HPCL shares gained 3.5% to their day’s high of Rs 379 on the BSE, while IOCL shares rallied 3% to Rs 138 per share. BPCL soared the most, up 4.5% to Rs 295.

US President Donald Trump said a deal with Iran could be reached as early as this weekend. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he had called off the strikes after discussions with Iran were elevated to the highest levels of the Iranian leadership and received approval. He said key points of a proposed agreement had been approved “in both concept and great detail” by parties including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt, among others.

Brent crude futures fell $1.21, or 1.3%, to $89.17 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $1.23, or 1.4%, to $86.48 a barrel. Brent crude fell nearly 2% at the open to as low as $88.79 per barrel after settling at a two-month low in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded near $86 a barrel.

Downstream or oil marketing stocks usually come under pressure when oil prices rise as their input costs increase sharply while their ability to pass these costs on remains limited. These companies buy crude at higher prices, refine it and sell the end products, but pricing is often regulated, restricting full cost pass-through to consumers. As a result, margins get squeezed when product prices do not rise in line with crude.

What are experts saying?

Even if a deal is reached, analysts believe it could take several months for oil shipments through the strait to fully normalise and for damaged energy infrastructure to be repaired.

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Last month, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that disruptions in Hormuz could delay stability in global oil markets until 2027, with nearly 100 million barrels of oil supply per week potentially impacted. Saudi Aramco is the world’s largest oil producer.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley said the oil market was in “a race against time,” cautioning that the factors preventing crude prices from rising further may weaken if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut through June.The brokerage added that higher US crude exports and softer demand from China have so far helped prevent a deeper supply shock. However, it warned that an extended closure of Hormuz could tighten global supplies again if disruptions continue beyond what the US and China can comfortably absorb.

Iran has effectively enforced a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz since early March, requiring ships to obtain clearance before passing through the route or risk being targeted. The restrictions were imposed after US and Israeli strikes reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with several senior leaders.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints, with roughly 20% of global oil supply moving through the passage before the conflict. Iran’s blockade has sharply reduced crude exports from the Middle East, leading to what has been described as one of the largest supply disruptions in history.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)