coordinate group orders to maximize free delivery perks.

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As the day progresses, some locations could see long lines or sell out of popular items, so early visits or online ordering may help avoid waits. Digital orders also make it easier to apply rewards and promotions accurately.

Looking beyond today, many chains use National Burrito Day to promote year-round loyalty benefits, including points accumulation, birthday rewards and exclusive early access to new menu items.

Burrito history dates back centuries in Mexico, with the modern American burrito evolving in the Southwest and gaining massive popularity through chains that standardized assembly-line preparation. Today, the U.S. burrito market is part of a broader $50 billion-plus Mexican food segment, with fast-casual concepts driving much of the growth.

Consumers can extend the celebration by trying homemade versions. Basic recipes call for large flour tortillas, refried beans, Spanish rice, grilled meats or vegetables, cheese, salsa and toppings. Online tutorials abound for everything from copycat Chipotle recipes to authentic street-style burritos.

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For those missing out on today’s deals, similar promotions often appear around other holidays or through apps like Uber Eats, DoorDash and Grubhub, which sometimes run their own burrito specials.

In summary, National Burrito Day 2026 delivers plenty of ways to enjoy a free or discounted burrito without breaking the bank. From Chipotle’s high-stakes game and free delivery to QDOBA’s straightforward free entrée deal and Moe’s BOGO, there’s something for nearly every burrito fan.

Whether you’re a longtime loyalist or trying a new spot, today is the perfect excuse to wrap up something delicious. Just remember to join the rewards programs in advance where required, verify local participation and savor every bite.

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MAHA’s impact on the snack category

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MAHA’s impact on the snack category

Speakers at SNAC International conference said it could be significant.

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UK inflation expectations rise as Iran war dims interest rate cut hopes

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Supermarkets and food manufacturers in England will be expected to help tackle rising obesity rates by making it easier for customers to choose healthier food, under a new government initiative announced today.

Inflation expectations among UK businesses have climbed to their highest level in more than two years, as the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict reshapes outlooks for prices, interest rates and growth.

New data from the Bank of England shows firms now expect inflation to reach 3.5 per cent over the next 12 months, up from 3 per cent previously and marking the highest year-ahead forecast since late 2023.

The shift reflects a sharp change in sentiment following the surge in energy prices triggered by the Iran conflict, with oil and gas costs rising significantly amid disruption to global supply routes.

Alongside higher inflation expectations, businesses are now anticipating far fewer interest rate cuts than previously forecast.

Before the conflict, financial markets had expected multiple reductions in borrowing costs over the next year. However, firms now believe there could be just one rate cut in the next 12 months, and only two by 2029, as persistent inflation limits the scope for monetary easing.

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Brent crude has remained above $100 a barrel, reinforcing concerns that energy-driven inflation could prove more durable than previously thought.

The rise in inflation expectations is already feeding into business behaviour. Companies now expect to increase their prices by an average of 3.7 per cent over the coming year, up from 3.4 per cent in February.

Economists warn that the impact will extend beyond energy bills, with higher costs likely to filter through into food, transport and other essential goods.

Industry groups have already flagged the potential for grocery prices to rise by as much as 9 per cent by the end of the year, while household energy bills are expected to increase sharply when the next Ofgem price cap takes effect.

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The data also suggests a shift in labour market expectations. Businesses now anticipate a slight contraction in employment over the coming year, reversing earlier projections for growth.

At the same time, expected wage growth has edged down slightly to 3.4 per cent, indicating that while inflation pressures are rising, firms may be less willing or able to increase pay.

This combination of higher prices and softer wage growth raises the risk of a squeeze on real incomes, with implications for consumer spending and overall economic activity.

The latest figures come against a backdrop of already fragile economic growth. The UK economy expanded by just 0.1 per cent in the final quarter of last year, and recent forecasts from the OECD suggest the country could face the weakest growth and highest inflation among G7 economies as a result of the conflict.

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Rising borrowing costs are also adding pressure, with government bond yields remaining elevated compared with pre-conflict levels, reflecting investor concerns about inflation and fiscal constraints.

In addition to energy costs, companies are contending with a range of domestic pressures, including increases in the minimum wage and higher business rates.

These factors are compounding the impact of global shocks, creating a challenging environment for firms already operating with tight margins.

Elliott Jordan-Doak of Pantheon Macroeconomics said the surge in energy prices is already influencing business decisions.

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“Higher costs are weighing on hiring plans and leading to increased price-setting intentions,” he said, although he noted that medium-term expectations remain relatively stable for now.

The rise in inflation expectations signals a turning point in the UK’s economic outlook, with the prospect of sustained price pressures reshaping both business strategy and monetary policy.

For the Bank of England, the challenge will be balancing the need to control inflation against the risk of further weakening growth.

For businesses and households, the implications are more immediate: higher costs, tighter financial conditions and a more uncertain economic environment in the months ahead.

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Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.

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Delta Air Q1 Earnings Preview: A High Bar To Fly Over, Shares Fairly Valued (NYSE:DAL)

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Delta Air Q1 Earnings Preview: A High Bar To Fly Over, Shares Fairly Valued (NYSE:DAL)

This article was written by

Providing timely and quick to the punch analysis of earnings and macro-related events across various sectors, with a focus on retail and real estate. I am a licensed CPA.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Gold Prices Slide 2.73% to $4,654.86 as Stronger Dollar and Rising Yields Pressure Safe-Haven Metal

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Gold prices hit a record high on a rush into safe havens and helped by the weaker dollar

Gold prices fell sharply Friday, with spot gold trading at $4,654.86 per ounce, down $130.53 or 2.73%, as a firmer U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on the non-yielding precious metal amid shifting market sentiment.

Gold prices hit a record high on a rush into safe havens and helped by the weaker dollar
AFP

The decline came after gold touched elevated levels earlier in the week, reflecting ongoing volatility in the yellow metal following a dramatic rally in 2025 and early 2026 that pushed prices above $5,000 and even toward $5,600 at peaks. Friday’s move extended recent pressure, with April gold futures also trading lower in mid-morning sessions on the COMEX.

Analysts attributed the drop primarily to a strengthening dollar and higher bond yields, which increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. The U.S. Dollar Index gained ground as traders adjusted expectations for Federal Reserve policy, while 10-year Treasury yields climbed on persistent inflation concerns tied to geopolitical tensions and energy prices.

The pullback occurs against a backdrop of significant gains for gold over the longer term. The metal surged in 2025 amid central bank buying, ETF inflows and uncertainty from trade policies and global risks. In early 2026, prices hit record highs before experiencing sharp corrections, including a steep drop in March that some described as the worst monthly performance in years.

Despite Friday’s losses, many Wall Street firms remain bullish on gold’s outlook. J.P. Morgan forecasts prices could reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by sustained central bank demand and investor diversification away from traditional assets. Goldman Sachs sees potential for $5,400, while other banks like UBS and Deutsche Bank project targets around $6,000 or higher in various scenarios.

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Central banks continued to accumulate gold as a reserve asset, a trend that has supported prices even during periods of consolidation. Demand from emerging markets and efforts to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in international reserves have played key roles. ETF holdings also showed resilience, with inflows reflecting gold’s appeal as portfolio insurance.

Geopolitical factors added layers of complexity. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including developments involving Iran, initially boosted gold as a safe haven but later contributed to volatility as markets priced in potential inflation from higher oil prices alongside stronger dollar dynamics.

“Gold’s recent correction reflects mechanical selling and profit-taking after an extraordinary run, but the structural drivers remain intact,” one commodities strategist noted. Rising oil prices from regional uncertainties have fueled inflation fears, which could eventually support gold if they prompt looser monetary policy down the line.

Technical levels showed gold finding some support near $4,600, with resistance around recent highs above $4,700. Futures contracts for April delivery reflected similar moves, with open interest and volume indicating active trader participation.

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For investors, the current dip raises questions about whether it represents a buying opportunity or signals further consolidation. Historical patterns suggest gold often rebounds after sharp sell-offs when fundamental demand reasserts itself. However, short-term headwinds from a resilient U.S. economy and delayed rate cuts could keep pressure on prices in the near term.

Silver prices moved in tandem, dropping more sharply in percentage terms on Friday, underscoring broad precious metals weakness. Platinum and palladium showed mixed but generally softer performance.

Retail investors have increasingly turned to gold through exchange-traded funds, physical bars and coins, and mining stocks. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF and similar vehicles saw flows that mirrored broader sentiment shifts.

Economists point to several macroeconomic drivers. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand. Higher real yields similarly diminish appeal compared to interest-bearing assets. Yet persistent fiscal deficits, debt levels and long-term diversification trends by institutions continue to underpin the bull case.

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In Asia, where physical gold demand is traditionally strong for jewelry and investment, buyers have shown selectivity amid price swings. Chinese and Indian markets, major consumers, have navigated volatility with a mix of bargain hunting and caution.

Mining companies face their own dynamics. Higher prices in recent years boosted profitability, but cost pressures from energy and labor could intensify if volatility persists. Major producers have hedged positions or expanded output selectively.

Looking ahead, key events include upcoming economic data releases that could influence Fed expectations. Any signs of cooling inflation or labor market softening might revive rate-cut hopes and support gold. Conversely, hotter-than-expected readings could reinforce dollar strength.

Analysts emphasize that gold’s role as a hedge against uncertainty has not diminished. In an environment of elevated geopolitical risks, potential policy shifts and questions over reserve currencies, the metal retains strategic importance for central banks and sophisticated investors.

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Some observers warn of leveraged positions unwinding during the recent rout, amplifying moves beyond pure fundamentals. Such liquidations can create oversold conditions that set the stage for rebounds.

For everyday investors, financial advisors often recommend allocating a modest portion of portfolios — typically 5-10% — to gold as diversification rather than a directional bet. Physical ownership, ETFs or futures each carry different considerations around storage, liquidity and costs.

The broader commodity complex showed varied responses Friday, with energy markets reacting to supply concerns while industrial metals faced demand worries from global growth outlooks.

Gold’s journey to current levels marks a transformation from its traditional trading range. What was once seen as a relic has become a mainstream asset class, with institutional adoption growing through vehicles that provide exposure without physical handling.

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Despite the Friday decline, year-to-date performance for gold in 2026 remains positive for many holders who bought at lower levels. The metal’s ability to deliver returns uncorrelated with stocks and bonds continues to attract attention in diversified strategies.

Market participants will watch next week’s calendar closely for any fresh catalysts. Earnings from major financial firms, inflation metrics and comments from policymakers could sway sentiment.

In jewelry and industrial applications, gold demand has held steady in certain segments, though high prices have prompted some substitution or delayed purchases.

As trading continues, volatility is likely to remain elevated. Traders using technical analysis are monitoring moving averages and support zones for clues on the next leg.

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Overall, while near-term pressures from currency and yield dynamics have driven gold lower to around $4,654.86, the consensus among major banks points to higher prices by year-end 2026. Central bank accumulation averaging hundreds of tonnes quarterly, combined with investor flows and potential monetary easing, forms the foundation for optimism.

Investors considering entry points may view the current consolidation as a pause in a longer-term uptrend rather than a reversal. However, prudence dictates monitoring dollar strength and yield movements closely.

Gold has proven resilient through multiple cycles, often rewarding patient holders during periods of economic or geopolitical stress. Friday’s 2.73% drop serves as a reminder of the metal’s volatility even as its strategic value endures.

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