Shares of Advanced Micro Devices climbed more than 5% Tuesday morning, trading at $509.31 as of 9:38 a.m. Eastern time, as investors positioned themselves ahead of one of the most closely watched earnings reports of the season, due after the market closes.
AMD is scheduled to release its second-quarter 2026 results Tuesday afternoon, a report analysts widely view as a critical test of investor confidence in the broader artificial-intelligence chip sector following a recent stretch of volatility across semiconductor stocks.
What Wall Street expects
Analysts surveyed by Wall Street firms are looking for AMD to report revenue of roughly $11.28 billion to $11.3 billion, up sharply from $7.68 billion in the same quarter a year earlier, representing year-over-year growth of about 46% to 47%. On the earnings side, consensus estimates call for adjusted earnings per share in the range of $1.55 to $1.62, compared with 48 cents in the year-ago period, reflecting growth of more than 235%.
AMD itself has guided toward second-quarter revenue of $11.2 billion, plus or minus $300 million. The company has topped Wall Street’s revenue estimates in each of its past several quarters, with an average earnings surprise of roughly 6.5%, according to Zacks Investment Research, giving investors some reason for confidence heading into Tuesday’s report even amid broader market caution around AI-related spending.
A strong year with a recent pullback
AMD’s stock has surged more than 120% year-to-date and climbed roughly 194% over the past 12 months, according to differing measurement periods cited by various analysts, driven largely by surging demand for the company’s data center processors and AI accelerator chips. Even so, the stock has pulled back meaningfully from its 52-week high of $584.73, falling as much as 27.7% at one point from its June peak as broader semiconductor stocks cooled following a massive run-up earlier in the year.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a broad gauge of chip stock performance, had climbed more than 100% over the trailing 12 months before pausing around mid-June, with the group dropping roughly 20% in the weeks since as investors grew more selective about which AI-related companies could sustain their growth trajectories.
What analysts are watching most closely
Beyond the headline revenue and earnings figures, analysts say the most important elements of Tuesday’s report will center on AMD’s AI accelerator business, specifically shipment volumes for its MI350 chips and any quantifiable customer orders for its new Helios rack-scale AI systems, which the company has said will begin shipping to customers, including Microsoft, in the second half of this year.
Gross margin performance is also expected to draw close scrutiny. Consensus estimates project AMD’s full-year 2026 gross margin reaching close to 56%, up from 52% in 2025, though the company’s chief financial officer, Jean Hu, has previously flagged that the ramp-up of Helios systems could create near-term margin pressure, as AMD’s early Instinct GPU systems have run below the company’s overall average margin.
AMD’s first-quarter results, released in early May, offered a preview of the kind of reaction Tuesday’s report could generate. That quarter saw revenue climb 38% year-over-year to $10.25 billion, comfortably beating analyst expectations of $9.85 billion, while adjusted earnings per share rose 43% to $1.37, also ahead of consensus estimates. The stock jumped nearly 19% in the session immediately following that report, driven largely by record-setting server market share within AMD’s data center segment.
Recent analyst moves reflect optimism
Heading into Tuesday’s results, several Wall Street firms have raised their price targets on AMD in recent days. Susquehanna lifted its forecast to $500 in late July, while Mizuho and Wedbush both raised their targets to $625 and $600, respectively, around the same time. The average analyst price forecast for the stock currently sits near $582, according to data compiled by Benzinga, with the stock carrying an overall consensus Buy rating. Separately, 24/7 Wall St. has set its own 12-month price target at roughly $564, implying meaningful additional upside from recent trading levels.
A broader AI market opportunity
AMD’s growth story has increasingly centered on the expanding market for AI server infrastructure, a segment some analysts project could grow nearly sixfold between 2024 and 2030, reaching an estimated $838 billion in annual revenue by the end of the decade. The company’s expanding partnership with Microsoft, which has committed to using additional AMD Epyc server processors and increasing its adoption of AMD’s Pensando networking chips within Azure’s cloud infrastructure, has been cited by several analysts as a key factor that could support stronger-than-expected results heading into Tuesday’s report.
AMD’s push into rack-scale AI systems, designed to let major server manufacturers deploy AMD’s chips more easily at scale, represents a significant strategic shift for the company as it looks to capture a larger share of the AI infrastructure market currently dominated by rival Nvidia.
Tuesday’s advance in AMD shares appeared to reflect broader improving risk appetite across the market rather than a specific company catalyst ahead of the report, according to market analysts, coming as the stock rebounded from a recent slide below its short-term moving averages and approached a key technical support level near $498. With earnings due after the closing bell, investors will be watching closely for management’s guidance on the pace of the Helios ramp and broader AI chip demand, factors analysts say could matter more to the stock’s trajectory in the months ahead than the specific revenue and earnings figures reported for the just-completed quarter.
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