Traders have been betting millions of dollars shortly before US President Donald Trump makes big announcements throughout his second term.

And communications relating to the Iran war are no exception.

The BBC has looked into trade volume data that suggests several large bets were made shortly before Trump made market-moving statements.

Nick Marsh has this analysis.

Typhoo Tea owner reports ‘significant growth in vape sales’

Consumer goods group Supreme says its results are set to be “significantly ahead” of expectations thanks to rising vape sales and its takeover of SlimFast.

In a trading update to the stock market this morning, Trafford Park-based Supreme says that for the 12 months to March 31 it will post record results thanks to “significant growth in vape sales and the positive impact from acquisitions and new products”.

Supreme says it expects to post a 15% increase in revenues to £265m, with adjusted EBITDA of some £40.6m, on par with last year’s £40.5m. It says those figures are “significantly ahead of market consensus expectations”.

Supreme says it remains net-cash positive even after investing £12.4m in acquisitions and £5m in its manufacturing sites, including a new 40,000 sq ft dedicated wellness facility.

Its statement said: “Sales from the group’s vaping category are expected to be more than 10% higher than prior year even with the UK disposable vape ban on 1 June 2025, demonstrating Supreme’s ongoing market resilience.”

It also hailed the performance of Supreme’s Drinks & Wellness business, which now includes SlimFast UK and Ireland. Supreme bought that business in a deal it said would be worth a total of £20.1m.

Supreme today added: “The category is further supported by investment in two brand new manufacturing facilities, strengthening its operational capacity and positioning this category for long-term growth.”

Other Supreme brands include Typhoo Tea and Perfectly Clear.

The rise of on-demand businesses has changed how products are created and delivered. From custom t-shirts to personalized accessories, small entrepreneurs are now able to produce items only when needed. This shift has reduced waste, lowered startup costs, and opened doors for freelancers and home-based businesses.

One tool that plays a major role in this transformation is the heat press machine. While it’s commonly associated with apparel printing, its use has expanded into many practical areas—including creating customized solutions like ergonomic grips for people with arthritis.

The Growth of On-Demand Production

Traditional manufacturing relies on bulk production. However, modern consumers prefer personalized items tailored to their needs. This demand has fueled the growth of small-scale, on-demand production setups.

Entrepreneurs now focus on:

• Producing items only after receiving orders
• Offering customization options
• Reducing inventory risks
• Delivering faster turnaround times

This model works especially well for freelancers who want to start small without heavy investment.

Where Heat Press Machines Fit In

A heat press is one of the most versatile tools in an on-demand setup. You can explore available options here: heat press: It allows users to apply heat and pressure to materials, making it possible to transfer designs, bond layers, or shape surfaces.

For apparel businesses, it’s used to print designs on shirts. But beyond that, it’s also being used to create functional items like custom grips, soft handles, and assistive tools.

Expanding Beyond Apparel: Practical Customization

One of the most interesting developments is how entrepreneurs are using heat press technology outside of clothing.

For example, people with arthritis often struggle with grip strength. A small business can create custom orthotic grips using simple tools and materials. This is where on-demand production truly shines each product is made specifically for the user.

A Simple Workflow for Small Entrepreneurs

Let’s break down how a small setup can operate efficiently:

1. Design and Personalization

Every order begins with understanding the customer’s needs. Whether it’s a t-shirt design or a custom grip, personalization is key.

2. Printing with DTF Technology

To create detailed and flexible designs, many small businesses rely on a dtf transfer printer:

For entrepreneurs, especially those working from home, reliability matters more than anything. Orders don’t always come in daily sometimes there are gaps. In such cases, it’s helpful to have a printer that can handle idle time without turning the next print session into a problem.

This kind of setup supports a low-stress workflow. You can focus on fulfilling orders rather than worrying about constant maintenance. It’s particularly useful when you’re managing everything alone designing, printing, packaging, and responding to customers.

3. Material Preparation

Depending on the product, materials like fabric, foam, or rubber are prepared. These materials are chosen for flexibility and comfort.

4. Heat Press Application

Using the heat press machine, designs are transferred or materials are shaped. The process is quick and repeatable, making it ideal for small batches.

5. Finishing with Heat Transfer Vinyl

To enhance durability or add texture, heat transfer vinyl is often used:
heat transfer vinyl: This step improves both the look and functionality of the final product.

Why On-Demand Works for Freelancers

For freelancers like you, this model offers several advantages:

Low Startup Cost

You don’t need a large inventory or warehouse.

Flexible Work Schedule

You can work when orders come in perfect for balancing multiple clients.

Reduced Risk

Since products are made on demand, there’s no risk of unsold stock.

Easy Scaling

Start small and grow as demand increases.

Managing Workload Without Stress

One of the biggest challenges in small businesses is handling workload fluctuations.

Some days may be busy with multiple orders, while others are quiet. This is where choosing the right tools becomes important.

Equipment that is:

• Easy to operate
• Stable during production
• Less demanding in maintenance

…can help maintain a smooth workflow.

For example, built-in alerts or simple controls can save time when you’re multitasking. You might be answering Fiverr messages while your machine is running, so having a system that doesn’t require constant monitoring is a big advantage.

Real Example: A Home-Based Business

Imagine running a small online store selling custom products.

• On weekdays, you receive a few orders
• On weekends, orders increase due to promotions

With a simple setup using a heat press and a reliable DTF printer, you can handle both situations. You don’t need a large team or complex system—just tools that work when you need them.

After a break or a slow period, you can resume work without delays. This keeps your business running smoothly and your customers satisfied.

The Future of Small Custom Businesses

The trend of on-demand production is only growing. As tools become more accessible, more people will enter this space.

We can expect:

• More personalized products
• Faster production methods
• Greater opportunities for freelancers

This is especially relevant in niches like healthcare, where customized solutions can make a real difference.

Conclusion

Heat press machines are no longer limited to printing t-shirts; they are now a key part of modern, on-demand production systems. Combined with tools like DTF printers and heat transfer vinyl, they allow small entrepreneurs to create customized products efficiently.

For freelancers and small business owners, the focus should be on building a workflow that is simple, reliable, and scalable. When your tools support your process instead of complicating it, you can focus on what truly matters, serving your customers and growing your business.

The chancellor has called in the chiefs of Britain’s top banks for a summit this week to discuss the economic impact of the Middle East conflict

Rachel Reeves has summoned the heads of Britain’s top banks for a summit this week to address the economic repercussions of the war in Iran. The Chancellor has extended invitations to executives from Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, Natwest, Santander UK, as well as the UK’s largest building society Nationwide, for a meeting this Wednesday.

The gathering – as reported by Sky News – will include Natwest chief Paul Thwaite and Lloyds’ boss Charlie Nunn. Barclays’ retail chief Vim Maru is expected to be in attendance alongside Nationwide’s chief executive Debbie Crosbie, while Santander will be represented by its newly appointed UK head Mahesh Aditya.

The economic fallout from the Iran war is set to dominate the agenda as the Chancellor seeks ways to cushion the blow felt across the country.

Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) delivered the UK economy the steepest downward revision of any nation in the G7, as reported by City AM.

Growth was cut by 0.5 percentage points in the wake of the upheaval in the Middle East, which has kept energy prices stubbornly high.

This comes as banks prepare to publish their first-quarter results, where the volatility in the Middle East is anticipated to feature prominently as banks increase their provisions for loan losses. Barclays will be the first to report on 28 April, followed by Lloyds on the 29 and Natwest on 1 May.

Banks to help Reeves navigate Iran turmoil Fresh figures released last week from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed the UK economy expanded by 0.5 per cent prior to the war – significantly exceeding expectations.

However, City economists were swift to dampen any optimism surrounding the figures, dismissing the surge as “too good to be true”.

Martin Beck, a former Treasury economist now at WPI Strategy, described the latest data as the “calm before the storm”, warning that first-quarter growth is likely to be weighed down by more concerning figures due for release next month.

A note from RBC indicated that Barclays would be the most “hurt” bank by economic downgrades, owing to its bullish macro forecasts.

Barclays’ forecast for 2026 economic growth – used to calculate anticipated credit losses – stands at 1.1 per cent, considerably above the more conservative 0.7 per cent projected by Lloyds.

The independent body average – drawing consensus from a range of professional institutions outside the banks themselves, including the IMF, HM Treasury, NIESR, Bloomberg, and the Bank of England – sits at one per cent.

The meeting comes amid renewed tensions in the Middle East, following Iran’s decision to re-close the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend in response to the US blockade. Trump has also revived threats to bomb Iranian power plants, with the ceasefire deadline for Wednesday rapidly approaching.

Ring-fencing row returns to table Banks are also anticipated to use the gathering to press ahead with key lobbying efforts on regulation, including possible reforms to the ring-fencing regime established in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

Ring-fencing obliges major banks to separate their retail banking operations from their investment banking activities. It was brought in following the financial crisis to safeguard stability and was enshrined in the Financial Services Act 2013.

The threshold at which banks become subject to ring-fencing was lifted to £35bn, up from £25bn, in October 2024 by former City Minister Tulip Siddiq.

Nevertheless, senior bank executives have continued to push for a more accommodating framework, with the chief executives of HSBC, Santander, Natwest and Lloyds writing to the Chancellor branding the system “redundant”.

CS Venkatakrishnan, Barclays’ chief executive, broke ranks with his counterparts to advocate for the system, arguing that it delivers a net benefit.

“There are two counterpoints: we have spent the money on the set-up and we make it work; but the more important fact is that you have to weigh against this the immense amount of depositor protection that the ring-fencing regime gives the country,” he said.

Businesses can begin filing for tariff refunds on Monday as the federal government starts unwinding billions of dollars in import duties imposed by the Trump administration under emergency powers, opening the door to what could be one of the largest repayments to importers in U.S. history.

At 8 p.m. ET on April 20, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will launch the first phase of a new claims system that will allow importers to seek repayment of tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), following a series of court rulings that invalidated the policy.

The Supreme Court ruled in February that the law President Donald Trump relied on for his signature policy did not authorize the imposition of tariffs, finding that Congress – not the president – holds authority over such taxes. The decision set the stage for lower courts to order the government to reverse course and return the funds.

A judge at the U.S. Court of International Trade subsequently directed CBP to remove the tariffs from affected entries and refund any excess duties collected, along with interest.

OIL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER IRAN SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ OPEN FOR COMMERCIAL SHIPPING

The Supreme Court ruled in February that Congress – not the president – holds authority over the imposition of tariffs.  (David McNew/Getty Images)

The scale of the refunds could be significant for businesses across industries. Court filings show more than 330,000 importers paid duties on over 53 million shipments, totaling roughly $166 billion.

ONE YEAR LATER, TRUMP TARIFFS GENERATED BILLIONS AS REFUNDS TAKE SHAPE

Starting Monday, companies and their customs brokers can submit refund requests through CBP’s Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) portal using a newly developed tool known as the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries, or CAPE.

President Donald Trump speaks during a trade announcement event in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025, in Washington, D.C.  (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

The system allows importers to file declarations listing the entries for which they are seeking refunds. Once a claim is validated, CBP will recalculate the duties without the IEEPA tariffs and reliquidate the entries, triggering repayment.

CBP said valid refunds will generally be issued within 60 to 90 days after a claim is accepted, though more complex cases could take longer. The agency is rolling out the process in phases, with the initial stage limited to certain unliquidated entries and those within 80 days of final accounting.

The scale of the refunds could be significant for businesses across industries. (STR/AFP/Getty Images)

Officials have warned the process could be complicated given the scale. In court filings, CBP described the volume of refunds as “unprecedented,” noting that existing systems were not designed to handle so many claims and may require significant manual processing.

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The refunds will be paid directly to the businesses that originally paid the tariffs, marking an early step in reversing a major trade policy with broad economic impact.

SANTA BARBARA, California — Nobel Prize-winning physicist David Gross has issued a stark warning that humanity stands a slim chance of surviving another 50 years, citing the grave risk of nuclear war as the primary barrier preventing scientists from achieving a unified theory of all fundamental forces.

Gross, who shared the 2004 Nobel Prize in Physics for his work on the strong nuclear force and asymptotic freedom, made the comments in a recent interview with Live Science while discussing the long quest for a “theory of everything” that would reconcile quantum mechanics with gravity. When asked whether physicists might complete such a unification within 50 years, the 83-year-old researcher replied bluntly that the chances of humanity lasting that long are “very small.”

“Currently, I spend part of my time trying to tell people … that the chances of you living 50 [more] years are very small,” Gross said. He pointed specifically to nuclear war as a potential civilization-ending catastrophe that could arrive within 35 years, emphasizing that geopolitical tensions and the persistence of thousands of warheads worldwide make the threat immediate and existential.

The remarks, which quickly spread across scientific and popular media outlets, highlight a growing pessimism among some leading thinkers about humanity’s long-term prospects amid multiple overlapping risks. Gross, who also received the $3 million Special Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental Physics, has devoted decades to string theory and efforts to unify the four fundamental forces — gravity, electromagnetism, and the strong and weak nuclear forces. Yet he now sees human self-destruction, rather than scientific obstacles, as the greatest hurdle.

Nuclear war remains a central concern. With Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine, tensions over Taiwan, and the proliferation risks involving nations such as North Korea and Iran, the probability of escalation to nuclear exchange has drawn renewed attention. Gross suggested that without dramatic progress in arms control and diplomacy, civilization could collapse long before physicists resolve the deep mathematical and conceptual challenges of quantum gravity.

His comments echo broader warnings from other Nobel laureates and scientists. Geoffrey Hinton, often called the “godfather of AI” and a 2024 Nobel Prize winner in Physics for foundational work on neural networks, has raised the odds of artificial intelligence causing human extinction to 10-20 percent within the next 30 years. Michel Mayor, the 2019 Nobel laureate who discovered the first exoplanet orbiting a sun-like star, has stated that humanity is not eternal but simply another animal species destined for extinction, potentially within a million years from natural causes alone, and far sooner if human folly intervenes.

Gross’s perspective stands out for its focus on the intersection of fundamental physics and human survival. A unified theory has eluded physicists since Einstein’s unsuccessful attempts at a unified field theory. String theory, loop quantum gravity and other approaches offer promising frameworks, but experimental verification remains extraordinarily difficult because the energies required to probe quantum gravity effects are far beyond current particle accelerators. Gross noted that even optimistic timelines for theoretical breakthroughs could be rendered moot by humanity’s inability to avoid catastrophe.

The physicist did not dismiss all hope. He expressed a desire for international cooperation to reduce nuclear arsenals and mitigate other existential risks, including climate change, pandemics and uncontrolled artificial intelligence. “If you don’t [address these risks], there’s always some risk an AI 100 years from now [could launch nuclear weapons],” he observed, underscoring how multiple threats compound one another.

Public reaction to Gross’s interview has been swift and polarized. On social media platforms and science forums, some users praised the laureate for speaking candidly about uncomfortable truths, arguing that complacency about existential risks has become dangerous. Others criticized the comments as overly alarmist or defeatist, suggesting they could undermine efforts to solve pressing problems by fostering fatalism. Science communicators noted that such warnings from respected figures often serve to galvanize action rather than induce despair.

Experts in existential risk studies have long catalogued the threats Gross referenced. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists maintains its Doomsday Clock, which in recent years has stood close to midnight due to nuclear dangers, climate disruption and emerging technologies. Organizations such as the Future of Humanity Institute and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at Cambridge University have modeled scenarios in which nuclear winter, engineered pandemics or misaligned superintelligent AI could lead to human extinction or civilizational collapse.

Gross’s career lends weight to his assessment. As a towering figure in theoretical physics, he has witnessed firsthand how scientific progress depends on stable societies capable of sustaining long-term research. Particle physics collaborations such as those at CERN involve thousands of scientists across dozens of nations and require decades of funding and political support. A major war or societal breakdown could shatter that infrastructure, halting progress indefinitely.

Yet the quest for unification continues. Researchers are exploring connections between string theory and holography, advances in quantum computing that might simulate quantum gravity effects, and new observational windows through gravitational wave astronomy and cosmic microwave background studies. Gross himself remains active in the field, though he now balances theoretical work with public advocacy for risk reduction.

The broader context includes accelerating technological change. Artificial intelligence is transforming scientific discovery, potentially speeding up theoretical breakthroughs while simultaneously introducing new dangers. Climate models warn of tipping points that could render large parts of the planet uninhabitable within decades. Biodiversity loss and resource depletion compound these pressures.

Gross stopped short of predicting exact timelines or probabilities beyond his qualitative assessment, but his message was clear: humanity’s greatest obstacle to scientific immortality may be its own mortality as a species. He urged greater investment in diplomacy, arms control, sustainable development and ethical governance of emerging technologies.

For physicists dreaming of a final theory that explains the universe from the smallest scales to the largest, the warning carries particular poignancy. The unification of forces has been called the holy grail of physics. Achieving it would represent one of humanity’s crowning intellectual achievements, potentially unlocking new technologies and deeper understanding of reality itself. Gross suggested that realizing that dream may depend less on brilliant equations than on collective wisdom and restraint.

As the interview circulates widely, it joins a chorus of voices from the scientific community urging humanity to confront its fragility. Whether Gross’s pessimism proves prophetic or serves as a catalyst for renewed global cooperation remains to be seen. For now, his words stand as a sobering reminder that the biggest questions in physics may ultimately hinge on the oldest challenge facing humankind: learning to live together without destroying ourselves.

In laboratories and lecture halls around the world, researchers continue their work, driven by curiosity and the hope that humanity will endure long enough to glimpse the deepest secrets of the cosmos. Gross’s warning challenges them — and all of society — to ensure that hope is justified.