Russell Investments is a leading global investment solutions partner providing a wide range of investment capabilities to institutional investors, financial intermediaries, and individual investors around the world. Since 1936, Russell Investments has been building a legacy of continuous innovation to deliver exceptional value to clients, working every day to improve people’s financial security. The firm has US$331 billion in assets under management (as of 12/31/2024) for clients in 30 countries. Headquartered in Seattle, Washington, Russell Investments has offices in 17 cities around the world.

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Alexander Blostein – Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
Steven Chubak – Wolfe Research, LLC
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Benjamin Budish – Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
David Smith – Truist Securities, Inc., Research Division
Devin Ryan – Citizens JMP Securities, LLC, Research Division
Michael Cyprys – Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Charles John Bendit – Rothschild & Co Redburn, Research Division
Michael Brown – UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Kenneth Worthington – JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Christopher Allen – Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division
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Ritwik Roy – Jefferies LLC, Research Division
Brian Bedell – Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
Jacquelyne Cavanaugh – Putnam Investment Management, LLC

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In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin slipped 2% and Ethereum fell 1% to trade at $2,217 mark. Among the major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana, Tron, Dogecoin, Hyperliquid, and Cardano slipped up to 8%. The global crypto market capitalisation edged down 2% to $2.63 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Also Read | Quant Mid Cap Fund exits Lenskart Solutions and 2 other stocks, adds SAIL in April

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange said that Bitcoin’s latest pullback appears to be part of a broader macro-led risk-off move. Technically, Bitcoin has again failed to build acceptance above the $82,000–$82,500 resistance band, which remains the key ceiling for momentum traders.

Sehgal also said that as long as Bitcoin holds this region, the market can still treat the move as consolidation after a recovery; however, a clean break below $78,500 may expose the 200-EMA region near $77,800 and overall, crypto markets need confirmation from ETF flows, macro liquidity, yields and on-chain holder behaviour before the next directional trend becomes clearer.

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According to the data by CoinMarketCap, in the past week, Bitcoin fell 2% whereas Ethereum fell 4%. Among the major altcoins, XRP, Solana, Tron, Hyperliquid and Cardano went down up to 7% whereas BNB was up 2%.
WazirX Market Desk said that Bitcoin traded mostly around the $79,000-$81,000 range this week, with sentiment staying constructive despite short-term volatility and RSI readings remained largely in the mid-50s to low-60s, indicating steady demand, while Ethereum held firm near $2,250-$2,345 with longer-term signals staying supportive.
Also Read | Explained: What is US Senate’s CLARITY Act and why does it matter for crypto investors?

Institutional activity continued to support confidence, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing strong inflows, regulatory optimism also improved after the U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the Clarity Act, WazirX Market Desk further said.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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SYDNEY — Australian investors hunting for opportunities in the ASX 200 this year are being urged to focus on a mix of resource giants, resilient banks, healthcare leaders and technology plays as the index eyes fresh records amid recovering commodity prices, expected interest rate relief and steady economic growth.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has shown resilience in 2026 despite global headwinds, supported by strong iron ore and copper demand from China and domestic policy measures aimed at easing cost-of-living pressures. Analysts forecast the index could test 9,000 points by year-end, driven by improving corporate earnings and attractive dividend yields that remain competitive globally.

Here are 10 standout ASX 200 stocks recommended by strategists for 2026, chosen for their growth potential, income reliability and defensive qualities in an uncertain environment.

1. BHP Group (BHP)

The mining behemoth remains a cornerstone pick. Strong iron ore and copper prices, coupled with its diversified portfolio, position BHP for robust cash flows. Analysts highlight its exposure to the green energy transition through copper and nickel, with attractive dividend yields expected to continue.

2. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

Australia’s largest bank benefits from a stabilising housing market and potential rate cuts later in the year. Solid net interest margins and wealth management growth make it a reliable income generator with defensive qualities.

3. Wesfarmers (WES)

The diversified conglomerate, home to Bunnings and Kmart, offers resilience through everyday consumer staples. Its industrial and chemical divisions provide additional earnings diversity in a shifting economy.

4. CSL Limited (CSL)

The biotechnology leader continues expanding globally with strong demand for plasma products and vaccines. Its pipeline of innovative treatments supports long-term growth, making it a favourite among growth-oriented investors.

5. Macquarie Group (MQG)

The investment bank’s global infrastructure and commodities focus aligns well with 2026 themes. Strong performance in green energy and resources banking should drive earnings, while its annuity-style businesses provide stability.

6. Rio Tinto (RIO)

Another mining major with significant iron ore exposure. Rio’s operational efficiency and commitment to low-carbon initiatives position it favourably as global decarbonisation accelerates.

7. Telstra (TLS)

The telecom giant offers defensive income through its reliable dividends and 5G rollout. Expanding into data and digital services provides growth avenues beyond traditional mobile revenue.

8. NEXTDC (NXT)

The data centre operator is well-placed for the AI boom. Surging demand for computing power from hyperscalers and local enterprises supports strong revenue growth projections for the coming years.

9. Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

The gaming and entertainment company benefits from resilient consumer spending on experiences. Its global portfolio and digital transformation efforts make it a consistent performer.

10. Woodside Energy (WDS)

The energy producer offers exposure to LNG demand in Asia. While transitioning toward renewables, its conventional assets provide strong near-term cash flows and attractive yields.

Why These Stocks Stand Out in 2026

These selections balance cyclical strength with defensive qualities. Mining names like BHP and Rio Tinto capitalise on commodity tailwinds, while banks and Telstra provide income stability. Healthcare and technology plays such as CSL and NEXTDC tap into structural growth themes including an ageing population and digital transformation.

Valuations across the ASX 200 remain reasonable compared to global peers, with many stocks trading on forward price-to-earnings multiples below long-term averages. Dividend yields averaging around 4 percent add appeal for income-focused investors in a still uncertain global environment.

Risks Investors Should Consider

Commodity price volatility remains a key risk for resource stocks, while banks face margin pressure if rate cuts are delayed. Geopolitical tensions, including developments in the Middle East, could influence energy prices and inflation. Domestic factors such as housing affordability and consumer spending will also shape performance.

Analysts recommend diversification and a long-term horizon. While individual stocks may face short-term headwinds, the selected names have strong fundamentals and management teams capable of navigating challenges.

Market Outlook for the Year Ahead

Economists forecast moderate Australian GDP growth supported by lower interest rates and government spending. The RBA is expected to ease policy gradually, providing relief for rate-sensitive sectors. Corporate earnings are projected to grow mid-single digits, with resources and financials leading the way.

The ASX 200’s performance will hinge on global risk appetite, particularly U.S.-China relations and commodity demand from Asia. Positive developments in those areas could drive the index toward new highs.

For retail investors, exchange-traded funds tracking the ASX 200 offer broad exposure, while individual names suit those willing to conduct deeper research. Professional advice is recommended, as past performance does not guarantee future results.

The 2026 investment landscape offers compelling opportunities for those positioned across quality ASX 200 companies. Whether seeking growth, income or stability, the selected stocks represent a cross-section of Australia’s economic strengths and structural tailwinds. As always, thorough due diligence and a disciplined approach remain essential for success in equity markets.

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump announced Thursday that U.S. and Nigerian special forces conducted a successful joint operation that killed a senior ISIS commander in West Africa, describing the raid as a significant blow to the terrorist organization’s operations in the region.

The operation, which took place in the dense forests of northeastern Nigeria, targeted Abu Musab al-Barnawi, a high-ranking leader of the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), an ISIS affiliate responsible for numerous attacks across the Sahel region. Trump, speaking from the White House, called the mission “a tremendous success” and praised the coordination between American and Nigerian troops.

“We just took out a very big leader of ISIS. This is a major win for the United States, for Nigeria, and for the world,” Trump said. “Our military is the strongest and most powerful anywhere, and we will continue to hunt down these terrorists wherever they hide.”

U.S. defense officials confirmed that the raid was carried out by a joint task force involving elite U.S. special operations units and Nigerian military forces. The operation was supported by intelligence from multiple agencies, including the CIA and Nigerian security services. No U.S. personnel were injured, according to preliminary reports.

Details of the Operation

The strike occurred in Borno State, a longtime stronghold for Islamist militants. Intelligence indicated al-Barnawi was meeting with other commanders to plan attacks on civilian targets and Nigerian military outposts. U.S. drones provided real-time surveillance as ground forces moved in under cover of darkness.

According to a senior U.S. defense official who spoke on condition of anonymity, the operation lasted less than 45 minutes. Al-Barnawi was killed in the initial exchange of fire, along with several of his bodyguards. A small number of documents and electronic devices were recovered from the site for further analysis.

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu welcomed the success of the mission in a statement released by his office. “This joint operation demonstrates the strength of our partnership with the United States in the fight against terrorism,” Tinubu said. “We will continue to work together to secure our borders and protect our citizens.”

ISIS West Africa Province Context

ISWAP has become one of the most dangerous ISIS affiliates in Africa, carrying out frequent attacks on military bases, villages and infrastructure in Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon. The group has exploited regional instability, poverty and weak governance to recruit fighters and expand its influence.

Al-Barnawi, sometimes referred to as Abu Abdullah, was considered a key operational planner and a successor figure to earlier ISWAP leaders. His death is expected to disrupt the group’s command structure, at least in the short term, though experts caution that ISIS affiliates have shown resilience in replacing fallen commanders.

U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) has increased its support for regional partners in recent years, providing training, intelligence and occasional direct action against terrorist targets. Thursday’s operation fits into a broader strategy of working “by, with and through” local forces while limiting the U.S. footprint on the ground.

Trump’s National Security Approach

The announcement aligns with Trump’s long-standing emphasis on aggressive counterterrorism operations and partnerships with allies willing to combat extremism. During his first term, Trump authorized several high-profile raids against ISIS leaders, including the operation that killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Syria.

White House officials framed the Nigeria strike as evidence that the current administration is delivering on promises to keep Americans safe and pressure terrorist networks globally. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz called the mission “a textbook example of effective international cooperation.”

Democrats offered measured praise for the operation’s success while questioning the broader strategy. Some lawmakers called for greater transparency regarding U.S. military involvement in Africa and potential risks to American personnel.

Reactions and Global Implications

The news was welcomed by regional governments battling Islamist insurgencies. Chad, Niger and Cameroon, which have all suffered ISWAP attacks, expressed support for continued U.S. engagement in the fight.

Counterterrorism experts noted that while removing a senior figure like al-Barnawi is a tactical victory, the underlying conditions that fuel extremism — poverty, corruption and ethnic tensions — remain largely unaddressed. Sustainable progress will require not only military pressure but also governance reforms and economic development.

Social media reaction was swift and largely positive in the United States, with many users praising the operation and Trump’s quick announcement. The story quickly went viral, with hashtags like #ISISLeaderDown and #USNigeriaStrike trending throughout the day.

Ongoing Threats in the Sahel

Despite the success, security analysts warn that ISIS affiliates in Africa continue to pose serious threats. The group has expanded its operations in the Sahel, exploiting coups and political instability in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Recent attacks have targeted civilians, mining operations and international peacekeepers.

U.S. officials say operations like Thursday’s are part of a sustained campaign to degrade terrorist capabilities rather than a one-off event. AFRICOM conducts hundreds of training exercises and intelligence-sharing missions annually with African partners.

The death of al-Barnawi may lead to internal power struggles within ISWAP, potentially creating opportunities for further strikes. However, it could also trigger retaliatory attacks as the group seeks to demonstrate continued strength.

Looking Ahead

President Trump is expected to provide more details about the operation in the coming days. Pentagon officials said they are continuing to assess the intelligence recovered from the site and monitoring ISWAP for signs of reorganization.

For the families of victims of ISWAP violence across West Africa, the news brings a measure of justice, though the fight against the group is far from over. Nigerian authorities have increased security around vulnerable communities in the northeast following the raid.

The successful operation highlights the value of international partnerships in counterterrorism. As threats evolve and spread across borders, coordinated action between the United States and African nations will remain essential in the ongoing battle against ISIS and its affiliates.

Thursday’s strike serves as a reminder of both the progress being made and the persistent dangers that remain. While one senior commander has been removed, the ideology and networks that sustain such groups continue to challenge regional and global security. The United States and its partners have signaled they will maintain pressure until the threat is decisively diminished.

It says the market will go up this week.

It does.

The following Monday, another letter arrives. This time, I say the market will fall.

It does.

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Then it happens again. And again. Eight weeks in a row. Eight market calls. Each one perfect.
By now, you would be tempted to conclude that I possess either rare market insight or divine intervention. You may even consider investing in my fund.You should not. At least, not merely on this basis.

I could have done this with no forecasting skill at all.

Here is how. I begin with one million people. To half of them, I send a letter saying the market will rise. To the other half, I say it will fall. At the end of the week, whichever group received the wrong prediction never hears from me again. The group that received the right prediction becomes my new universe. I split them again. Half get a bullish prediction, half get a bearish one.

After eight weeks, I am left with 7,812 people who have received eight perfect market calls in a row. You happen to be one of them.

While it looks like genius, it was only arithmetic.

That is survivorship bias. The outcome looks extraordinary because we only see the survivors. We do not see the much larger graveyard of failed predictions that made the miracle possible.

The same bias often creeps into how we think about equities.

All of us know someone who made serious money in a stock that went up 10x, 50x, perhaps even 100x. We see investors on television who built reputations by finding stocks that did not merely compound, but exploded. Over time, the lesson appears obvious: to generate decent portfolio returns, one must find the next multi-bagger.

It is a seductive belief. It is also an incomplete one.

To test it, we looked at stock price data since 2000. We divided the market into two broad buckets: the top 250 companies by market capitalization, which we classify as large and midcap, and the next 500 companies, which we classify as smallcaps. Going below the top 750 was not feasible in the early 2000s and remains difficult even today, given liquidity constraints.

For every monthly five-year window since 2000, we calculated the proportion of smallcap stocks that went up more than 5x over the following five years, or in other words, “5x in 5Y”.

We then looked backward. For each starting month, we calculated the proportion of stocks that had fallen more than 50% in the preceding five years. The question was simple: if a large part of the market has already been badly bruised, what is the subsequent probability of finding stocks that go up 5x?

The answer is intuitive, but important.

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In the early 2000s, Indian equity markets were still relatively nascent. Nearly half the listed small-cap universe went up 5x over five years. Put differently, finding a five-bagger then was almost as common as calling heads or tails correctly on a coin toss.

That period left a deep imprint on many investors. A number of today’s market veterans generated their first meaningful wealth during that phase. For them, the multi-bagger hunt was not mythology. It was lived experience.

The post-COVID period created a similar, though less extreme, imprint for a newer generation. Given that 81% of active demat accounts today have been opened only since COVID, many investors entered markets during a period when finding a 5x stock was as frequent as roughly one in three. For them too, the experience was real. But the extrapolation may not be.

Because outside these exceptional windows, the odds were far less generous.

The probability of finding multi-baggers rises dramatically when the starting point is depressed — when a high proportion of stocks have already corrected sharply in the previous cycle. In other words, multi-baggers are not merely born from brilliance. They are often born from a low base.

This is where survivorship bias becomes dangerous.

We remember the stock that went up 50x. We forget the conditions that made it possible. We remember the investor who found it. We forget the many who bought similar-looking names and did not survive the drawdown. We celebrate the winner, but ignore the starting universe.

The same applies at the portfolio level.

A stock going up 5x is exciting. But a portfolio is not one stock. To examine this, we ran a bootstrap simulation of random 30-stock portfolios across 100,000 runs. The results were revealing. The probability of building an entire portfolio that went up 5x between February 2020 and September 2024 was c.40%. That is strikingly high. But the probability of losing half the portfolio value by March 2026 was also 32%.

In other words, the same market structure that made spectacular gains possible also made brutal drawdowns probable.

That is the part often left out of the multi-bagger story.

Over the long term, the picture becomes even more sobering. The 10-year average rolling return of the BSE Large Cap Index is 12.1%. The corresponding number for the BSE Small Cap Index is 13.2%. Given that multi-baggers are largely found within small caps, this difference is not large enough to support the belief that merely hunting in the multi-bagger pond guarantees superior long-term outcomes.

The lesson is not that multi-baggers do not matter. They do. A few exceptional winners can transform outcomes. The lesson is that the probability of finding them is not constant. It changes with the cycle, the starting valuation, the prior drawdown, liquidity, flows and sentiment.

There are therefore two ways to approach the market.

The first is to keep hunting for the next big thing. It is exciting. It provides the thrill of discovery. It offers the possibility of finding that rare gem that makes the entire exercise worthwhile. But it also comes with sharp drawdowns, false starts, crowded trades, and many instances where the cup comes very close to the lip before slipping away.

For some investors, that is the cost of doing business.

Of course, every rule has exceptions. There will be investors who can tilt the odds meaningfully in their favor, through skill, process, temperament, or sometimes luck. They may produce outcomes far superior to any randomized simulation. But judging by auditable performance data across the industry, such investors are either in very slim company or are not managing public money.

The second approach is less glamorous, but perhaps more useful: know when the odds are in your favor.

There are times when looking for multi-baggers is a high-probability exercise. These are usually periods of deep pessimism, widespread drawdowns, poor liquidity, exhausted sellers and low expectations. There are other times when the multi-bagger hunt becomes less an investment process and more a narrative chase.

The difference matters.

Because in markets, stories sell better than statistics. But over time, statistics decide which stories survive.

( The author is Co-Founder & Director, Buoyant Capital)