Rising crude prices, geopolitical tensions around the UAE’s positioning within OPEC+, and their implications for Indian equities and macro stability took centre stage in a recent conversation on ET Now.

Crude oil’s sustained elevation continues to weigh on market sentiment, with concerns building around whether higher oil prices are effectively placing a ceiling on Indian equities. The discussion also touched upon the evolving UAE–OPEC+ dynamic and its potential medium-term implications for global supply.

UAE-OPEC+ shift and oil supply outlook
Market expert, Sunil Subramaniam highlighted that the current UAE situation is unlikely to result in any immediate increase in global oil supply, but could have deeper structural implications over time.He explained the logistical and geopolitical complexities shaping the region:

“See, what is the situation there is because UAE depends on the Hormuz Strait and it is heavy crude, and Saudi Arabia, which has the alternative route, has lighter crude. And anyway, UAE is not getting along with Saudi Arabia in terms of the relationship from a crude perspective. They have spent $150 billion on expanding capacity to five billion barrels, and now they are limiting them to three. So clearly UAE feels the heat.”
He further added that political positioning is also playing a role in the evolving dynamics:
“Politically, UAE wants to be aggressor in this war, but Saudi Arabia wants to be on the peace side. So it looks like UAE and the US are aligning closer to each other.”
According to him, the broader implication is a potential weakening of OPEC’s bargaining power:

“About 15% of OPEC production is UAE; that goes away, OPEC’s bargaining power comes down.”

Medium-term crude outlook and implications for India
Subramaniam noted that while short-term oil prices remain driven by geopolitical tensions—particularly disruptions linked to the Hormuz Strait—the medium-term trajectory could be more favourable.

He outlined a scenario-based outlook for oil prices:

“In about two to three months after the war, the oil price would settle at about $80 to $85. But now with this happening and UAE likely to pump another one to one-and-a-half million barrels into it, and the demand destruction because of war, in the medium term I see oil again retracing to 70.”

He emphasised that this would be a meaningful positive for India’s macroeconomic stability:

“If oil comes back to 70, it is a huge relief for India’s fiscal deficit and everything. From that point of view, this removes one cloud on India’s future.”

However, he cautioned that markets may not react immediately:

“In the short run, it is the war which is dominating, so do not expect any immediate reaction. That is why Brent has not reacted.”

Banking, financials show resilience
On the domestic financial sector, Subramaniam refrained from commenting on specific stocks but pointed to broader strength within the lending ecosystem.

He observed that rural demand and auto-linked credit trends remain supportive:

“The lending pack started off with the I bank results in terms of the fact that rural demand and auto demand both have held up strongly, and that connection between rural and auto is naturally played through lenders because of EMI-based purchasing.”

He added that asset quality remains broadly stable across the system, while also highlighting strength in non-lending financial businesses:

“Asset management companies have also come out with good results and the penetration story continues to play out.”

On PSU banks, he struck a more cautious near-term tone while maintaining a constructive medium-term view:

“Medium term my outlook on public sector banks is positive but short term I see some pressure because of the need to book profits.”

Pharma opportunity: Semaglutide and beyond
Turning to the pharmaceutical sector, Subramaniam underscored the growing global opportunity in semaglutide-based drugs, particularly as patents near expiry and generic competition expands.

He described the development as structurally significant:

“Absolutely. Semaglutides were originally a diabetic drug. India is already the diabetic capital of the world. But as a weight loss drug, it opens a much wider market.”

He pointed to strong demand potential in developed markets: “It is a huge opportunity in the Western world with unhealthy food habits. It is kind of explosive.”

On pricing dynamics and generics, he added: “They can retain very good profit margins but sell the product at 25% of what the branded drug costs. It is a game-breaking opportunity.”

Outlook
Overall, the commentary suggests that while crude oil volatility continues to dominate near-term market sentiment, the medium-term outlook may tilt more favourably for India—particularly if oil stabilises at lower levels. At the same time, financials and select pharmaceutical segments appear to be emerging as key structural themes in the evolving market landscape.

By Patrick O’Connell, CFA | Paulina Alcantara | Okan Akin, CFA

Managing carbon output may become a key profitability driver under a new EU border tax.

The European Union (EU), pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals, is significantly recalibrating

The John Lewis Partnership has been hauled before the High Court by the past and present owners of Brent Cross shopping centre in north London, in a dispute that could redraw the lines between bricks-and-mortar leases and the digital tills that now run through them.

Hammerson, the FTSE 250 landlord that owns Brent Cross today, and Standard Life, its predecessor, allege that the employee-owned retailer has been underpaying its rent for more than a decade by failing to count click-and-collect transactions as part of its in-store takings. The claim, lodged at the High Court last December and first surfaced by the *Financial Times*, hinges on the wording of a lease drafted in 1972, four years before Brent Cross even opened its doors and decades before the world wide web entered commercial use.

John Lewis has been one of the centre’s anchor tenants since 1976. The 125-year lease it signed obliges the partnership to pay a base rent of £30,000 a year plus a turnover top-up: 0.75 per cent of sales between £4m and £10m, rising to 1 per cent on anything above £10m. Industry sources put the store’s annual takings at around £50m, which would imply a rent bill of roughly £475,000 a year, a modest sum in modern retail terms, and a reminder of just how favourable these deals could be.

Such generous arrangements were common for anchors. In the heyday of the British shopping centre, landlords routinely offered cut-price rents to the John Lewises, BHSs and Marks & Spencers of the world on the basis that their mere presence would pull in footfall, lift surrounding rents and de-risk the entire scheme. Half a century on, those legacy leases are now being stress-tested against a retail landscape their drafters could not have imagined.

At the heart of the case is the meaning of “gross receipts”. Hammerson and Standard Life argue the term should capture online orders collected at the Brent Cross store, online orders fulfilled from the store, and in-store orders dispatched later from a John Lewis delivery depot. They point to lease language that already takes in “mail, telephone or similar orders received or filled at or from” the premises, alongside orders that “originated and/or are accepted at or from the demised premises” regardless of where delivery ultimately takes place.

John Lewis is not commenting publicly, but court papers show it is contesting the claim. Sources close to the partnership argue that a lease drafted before the internet existed cannot, as a matter of common sense, have intended to scoop up e-commerce.

That view has support across the property industry. “The sale occurs at the click, not the collect,” one rival landlord told *Business Matters*, “and the landlord should be benefiting from the ‘halo’ sales when shoppers come in to pick up their orders. You can’t argue there was intent to include click-and-collect in the lease because the internet didn’t exist in the seventies.”

The case is not solely about definitions. Hammerson has also taken aim at the way John Lewis has been reporting its numbers. Under the lease, the retailer must supply an audited sales certificate, signed off by its accountants. The landlord claims that for the past 12 years those certificates have come with a striking caveat: that the accountants’ examination “was not such as to constitute an audit”. Nor, it says, have the certificates included a breakdown of sales. The landlords “consider it likely” that some of those certificates have omitted sums that should have been included.

The remedy being sought is far-reaching. The claimants want the court to compel John Lewis to produce a detailed sales breakdown for every year since 2013, with backdated rent, interest and costs to follow if the figures show click-and-collect was excluded.

For SME retailers and landlords watching from the sidelines, the implications are considerable. Turnover-linked rents, once a niche feature of anchor tenant deals, have spread rapidly through high streets and retail parks since the pandemic, as landlords have offered flexibility in exchange for a slice of the upside. How the courts interpret half-century-old wording could set a benchmark for far more recent agreements that are similarly silent on omnichannel trading.

It also raises a more uncomfortable question for retailers running hybrid operations. If a click-and-collect order is fulfilled from a back-of-store stockroom, is the shop a shop, a warehouse, or both? The answer matters not just for rent, but potentially for business rates, insurance and even planning classifications further down the line.

A trial date has yet to be set. Whatever the outcome, the case is likely to be studied closely by every property director, finance chief and retail lawyer with a turnover lease in the bottom drawer.

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Shares of state-run Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers (GRSE) rallied as much as 16% to their day’s high of Rs 3,339 on the BSE on Wednesday, after it reported a net profit of Rs 303 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, up 24% from Rs 244 crore in the same period last year.

Revenue from operations rose 29% to Rs 2,119 crore in Q4FY26, compared with Rs 1,642 crore in the January-March quarter of FY25.

The defence PSU posted EBITDA of Rs 426 crore during the quarter, marking a 27% increase from Rs 335 crore a year earlier.

GRSE also reported strong overall financial performance, with total income rising 24.72% YoY to Rs 2,190 crore, compared with Rs 1,756.25 crore in Q4FY25.

Profit before tax (PBT) increased 26.98% YoY to Rs 410.85 crore, against Rs 323.55 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.

Earnings per share (EPS) climbed 24.14% YoY to Rs 26.47, up from Rs 21.32, reflecting stronger profitability and margin expansion.
Commenting on the results, Chairman and Managing Director Cmde PR Hari said FY26 was a landmark year for GRSE, with strong operational execution translating into solid financial performance.He said the company delivered eight warships during the year, equivalent to one ship every one-and-a-half months, calling it a notable achievement. He added that GRSE plans to maintain this pace through capability enhancement, adoption of new technologies and calibrated business diversification.

For the full year FY26, GRSE reported PAT of Rs 748 crore, compared with Rs 527 crore in FY25, registering 42% YoY growth. Revenue rose 38% to Rs 7,002 crore versus Rs 5,076 crore in FY25.

The company’s board has recommended a final dividend of Rs 6.70 per equity share for FY2025-26, subject to shareholder approval at the 110th Annual General Meeting (AGM). The dividend will be paid within 30 days of declaration at the AGM, the company said in its filing.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)