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AXT Inc Stock Soars 30% to $81.78 on AI Hype but Faces Analyst Warnings to Sell in 2026

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NEW YORK — AXT Inc. shares exploded higher Thursday, surging nearly 30% to close at $81.78 after a volatile session that saw the stock swing from $59.30 to an intraday high of $82.19, as momentum traders piled into the compound semiconductor maker amid broader excitement over artificial intelligence infrastructure demand.

AXT Inc
AXT Inc Stock Soars 30% to $81.78 on AI Hype but Faces Analyst Warnings to Sell in 2026

The dramatic one-day gain on April 16, 2026, came on heavy volume exceeding 16.7 million shares, more than 10 times the average, pushing the company’s market capitalization well above $3 billion despite trailing 12-month revenues of roughly $88 million and ongoing net losses. The rally extended a stunning run that has seen the stock climb from around $1 in early 2025 to current levels, delivering returns exceeding 2,800% for early holders.

Yet the surge has left many Wall Street analysts shaking their heads. Consensus price targets from five to 11 covering analysts hover between $14.75 and $35.60, implying potential downside of 55% to 82% from Thursday’s close. Ratings remain mixed, with a lean toward “Hold” overall — two Buy, two Hold and one Sell in recent tallies — even as some longer-term forecasts see revenue growth ahead.

AXT, based in Fremont, California, specializes in indium phosphide (InP), gallium arsenide (GaAs) and germanium substrates used in high-speed optical components, data center connectivity, wireless communications and other advanced applications. Indium phosphide has emerged as a critical material for optical interconnects that help alleviate bandwidth bottlenecks in AI training clusters and hyperscale data centers.

Management has highlighted strong underlying demand, particularly for InP wafers tied to the AI build-out. In comments accompanying delayed fourth-quarter 2025 results, Chief Executive Morris Young noted progress on export permits from China and expressed confidence in sequential revenue growth for the first quarter of 2026. The company plans to more than double its InP production capacity by the end of 2026, with potential for another doubling in 2027 to meet projected order growth.

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First-quarter 2026 earnings are scheduled for release after the market close on April 30, with analysts expecting revenue around $26 million and a loss per share of about $0.05. Full-year 2026 revenue estimates range from roughly $100 million to $125 million in some models, reflecting optimism about recovering shipments and capacity expansion, though earlier guidance had been tempered by export control delays in late 2025.

The bullish case rests on AXT’s positioning in a multi-year growth cycle for optical communications. As AI models scale, the need for faster, more efficient data movement between servers drives demand for InP-based lasers and detectors. Company executives have pointed to broadening customer relationships, including with tier-one optical players previously underserved, and a robust backlog once permitting issues ease.

Yet skeptics argue the stock’s valuation has detached from fundamentals. At current levels, AXT trades at elevated multiples — roughly 20-30 times forward sales in some calculations — while still posting losses. Trailing earnings remain negative, and the company carried a net loss of $21.3 million on $88.3 million in revenue for fiscal 2025. Insider selling totaling millions of dollars in recent months has added to concerns about whether executives view the run-up as a selling opportunity.

Geopolitical risks loom large. A significant portion of AXT’s manufacturing occurs in China, subjecting indium phosphide shipments to export license approvals by Chinese authorities. Delays in permits contributed to a fourth-quarter 2025 revenue miss, and any future tightening of U.S.-China technology restrictions or retaliatory measures could disrupt supply chains or customer orders.

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Analysts at firms like B. Riley have expressed incremental caution on the InP supply chain, while others note that competitors or alternative technologies could eventually ease the current bottleneck. Some models peg fair value closer to $28, suggesting the stock is overvalued by more than 50% even if growth materializes.

Technical analysts observe that the rapid ascent has left the shares extremely extended. The stock has broken out dramatically but now sits well above most moving averages, raising the risk of a sharp pullback if momentum fades or if the upcoming earnings disappoint. Short interest and options activity reflect heightened speculation, with traders betting on continued volatility.

For investors considering a position in 2026, the debate centers on timing and risk tolerance. Bulls point to the transformative potential of AI-driven demand and AXT’s capacity ramp as reasons to hold or add on dips, arguing that current prices bake in optimistic scenarios for 2027 and beyond when revenue could approach or exceed $200 million in some projections. Capacity expansion, if executed smoothly, could support higher margins and eventual profitability.

Bears counter that the market has gotten ahead of itself. With analyst targets clustered far below current trading levels and persistent losses, the risk-reward skews negative for new buyers at these prices. Those who rode the rally from single digits may consider taking profits, especially ahead of earnings that could serve as a reality check on near-term execution.

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Broader semiconductor sector sentiment remains supportive, with AI spending by hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google and Amazon continuing to fuel optimism. However, AXT’s small size, customer concentration risks and exposure to policy shifts differentiate it from larger, more diversified chip players.

Longer-term forecasts vary widely. Some optimistic models see the stock reaching $85 or higher within 12 months under ideal conditions, while more conservative estimates warn of a return toward the $20-$30 range if growth disappoints or macro headwinds intensify. Revenue visibility improves in the second half of 2026 if capacity comes online and permits flow more freely, but investors should prepare for quarterly lumpiness.

Dividend investors will find little appeal, as AXT does not currently pay one and focuses resources on growth and operations. The balance sheet includes some cash but also reflects investments in expansion.

Market participants should monitor upcoming developments closely: the April 30 earnings report and conference call, any updates on China export permits, progress on capacity additions, and shifts in AI capital expenditure plans by big tech. Broader trade tensions or interest rate moves could also sway sentiment.

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In summary, AXT Inc. offers exposure to a compelling secular theme in AI infrastructure but carries substantial valuation, execution and geopolitical risks. The explosive move to $81.78 in April 2026 has rewarded patient holders yet left new entrants facing a high bar for justification. Conservative investors may prefer to wait for a pullback or clearer evidence of sustained profitability, while aggressive growth-oriented traders might view volatility as opportunity — albeit with tight risk management.

Whether the stock ultimately justifies its current premium will depend on AXT’s ability to convert hype into consistent revenue growth and positive earnings in the quarters ahead. For now, the market appears split between euphoria over AI tailwinds and skepticism about stretched fundamentals.

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Nuggets Star Healthy and Surging as Playoffs Begin vs Timberwolves

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Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets lost 20 to 25 pounds during the 2020 lockdown in Serbia.

DENVER — Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic enters the 2026 NBA playoffs fully healthy after navigating the first significant injury of his career earlier this season, a left knee hyperextension that sidelined him for 16 games in late December and January. The three-time MVP has shown no lingering effects from the knee issue or a minor right wrist concern managed at the end of the regular season, positioning him as the engine for a Nuggets team seeded third in the Western Conference and set to face the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round.

Jokic suffered the knee injury on Dec. 29, 2025, against the Miami Heat when teammate Spencer Jones inadvertently stepped on his foot, causing a hyperextension and bone bruise. Initial fears of a more serious ligament damage quickly eased after tests revealed intact structures. The Nuggets announced he would be reevaluated in four weeks, and he returned to action on Jan. 30 against the Los Angeles Clippers, posting 31 points and 12 rebounds in a victory. Since then, he has missed only one additional game, maintaining strong availability through the stretch run.

The Serbian big man finished the regular season averaging 27.8 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.9 assists over 64 games, becoming just the second player in NBA history to average a triple-double in consecutive seasons. His efficiency remained elite at around 57 percent from the field. The brief absence tested Denver’s depth, but the team went 10-6 without him, underscoring the supporting cast’s growth while highlighting Jokic’s irreplaceable impact.

In recent weeks, Jokic dealt with a right wrist issue listed as “injury management.” He sat out the April 11 game against the Oklahoma City Thunder but was questionable for the regular-season finale against the San Antonio Spurs on April 13. Coach David Adelman indicated the team would decide based on treatment and the need for Jokic to reach the league’s 65-game threshold for MVP and All-NBA eligibility. Reports suggested Denver prioritized playoff readiness over forcing minutes in a low-stakes contest.

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Jokic has repeatedly expressed a desire to play rather than rest excessively. Ahead of the playoffs, he told reporters he dislikes long breaks, preferring to build rhythm through games. “To be honest, I don’t like it. I just want to play,” he said regarding the several days off between the end of the regular season and Game 1. Teammates and coaches have praised his conditioning and basketball IQ, noting he looks sharp in practices leading into the postseason.

The knee scare in December marked a rare vulnerability for Jokic, who had previously enjoyed remarkable durability. He played at least 70 games in most seasons before the 2025-26 campaign. The hyperextension required careful load management upon his return, with the Nuggets monitoring minutes initially. By mid-February, he was back to logging heavy workloads, often exceeding 35 minutes per night while orchestrating Denver’s offense from the high post.

Denver’s medical staff took a conservative approach throughout, prioritizing long-term health over short-term awards contention. The 65-game rule for individual honors became a subplot, with Jokic ultimately qualifying thanks to his post-return availability. Other stars around the league faced similar eligibility challenges, sparking broader discussions about the rule’s fairness for players enduring unavoidable injuries.

As the Nuggets prepare for Minnesota, health across the roster remains a focal point. Several key contributors, including Jamal Murray (right shoulder impingement), Aaron Gordon (right hamstring) and Christian Braun (ankle/hip flexor), have dealt with their own issues and were limited or sidelined late in the season. Adelman has emphasized that the extra rest heading into the playoffs could benefit the banged-up group, though Jokic has pushed for quicker action.

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Jokic’s presence transforms Denver’s ceiling. His ability to read defenses, deliver precise passes and score efficiently in the paint or from mid-range makes the Nuggets a dangerous matchup for any opponent. In recent practices and scrimmages, he has looked dominant, according to insiders, with no visible hesitation from the earlier knee trauma. His rebounding and defensive positioning have also returned to All-Defensive levels.

The Timberwolves present a tough first-round test, featuring elite defenders and athletic wings capable of challenging Jokic physically. Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns (if healthy) could force Denver to adjust schemes, but Jokic’s historical success against similar front lines suggests he will thrive. He averaged strong numbers against Minnesota during the regular season, often exploiting mismatches with his passing.

Beyond the immediate series, Jokic’s recovery story reflects his professional approach. Known for his quiet work ethic and love of horses back home in Serbia, he has used downtime to stay mentally fresh. Teammates describe him as engaged on the bench during his absence, offering insights that helped younger players step up. Christian Braun and others have credited Jokic’s leadership for keeping the team connected.

Nuggets fans breathed a collective sigh of relief after the December diagnosis. Social media lit up with concern when video showed Jokic collapsing and grabbing his knee, but the four-week timeline proved accurate. His return sparked a surge in Denver’s performance, helping secure the third seed despite a competitive Western Conference.

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This postseason carries extra weight for Jokic and the franchise. After winning the title in 2023 and reaching the conference finals in subsequent years, Denver aims to make another deep run. Injuries to key pieces have tested resilience all season, but entering the playoffs relatively healthy — with Jokic at full strength — has renewed optimism in Ball Arena.

Analysts point to Jokic’s basketball genius as the ultimate mitigator for any minor physical setbacks. Even if the wrist or knee required occasional management, his court vision and decision-making remain unaffected. Advanced metrics show his on/off differential remains among the league’s highest, with Denver outscoring opponents by double digits when he plays.

Looking ahead, the organization continues investing in player health. Strength and conditioning programs tailored to big men like Jokic have helped prevent more serious issues common at the center position. His playing style — less reliant on explosive athleticism and more on positioning and skill — may also contribute to longevity.

As Game 1 against the Timberwolves approaches, the focus shifts from injury updates to execution. Jokic has downplayed personal concerns, instead discussing team preparation and matchups, including his respect for Anthony Edwards’ explosiveness. “We just need to go into Game 1 and play well,” he said in a recent press conference.

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The broader NBA landscape has watched Jokic’s situation closely. His ability to return from the knee hyperextension without apparent decline offers hope for other stars recovering from lower-body injuries. At 31, Jokic shows no signs of slowing, continuing to dominate as one of the league’s most unique talents.

Denver’s front office and coaching staff have balanced rest and readiness effectively in the final weeks. By limiting exposure in meaningless late-season games, they aim to preserve energy for the grind of the playoffs, where every possession matters.

For Nuggets supporters, the narrative has shifted from worry to anticipation. Clips of Jokic dominating in practice have circulated widely, fueling excitement for another “Joker” playoff run. His signature step-back jumpers, no-look passes and calming presence on the floor remain intact.

While minor wrist management drew attention late in April, all indications point to full clearance as the series begins. The Nuggets are treating the playoffs as a fresh start, with health on their side for the first time in months.

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Jokic’s journey this season — from the scary fall in Miami to triple-double dominance and now playoff readiness — embodies resilience. It reinforces why he has earned MVP consideration year after year, not just for stats but for elevating everyone around him.

As the 2026 postseason tips off, the basketball world will watch closely to see if a healthy Nikola Jokic can lead Denver back to championship contention. For now, the latest injury update is the best possible news: the Joker is back, healthy and ready to play.

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Crowds gather in Cameroon for biggest event of Pope Leo’s Africa tour

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Workspace shares dive 13% on profit warning and dividend reset

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Rupee touches one-week high on report of RBI plan to ease oil refiners’ dollar bids

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Rupee touches one-week high on report of RBI plan to ease oil refiners' dollar bids
The Indian rupee rose to a one-week high on Friday after a Reuters report said the central bank took steps to curb the impact of dollar buying by state-run oil refiners, which traders said supported the currency.

The rupee rose 0.5% to 92.7250 per dollar as of 10:50 a.m. IST, its ‌strongest level since ⁠April ⁠10.

The central bank has urged state-run oil refiners to tap a special credit line for foreign exchange needs while curbing spot dollar purchases, Reuters reported post market hours on Thursday.

The measure marks a fresh deployment of crisis era tools to support the rupee which has been battered by concerns over high energy prices and weak capital flows.

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A combination of regulatory measures ⁠by the ‌central bank – including caps on banks’ net open FX positions, curbs on banks offering corporates NDFs and the special facility ⁠for oil refiners – has helped boost the rupee about 2.5% from its record low hit in late March.


Along with earlier measures like tighter position limits and curbs on NDF, “this signals one clear message: the RBI is actively defending the rupee in a challenging environment,” said Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex.
Separately, Reuters also reported on Friday that Indian banks have halted gold ‌and silver imports amid a delay in government clearance. Meanwhile, global markets are keeping their eyes peeled for developments related to Iran war peace talks.

A 10-day ceasefire ⁠between Lebanon and Israel went into effect on Thursday and President Donald Trump said the next meeting between the United States and Iran may take place over the weekend.

Asian currencies were mostly range-bound while Brent Crude futures fell 1% to $98 per barrel.

“If diplomacy fails and optimism fades, USD could stay supported for longer, while recent Asian FX gains look more vulnerable amid still high energy prices,” MUFG said in a note.

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Nearly 160,000 uninsured cars seized on UK roads

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Nearly 160,000 uninsured cars seized on UK roads

Seizure numbers hit a 17-year high as an estimated 300,000 uninsured vehicles are driven each day.

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Portland Trail Blazers Star Targets Full Return for 2026-27 Season

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Damian Lillard #0 of the Portland Trail Blazers

PORTLAND, Ore. — Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard remains sidelined with a torn left Achilles tendon and is not expected to play in the 2025-26 postseason, including the team’s upcoming play-in tournament game against the Phoenix Suns. The 35-year-old nine-time All-Star is targeting a full return for the start of the 2026-27 NBA season after a deliberate, season-long rehabilitation process.

Damian Lillard #0 of the Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard #0 of the Portland Trail Blazers

Lillard suffered the injury in late April 2025 during Game 4 of the Milwaukee Bucks’ first-round playoff series against the Indiana Pacers. He underwent surgery in early May 2025. The Bucks waived him in the offseason using a stretch provision, clearing cap space while allowing Lillard to return home to the franchise that drafted him in 2012. Portland signed him knowing he would miss the entire 2025-26 campaign to prioritize long-term health.

As of mid-April 2026, more than 11 months after surgery, Lillard continues individualized rehab that includes on-court shooting and light basketball activities. Full-contact, high-speed play and competitive games remain off limits. The NBA’s official injury report lists him as out for “left Achilles tendon; injury management.” Blazers officials have consistently supported the cautious timeline, describing the current season as a bridge year focused on his recovery rather than any short-term contribution.

Achilles tendon ruptures rank among the most serious injuries for NBA players, particularly explosive guards who rely on quick first steps, lateral movement and repeated jumping. Recovery typically requires 10 to 12 months or more before an athlete can approach pre-injury form. At 35, Lillard and the organization opted against rushing the process. “I’m running my own race,” Lillard told reporters earlier this year when asked about his physical progress. “If I were 23, 24, 25, I probably would be more competitive about who is doing what, but I know where I am physically. I can feel it.”

Social media videos shared in recent weeks show Lillard moving fluidly, cutting, jumping and draining three-pointers in controlled workouts. In February, he participated in the NBA All-Star Weekend three-point contest — his first on-court appearance since the injury — and demonstrated that his elite shooting touch remains intact. The appearance served as a public sign of progress but did not alter the organization’s plan to keep him out for the full season.

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Lillard has emphasized patience throughout the process. He has described the early months as frustrating yet manageable with the right mindset. “It’s going well,” he said in a December interview. “I think it’s one of those injuries where you just have to take your time. The first few weeks to a couple of months can be frustrating because you’re so limited, but with patience, giving yourself grace, and doing what’s necessary to keep progressing, you eventually start to see the light at the end of the tunnel.”

The decision to sit out the entire 2025-26 season aligns with modern medical protocols for older athletes recovering from Achilles tears. While some players have returned in nine months, the Blazers and Lillard prioritized ensuring he enters the 2026 offseason with a complete training block. He has expressed confidence that he can return at or near his previous All-Star level when the 2026-27 season tips off in October. “I plan to return and be myself,” Lillard has stated, adding that he is “excited” about reuniting with Portland’s young core.

Without Lillard on the floor, the Blazers have leaned heavily on their developing roster. Guards such as Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe have logged increased minutes, while forward Deni Avdija earned his first All-Star nod this season. The team has remained competitive enough to reach the play-in tournament, validating the front office’s long-term vision. Lillard has stayed engaged off the court, attending games, team events and locker-room sessions. “I’m in the locker room with them, the team events, all of those things,” he said. “I’ve definitely kept connected to the team. I try not to just be the veteran guy … I do a lot of listening, and when guys have questions, I’ll share what I think.”

The Achilles injury capped a turbulent 12 months for Lillard. Earlier in the 2024-25 season he dealt with a deep vein thrombosis diagnosis in his right calf, an issue that required careful management. The playoff injury, followed by the Bucks’ decision to move on, tested his resilience. Yet Lillard has framed the year as one of growth. “Over the past year, I’ve faced a lot — dealing with a blood clot, tearing my Achilles, being waived, being away from my kids and family — but I kept my head down and pushed forward,” he reflected. “God has been faithful, and through His grace, we’ve made it here. Now, I move forward with my head held high, still in one piece, and I’m really excited about what’s ahead, especially being back home in Portland.”

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NBA history offers mixed lessons on Achilles recoveries for players of Lillard’s age and position. Kevin Durant returned to All-NBA form after his 2019 tear, but he was 30 at the time of injury. Guards such as DeMarcus Cousins faced longer struggles regaining quickness. Lillard’s case benefits from his elite shooting and basketball IQ, traits less dependent on raw explosiveness. Still, the organization has made clear that any return will come only when medical staff and Lillard himself confirm he can “play every year for the rest of my career as the best version of myself.”

Portland’s front office views the 2025-26 season as an investment. By granting Lillard the full calendar year, the Blazers position him to pair with a roster that has taken meaningful steps forward in his absence. Analysts note that a healthy Lillard next season could elevate a young, athletic group into a legitimate playoff contender in the Western Conference. Lillard has echoed that optimism, saying the team’s growth during his recovery makes him even more motivated. “Looking at our team’s growth, if I can come back right, we’ll have a great shot next season,” he said.

Fans in Portland have followed Lillard’s progress closely on social media. Clips of his workouts have gone viral, sparking renewed excitement for “Dame Time” in Rip City. The three-point contest appearance in February reminded supporters of the clutch performer who once led the Blazers to multiple playoff runs and earned a reputation as one of the league’s most loyal and skilled point guards.

Medical experts generally advise that full return to elite performance after an Achilles rupture can extend beyond the initial 10-to-12-month window, especially for athletes over 30. Strength training, blood-flow restriction therapy and gradual load management have become standard. Lillard’s regimen appears to follow these best practices. As of mid-April, he has not experienced setbacks publicly reported, and the Blazers continue to describe his outlook as positive.

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The broader context of Lillard’s career adds weight to the recovery narrative. Drafted ninth overall in 2012, he spent 11 seasons as the face of the Blazers franchise, leading it to the playoffs eight times and earning All-Star honors seven times while in Portland. His 2023 trade to Milwaukee paired him with two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo in a bid for a championship. Though the partnership produced strong regular-season results, postseason exits and the subsequent injury shifted the trajectory. Returning to Portland allowed Lillard to close his career where it began, mentoring the next generation while chasing unfinished business.

As the 2025-26 season winds toward its conclusion, the Blazers prepare for their play-in game without their veteran leader. Lillard will watch from the sidelines or the broadcast booth, continuing his rehab in the background. The organization has left the door technically open to an earlier return only if medical evaluations warrant it, but all current reporting points to a firm focus on 2026-27.

Lillard’s story this season has become one of resilience and strategic patience. At an age when many guards face declining athleticism, he has chosen the longer road to protect his legacy. If the plan holds, fans could see the familiar step-back three and “Dame Time” celebration again when the new season opens in October 2026. For now, the message from Portland is clear: the priority is not rushing back but ensuring Lillard returns as the player who has defined excellence for more than a decade.

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ASX runs out of steam despite hopes of US-Iran deal

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ASX runs out of steam despite hopes of US-Iran deal

Australia’s share market has crimped a three-week win streak despite market optimism the US-Iran conflict could be partially resolved in the near term.

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LM Ericsson B ADR earnings missed by $0.09, revenue fell short of estimates

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Rates Spark: Expectation Management

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Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) 2026 Q1 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (NASDAQ:ERIC) 2026-04-17

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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