The prime minister’s Sunday morning BBC interview set hares running when it comes to the future of a policy once seen as politically untouchable.

The timing of the PM’s new social care plan sparked suggestions the government could be about to signal the death knell to the state pension triple lock after 16 years.

Andy Burnham said he will put forward tough decisions to fund a new national care service as part of Labour’s next general election manifesto, seeking a mandate to make the changes next Parliament.

The triple lock, which in theory expires at the end of this Parliament, means state pensions rise every April by at least 2.5%, or in line with the highest of prices or earnings.

Earlier this month, BBC News put this precise question about changing the triple lock in the next Parliament to Chancellor John Healey, who replied “the PM has said, like I have, that we must bring down welfare costs”.

It was a non-denial reflecting the fact that the PM has been besieged with advice, including from some of his favourite economists, that scrapping the triple lock, or even signalling it is a future possibility, is a golden opportunity for Britain’s economic policy at a tricky moment in the bond markets for all heavily indebted nations.

The UK specifically is seen as a place where successive governments have shirked tough long-term decisions. Could this be Burnham and Healey’s attempt to shift that perception, even in the slightly wild markets for government borrowing?

The politics are trickier. Reform’s leaders see the policy as a key potential dividing line with Labour.

Many in Westminster privately agree the Osborne-era policy is unsustainable economically, but argue it is politically impossible to unpick.

Many pensions campaigners point to the fact that even after increases, the UK’s state pension is not generous by international standards, though other countries have very different systems and rates of private provision.

Former ministers point out that the quid pro quo of redeploying the pension cash savings towards an in kind care service could shift the argument.

The lock is costing £15.5bn a year, treble original estimates of the 2030 cost, especially because of the volatility of prices and earnings.

Reverting to an earnings link could save tens of billions of pounds a year in the long run.

It is the sort of saving that could plausibly fund some form of national care service, potentially with cash left over as a buffer in a volatile world – but that depends on the ambition of the care plan, the generosity of any replacement for the triple lock, and how volatile prices are in the long term.

It had been deemed politically unthinkable, but the government now seems to be thinking about it, at least for the future.

The John Lewis Partnership is expanding its concessions into fine art and bespoke travel, adding three art galleries and 12 travel hubs to its department stores in the next stage of an £800m transformation plan.

The employee-owned retailer is also increasing its Randox Health concessions, which offer health assessments and blood tests, from three to seven, and opening six Tish Lyon studios offering piercing and jewellery welding services.

The company hopes the concessions, known as shop-in-shops, will attract more customers and keep them on the shop floor for longer.

The galleries will be run by Clarendon Fine Art, Britain’s largest art gallery group, and feature works by artists including Picasso, LS Lowry and Keith Haring. More modern pieces from the French street artist Thierry Guetta, known as Mr Brainwash, will also be available across a range of price points.

Two of the galleries are already open, at John Lewis’s Oxford Street and Southampton stores, and a third is set to launch in Cheadle, Greater Manchester. The galleries offer personalised art consultancy services.

The travel hubs will be operated by Audley Travel, an Oxfordshire-based tourism and advisory company whose trips range from private safaris to beach stays and river cruises.

John Lewis said demand for its advisory services, which include home design and personal styling, had risen by more than 5 per cent over the first half of the year.

Katie Papakonstantinou, director of services and hospitality at John Lewis, said: “Today’s shoppers want far more than products on shelves, they want inspiration, helpful expertise, and extraordinary experiences.”

She added that the expansion aimed to transform its stores into “dynamic destinations that drive footfall and build customer loyalty”.

Papakonstantinou has previously linked in-store experiences to customer loyalty, when the retailer announced plans for more cafés and restaurants in its stores last year.

The expansion forms part of a turnaround led by Jason Tarry, the chairman, who is seeking to revive sales after a period of rising costs and pressure on consumer spending.

The partnership’s interim results, published on 10 September, showed pre-tax losses widening to £124m in the 26 weeks to 1 August, from £88m a year earlier. Tarry has said he is “confident” that the company will turn an annual profit.

In the same statement, the partnership said it remained cautious about the second half and that its full-year outcome would be determined by peak trading.

The £800m investment programme has already brought Topshop back to 32 John Lewis stores, alongside refurbishments of key branches including the Oxford Street flagship.

Earlier this year the retailer set out plans to grow its share of the beauty market with its first Korean beauty concessions, seeking to tap into consumer interest in cosmetics and skincare from South Korea.

That included launching 20 Korean skin and haircare brands online and opening Skin Cupid concessions in its Cambridge, Kingston and Leeds stores over the summer.

John Lewis has also set a target of generating more than £100m in extra profits through more “joined-up” loyalty programmes, and a further £180m from its retail media business, which includes promotional partnerships with brands.

The retailer has separately been investing in video content to improve its visibility in AI search, launching a YouTube chatshow ahead of Christmas.

This note analyzes how climate transition pathways impact firm-level credit risk in ASEAN+3 economies, comparing default probabilities under NDC and NZE scenarios, highlighting scenario-based risk variability.

Analyzing Climate Transition Pathways

This analytical note delves into the impacts of various climate transition pathways on firm-level credit risk in ASEAN+3 economies. The study specifically focuses on assessing the 12-month firm-level probabilities of default (PDs) as a measure of credit risk. By examining the scenarios set by Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and net-zero 2050 (NZE) in comparison to current policies, the study highlights how sector-specific and country-specific dynamics influence credit risk. The findings underscore the complexity and variability of transition risk across different scenarios.

Probabilities of Default Under Different Scenarios

The research compares firm-level probabilities of default under two significant climate pathways: the NDC and NZE 2050 scenarios. These scenarios provide insights into how firms might be affected by transition policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions. By using PDs as a proxy for credit risk, the study provides a clearer picture of potential financial strain and the varying degree of risk that firms may encounter. The comparative analysis across sectors and countries reveals significant differences, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches to address these unique challenges.

Insights on Transition Risk

Transition risk presents a highly heterogeneous landscape, driven by variations in policy adoption and implementation across the ASEAN+3 region. The study’s results indicate that while some sectors or countries might face heightened credit risks under transition scenarios, others might experience less impact. This variability calls for a nuanced understanding of how climate policies and transitional measures affect financial stability at the firm level. By highlighting the diverse nature of transition risk, the analysis prompts policymakers and businesses to consider strategic actions that mitigate such risks while embracing sustainable pathways.

Source: Climate Transition Pathways and Firm-Level Credit Risks in ASEAN+3 – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office

Two years on from September-end 2024, when foreign investors began pulling money out of Indian equities, a lot has changed for Dalal Street. The Sensex has lost 13.6% and the Nifty 11.6% in absolute terms, even as peers like Korea (167%) and Taiwan (110%) surged.

FPI outflows of over Rs 2.17 lakh crore in the past year have been offset by strong domestic mutual fund inflows of Rs 4.98 lakh crore, cushioning the market from a sharper drop.

Read more: Two years on, Indian equities remain stuck in a grind

The AI trade elsewhere, the West Asia crisis, higher oil prices and a weaker rupee have weighed on India, with sectoral casualties such as IT (-33.4%) and FMCG (-30.2%) deepening the underperformance. The bright spot: valuations have cooled, with the Sensex’s trailing PE at 20.3 times, below its five- and ten-year averages, leaving India relatively cheaper than many global peers.
Read more: Rupee’s likely to slip despite RBI push for stability

For British and European companies, this creates considerable opportunity. But sourcing from a factory thousands of miles away also introduces a familiar challenge: how can buyers be confident that what leaves the factory actually matches what they ordered?

Supplier selection is only the beginning. Once production starts, maintaining consistent quality across materials, workmanship, specifications, packaging and shipment becomes equally important. This is where independent quality control can play an important role.

Vietnam’s Growing Role in Global Manufacturing

Over the past decade, Vietnam has developed into a significant manufacturing base for international brands, retailers and importers.

The country now supports a broad range of industries, including textiles and garments, footwear, furniture, electronics, household goods, metal products, machinery and automotive components. Its extensive network of ports and proximity to other Asian manufacturing centres have also helped Vietnam become an attractive part of regional supply chains.

At the same time, sourcing strategies have changed.

Rather than relying on a single country or supplier, many companies are building more diversified production networks. Vietnam frequently forms part of this approach, particularly for businesses seeking additional manufacturing capacity in Southeast Asia.

However, moving production or adding new suppliers does not automatically guarantee consistent quality.

New supplier relationships often involve different production processes, quality systems and interpretations of specifications. Even experienced factories can encounter problems when production volumes increase, materials change or delivery schedules become tight.

For overseas buyers, discovering these issues after goods arrive is usually the most expensive time to find them.

The Cost of Finding Problems Too Late

Quality problems rarely begin with a dramatic manufacturing failure. More often, they involve smaller deviations that accumulate during production.

A factory may use an incorrect component. Dimensions may gradually move outside tolerance. Colour or finishing may differ from the approved sample. Labels may contain incorrect information. Packaging may not provide sufficient protection for international transport.

Individually, some of these problems appear minor. Across thousands of units, however, they can become commercially significant.

Once a shipment has left Vietnam, resolving a problem can involve returns, rework, replacement production, air freight, delayed deliveries or disputes with suppliers. For importers supplying retailers or project customers, the indirect cost of missing a delivery date may be even greater.

The objective of quality control is therefore not simply to find defective products. It is to identify problems at a stage when corrective action is still practical.

Why Independent Inspection Can Help

Factories normally have their own quality-control teams, and strong suppliers should be expected to maintain effective internal systems. Independent inspection does not replace those systems.

Instead, it provides the buyer with an additional layer of verification.

An inspector works against the buyer’s specifications, approved samples, purchase order and inspection criteria rather than relying solely on the factory’s internal assessment.

Depending on the product and stage of production, an inspection may include checks covering quantity, workmanship, dimensions, functionality, materials, product marking, packaging and other requirements defined by the buyer.

For companies managing suppliers remotely, arranging a third-party inspection in Vietnam can provide an independent view of production before goods are released for shipment.

This is particularly useful when working with a new supplier, producing a new product, handling a large order or manufacturing goods with detailed technical requirements.

Inspection Should Happen at the Right Stage

One common mistake is to think of quality inspection as something that happens only when production is complete.

Final inspection is important, but different stages of production provide different opportunities to control risk.

A pre-production inspection can verify materials, components and production preparation before mass manufacturing begins. This may be valuable when particular materials or components are critical to the finished product.

During-production inspection provides visibility while manufacturing is underway. If a recurring defect or specification issue is identified at this point, the factory may still have time to correct the process before the entire order is completed.

Pre-shipment inspection is generally conducted when production is substantially complete. Inspectors select samples according to the agreed inspection method and evaluate the finished goods against the buyer’s requirements.

For containerised shipments, loading supervision can provide another level of control by checking quantities, container condition and the loading process.

The appropriate combination depends on the value of the order, complexity of the product and level of supplier risk.

Technology Is Making Remote Quality Control Easier

Quality inspection is also becoming more transparent.

Digital reports, photographs and videos allow buyers to review findings without being physically present at the factory. Inspection results can often be shared shortly after the visit, allowing purchasing and quality teams in different countries to make decisions quickly.

This is particularly relevant for small and medium-sized companies.

Large multinational businesses may maintain their own quality teams throughout Asia. For smaller importers, employing permanent personnel close to every supplier may not be practical. Independent inspection allows them to access local quality-control resources when required without building the same infrastructure themselves.

However, technology does not eliminate the need for technical judgement.

Photographs can show a defect, but an experienced inspector must still understand what to examine, how to sample products and how to compare the findings against the buyer’s specifications.

Quality Control Begins Before the Inspector Arrives

Inspection is most effective when expectations are clear.

Before production begins, buyers should provide suppliers with detailed product specifications, approved samples where applicable, packaging requirements and clearly defined acceptance criteria.

The same information should be available to the inspection company.

Vague requirements create room for interpretation. A buyer cannot reasonably expect an inspector to reject a feature that was never included in the specification or purchase documentation.

Clear documentation also makes disputes easier to resolve because the factory, buyer and inspector are working from the same reference points.

The strongest quality-control programmes therefore combine three elements: clear specifications, capable suppliers and independent verification.

Building More Resilient Supplier Relationships

Independent inspection is sometimes viewed as a sign that a buyer does not trust its supplier. In practice, it can serve a different purpose.

A transparent inspection process establishes objective expectations for both sides.

When requirements are clearly defined and inspection criteria are agreed in advance, suppliers understand what will be checked before shipment. Buyers receive evidence about the condition of the goods, while factories receive specific information about any corrective action required.

Over time, inspection data can also reveal patterns.

Repeated issues involving packaging, dimensions, workmanship or particular production lines may indicate where suppliers need to improve their processes. Conversely, consistently strong inspection results can give buyers greater confidence in established suppliers.

The goal is not simply to reject defective shipments. It is to create a supply chain in which quality becomes increasingly predictable.

A Practical Part of Sourcing from Vietnam

Vietnam’s manufacturing sector offers international buyers significant opportunities, and its role in global supply chains is likely to remain important.

But geographical distance makes visibility essential.

Companies sourcing internationally cannot always be present when raw materials arrive, when production begins or when containers are loaded. Independent quality control helps close that information gap.

For importers, the most effective approach is often straightforward: establish clear requirements, select suppliers carefully, verify production at the appropriate stages and address problems before the goods leave the factory.

The cost of preventing a quality problem is usually far easier to manage than the cost of discovering one after a container has travelled halfway around the world.