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Defence stocks set for mixed Q4; Nuvama bets on BEL, Solar Industries, and a smallcap pick

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Defence stocks set for mixed Q4; Nuvama bets on BEL, Solar Industries, and a smallcap pick
Listed defence sector companies are expected to deliver a mixed set of numbers in Q4FY26, despite robust order visibility and sustained inflows and a healthy pipeline where backlogs are no longer a constraint, Nuvama Institutional Equities said in a note.

The brokerage firm has picked Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), Data Patterns (India) and Solar Industries India as its top bets.

The pace of new large-ticket orders is likely to slow, with growth increasingly anchored in repeat and replenishment contracts. Consequently, while overall visibility remains robust, the momentum in order inflow growth is expected to moderate, the brokerage added.

After subdued traction for defence stocks in March despite the ongoing Iran-Israel war, April has started on a strong note with the Nifty India Defence index rising over 9% this week. Individually, stocks rallied over 20% with 10 scrips in the 18-stock index delivering double-digit returns.

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One can expect more action as earnings are announced and based on developments around the Iran-Israel war. While a two-week ceasefire is ongoing, there has been an exchange of fire between Israel and Lebanon. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance has been tasked with ending the war as he leads negotiations beginning today.

Q4FY26 expectations

BEL

BEL is expected to report modest execution in Q4FY26 with revenue growth of 3.6% YoY, while its order backlog strengthened to Rs 74,000 crore, providing “solid” medium-term visibility. Margins are expected to remain structurally strong at 28%, driven by improving operational efficiencies and higher localisation levels.On the order pipeline front, the Rs 30,000 crore QRSAM programme, for which the Indian Army has already rolled out the tender, is likely to materialise in the near term and could act as a key re-rating trigger, alongside the sustenance of 27%+ OPM trajectory.

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Solar Industries


Nuvama expects healthy execution momentum, with revenue growth of 28% YoY, though the defence topline is likely to come in at Rs 900 crore, significantly below the Rs 3,000 crore guidance, primarily due to delays in Pinaka execution and geopolitical disruptions impacting defence supply chains.

Margins are expected to remain robust at 27%, supported by a higher contribution from defence and overseas revenues. The defence backlog of ~INR180bn provides earnings visibility over the next two to three years, while anticipated Pinaka ER orders, estimated at Rs 4,000 crore – 6,000 crore, are likely to further strengthen the growth outlook beyond FY27–28E.

Data Patterns

For the quarter, Nuvama anticipates decent order inflows supported by the reported Rs 290 crore Doppler radars order, while management had earlier guided for the conversion of Rs 1,110 crore worth of negotiated orders under finalisation (as indicated in Q3FY26).

“We expect moderate topline growth of 6.6% YoY on a high base, with margins remaining strong at 43%, reflecting a favourable product mix and operating leverage,” the brokerage note said.

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HAL


Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is likely to report a decline in execution in Q4FY26 at 4.4% YoY, below Nuvama’s expectations, which factored in only base order execution including engines and ROH, with no Tejas deliveries commencing during the quarter.

“So far, a total of six GE engines have been delivered, with no aircraft deliveries to the Indian Air Force. Given this, the delivery schedule for the committed LCA Tejas programme appears tight, posing a risk to near-term execution ramp-up,” the note said.

While HAL has a decade-long opportunity pipeline of Rs 4.7 lakh crore, execution ramp-up of its large-scale programs sitting in its Rs 2.4 lakh crore backlog is critical, the brokerage said, listing ongoing supply chain challenges, particularly focusing on the timely procurement of critical components.

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Bharat Dynamics


With a robust backlog of Rs 22,800 crore as of end-FY25, BDL is well positioned to deliver a revenue CAGR of 35% over FY25–28E. That said, execution remained volatile in Q4, impacted by both global and domestic supply chain constraints. Margins are expected to be around 22%, supported by an anticipated 35% execution growth in Q4FY26, which should aid operating leverage despite underlying variability, Nuvama noted.

Defence stocks returns snapshot

Select defence stocks have delivered multibagger returns over a one-year despite volatile domestic markets that have braved rich valuations, weak earnings, FII outflows, tariffs and now an ongoing war.

MTAR Technologies tops the charts with 224% one-year returns and is followed by Axiscades Technologies, Apollo Micro Systems and Data Patterns with returns of Rs 124%, 113% and 100%, respectively.

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Bharat Forge, Dynamatic Technologies, Garden Reach Shipbuilders, Bharat Electronics, Paras Defence and Space Technologies, Solar Industries, and Mishra Dhatu Nigam delivered double-digit returns up to 86% in this period.

Meanwhile, PSU defence counters BEML, Cochin Shipyard, BDL, Mazagon Dock, and HAL have yielded single-digit returns up to 9%.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

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US Secretary of State to travel to Vatican and Italy, newspapers report

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US Secretary of State to travel to Vatican and Italy, newspapers report


US Secretary of State to travel to Vatican and Italy, newspapers report

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OPEC+ set to agree third oil output quota hike since Hormuz closure, sources say

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OPEC+ set to agree third oil output quota hike since Hormuz closure, sources say


OPEC+ set to agree third oil output quota hike since Hormuz closure, sources say

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10 penny stocks surged up to 490% in 6 months. Do you own any? – Penny Stock Surge

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10 penny stocks surged up to 490% in 6 months. Do you own any? - Penny Stock Surge

In the last six months, 10 penny stocks delivered impressive gains ranging from 25% to 490%, including two multibaggers. We identified these outperformers using specific filters: a market capitalisation below Rs 1,000 crore, a share price under Rs 20, and a latest minimum trading volume of 5 lakh shares. This approach helped spotlight low-priced, actively traded micro-cap stocks showing strong upward momentum.
Penny stocks continue to draw interest due to their low price points and high return potential. However, they come with substantial risks, including low liquidity, sharp volatility, and limited transparency. For investors, success in this space requires more than luck, it demands discipline, thorough research, and a firm grip on risk management. (Data Source: ACE Equity)

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China, Philippines trade accusations over South China Sea

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OPEC+ targets 188,000 bpd hike to signal stability post-UAE exit

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How to become a successful trader in today’s volatile stock market

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How to become a successful trader in today’s volatile stock market
The Indian stock market in 2026 presents a paradox. On one hand, strong economic fundamentals and long-term growth prospects continue to attract investors. On the other hand, rising geopolitical tensions, volatile crude oil prices, and foreign investor outflows have introduced significant uncertainty.

In such a dynamic environment, becoming a successful trader requires more than just luck—it demands discipline, adaptability, and a deep understanding of market behavior. Drawing insights from market experts and aligning them with current conditions, here are the key principles every trader should follow.

1. Respect Market Volatility, Don’t Fight It

The current market phase is marked by sharp swings. For instance, indices like the Sensex and Nifty have shown rapid fluctuations—rising one day and falling sharply the next due to global cues and geopolitical developments.

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Successful traders understand that volatility is not a threat but an opportunity. Instead of predicting every move, they focus on reacting correctly. Accepting uncertainty is the first step toward consistent trading performance.


2. Focus on Risk Management Above All
One of the most important lessons from seasoned traders is simple: protect your capital first.In today’s market, where even large-cap stocks have seen significant valuation erosion and sudden corrections, risk management becomes critical.

This means:

Using stop-loss orders

Avoiding over-leveraging

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Limiting exposure to a single trade

A trader who survives market downturns is better positioned to benefit from future opportunities.

3. Follow the Trend, Not Emotions

Markets are currently influenced by macro factors like oil price shocks, inflation concerns, and global conflicts.

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In such conditions, emotional trading can be dangerous. Many beginners try to “catch the bottom” or “sell at the top,” but professionals focus on trend-following strategies.

If the market is showing weakness (like sustained corrections or lower highs), it’s wiser to stay cautious rather than aggressively bullish.

4. Stay Updated with Macro and Global Developments

Unlike earlier times, today’s markets are deeply interconnected with global events.

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For example:

Rising crude oil prices impact inflation and corporate earnings

Geopolitical tensions affect foreign investor sentiment

Currency fluctuations influence export-oriented sectors

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These factors have already led to cautious outlooks from global institutions and significant foreign capital outflows.

A successful trader keeps an eye not just on charts, but also on global news and economic indicators.

5. Avoid Overtrading in Uncertain Markets

When markets become unpredictable, the temptation to trade frequently increases. However, overtrading often leads to losses.

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Experts emphasize patience—waiting for high-probability setups rather than chasing every market move.

In fact, periods of consolidation and volatility often reward disciplined traders more than aggressive ones.

6. Build a Strong Trading Psychology

Trading is as much psychological as it is analytical. Fear and greed are amplified in volatile markets like the current one.

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A successful trader:

Accepts losses as part of the process

Avoids revenge trading

Stays consistent with strategy

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Mental discipline is what separates long-term winners from short-term speculators.

7. Think Long-Term While Trading Short-Term

Even though short-term volatility dominates headlines, India’s long-term growth story remains intact due to strong domestic demand and economic resilience.

This dual perspective is crucial:

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Trade short-term movements with discipline

Invest long-term with conviction

Balancing both helps traders stay grounded during market turbulence.

Key Takeaways

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The stock market in 2026 is a classic example of opportunity wrapped in uncertainty. While volatility driven by global factors may persist in the near term, it also creates fertile ground for skilled traders.

Success in trading today is not about predicting the future—it is about managing risk, controlling emotions, and adapting to ever-changing market conditions. Those who master these principles will not only survive volatile markets but thrive in them.

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Mcap of four of top-10 most valued firms surges by Rs 2.20 lakh cr; Reliance biggest winner

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Mcap of four of top-10 most valued firms surges by Rs 2.20 lakh cr; Reliance biggest winner
The combined market valuation of four of the top-10 most valued firms surged by Rs 2.20 lakh crore in a holiday-shortened last week, with Reliance Industries emerging as the biggest gainer.

Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex climbed 249.29 points or 0.32 per cent.

“Markets ended the week with marginal gains, reflecting a volatile and range-bound trading environment amid mixed global and domestic cues,” Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

The week began on a positive note, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and steady progress in Q4 earnings, which lifted initial sentiment, he said.

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The week began on a positive note, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and steady progress in Q4 earnings, which lifted initial sentiment, he said.

However, gains were gradually capped by rising crude oil prices, weak cues from Asian markets, and persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, Mishra added.
However, gains were gradually capped by rising crude oil prices, weak cues from Asian markets, and persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, Mishra added.
While Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Bajaj Finance were the gainers from the pack, HDFC Bank, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) faced a combined erosion of Rs 1.24 lakh crore from their valuation.
Reliance Industries added Rs 1,39,655.8 crore taking its market valuation to Rs 19,36,303.30 crore.

Bharti Airtel’s valuation surged Rs 43,503.51 crore to Rs 11,49,222.13 crore.

The market valuation of TCS jumped Rs 27,569.83 crore to Rs 8,94,933.95 crore and that of Bajaj Finance climbed Rs 9,432.32 crore to Rs 5,83,123.13 crore.

However, the market capitalisation (mcap) of ICICI Bank eroded by Rs 45,364.62 crore to Rs 9,04,980.78 crore.

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The valuation of State Bank of India dropped Rs 30,922.57 crore to Rs 9,85,829.96 crore.

The mcap of HDFC Bank diminished by Rs 20,951.31 crore to Rs 11,87,274.17 crore and that of Hindustan Unilever edged lower by Rs 18,420.79 crore to Rs 5,28,799.01 crore.

The valuation of LIC declined by Rs 8,222.49 crore to Rs 5,04,798.07 crore and that of Larsen & Toubro dipped by Rs 178.83 crore to Rs 5,51,993.05 crore.

Reliance Industries remained the most valued domestic firm followed by HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, TCS, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever and LIC.

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10 Largecap stocks with strong upside potential of up to 50%! Do you own any? – Largecap stocks surge

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10 Largecap stocks with strong upside potential of up to 50%! Do you own any? - Largecap stocks surge

Analyst forecasts offer more than just numbers, they provide a strategic view of future market potential. For investors seeking the next big opportunity, a closer look at BSE large-cap stocks reveals several promising contenders.

Based on consensus estimates from Trendlyne, a number of largecap stocks are projected to deliver strong returns over the next 12 months. This anticipated “upside” represents the average expected gain over the coming year, offering a data-driven benchmark for investors targeting high-potential opportunities. In this analysis, we spotlight 10 standout largecap stocks expected to deliver gains in the 30% to 50% range over the year ahead.

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Japan targets Australian critical minerals to counter China supply risks

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Japan targets Australian critical minerals to counter China supply risks

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