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Eli Lilly gaining in GLP-1 market over Novo Nordisk, earnings show

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Eli Lilly gaining in GLP-1 market over Novo Nordisk, earnings show

The Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk logos.

Mike Blake | Tom Little | Reuters

It’s a tale of two drugmakers in the red-hot obesity drug market. 

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Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are grappling with lower prices in the U.S., but their 2026 outlooks are diverging sharply: While Novo is bracing for a sales decline, Lilly sees revenue jumping again thanks to its blockbuster medicines. 

The split in guidance — despite similar headwinds — underscores the strength of Lilly’s position in the obesity and diabetes drug market, underpinned by its more effective injections and early foray into direct-to-consumer sales, among other factors. While Novo Nordisk effectively made the drugs mainstream, Lilly has since taken a clear edge in market share — and the forecasts show it will likely only extend its advantage this year.

“The difference in sales momentum and market share trend was visible throughout 2025, but the dichotomy between the two companies’ prospects was accentuated within this 24-hour period in which Novo guided below consensus and Lilly guided above consensus expectations,”  Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger told CNBC on Wednesday. 

“That really solidified an investor’s mind that Lilly is going to be the dominant player in obesity going forward,” he added. 

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This year, all eyes will be on how Lilly’s upcoming obesity pill, orforglipron, fares against Novo’s own oral Wegovy drug, which has had an explosive U.S. launch this year.

In an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday, Lilly CEO David Ricks said 20 million to 25 million patients are currently taking both companies’ medicines. But he said the total addressable market of patients in the obesity space is “gigantic.” 

Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks on Q4 results: We're the market leader in both diabetes and obesity now

Diverging outlooks

On Wednesday, Lilly forecasted 2026 sales of $80 billion to $83 billion, surpassing the $77.62 billion that analysts were expecting, according to LSEG. 

The midpoint of that outlook translates to sales growing by 25% this year.

In contrast, Novo warned on Tuesday that it sees sales and profit declining by 5% to 13% this year, as prices fall in the U.S. and exclusivity expires for its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs in China, Brazil and Canada. 

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Mike Doustdar, left, CEO of Novo Nordisk, and David Ricks, CEO of Eli Lilly, listen as President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office during an event about weight-loss drugs on Nov. 6, 2025.

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images

Lilly similarly pointed to a “global pricing decline in the low- to mid- teens [percentages] this year.” That comes after the landmark “most favored nation” deals both companies struck with President Donald Trump in November to slash obesity and diabetes drug costs, along with their recent efforts to further reduce direct-to-consumer prices for their treatments. 

The agreements with Trump are expected to take a bite out of both companies’ sales, but eventually increase volumes of prescriptions for their drugs. Still, Lilly is bullish about other factors that will help offset that pricing pressure. 

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That includes continued worldwide demand for its obesity drug Zepbound and diabetes counterpart Mounjaro and the expected launch of its GLP-1 pill for obesity in the second quarter, pending U.S. approval. Lilly also pointed to government Medicare coverage of obesity treatments starting for the first time by at least July, one of the winning features of the drug pricing deals with Trump. 

Lilly’s Ricks told CNBC that coverage will open up access to 40 million new Medicare beneficiaries, “and that could be quite expansive to volume.”

Overall, Risinger called Lilly’s guidance “very encouraging” and said the “price per volume trade-off is playing out well” for the company.

He said tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Zepbound and Mounjaro, is “superior” in its effectiveness and tolerability compared to semaglutide, the ingredient in Novo’s obesity and diabetes drugs. That was proven in a head-to-head clinical trial conducted by Lilly in 2024, and prescription trends show that the company’s drugs are preferred among prescribers.  

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“I think that’s what is driving Lilly’s market share gain” relative to Novo, Risinger said. 

Another factor that sets Lilly and Novo apart is patent exclusivity. While Novo said expiring patents in some international markets pose a challenge, Lilly’s Ricks said tirzepatide should be protected into “the back half of the 2030s” in major markets. 

Risinger noted that Lilly is still working to drive global uptake for tirzepatide, which won U.S. approval for obesity in 2023. 

All eyes on pills

A pharmacist displays a box of Wegovy pills at a pharmacy in Provo, Utah, Jan. 15, 2026.

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George Frey | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Novo Nordisk is first to market with a GLP-1 pill for obesity, and it hit 50,000 weekly prescriptions in just under three weeks of its launch. But investors are watching to see how that shifts once Lilly’s pill rolls out to patients later this year. 

In an interview with CNBC’s “Mad Money,” Novo CEO Mike Doustdar said he’s confident about the company’s ability to compete with Lilly. 

“Clearly we have the most efficacious weight-reduction pill that there is and I’m very optimistic and bullish on when they come with their pill and we have to battle this out,” Doustdar said. 

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He’s referring to clinical trial data suggesting that Novo’s Wegovy pill promotes comparable weight loss to its injectable counterpart, which is around 15%. Meanwhile, Lilly’s pill appears to be slightly less effective than that, based on separate study data. 

Risinger said the launch of Novo’s pill has benefited from the fact that the company is leveraging the Wegovy brand name, which is recognizable by many patients, and immediately launched direct-to-consumer advertising for the product in early January. 

But he said Lilly could capitalize on its pill’s convenience advantage. 

Orforglipron is a small-molecule drug that is absorbed more easily in the body and doesn’t require dietary restrictions like Novo Nordisk’s pill, which is a peptide medication. Patients are supposed to drink no more than four ounces of water with the Wegovy pill and must wait 30 minutes before eating or drinking anything else each day. 

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Novo contends that those requirements won’t hinder uptake, but Risinger said it could help Lilly’s pill eventually generate greater sales globally. 

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Property tech firm Openmoove looking to scale on equity round boost

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It has secured backing in a round led by the Development Bank of Wales

Left to right: Cai Gwinnutt, co-founder of Openmoove; Mike Rees, Investment Executive at the Development Bank of Wales; Ross McKenzie, CEO and co-founder of Openmoove.

Cardiff-based property tech venture Openmoove is looking to scale-up following a £700,000 equity investment round boost.

The tech start-up has secured £350,000 equity from the £20m Wales Technology Fund, managed by the Development Bank of Wales, matched with a £335,000 investment from early-stage venture firm, HAATCH and a group of Welsh angel investors. The deal marks the second time HAATCH and the Development Bank have invested together.

Founded in 2024 by Ross McKenzie and Cai Gwinnutt, Openmoove has developed a business to business platform designed to streamline the workflows of estate agents, conveyancers and mortgage brokers, helping reduce administration, improve communication and make property transactions easier to manage for all parties involved.

It has spent the last 18 months building and refining its product, testing it with early customers and securing commercial interest from major estate agency groups and conveyancers. The investment will now enable the business to scale up its team, accelerate market activity and roll out the platform more widely.

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The funding is expected to create six jobs in Cardiff in the coming months. Chief executive Mr McKenzie brings extensive experience in the property sector, having held senior roles at Purplebricks and Countrywide before founding Cardiff-based estate agency Isla-Alexander. The firm’s chief technology officer Mr Gwinnutt, brings 20 years of experience across start-ups and engineering, with previous roles including OnExamination, Amplyfi, Cyber Innovation Hub and Tramshed Tech.

Mr McKenzie said:“We’ve spent the last 18 months building the product, working closely with estate agents, conveyancers and mortgage brokers, and proving there is real demand for a better way to manage the property transaction process. This investment gives us the backing to scale up, build our team in Cardiff and start rolling the platform out more widely.

“We’re proud to be building Openmoove in Wales. This is a Welsh business, founded by two people who have grown up and built their careers here, and we’re excited to be creating jobs in Cardiff as we move into the next phase of growth.”

Mr Gwinnutt added:“Our focus has been on creating technology that fits around the systems professionals already use, rather than forcing them to change behaviour or adopt a completely new way of working. We’ve developed a market-ready product, tested it with early customers and are now in a strong position to accelerate our growth.“This funding allows us to keep building with intent — expanding the team, strengthening the platform and taking a product that will improve the way property transactions happen.”

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Mike Rees, investment executive at the Development Bank of Wales, said: “Ross and Cai have combined deep sector knowledge with strong technical expertise to build a compelling platform in a large and important market. They have made significant progress in a short space of time, developing the product, securing early commercial interest and setting out a clear route to growth.

“Our investment from the Wales Technology Fund will help Openmoove scale from Cardiff, create new jobs and build on the commercial foundations already in place. It is also encouraging to be investing alongside HAATCH again, demonstrating the value of co-investment in supporting ambitious Welsh businesses with high-growth potential.”

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Earnings call transcript: PepsiCo exceeds Q1 2026 forecasts with strong revenue growth

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Earnings call transcript: PepsiCo exceeds Q1 2026 forecasts with strong revenue growth

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General Mills emphasizes key nutrients in US products

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General Mills emphasizes key nutrients in US products

Annual sustainability report also covers supply chain and packaging.

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PPG Industries: Price Hikes Will Help Stabilize Margins

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PPG Industries: Price Hikes Will Help Stabilize Margins

PPG Industries: Price Hikes Will Help Stabilize Margins

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Coal India, NMDC emerge as must-watch mining plays as spot prices surge, says Motilal Oswal’s Siddhartha Khemka

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Coal India, NMDC emerge as must-watch mining plays as spot prices surge, says Motilal Oswal's Siddhartha Khemka
India’s mining and metals sectors are flashing opportunity signals, with spot price surges in coal and iron ore creating a compelling earnings catalyst for Coal India and NMDC, according to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at brokerage firm Motilal Oswal.

“Coal India is expected to see a 6% QoQ volume growth while NMDC is likely to see a strong 20% QoQ volume growth,” Khemka told ET Now, adding that rising e-auction premiums stand to materially boost Coal India’s profitability. The stock is his preferred pick within the mining space, underpinned by a structural demand thesis: India’s thermal power requirements are set to climb sharply, driven by an expected intense summer season and the longer-term electricity appetite of AI infrastructure and data centres.

Motilal is pencilling in approximately 9% sequential revenue growth for the sector, with realisations improving by Rs 4,000–5,000 per tonne on a sequential basis. Hot-rolled coil prices are seen rising by Rs 6,700 per tonne and rebars by Rs 10,000 per tonne. Base industrial metals are the standout performers — aluminium and copper are tracking 13%–16% sequential improvement, supported by constrained supply and robust global demand. Chinese export prices and EU prices have also firmed, with the latter up around 9% sequentially.

Within non-ferrous metals, Khemka singles out Nalco, citing strong alumina volumes, higher alumina prices, a debt-free balance sheet, and a multi-year capacity expansion roadmap. On the ferrous side, Jindal Stainless earns a place in his portfolio for its shift toward higher value-added products and its exposure to firming nickel prices. Alongside Coal India, these three names constitute his metals picks for the current cycle.

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Banking: The Tide Turns Toward Private

The Q4 earnings season is set to expose a widening gulf between India’s private and public sector banks. Khemka projects aggregate earnings growth of roughly 12% year-on-year for private banks, against a meagre 2% for their PSU counterparts, a gap he attributes squarely to base effects and the NIM recovery dynamic now unfolding.
With the Reserve Bank of India having held rates steady, banks that spent much of the last financial year passing on cuts to borrowers are beginning to see margins stabilise and recover. “With the status quo maintained, they will be able to see a stronger NIM improvement,” Khemka said.
SBI remains Motilal Oswal’s top pick in the large-bank space. Khemka forecasts a 13% earnings CAGR over the next two to three years, with return on assets of 1.1% and return on equity of approximately 16% — all while the stock continues to trade at a meaningful discount to HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. “Despite the ups and downs in the market, in the industry, in the environment, SBI has been delivering on a consistent basis,” he said.
ICICI Bank follows closely. After a period of valuation-driven caution, a time correction in the stock has brought multiples to more comfortable levels. Khemka sees domestic loan growth of around 12%, steady NIMs of approximately 4.3%, and best-in-class asset quality supporting a re-rating toward 2.2 times one-year forward adjusted price-to-book, up from current levels near 1.8 times.

Also read: Ola Electric vs Ather Energy: Which stock looks better after a stellar surge of up to 70% in April?

Autos Rev Higher; Consumption Stays Mixed

The auto sector delivered a strong Q4 on volumes, with the overall segment clocking 23% growth. Tractors led at 33%, followed by two-wheelers at 25% and commercial vehicles at 22%, the latter benefiting from a cyclical recovery. Passenger vehicles lagged at 15%. Input cost pressures are a headwind, but Khemka remains bullish on two-wheelers, tractors, and CVs as the three sub-segments to watch.

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Within consumption, jewellery has proven resilient despite gold’s sharp rally, making Titan its top pick in discretionary. Radico Khaitan is expected to deliver strong numbers in the liquor space. Among staples, Marico screens well. Quick-service restaurants show early signs of recovery but face near-term uncertainty from LPG supply disruptions.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Hershey US president to leave next month

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Hershey US president to leave next month

Andrew Archambault pursuing another opportunity, chocolate and snack maker says.

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US Air Force Boldly Reveals B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber, Mocking Iranian Radar Defenses

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Intuitive Machines

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Air Force released striking new images of its next-generation B-21 Raider stealth bomber in midair refueling this week, a dramatic public display that comes amid heightened tensions with Iran and underscores America’s advancing long-range strike capabilities.

US Air Force Boldly Reveals B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber, Mocking
US Air Force Boldly Reveals B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber, Mocking Iranian Radar Defenses

The photographs, shared Tuesday by the Air Force and analyzed widely by defense observers, offer the first clear overhead view of the B-21 Raider during aerial refueling with a KC-135 Stratotanker. The images highlight the aircraft’s sleek flying-wing design, refueling receptacle and subtle exhaust features, showcasing its advanced low-observable technology designed to evade even sophisticated enemy air defenses.

Military analysts and Korean media outlets quickly dubbed the B-21 “the sky’s assassin that laughs at radar,” framing the release as a deliberate show of force directed at adversaries like Iran following recent U.S. operations in the region. The timing amplifies the message: while the B-21 has not yet entered combat, its predecessor, the B-2 Spirit, played a pivotal role in striking deeply into Iranian territory during Operation Epic Fury.

The B-21 Raider, developed by Northrop Grumman, represents the first new American bomber in decades and is engineered as a dual-capable platform able to deliver both conventional and nuclear weapons. Smaller and more affordable than the B-2, the Raider is intended to form the backbone of the Air Force’s future bomber fleet, with plans calling for at least 100 aircraft and discussions of expanding to 145.

Recent flight testing milestones, including successful aerial refueling near Edwards Air Force Base in California, mark significant progress. The new overhead imagery reveals details that differentiate the B-21 from its larger predecessor, such as refined shaping and surface treatments aimed at further reducing its radar cross-section. Defense experts note that these features could allow the Raider to penetrate contested airspace with even greater impunity than the B-2.

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The public reveal coincides with accelerated production efforts. In February and March 2026, the Air Force and Northrop Grumman finalized a $4.5 billion agreement to boost annual production capacity by approximately 25%. The move compresses delivery timelines while preserving cost and performance targets, driven in part by the demands of great-power competition and recent conflicts.

First operational B-21 Raiders are still slated for delivery to Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota in 2027, though senior officials have signaled urgency. U.S. Strategic Command leaders have advocated for a larger fleet and even a potential second production line to meet emerging threats from Iran, China and Russia.

The B-21’s development has benefited from lessons learned in actual operations. During strikes against Iranian hardened targets and underground facilities, B-2 bombers demonstrated the unmatched value of stealth platforms in modern warfare. Operating without losses, the Spirits delivered precision munitions against heavily defended sites, proving that penetrating bombers remain essential even against integrated air defense systems.

Iranian officials have long boasted about their radar networks and anti-access capabilities, yet the B-2’s success exposed vulnerabilities. The B-21, with its improved stealth, networked systems and potentially lower operating costs, is positioned to exploit those gaps more effectively in future scenarios.

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Air Force officials have been cautious about linking the new images directly to any specific adversary. However, the bold release of high-resolution photos — including the first full top-down perspective — sends a clear strategic signal at a time when regional tensions persist.

The Raider program remains highly classified, with many performance details withheld. What is known is that the aircraft builds on the B-2’s flying-wing configuration but incorporates modern manufacturing techniques, open-system architecture for easier upgrades and enhanced survivability features.

Test flights have ramped up in recent months. Multiple B-21 airframes are now involved in the program, with at least two aircraft conducting flights from Palmdale, California, and Edwards AFB. The recent refueling tests validate the bomber’s ability to extend its already impressive range, critical for global power projection without relying solely on forward bases.

Cost remains a key focus. Each B-21 is projected to cost significantly less than the B-2, which ran over $2 billion per aircraft in adjusted dollars. The Air Force aims to keep unit costs around $700 million or lower in current dollars, making the Raider more sustainable for a larger fleet.

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Production acceleration comes as the broader bomber force faces strain. The Air Force’s current fleet of B-52s, B-1s and B-2s is aging, with the B-2 fleet particularly small at just 20 operational aircraft. The B-21 is designed not only to replace retiring bombers but to complement them in high-end conflicts.

Defense analysts say the images serve multiple purposes: reassuring allies, deterring potential aggressors and building public and congressional support for the program. In an era of rapid technological change, demonstrating tangible progress on a sixth-generation platform carries psychological weight.

Korean-language coverage, including headlines calling the B-21 the “radar-mocking sky assassin” that appeared defiantly before Iran, reflects global interest in how the aircraft could reshape deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and Middle East. South Korea and other U.S. partners view advanced American stealth capabilities as vital to countering regional threats.

Northrop Grumman has released limited additional details, emphasizing the aircraft’s maturation through ground and flight testing. Company executives have expressed confidence in meeting the 2027 initial operational capability target at Ellsworth.

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Challenges remain. Integrating the B-21 into existing force structures, developing tactics for its unique capabilities and ensuring supply chain resilience for stealth materials will require sustained effort. The program has faced typical developmental hurdles, though officials describe progress as on track.

The new photographs also fuel speculation about future combat roles. With greater automation potential and improved sensor fusion, the Raider could one day operate alongside unmanned systems in collaborative combat aircraft concepts.

As testing continues, the Air Force plans further public and congressional briefings. The service has stressed that while the B-21 enhances conventional deterrence, it also bolsters the nuclear triad’s credibility.

The timing of the imagery release — just days after intense media focus on stealth operations in the Iran conflict — has not gone unnoticed. Some observers interpret it as psychological messaging: America’s stealth edge is not static but evolving rapidly.

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Iranian state media has downplayed the significance, claiming its own air defenses and asymmetric capabilities would counter any new American bomber. However, the proven performance of the B-2 has already forced adversaries to reassess their strategies.

U.S. lawmakers from both parties have largely supported the B-21 program, viewing it as essential national security investment. Recent budget actions, including the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill,” provided the funding flex needed to ramp up production without new appropriations fights.

Looking ahead, the Raider’s entry into service will mark a generational shift in bomber aviation. Its ability to loiter undetected, strike with precision and return safely could redefine how the U.S. projects power in an era of anti-access/area-denial threats.

For now, the sleek black silhouette captured against the sky during refueling serves as a potent reminder of ongoing American technological superiority in the air domain. As one defense commentator noted, the B-21 doesn’t just evade radar — in the eyes of adversaries, it appears to mock it.

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The Air Force continues to withhold exact performance metrics, but the visual evidence of successful refueling and the accelerated production schedule suggest the “sky’s assassin” is steadily approaching operational reality.

With global tensions unlikely to ease soon, the B-21 Raider’s development carries strategic weight far beyond its airframe. It embodies a commitment to maintaining air dominance and long-range strike options well into the 21st century.

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Prime Minister announces new fuel supplies

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Extra 100 million litres of diesel secured

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has revealed his visits to Brunei and South Korea have secured 100 million litres of additional diesel for Australia.

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Review: Six of the best from Henschke

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Review: Six of the best from Henschke

REVIEW: Eden Valley vineyard keeps delivering the goods, with the 2022 vintage a standout.

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WAFarmers warns Elders' WA wool sale retreat ‘tip of the iceberg’

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WAFarmers warns Elders' WA wool sale retreat ‘tip of the iceberg’

WAFarmers has warned Elders’ retreat from selling Western Australian wool locally is the first domino in the sector’s supply chain to fall as the federal government’s live export ban looms.

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