US fiscal deterioration is increasingly becoming a key risk for global markets, with higher Treasury yields potentially putting pressure on equities and constraining the Federal Reserve’s policy flexibility, Jefferies said in its latest research report.

The brokerage said the US public debt has crossed the $40 trillion milestone even as the fiscal deficit continues to widen, creating an environment in which long-term borrowing costs could remain elevated.

The US fiscal deficit rose to $432 billion in July, the highest monthly deficit since March 2021 and a record for the month. The deficit for the first 10 months of the fiscal year reached $1.799 trillion, already exceeding the full-year FY25 deficit of $1.775 trillion. The annualised fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio also increased to 6.1 per cent in July from 5.7 per cent in June.

Jefferies expects fiscal deterioration to continue putting upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields. Nominal US GDP growth has averaged 5.9 per cent over the past 12 quarters, and the brokerage argues that nominal growth running above the 10-year Treasury yield is a signal that yields should move higher. Recent auctions underline the pressure: the 10-year Treasury auction yield reached 4.683 per cent, the highest since 2007, while the 30-year auction yield climbed to 5.216 per cent, its highest since 2001.

The pressure is compounded by rising government spending and weakening receipts. Federal government outlays surged 21.7 per cent year-on-year in July, while receipts declined 1.3 per cent. National defence spending increased 19.9 per cent during the month. At the same time, net interest and entitlement spending rose to 98.4 per cent of annualised government receipts, highlighting the growing fiscal burden.

Going ahead, the key market trigger will be the 10-year Treasury yield crossing 5 per cent, which Jefferies sees as a potential near-term risk for equities. The yield was around 4.69 per cent after recently touching 4.746 per cent. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent‘s decision to at least double long-term Treasury buybacks could help contain the rise, but the underlying fiscal pressures remain.
Jefferies also noted that the Treasury’s growing reliance on short-term funding and intervention to support the long end highlights the constraints facing monetary policy. The brokerage believes the fiscal backdrop is ultimately supportive for gold, while higher-yield risks could make equity valuations increasingly vulnerable if the 5 per cent Treasury threshold is breached.

A powerful new artificial intelligence model called Ox Alpha has quietly become one of the most talked-about releases in the developer community this month, offering free access to a massive one-million-token context window even as the identity of the company behind it remains entirely unconfirmed.

According to Bloomberg, the model appeared on AI marketplace OpenRouter last week under the label “stealth model,” offering a roughly one-million-token context window capable of processing text, image and video input. Ox Alpha debuted on OpenRouter and the open-source terminal agent OpenCode on Aug. 20, marking, according to Coursiv, the fifth so-called stealth model release to appear on the platform over roughly the past six months.

Technical specifications listed on OpenRouter describe Ox Alpha as a reasoning model built specifically for coding tasks, sustained autonomous agent work and production-level workloads. According to Techstrong.ai, the model features a context window of 1.05 million tokens, an expansive maximum output of 131,072 tokens, and full multimodal capabilities supporting text, image and video inputs. The model was promoted alongside OpenCode, with the preview billed as a zero-cost option for complex coding and long-running agentic tasks during a limited, roughly weeklong promotional window.

The scale of the offering has drawn particular attention given both its size and its cost. According to Startup Fortune, OpenRouter’s live model catalog lists Ox Alpha under the identifier “stealth/ox-alpha,” with prompt and completion pricing both set at zero during the preview period. ModelsAtlas, a separate service that tracks model listings across the industry, similarly confirmed Ox Alpha’s Aug. 20 release date and free pricing structure under the same stealth identifier.

Explainx.ai’s coverage indicated the model has already seen significant real-world usage since its debut, reporting that Ox Alpha has carried billions of tokens’ worth of traffic from coding tools including Claude Code and Hermes Agent, based on verified data from OpenRouter’s own usage dashboard. The outlet also noted that OpenCode’s hosted service, OpenCode Go, extended the same free access arrangement on Aug. 21, offering near-unlimited, completely free access to Ox Alpha for six additional days, with usage through that channel not counting against users’ normal OpenCode Go quota.

Despite the model’s growing popularity among developers, its creator has remained deliberately anonymous, fueling widespread speculation across the AI community about which company might be behind the release. According to Techstrong.ai, early technical fingerprinting analysis has led much of the developer community to suspect the model originates from a major Chinese technology lab. Developers analyzing Ox Alpha’s tokenizer across multiple benchmark prompts reported raw token counts nearly identical to those produced by Z.ai’s, formerly known as Zhipu AI, GLM-5.3 model, differing only by what appeared to be a standard wrapper layer. Additional technical indicators, including specific “dirty token” errors observed during testing, were reported to align with behaviors previously documented in both the Qwen and GLM model families, two prominent lines of Chinese-developed large language models.

Explainx.ai’s more detailed forensic analysis, published Aug. 22, reported that further investigation had strengthened the theory pointing toward Zhipu AI’s GLM family specifically, citing matching stack trace behavior, a shared error code numbered 1214, and what the outlet described as a 30-out-of-30 tokenizer match against known GLM model characteristics. Even so, the outlet emphasized that no official confirmation from any lab had been issued as of that analysis, meaning the GLM theory remained a strong but ultimately unverified hypothesis rather than a confirmed identification.

Alternative theories have also circulated within the developer community, with some analysts pointing toward Xiaomi as a possible source given the company’s own history of releasing AI models. According to Explainx.ai, OpenRouter has a documented pattern of eventually revealing the identities behind some of its past stealth model releases, noting that two previous stealth models, known during their preview periods as Hunter Alpha and Healer Alpha, were later confirmed to be Xiaomi MiMo models once their creator chose to go public. As of this report, Ox Alpha’s creator has not received any such official reveal.

OpenRouter’s own official listing for Ox Alpha provides limited additional clarity regarding the model’s origins while addressing one notable data privacy concern directly. According to the platform’s public documentation, “Ox Alpha is a stealth model. It is developed and operated by a third-party provider who has chosen to remain anonymous during this preview. OpenRouter routes requests to it and is not its developer, owner, or provider. Prompts and completions are retained by the provider and are not used for training; all other use is governed by the Stealth Model Terms.”

That data retention disclosure represents a notable departure from how some previous stealth model releases have historically operated. According to Explainx.ai, stealth model providers have historically logged user prompts specifically to gather data for further model improvement and training, whereas Ox Alpha’s listing makes a comparatively narrower claim regarding how submitted data will be used and retained during this particular preview period.

The launch also coincides with significant broader corporate activity involving OpenRouter itself. According to Startup Fortune, payments company Stripe has reportedly agreed to acquire OpenRouter, the startup whose API platform routes developer requests across more than 400 different AI models, in a deal valued at more than $7 billion, a figure representing more than five times the roughly $1.3 billion valuation OpenRouter had achieved in a funding round completed just months earlier.

For developers eager to test Ox Alpha’s capabilities while the free access window remains available, several outlets have offered practical guidance on how to responsibly evaluate the model. Coursiv recommended that developers use the preview period to test genuine, non-sensitive tasks, such as fixing a bug in a small project or adding a feature alongside accompanying tests, rather than experimenting with sensitive proprietary code or data given the still-unconfirmed identity of the provider handling and retaining submitted prompts. Startup Fortune similarly cautioned developers to treat data retention, the provider’s continued anonymity, and any unverified performance or capacity claims as the primary limiting factors to weigh when deciding how extensively to incorporate the free model into real development workflows, rather than focusing purely on its zero-dollar price tag.

As the promotional free-access window continues to run its course, developers and industry analysts are expected to keep closely monitoring both Ox Alpha’s real-world performance benchmarks and any further forensic clues that might eventually reveal which company built the model, with the current leading theory pointing toward Zhipu AI’s GLM lineage, though that identification remains unconfirmed by any official source as of this report.

Deputy Minister Jeseth Thaiseth reassured the public about Thailand’s tsunami warning system’s reliability after buoy issues, emphasizing integrated monitoring, immediate alerts, and ongoing vigilance without panic.

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Key Points

• Deputy Minister of Interior Jeseth Thaiseth reassured the public about Thailand’s robust tsunami warning capabilities, clarifying that the system relies on a comprehensive network rather than a single buoy, which recently malfunctioned in the Andaman Sea.
• The government can issue immediate tsunami alerts through various channels, including direct Cell Broadcast messages to mobile phones in high-risk areas. Authorities encourage vigilance without panic, emphasizing continuous monitoring by the Ministry of Interior and the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM).
• DDPM Director-General Theerapat Katchamat noted that strong southwest monsoon waves likely caused the buoy’s drift. A recovery mission is planned in collaboration with the Royal Thai Navy, with a replacement buoy to be installed in November 2026. Despite the buoy’s temporary loss, Thailand’s tsunami warning system remains fully operational.

Deputy Minister of Interior Jeseth Thaiseth reassured the public about the country’s tsunami warning capabilities after reports of a malfunctioning detection buoy in the Andaman Sea sparked concern on social media.

​The Deputy Minister emphasized that the national warning system relies on an integrated network of international data, seismic monitors, and coastal sea-level stations, all governed by a rigorous Standard Operating Procedure (SOP), rather than a single buoy.

The Deputy Minister stated that the government can issue immediate alerts through multiple channels, including direct Cell Broadcast messages to mobile phones in high-risk areas. He encouraged the public to remain vigilant but not panic, and confirmed that the Ministry of Interior and the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) are continuously monitoring the situation as a top priority.

DDPM Director-General Theerapat Katchamat explained that strong southwest monsoon waves likely caused the buoy to drift. GPS tracking places the buoy about 111 kilometers from Koh Phayam in Ranong and 44 kilometers from the Surin Islands in Phang Nga. The DDPM, in collaboration with the Royal Thai Navy, is preparing a recovery mission and plans to install a replacement buoy in November 2026, when sea conditions are safe for large oceanographic research vessels.

Officials confirmed that the temporary loss of the Andaman Sea buoy does not compromise Thailand’s tsunami warning capabilities. The Minister emphasized that the integrated multi-agency surveillance system remains fully operational and capable of providing timely and accurate alerts to the public.

Source : Thai Government Confirms Tsunami Warning System Remains Operational

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is implementing a regional strategy to attract high-value Chinese travelers through wellness, sports, and family tourism, enhancing Thailand’s image and promoting emerging destinations.

Overview of TAT’s New Strategy

As of August 18, 2026, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is refining its tourism strategy, specifically targeting consumers across eastern, western, and northern China. Focusing on localized efforts through its Shanghai, Chengdu, and Beijing offices, TAT aims to attract high-value travellers by introducing new itineraries. The goal is to distribute tourism benefits to lesser-known Thai destinations, aligning with the interests of diverse Chinese travellers. By emphasizing wellness, sports, culture, and community-based attractions, TAT intends to enhance the travel experience and position Thailand as a premier travel destination.

Targeting Diverse Travelers

In eastern China, the focus is on wellness tourism through the campaign “Healing Is the New Luxury,” promoted via partnerships with platforms like LANN Space and travel agency Tuniu.com. TAT’s Chengdu Office in western China is leveraging sports tourism by collaborating with Zx-tour to encourage participation in marathon events across Thailand. Meanwhile, Beijing is targeting families from northern China, accentuating cultural connections and summer holiday experiences through events like “Cool Summer Breeze” in Jilin Province. These initiatives highlight the alignment of Thailand’s tourism offerings with the preferences of Chinese travelers.

Strengthening China’s Role in Thai Tourism

China continues to be a cornerstone for Thailand’s tourism market, with 3,149,889 arrivals recorded in early 2026. TAT expects this number to surpass five million by year-end, under the “Trusted Thailand” initiative, ensuring quality and safety for visitors. With a focus on high-value segments, TAT is driving tourism revenue and encouraging regional economic growth, benefiting sectors such as hotels, restaurants, and retail. Through these multifaceted campaigns, TAT not only aims for increased visitor numbers but also seeks long-term, sustainable tourism partnerships with China, further solidifying Thailand’s competitive edge.

Source : TAT adopts micro-regional strategy to capture China’s high-value travel segments

Bitcoin and gold shot higher this week, with both getting a boost from some frantic action surrounding the bond market, and the cryptocurrency also benefiting from activity in Washington.

Bitcoin had dropped from a January high of around $95,000 to below $60,000 at the end of June. Investors shied away from speculative assets earlier in the year and crypto supporters were concerned about the lack of movement on proposed regulation of the industry. On Friday, bitcoin rose above $77,000.

Gold hit a high above $5,300 in January but dropped to around $4,000 in June as rising rates made interest-bearing investments more attractive. Gold rose to $4,661 on Friday.The first jolt arrived Wednesday when the Treasury Department announced plans to significantly increase its buybacks of long-term Treasurys, or government debt. On the same day, President Donald Trump, who made about $1.2 billion last year from various crypto holdings, urged Congress to move quickly on crypto legislation.

There was an almost immediate reaction, which included a dollar sell-off and a jump in the value of gold and bitcoin as investors moved toward alternative assets.

How these two investments caught fire can be understood in the context of several developments this week.
The Treasury stepped into the bond market – forcefullyIn a surprise announcement Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department said that it would at least double the size of its planned purchases of longer-term government debt. The maneuver was intended to calm bond markets after a sustained sell-off, meaning investors were asking for higher yields to lend money to the U.S., which investors suddenly viewed as riskier

That’s because while the Treasury intervention worked, at least for a short period, it also raised questions about whether the government is trying to push borrowing costs lower despite inflationary pressures. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is attempting to lower long-term borrowing costs, a move that can put upward pressure on inflation at a time when inflation is already elevated. Bessent’s maneuver could handcuff the Federal Reserve, which fights inflation by raising interest rates.

Debt, inflation, and the “debasement trade” heat up

Then there’s the national debt, which surpassed a record $40 trillion on the same day that the Treasury’s actions unfolded. The milestone figure was recorded just five months after the U.S. hit a record $39 trillion debt in March. It reached $38 trillion five months before that, in October.

There is already a lot of anxiety over inflation, particularly because of the conflict in Iran and soaring energy prices. If yields on U.S. bonds are not truly reflecting risk, you can often see that play out in the value of the U.S. currency, which took a significant downward swoop Wednesday.

So where does the money that was invested in the dollar or Treasurys go? This week, it appears to have been funneled into what is known as the “debasement trade,” when investors flood into alternative assets such as gold, which rose more than 2% Wednesday. The debasement trade now includes bitcoin. Bitcoin jumped more than 20% this week.

Crypto had a very good week in Washington

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump, who banked nearly $1.2 billion from his crypto businesses last year, held a crypto currency conference at the White House where he called on Congress to pass the crypto-friendly Clarity Act, saying that it would “keep us ahead of China, keep us ahead of everyone else.”

Trump then yielded the floor to Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Mike Selig, who vowed to “use every tool available” to advance Trump’s agenda.

Selig’s comments came ahead of a CFTC meeting Thursday examining ways the agency can use its existing authority to ease crypto rules. A day earlier, other regulators proposed rules making it easier for crypto companies and projects to raise money from the public.

Since taking office, Trump has pushed policies friendly to the crypto industry and reversed a Biden administration regulatory crackdown.

Bitcoin’s big squeeze sent prices even higher

Bitcoin can sometimes get a bump when the U.S. dollar is on the ropes as investors try to unload the U.S. currency. But you don’t typically see the kind of related movement that was observed with bitcoin this week.

The price of bitcoin had been stuck between $62,000 and $67,000 for weeks. Investors seized on that weakness, many placing bets that the cryptocurrency would be stuck in that range for some time to come.

However, on the day the Treasury announced its buybacks, Treasury yields fell, as did the dollar, and bitcoin blasted through that upper level of $67,000.

The Treasury’s actions negatively affected the money investors could make on U.S. bonds and the dollar, and boosted the value of bitcoin. That meant that many investors who had shorted bitcoin, or bet that its price would remain subdued, were forced to close their positions as bitcoin surged. Closing those bearish positions required buying back the digital asset, adding even more upward pressure to bitcoin’s price.

By Friday, more than $4 billion in bearish crypto positions had been liquidated during the rally, according to CoinGlass, which tracks cryptocurrency derivatives markets.

And because bitcoin was already rising, those forced purchases added fuel to the rally, potentially triggering still more liquidations as prices climbed.

TOKYO — A magnitude 5.9 earthquake struck eastern Japan early Sunday, shaking the greater Tokyo area and injuring at least five people, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, though officials said more injuries were still being assessed as the day continued.

The quake struck at approximately 2 a.m. local time, with its epicenter located in southern Ibaraki Prefecture, northeast of Tokyo, at a depth of roughly 70 kilometers, or about 42 miles, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. The agency reported a preliminary magnitude of 5.9, while the U.S. Geological Survey recorded the quake at magnitude 5.8. Officials confirmed there was no danger of a tsunami.

Shaking reached an intensity of lower 5 on Japan’s seven-level shindo seismic intensity scale in Tokyo’s Adachi Ward, as well as in Ibaraki, Saitama and Chiba prefectures, according to The Japan Times. Level 4 shaking was recorded in other parts of Tokyo and in Tochigi, Gunma and Kanagawa prefectures. According to the Meteorological Agency, shaking at the lower-5 intensity level can cause objects to fall from shelves and prompt people to grab onto something for support. In some areas, the tremors lasted up to a minute, with residents receiving earthquake early warning alerts on their mobile phones shortly before the shaking began.

The quake also produced what seismologists refer to as long-period ground motion, a slower, more prolonged form of shaking that can cause high-rise buildings to sway significantly and, at higher intensities, make it difficult for people to remain standing. According to NHK, Level 2 long-period ground motion was observed in the city of Kawaguchi in Saitama Prefecture, the city of Urayasu in Chiba Prefecture, and in Tokyo’s Koto and Edogawa wards.

At least five people were injured across Ibaraki, Chiba and Saitama prefectures, according to officials cited by the Korea Times, with authorities continuing to investigate reports of additional injuries as Sunday progressed. The quake caused an underground water pipe to rupture in Tokyo’s eastern Koto ward, and roughly 460 homes in Tokyo lost power, though electricity service was restored later Sunday morning.

Transportation across the region faced significant disruption in the aftermath of the quake. Express trains serving Tokyo and Narita Airport, along with various local train lines in northeastern Japan, were delayed or suspended following the earthquake. Shinkansen bullet train service, however, continued to operate normally throughout the region, reflecting the strict seismic safety protocols built into Japan’s high-speed rail network.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said authorities were actively assessing the extent of the damage caused by the earthquake, according to reporting from News On Japan. A liaison office was established at the Crisis Management Center within the prime minister’s office to coordinate the government’s response and monitor developments as officials continued evaluating the earthquake’s broader impact across the affected region.

The Japan Meteorological Agency urged residents in areas that experienced strong shaking to remain alert to the possibility of another earthquake of similar magnitude occurring within the coming week, according to The Japan Times, a standard precautionary advisory the agency typically issues following moderate-to-strong seismic events given the increased likelihood of aftershocks during the days immediately following a significant quake.

Sunday’s earthquake struck an area of Japan that is particularly prone to frequent seismic activity. According to the Korea Times, southern Ibaraki Prefecture, where the quake originated, is known for regular seismic events given its location along a complex convergence of tectonic plates beneath the greater Tokyo region.

The magnitude and characteristics of Sunday’s earthquake bear notable similarities to a previous significant quake that struck the same general region in October 2021. That earthquake, also measuring magnitude 5.9, was centered in neighboring Chiba Prefecture at a depth of between 62 and 75 kilometers, depending on the measuring agency, and was at the time described as the strongest earthquake to strike the Tokyo area since the catastrophic 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. The 2021 quake injured at least 51 people, according to Wikipedia’s record of the event, and registered a maximum intensity of Shindo 5+, slightly stronger than Sunday’s recorded intensity of lower 5.

Sunday’s earthquake arrived amid a broader stretch of significant news events in Japan. According to News On Japan, the quake struck as two typhoons were separately approaching Okinawa in quick succession, with one storm already affecting the Sakishima Islands with heavy rain and strong winds, while a second, more powerful typhoon continued approaching the region. The earthquake also came just two days after Japan carried out its first execution under the Takaichi administration, when 58-year-old death row inmate Sunao Takami was executed on Aug. 21 for a 2009 arson attack on an Osaka pachinko parlor that killed five people and injured 10 others.

Japan remains one of the most seismically active regions in the world, accounting for roughly 20% of all earthquakes worldwide measuring magnitude 6 or greater, according to prior reporting on the country’s earthquake frequency. The country has invested heavily in earthquake-resistant building codes, early warning systems and public education campaigns in the decades since the devastating 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, infrastructure that experts credit with helping limit casualties and structural damage during moderate earthquakes such as Sunday’s event, even as officials continue closely monitoring the region for potential aftershocks in the days ahead.

As cleanup and damage assessment efforts continue across the affected prefectures, officials have not indicated a specific timeline for when the full scope of injuries, infrastructure damage and service disruptions tied to Sunday’s earthquake will be finalized. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s continued advisory regarding the potential for further seismic activity in the coming week is expected to keep residents across the greater Tokyo region on heightened alert as authorities work to confirm the earthquake’s complete impact.

Gold and silver can both have a role in an investor’s portfolio, but they serve different purposes. Tata Mutual Fund in a note on precious metals said that outlook remains bullish on both precious metals over the medium to long term, while favouring a higher allocation to gold due to its defensive nature and relatively lower volatility.

In this note, the fund house said that a 70:30 allocation between gold and silver may be considered as a broad strategic framework for investors looking to diversify their precious metals exposure as this approach gives a higher weight to gold because of its relatively stable and defensive characteristics, while using silver to capture the metal’s longer-term growth potential.

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“For investors seeking diversified exposure to precious metals, we prefer a strategic allocation with a higher weight to gold, given its stability and defensive characteristics, complemented by silver’s long-term growth potential. A 70:30 allocation between gold and silver may be considered as a broad strategic framework,” said Tata Mutual Fund.

In recent weeks, gold prices witnessed a recovery supported by softer US economic data and easing bond yields. In the near term, expectations around US interest rates, movements in the dollar and bond yields could continue to influence prices.

The broader investment case for gold is supported by structural factors such as continued central bank purchases, sustained investment demand and the need for portfolio diversification. Gold also continues to serve as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and currency debasement risks. Investors could therefore consider periods of weakness to gradually build long-term exposure rather than trying to time the market.
Central bank buying has become an especially important support for the yellow metal. According to the World Gold Council data cited in the report, official-sector gold purchases rose to 289 tonnes in the second quarter, the strongest second-quarter buying on record. Total purchases in the first half of 2026 stood at 345 tonnes.SilverSilver has a different investment profile. Unlike gold, which is primarily viewed as a defensive asset, silver has a significant industrial demand component. Its long-term prospects are linked to applications in electronics, AI-related hardware, renewable energy infrastructure and solar technology.

The report notes that silver’s industrial demand exposure could result in greater volatility when global growth slows or interest-rate risks rise. Moderation in solar installations and easing supply tightness have also reduced some near-term demand catalysts. As a result, investors may consider a staggered approach to silver with a medium-to-long-term investment horizon.

Despite these near-term concerns, the longer-term supply-demand picture remains supportive. The report expects 2026 to mark the sixth consecutive year of a silver deficit, with demand continuing to exceed available supply. Industrial applications account for the majority of silver consumption, and industrial demand has steadily increased between 2021 and 2024.

What happened in July?Geopolitical uncertainty remains an important factor for precious metals. The report highlights renewed US-Iran tensions and disruptions to Red Sea shipping routes as key market developments during July. These events pushed oil prices higher and raised concerns about inflation.

At the same time, a strong US dollar remained a headwind for both gold and silver, as investors were attracted towards higher-yielding assets. The gold market was also influenced by a Federal Reserve that remained focused on inflation, while continued central bank purchases and strong physical demand from China provided underlying support.

Gold’s defensive appeal could remain relevant as geopolitical risks persist. The report notes that rising geopolitical tensions reinforce gold’s safe-haven characteristics. It also highlights growing US debt levels and the possibility that policymakers may have limited room to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period, which could support gold over time.

Silver’s supply constraints remain a long-term supportSilver’s investment case is also supported by developments on the supply side. China has a significant role in the global silver supply chain, accounting for about 11% of global reserves and controlling an estimated 60% to 70% of refining capacity, according to the report.

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The report suggests that efforts by China to tighten control over silver supply chains and prioritise domestic availability could create constraints in global markets. Combined with a persistent supply deficit and rising industrial demand, these factors support a constructive long-term outlook for silver, despite the possibility of sharp price fluctuations in the near term.

Gold currently has the edge over silverRecent market performance also highlights the different characteristics of the two metals. Domestic gold prices outperformed international gold during the year, supported by rupee depreciation and higher import duties. Indian gold prices were up about 6% year-to-date even as international gold prices declined.

Silver, meanwhile, underperformed gold as its industrial-demand exposure made it more vulnerable to war-driven cost pressures and interest-rate risks. The gold-silver ratio also increased from around 51 in May to 70, reflecting a stronger market preference for gold.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)