After scaling a record high of around ₹393 per kg on the MCX during the first week of June, aluminium prices witnessed a healthy correction to nearly ₹330 per kg amid profit-booking and easing concerns over immediate supply disruptions. A similar price action has witnessed on the key global markets as well. However, the metal is once again showing signs of strength, with prices attempting to break through the important resistance zones.

The recent rebound has been supported by tightening global inventories, concerns over energy availability in key producing regions, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and expectations of robust demand from the power, transportation, renewable energy, and electric vehicle sectors. Additionally, China’s production constraints and growing global emphasis on electrification continue to reinforce the long-term bullish outlook for aluminium, a metal increasingly regarded as one of the most strategic industrial commodities alongside copper.

Factors Currently Supporting Aluminium Prices

Several factors have tilted market sentiment in favour of aluminium. The foremost among them is the growing expectation of a tighter global supply balance. There are estimation that the global aluminium market has moved from surplus conditions seen in previous years towards a marginal deficit as demand growth continues to outpace supply expansion. Electrification trends, including electric vehicles, solar installations, battery infrastructure, and grid modernization projects, are generating sustained demand growth across major economies. At the same time, aluminium smelting remains one of the most energy-intensive industrial activities, making production vulnerable to fluctuations in power costs and energy availability. China’s production restrictions and limited capacity additions elsewhere have further strengthened market fundamentals.

Impact of US-Iran Tensions

The recent escalation in tensions involving the US and Iran has emerged as a significant driver for aluminium prices. While Iran is not among the world’s largest aluminium exporters, any conflict affecting the Persian Gulf region raises concerns about the continuity of raw material shipments and finished metal exports. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. Disruptions to shipping routes can delay alumina supplies and increase freight and insurance costs, thereby affecting aluminium production economics.

Furthermore, gulf producers including Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE are major aluminium suppliers to international markets. Any prolonged geopolitical instability in the region could trigger a renewed supply squeeze and exert upward pressure on prices.

Global Supply-Demand Scenario

The global aluminium market is witnessing a gradual transition from comfortable supply conditions to tightening availability. China remains the world’s largest producer, accounting for nearly 60% of global output. Demand continues to be driven by transportation, construction, packaging, electrical infrastructure and renewable energy sectors. The rapid expansion of electric vehicle manufacturing and investments in power transmission infrastructure have emerged as the primary demand drivers. With inventories remaining relatively tight and new capacity additions lagging demand growth, the market is becoming increasingly sensitive to any supply disruptions.

China’s Dominant Role in the Market

China remains the single most important variable for aluminium prices. The country produces approximately 58-60% of global aluminium output and is also its largest consumer. However, Beijing’s production cap of around 45 million tonnes has prevented unrestricted expansion of smelting capacity. Environmental regulations, carbon-emission targets and energy consumption limits have restricted production growth in several provinces.

Despite weakness in the property sector, demand from automobiles, solar energy, power grids and energy storage projects has remained robust. As long as Chinese production growth remains constrained while domestic demand continues to expand, global aluminium prices are likely to remain well supported.

India’s Position and Deficit Concerns

India is among the world’s leading aluminium producers, with companies such as Hindalco and Vedanta playing important roles in the global market. While the country is not expected to face a severe aluminium shortage in the near term, domestic demand is rising rapidly. If global prices continue to rise and imports become costlier because of logistics disruptions, Indian consumers may face higher procurement costs. This could eventually increase production costs across various sectors. Although a sharp physical deficit is unlikely immediately, tighter market conditions could translate into higher prices for aluminium-intensive goods.

Price Outlook for the Rest of the Year

Looking ahead, the outlook remains constructive. The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, energy market volatility, constrained Chinese supply growth, and structurally rising demand from electrification trends continues to favour higher prices. For MCX aluminium, while intermittent corrections cannot be ruled out, the broader trend remains positive as long as supply-side risks persist. If Middle East tensions escalate further or energy prices witness another sharp spike, aluminium could witness a stronger-than-expected rally in the second half of the year. Conversely, a significant increase in Chinese production or a slowdown in global industrial demand may cap gains.

(The author is Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments Limited)

Apple shares fell nearly 10% on Friday after a disappointing forecast showed that the iPhone maker was struggling to secure enough components as the AI-driven data center boom strains global supply chains.

The drop, if sustained, would mark the stock’s worst day since the pandemic-driven selloff in March 2020. It would erase nearly $500 billion from Apple’s market capitalization and return the crown of the world’s most valuable company to AI chip giant Nvidia, days after reclaiming it.

Tim Cook, ‌widely hailed as ⁠a supply-chain ⁠genius, called the shortages “very significant” and said Apple had limited options to address them, speaking on his final earnings call as CEO before handing the reins to John Ternus in September and becoming executive chairman.

“If even at Apple’s scale they are saying they are out all supply chain flexibility, it’s really bad for everyone,” said Ben Bajarin, CEO of tech consultant Creative Strategies.

Big Tech has been scooping up advanced chip-making capacity and memory chips to power its AI data centers, sparking shortages and price increases that are expected to shrink both the personal ⁠computer and ‌smartphone markets this year.

Apple had cushioned some of the blow from surging memory costs by drawing on stockpiled inventory, but Cook said that the buffer was fading and shortages of processors ⁠were keeping it from meeting strong demand for iPhones and Macs.
Its forecast on Thursday for revenue growth of between 9% and 11% in the current quarter fell short of Wall Street’s roughly 12% estimate, and softer growth in its services business also overshadowed otherwise strong June-quarter results.

SERVICES WEAKNESS WORRIES INVESTORS

The services weakness worried investors as it came during a stretch of strong iPhone sales, which typically feed the business that takes a cut of App Store purchases and includes everything from Apple Music to Apple TV.
That slowdown could deepen if iPhone sales take a hit from a price increase that ‌many analysts expect during the launch of the new lineup, which typically happens in September.

“Apple’s leverage over the supply chain appears to be in question and it’s not clear that AI is serving as any measurable tailwind to ⁠products or services, with its future monetization impact still uncertain,” Morgan Stanley analysts said.

“In fact, one could argue App Store softness might even be a result of AI re-prioritizing customer time.”

Still, some analysts said that the iPhone has weathered price hikes before without denting demand significantly and that a recent U.S. leasing deal with Klarna that offers monthly plans for Apple’s devices could soften the blow.

At least four brokerages cut their targets for the company’s stock price, while three raised. That moved the median view to $330, which is $3 lower than the last closing price, according to LSEG data. The stock has risen 22.7% this year as of Thursday’s close.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh‘s emphatic declarations on Wednesday that inflation would be brought down without signaling a readiness to raise interest rates triggered a sharp selloff in bonds that may force a hard choice: defying President Donald Trump’s desire for easier monetary policy or battling a growing cadre of fellow U.S. central bankers determined to tighten it.

Complicating matters was Warsh’s hint that he may try to switch up the Fed’s yardstick for successfully containing inflation, for years defined as a 2% year-over-year rise in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. “That’s our number, we’re sticking with it,” Warsh said in a press conference after the end of a two-day policy meeting, before adding, “Who ‌knows, come after next January, ⁠what we might ⁠say about strategy. I suspect the task forces might have something to add.”

Warsh handpicked 15 outside experts in May to deliver recommendations by the end of 2026 on the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy, including its inflation framework. Warsh said on Wednesday he will check in with them in the next couple of weeks and may share any thoughts that are “ready for prime time” at the Fed’s global central bankers’ conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Past Fed chiefs have used that late-August meeting to prefigure what the central bank may do at its meetings in September. Warsh has so far stuck to his promise to provide no guidance on the Fed’s likely rate path. The combination of Warsh’s repeated assertions of the need to tame inflation with no action to move it toward the 2% target and a hint that the goalposts themselves may change helped send 30-year Treasury yields above 5.2% on Wednesday, a 19-year high. They extended their rise on Thursday.

“That’s almost seen in that building as the markets voting ‘no ⁠confidence’ on ‌the Fed and the Fed’s willingness and capacity to bring inflation down,” said Nathan Sheets, the global chief economist at Citigroup. “He highlighted a problem and gave no strategy for solving it other than, ‘I’m a hawk, trust me,’ and the markets wanted more than that,” said Sheets, who worked at the Fed for 18 years. “I think part of it is ⁠if you lean too far into future hikes, then he’s disappointing the White House. And it is a balancing act between Warsh the hawk, which he is, and trying to stay on sides relative to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.” Sheets said Warsh will need to make a choice by September.

THE BREWING STORM

Warsh’s colleagues are already calling for action. Three of the Fed’s 12 voting policymakers dissented on Wednesday against the decision to leave the central bank’s benchmark interest rate on hold in the 3.50%-3.75% range. On Friday they and any others at the table are free to have their say, and analysts expect a deluge of commentary, given what Sheets called the “absolute red flag” of rising long-term bond rates. “While Warsh may try to constrain the Fed’s official communications and substitute ‘talk’ for action while waiting for ‘task forces’ to return a verdict, the regional Fed presidents, and perhaps members of the Board (of Governors), are willing to discuss their views in the open and will be doing so over the next few days and weeks,” said Thierry Wizman, global FX & rates strategist at Macquarie Group. “We ‌expect them to do a lot of damage control, and to highlight how they, if not Warsh, are ready to tighten policy.” Before the Fed’s meeting this week, some policymakers including two of those who dissented on Wednesday – Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack – had signaled their discomfort with leaving rates unchanged despite rising inflation. Others who voted with Warsh on Wednesday to keep rates on hold, including ⁠Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook, have said they too may call for rate hikes if they don’t see improvement in inflation soon. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday that PCE inflation eased in June to 3.7% from 4.1% in May, and underlying core inflation rose 3.3% last month after advancing 3.4% in May. The slight improvement had been widely anticipated after the release of other inflation data earlier this month, and policymakers have said they are worried about renewed upward price pressures due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and surging investment in technology related to artificial intelligence. Business spending on equipment increased at a 15.2% pace in the second quarter, the BEA said in a separate report on Thursday, marking a second straight quarter of double-digit growth. Trump so far has refrained from attacking Warsh for not delivering lower rates, blaming the new Fed chief’s fellow board members instead. “Board members have put Warsh on notice they intend to push for a hike in September if inflation does not meaningfully ease over the summer,” Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, wrote in a note. “If Warsh is indeed a dove in hawk’s clothing, he will not have as much support on the board to hold rates steady again in the face of persistently high inflation.”

Summer lull? Don’t even think about it. There’s a multi-trillion dollar selloff in AI-linked equities taking place, devastating wildfires across Europe and the war in the Middle East continues to rage.

In Asia, India holds a crucial central bank meeting against a complex backdrop, while Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report comes as traders grow increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve may have to hike interest rates again.

1/AI-WATERING MOVES

The AI-driven bull run has gone from seemingly unstoppable to spectacularly volatile in a matter of weeks.

Investors are increasingly uneasy about profitability, competition and who’s paying ‌for it all. Unprecedented volatility ⁠in chipmakers ⁠and other AI-related stocks is the result. South Korea’s KOSPI, which jumped 18% on Friday after tumbling 40% over the previous six weeks, is the prime example.

Pressure is emerging elsewhere too. The cost of insuring against default by some AI hyperscalers has risen as debt levels climb, while earnings reports are triggering increasingly dramatic market reactions.

More turbulence may lie ahead. Elon Musk’s SpaceX reports its first results since its blockbuster June IPO. Since then, its market value has slumped by an eye-watering $1 trillion.

2/WAR WORRIES

Markets will remain focused on the Middle East, where a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced in mid-June now appears a distant memory and oil prices have climbed back towards $90 a barrel.
A drone strike on two U.S.-owned gas tankers in Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta this week has opened a potential new front in the five-month conflict, raising concerns that traffic through the Suez ⁠Canal, one of ‌the world’s most important trade routes, could come under threat. In another first, Saudi Arabia publicly joined military strikes alongside U.S. forces this week, targeting Iran-aligned groups in eastern Iraq. The U.S. military also carried out what it described as a “heavy wave” of strikes against Iran after an attempted ballistic ⁠missile attack on U.S. forces in the region.

Diplomatic efforts continue, however. Saudi Arabia is seeking to lead a 14-country coalition to boost maritime defence in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, all critical chokepoints for global energy supplies.

3/JOLT FROM JOBS?

Markets get a fresh read on the U.S. economy on Friday when closely watched non-farm payrolls data are released.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the July report to show payrolls increased by 91,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. A stronger-than-expected reading could raise bets that the Fed may need to resume raising rates to contain persistently above-target inflation at its next meeting in September.

The central bank held rates steady on Wednesday, but three policymakers voted for a hike and Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target.

4/ EUROPE’S BURNING ISSUES

Europe’s record-breaking heatwave looks set to ‌continue with fears mounting that wildfires that have devastated parts of Spain and France are spreading to Italy, Central Europe and Greece.

Markets should pay attention.

The economic costs are mounting, from healthcare spending and insurance claims to reconstruction bills and higher food prices, at a time when many heavily indebted governments are already grappling with the fallout of the Iran ⁠war. Adding to concerns, a ‘super’ El Nino event appears increasingly likely, raising the risk of further extreme weather globally.

In Britain, also facing wildfires and drought, major supermarket groups warn another food-price shock could be looming. In Germany, meanwhile, a contentious cabinet reshuffle has renewed pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz as the country also battles record temperatures.

DRUPEE

The Reserve Bank of India announces its latest policy decision on Wednesday, with most economists polled by Reuters expecting no change to the benchmark interest rate of 5.25%.

However, authorities will be attempting to prop up the rupee , one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies this year.

In June, the central bank unveiled measures designed to boost capital inflows and strengthen the balance of payments. The moves attracted more than $20 billion in their first month, but renewed strength in oil prices has since clouded the outlook.

For those thinking an interest rate increase might help, retail inflation has just breached the central bank’s target for the first time in over a year. Nevertheless, economists still expect the risks to growth to keep policymakers from acting, for now at least.

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