Business
ETMarkets Smart Talk | Only 16% IPOs beat market returns; be selective, says Ajay Tyagi who follows Warren Buffett
Even as retail participation surges and SME issues draw heavy subscription, data suggests that only a small fraction of companies actually outperform the broader market over time.
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Ajay Tyagi, Head – Equities at UTI AMC, and a self-confessed follower of Warren Buffett’s investing philosophy, cautions investors against getting swept up in IPO euphoria.
Backed by two decades of market experience and historical data, Tyagi highlights that barely 16% of IPOs have managed to beat long-term market returns — reinforcing Buffett’s timeless principle that patience and selectivity, not excitement, create sustainable wealth. Edited Excerpts –
Kshitij Anand: To start with, I would like to begin with the big event that took place — Budget 2026. How do you see the Budget in terms of what the government could have done? We saw a knee-jerk reaction on Budget day, with the Sensex dropping 1,500 points. Were markets expecting more, and did the government under-deliver? What are your views on that?
Ajay Tyagi: As far as the Budget is concerned, the expectation was that there would be some consumer-related push — that was the broad market expectation. However, the government is walking a tightrope. It has to keep the fiscal deficit in check and has already committed to rating agencies and global investors that it will adhere to the fiscal glide path. This means that every year, the deficit has to be reduced — even if the reduction is small, it must be in that direction.
Another point investors may have overlooked is that last year, the government forewent a significant chunk of revenue — first by reducing direct taxes, i.e., personal income tax rates, and second, in October, by rationalising GST and effectively reducing indirect taxes. Both were substantial measures.
So, it was prudent for the government not to expand spending and reverse the fiscal glide path. While investors on the street may have expected more, a rational investor like us viewed it as a welcome move. Perhaps that is why markets stabilised the very next day.
Since we are talking about expectations, I must also mention the upcoming 8th Pay Commission, for which the government will soon have to make provisions. The payout is expected to be significant. Therefore, it was only prudent for the government not to commit to additional measures after already implementing the tax cuts and with the Pay Commission obligations ahead.
Kshitij Anand: We have also seen a trend where every piece of bad news — whether geopolitical concerns or other setbacks — is being absorbed quite well by the market, with quick reversals. Do you see more room for downside from here?
Ajay Tyagi: Our view is that there is room for downside, and this is purely based on valuations. We analyse largecaps, midcaps, and smallcaps separately.There is relative comfort in largecaps. Our analysis suggests that while they are expensive, they are not excessively so. Perhaps another 5% to 10% correction — either in price or through time correction — could bring them back into a comfortable zone.
However, the same cannot be said for midcaps and smallcaps. They are still trading significantly above their long-term averages. Yes, there has been some price correction in smallcaps and a bit in midcaps, along with some time correction. But the reality is that current valuations for both midcaps and smallcaps are higher than their previous peaks over the last 15 years. I am not even referring to their long-term averages — their valuations today exceed their previous highs.
This will have to correct. I do not know what form it will take — whether it will be purely time correction or a combination of price and time. Our assessment is that it will likely be a mix of both.
Therefore, we remain cautious on midcaps and smallcaps, despite the fact that mutual funds are sitting on cash and any selling in the market is seen as a buying opportunity. I have been in the industry for 26 years, and UTI has been present in the markets for 60 years. Our collective experience suggests that whenever valuations overshoot, they eventually revert — notwithstanding any interim technical support.
So yes, we would advise investors to wait for better entry points in midcaps and smallcaps.
Kshitij Anand: A very interesting point you mentioned is the kind of money that mutual funds are receiving — more than ₹31,000 crore month after month. That is phenomenal. From your perspective, how do you view this number?
Ajay Tyagi: First of all, we must fully appreciate the fact that there has been what we call the financialisation of savings. In our parents’ generation, the go-to asset classes were gold, perhaps real estate when there was a large lump sum to invest, and within financial assets, largely bank deposits or fixed deposits, or bonds issued by institutions like ICICI, IDBI, and even UTI.
That has changed significantly over the last 10–15 years. Investors are realising the importance of equity investment. Therefore, mutual funds as an asset class are now front and centre in every household. That is point number one — this is structural and will continue to grow.
We often examine mutual fund penetration in India. To give you a number, mutual fund assets as a percentage of GDP are still around 20%. In the US, the number is over 100%. I am not suggesting that we will reach US levels anytime soon, but even the global average is around 50% to 60%. So, we are below the world average. Structurally, mutual funds will continue to grow.
However, there is always a cyclical element. You have been in the markets long enough to know that when markets perform well, most investors tend to be backward-looking. They look at returns from the last three to five years, get excited, and invest more. So, the surge in SIPs and overall flows — surprising even us as mutual fund participants — is partly due to this cyclical element, with investors extrapolating recent strong returns into the next five years.
There could be some dip in these SIP numbers. I would not be surprised by that, even though the structural trend remains upward, albeit with some cyclicality along the way.
Kshitij Anand: Let me also get your perspective on sectors. We have just started 2026 — new beginnings — and the Budget has also been announced, giving some direction on how government policies may play out over the next 12 months. Are there any sectors you are looking at that could hog the limelight?
Ajay Tyagi: I will mention two sectors that we believe could provide very good opportunities for investors.
The first is the consumption sector. There are two or three reasons for this. The government is aware that private consumption expenditure (PCE) in India has been trending below par. Over the last four to five years, the heavy lifting for GDP growth has been done by government spending on infrastructure. There has been a strong capex push in certain sectors, which has supported GDP growth.
However, consumption growth has been relatively weak. The government recognises this because personal consumption accounts for roughly 65% of India’s GDP. If that does not pick up, growth becomes a challenge.
To support this, we have seen income tax cuts, which, give or take, have put about $11–12 billion into the hands of households. GST rationalisation has added another $20–23 billion. In total, around $35 billion has been infused into household pockets. In the context of a $4 trillion GDP, that is close to 1% — not an insignificant number.
We believe this should start reflecting in improved consumption trends over the coming quarters. Additionally, the upcoming Pay Commission — which occurs every 10 years — is another positive factor. Historically, when Pay Commission payouts have reached households, the following 12 to 18 months have seen strong consumption trends.
Lastly, even though consumption is structural in India given our low per capita income, it is also cyclical. The last three to four years have been relatively weak for consumption. None of us believe India is fully penetrated in categories such as cars, two-wheelers, dining out, and similar segments. These sectors still have a long runway. From this relatively weak base, we expect better cyclical trends in the coming years. All these factors combined make us positive on consumption.
The second sector may be more controversial — you might raise an eyebrow — but we are positive on IT.
We spend considerable time analysing whether AI will be net negative or net positive for the IT industry. Our conclusion continues to be reinforced that AI will be net positive over the medium to long term.
Could it be disruptive in the short run? Yes. But over time, it is likely to be net positive. Historically, every new technology has initially disrupted IT services players. When mainframes emerged in the 1960s and 70s, people thought computing would replace human involvement. During the rise of remote infrastructure management in the 2000s, there were concerns that IT services staff would no longer be needed on-site. Around a decade ago, when cloud computing gained traction, people questioned the need for on-premise software and related services.
However, history over the past 60–70 years shows that new technologies tend to be net additive, not dilutive. It is incumbent upon IT services companies to continually train and retrain their workforce. This time, the focus must be on AI tools.
The winners and losers will be determined by which companies are agile enough to train their workforce and become AI-ready. But on an aggregate basis, we are positive and are looking for players who will be on the right side of the AI revolution.
Kshitij Anand: In fact, my next question is also around IT, and you seem to be a contra buyer at this point in time. AI as a keyword is now prevalent across all sectors, not just IT, but also in financials and manufacturing. Recently, we saw data where Charles Schwab tanked about 7%, and wealth management firms seem to be slightly nervous about what might happen next because of AI’s impact on taxation documents and related areas. This is an evolving space, and I am sure over time it will help industries integrate AI, leverage the technology, and benefit customers. But how are you seeing it?
Ajay Tyagi: You have raised a very topical question. Let me share my thought process. I am actually surprised that people are punishing IT companies for exactly what you just mentioned.
Who was handling tax filings earlier? Who was preparing legal documents earlier? Let me extend that further. People say AI will do everything and may eat into the jobs of analysts, especially mundane tasks. I agree with that. But who were the people doing this work earlier? At the lower end, it was lawyers, articled assistants working for tax consultants, young CAs working for firms, or junior analysts doing routine work.
Yes, AI may replace some of these roles. But is that net positive or net negative for technology? These were non-tech jobs being replaced by technology. In the future, when you need to file taxes, you may not go to a consultant — you may use software instead. That actually expands the domain of technology rather than reduces it.
That is why I go back to history. Over the last 70 years, has technological evolution been net additive or net dilutive? It has consistently been net additive. This is another instance where people may be replaced by technology, but whenever technology expands, the total addressable market for IT services increases — it does not shrink.
So, in a way, the answer lies in the question itself. This will likely expand the total addressable market for technology companies and, therefore, for the IT services firms associated with them.
Kshitij Anand: Let us also get some perspective on the other segment. We have discussed largecaps, but what about mid and smallcaps? We have seen some correction, but data suggests they are still trading above long-term averages. What is your view?
Ajay Tyagi: You are absolutely right, and we completely concur with that view. They are trading at a premium — in fact, significantly above their long-term averages. It is not just a 10%, 15%, or 20% premium; in some cases, the premium is 40% to 50%. That is what keeps us cautious and somewhat concerned about this segment of the market.
That is why our advice to investors has been to tilt toward largecap-oriented categories. It could be a pure largecap fund, a flexicap fund, or a large-and-midcap category — but with higher allocation to largecaps and lower exposure to mid and smallcaps.
While we believe largecaps may normalise within this calendar year, I remain sceptical about saying the same for mid and smallcaps. The correction and consolidation there could take longer.
Kshitij Anand: Let us also talk about earnings. Since valuations are a concern, earnings form a significant part of that equation. Do you think the December quarter results have given us confidence that earnings are improving? With the trade deal and tariff changes — initially at 50% and now reduced to 18% — it may not significantly boost earnings, especially after reading the fine print. How do you see the earnings cycle at this point? Is that one of the reasons you believe there is room for further correction?
Ajay Tyagi: Before I answer that, I want to add one clarification to my previous point. While we remain cautious about mid and smallcaps broadly, I do not want to imply that in a universe of, say, 400 mid and smallcap stocks, there are no worthwhile opportunities. There could be a couple of dozen companies that still offer favourable risk-reward. Our job is to identify those. My comment was about the broader category.
Now, on earnings — India’s exports to the US account for slightly below 2% of GDP. When we saw the 50% tariff that lasted for about six months, we did some back-of-the-envelope calculations. The potential impact on GDP growth was around 40–50 basis points, and on earnings growth, perhaps a couple of percentage points.
So, it was not as if GDP or earnings were going to be dramatically affected. However, sentimentally, it was negative. Investors were puzzled, given that India was seen as a close ally and a “China-plus-one” beneficiary. The uncertainty made it difficult for investors, and that partly explains the FII outflows we saw between August and January.
Hopefully, that sentiment reverses now that the outlook is improving.
On earnings, I would say we should not get overly excited. If the 50% tariff did not derail growth meaningfully, then the reduction to 18% is also unlikely to create a massive earnings windfall across industries. However, apart from improving FII sentiment, it could help restart the FDI cycle.
I know of several corporates that had paused investments due to uncertainty about India-US relations. If that clarity improves, FDI flows could resume, which would be positive over the medium term.
Kshitij Anand: Inconsistent policy?
Ajay Tyagi: Exactly. Therefore, investors were wary of putting in that $1 billion or $2 billion investment into the country. Once that cycle restarts, it will definitely have a fundamental bearing on GDP growth and, therefore, earnings growth as well. So, all put together, this should certainly be positive.
Now, notwithstanding the tariff increase that we saw and the subsequent correction, even if this episode had never happened, India was in any case going through an earnings slowdown in both FY25 and FY26, which is just about to end. We have only seen about 7% to 8% earnings growth in both these years.
You know that India’s long-term earnings growth is around 12%, broadly in line with nominal GDP growth. Beyond the cyclical slowdown of the last couple of years, we expect a cyclical upswing. The reasons are similar to what I mentioned earlier — the government giving a fillip to consumption, and consumption being a large part of the economy. If consumption picks up, it eventually percolates down into overall earnings growth.
In any case, we are looking at at least 12% to 13% earnings growth in the upcoming year, FY27. That is our broader view. We expect better earnings growth compared to the last two years, which were certainly disappointing.
Kshitij Anand: Another theme that picked up last year was IPOs. We saw more than 300 IPOs, including SME IPOs — more on the SME side and fewer on the main board — but still over 100 main-board IPOs in the last calendar year. How are you viewing this space now? Do you think so many IPOs hitting the market is good for the industry, or is it a word of caution?
Ajay Tyagi: That is a very interesting question, and I am glad you asked it. I see tremendous excitement among retail investors toward IPOs — and, quite worryingly, toward SME board IPOs, which, in my view, is actually a no-go area. Investors should be extremely cautious about SME board IPOs.
Even IPOs on the main exchanges should be approached with caution. Let me share some data. We continuously analyse IPO data. Before that, let me refer to the Pareto principle — the 80-20 rule — which states that 80% of outcomes are driven by 20% of factors. In stock markets, this holds true, and in IPO markets, it is even more pronounced.
Only about 20% of IPOs end up creating meaningful wealth for investors. We have analysed data from 2000 onwards — year by year — looking at how many IPOs were launched and what returns they delivered over time. The data shows that only about 16% to 17% of IPOs have generated returns higher than overall market returns. Given that long-term market returns have been around 13–14%, that was our benchmark.
So, only about 16–17% of IPOs have beaten that benchmark. This is data investors should keep in mind. They should not invest indiscriminately in all IPOs. Many are chasing listing gains, which I understand, but that is not how wealth is consistently created.
Now, to your question — is this trend good or bad? I would say it is net positive. High-quality companies also come to market through IPOs. For instance, if a company like Eternal had not listed in India and had instead gone to Nasdaq, it would have been unfortunate because domestic investors would not have had the opportunity to participate in that business. Similarly, several strong companies have gone public in recent years.
So, the trend is net positive. What it requires is the ability to separate the wheat from the chaff. Investors must not be indiscriminate; they need to be very selective.
Kshitij Anand: I wanted to get your perspective on FIIs as well. You did say that FIIs are sort of coming back now, but net-net, they were net sellers last year. Hopefully, with the US deal coming through and the rupee also stabilising at this point around 90-ish, how are you seeing the FII picture at this point in time?
Ajay Tyagi: Let me share some data first and then directly respond to your question. FIIs started investing in India in 1992, when the markets opened up. Since then, FII ownership of Indian equities has steadily increased. It reached a peak of 22% in 2021 — the highest level of FII ownership in Indian equities.
From 2021 until now, this number has declined to around 17% or 17.5%. The last time it was this low was in 2013. If you recall, 2013 was the year when Morgan Stanley categorised India as part of the “Fragile Five.” Fundamentally, India was not performing well at that time, and FIIs were concerned, so they reduced their exposure.
Today, however, India is in much better shape, yet FII ownership has fallen back to 17–17.5%, a level last seen in 2013. After that period, ownership steadily rose year after year. This clearly indicates that FIIs have sold significantly. In fact, India has not been a good trade for FIIs, not just in the last year but over the last two to three years.
The key takeaway is that India is not over-owned by FIIs; it is under-owned. That is actually comforting. When there is no froth — whether in a stock, a sector, or a country — it provides a degree of comfort. India is not currently a crowded trade, and that is positive.
Secondly, as I mentioned earlier, there was a sentiment-driven negative impact when the India-US treaty did not materialise and India was subjected to a 50% tariff. China, for instance, faced a 35% tariff, so India being higher than that was surprising. It created uncertainty, and many investors preferred to stay underweight.
At least that part of the issue has now been addressed. With valuations correcting and fundamentals potentially improving, the case for India strengthens.
The third factor is earnings. As we discussed earlier, earnings were disappointing over the last couple of years. If earnings growth returns to trend levels, that could be the final trigger to bring FIIs back.
So, we may currently be at a cyclical low in terms of FII ownership, and we could potentially see this ownership rise again toward previous levels.
Kshitij Anand: So, being under-owned at this point is actually a comforting factor and perhaps a cue investors should take note of. Also, what would be your advice to long-term investors? There has been a lot of volatility, and many new-age investors have experienced it for the first time. For someone deploying money in 2026, which began on a volatile note but is now stabilising, what would your advice be?
Ajay Tyagi: I consider Warren Buffett my guru. Much of what I have learned in the markets comes from his teachings. I recall one of his one-line gems that changed my perspective on investing: “Markets are designed to transfer wealth from the active investor to the patient investor.”
My advice to investors is this: your patience will be tested. There will be times when you may feel foolish. But those are precisely the times when patience matters most — provided you have acted sensibly.
By sensible, I mean not investing indiscriminately in every IPO, but preserving capital for the right opportunities; not chasing sectors simply because they are fashionable; and not selling quality businesses like IT just because it is currently popular to say that AI will replace everything.
If you have done your fundamental research well and are focused on long-term drivers, then patience will be rewarded. This is a business where EQ is often more important than IQ.
There may be years when Indian markets deliver negative or flat returns. That does not mean the Indian economy has lost momentum or that equity markets will not deliver 12–13% returns over time. Markets are cyclical. After a few years of strong returns, it is natural to expect a few years of subdued performance.
So, my generic advice — and it is perhaps even more relevant today — is to remain patient and stay focused on the long term.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Business
Automakers trade group urges feds to scrap gas tax, replace it with vehicle weight fee
Kaltbaum Capital Management President Gary Kaltbaum discusses pressure on chipmaker and AI stocks, the economic impact from high oil and gas prices as well as monetary policy under Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Varney & Co.
The leader of a trade group that represents most major automakers called on the federal government to eliminate its gasoline tax and replace it with a vehicle fee to finance road infrastructure needs.
Alliance for Automotive Innovation CEO John Bozzella, whose group represents automakers such as General Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai and other leading car manufacturers, put forward a proposal that urged the federal government to address the growing shortfall in the Highway Trust Fund with a vehicle fee.
The proposal would function like a vehicle registration fee that’s assessed on all vehicles based on their weight, and was first reported by Reuters. It comes as the federal government’s current surface transportation law is set to expire on September 30, which could prompt debate over policy changes.
“This policy would guarantee every vehicle on the road contributes something to maintaining America’s transportation network,” Bozzella said. “Those driving older, less fuel-efficient vehicles or who travel long distances bear the financial burden. That’s not fair.”
AMERICANS DITCH EVS FOR BIGGER VEHICLES AS AUTO TRENDS REVERSE

An auto industry trade group is calling for a new vehicle registration tax to replace the gas tax. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The Highway Trust Fund, which finances the federal government’s surface transportation programs involving highways and mass transit, is projected to reach insolvency in 2028, at which time it would face a 46% spending cut, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Revenue from the 18.4-cents per gallon gasoline tax has declined 60% in real terms, as the federal gas tax hasn’t been increased since 1993 and wasn’t indexed to inflation.
THE $10,000 CAR LOAN TAX DEDUCTION: HERE’S WHO QUALIFIES AND HOW TO CLAIM IT

The federal gas tax hasn’t been raised since 1993 and has eroded due to inflation. (M. Scott Brauer/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
The shortfall has caused Congress and successive administrations to shift more than $275 billion from the federal government’s general fund to help pay for road repairs since 2008, as spending has consistently outstripped revenue.
Gas tax revenue has also declined amid the emergence of electric vehicles (EVs) and more fuel-efficient hybrids that reduce the frequency of fill-ups by drivers.
CAR DEALERS WARNED BY FTC ABOUT DECEPTIVE PRICING PRACTICES, HIDDEN FEES

The Highway Trust Fund helps finance federal spending on surface transportation programs. (Stephen Goin / Fox News)
A proposal by House Republicans last year would have imposed a new $250 annual fee on EVs and $100 for hybrid EVs, though it wasn’t included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Last year, an EV advocacy group known as the Electrification Coalition argued that the proposed $250 fee on EVs was unfair because an average gas-powered vehicle pays just $88 a year in federal gas taxes.
GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE
Reuters contributed to this report.
Business
Occasional Binge Drinking Once a Month May Triple Risk of Advanced Liver Scarring, Study Finds
Many adults who consider themselves moderate drinkers may be unknowingly harming their livers by bingeing just once a month, according to new research from the University of Southern California’s Keck School of Medicine that challenges long-held assumptions about “safe” occasional heavy drinking.

The study, published April 2, 2026, in the journal Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology, found that people with metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) who consume four or more drinks in a single day for women or five or more for men at least once a month face nearly three times the odds of developing advanced liver fibrosis compared with those who spread out the same total weekly alcohol intake more evenly.
MASLD, formerly known as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, affects about one in three U.S. adults and is closely linked to obesity, type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome. The condition causes fat to build up in the liver, making the organ more vulnerable to inflammation and scarring when exposed to alcohol spikes.
Researchers analyzed data from more than 8,000 U.S. adults participating in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) between 2017 and 2023. Among nearly 4,000 participants with MASLD who had liver stiffness measurements via vibration-controlled transient elastography, 15.9% reported episodic heavy drinking — defined as the binge threshold at least once a month.
After adjusting for age, sex and average weekly alcohol consumption, those with episodic heavy drinking had 69% higher odds of significant liver fibrosis and nearly three times higher odds (adjusted odds ratio 2.76) of advanced fibrosis. The weighted prevalence of significant fibrosis was 23.6% among episodic heavy drinkers with MASLD versus 15.6% among those who did not binge.
Lead author Dr. Brian P. Lee, a hepatologist and liver transplant specialist at Keck Medicine of USC, said the findings deliver a clear message: “It’s not just how much you drink, but how you drink it.”
“When the liver is already fatty from metabolic issues, a sudden large influx of alcohol overwhelms its ability to process toxins, triggering intense inflammation that promotes scarring over time,” Lee explained in a university release. “Spreading the same number of drinks across the week appears far less damaging.”
The study compared individuals with identical average weekly intake but different patterns — one group with monthly binges, the other drinking more steadily. The difference in advanced fibrosis risk was striking even among people who stayed within generally accepted moderate limits of up to 14 drinks per week for men and seven for women.
More than half of all adults in the broader sample reported some form of episodic heavy drinking, underscoring how common the behavior is. For the roughly 100 million Americans with MASLD, the implications are significant, researchers said.
Liver fibrosis occurs when repeated injury causes scar tissue to replace healthy liver cells. In early stages it may produce no symptoms, but advanced fibrosis can progress to cirrhosis, liver failure or liver cancer. Once scarring reaches advanced levels, damage is often irreversible, though progression can sometimes be slowed with lifestyle changes.
Experts not involved in the study called the results concerning but consistent with emerging understanding of alcohol’s interaction with metabolic liver disease.
“This research highlights that binge patterns create acute stress the liver cannot fully recover from between episodes, especially when fat accumulation has already compromised function,” said Dr. Anna Mae Diehl, a hepatologist at Duke University who has studied MASLD for decades. “The old idea that moderate average intake is protective regardless of pattern needs updating.”
The findings add nuance to national drinking guidelines. While many health organizations define low-risk drinking by weekly totals, the USC study suggests daily peaks matter independently for people with underlying liver fat.
Public health implications could be broad. MASLD rates continue rising alongside obesity and diabetes epidemics. Many affected individuals remain undiagnosed because the disease is often silent until advanced stages. Routine screening for liver fat or fibrosis is not yet standard in primary care for all at-risk adults.
Researchers noted limitations in the observational data. Self-reported drinking can understate actual consumption, and the study could not prove causation, though the pattern held after statistical adjustments. Longitudinal studies tracking drinking habits and liver outcomes over years would strengthen the evidence.
Still, the authors argue the results should prompt clinicians to ask patients not only how much they drink weekly but whether they have heavy drinking days.
“Patients with MASLD should be counseled to avoid binge episodes entirely, even if their average intake seems moderate,” Lee recommended. “Complete abstinence from alcohol remains the safest option for those with known liver disease, but for others, spreading intake and staying well below binge thresholds appears wiser.”
The study also examined how reclassifying episodic heavy drinkers might shift diagnoses between MASLD, metabolic and alcohol-associated liver disease (MetALD), and pure alcohol-associated liver disease. Including binge patterns increased the proportion identified as having alcohol-related contributions.
As awareness grows, experts hope the research will encourage more honest conversations about drinking patterns during medical visits. Simple blood tests and noninvasive liver scans can now detect fibrosis earlier, offering opportunities for intervention before irreversible damage occurs.
For the general public, the takeaway is cautionary: an occasional “big night” that feels harmless may carry hidden costs, particularly for the millions already living with fatty liver.
Lifestyle measures that help overall metabolic health — weight management, regular exercise, blood sugar control and a balanced diet — also support liver resilience. Reducing or eliminating alcohol provides additional protection.
The USC team plans further research into mechanisms, genetic factors and whether certain populations face even higher vulnerability. In the meantime, the April 2026 publication serves as a timely reminder that when it comes to alcohol and liver health, the pattern of consumption may matter as much as the total volume.
Health organizations are reviewing the data for potential updates to patient education materials. In the interim, physicians say the study reinforces a simple principle: protecting the liver means thinking beyond weekly averages to daily realities.
Business
Christians Worldwide Celebrate Happy Resurrection Day 2026 on April 5 With Messages of Hope
NEW YORK — Christians across the globe gathered Sunday for worship, sunrise services and family celebrations to mark Resurrection Day 2026, also known as Easter Sunday, commemorating the central tenet of their faith: the resurrection of Jesus Christ from the dead.

AFP
Easter 2026 fell on April 5, the first Sunday after the first full moon following the spring equinox. This date, determined by lunar and solar cycles established at the Council of Nicaea in 325, varies each year but always lands between March 22 and April 25. For Western Christian traditions using the Gregorian calendar, April 5 marked the culmination of Holy Week, following Palm Sunday, Maundy Thursday and Good Friday.
The day carries profound theological significance. According to the New Testament accounts in the Gospels of Matthew, Mark, Luke and John, Jesus was crucified on Good Friday and rose on the third day, conquering death and offering believers the promise of eternal life. Many churches refer to the observance as Resurrection Sunday or Resurrection Day to emphasize this victory over the grave rather than secular Easter traditions.
In churches large and small, from grand cathedrals to outdoor gatherings, believers sang hymns such as “Christ the Lord Is Risen Today” and “He Lives,” listened to sermons on hope and renewal, and participated in baptisms and communion. Sunrise services, a longstanding tradition especially popular in the United States, drew crowds to beaches, parks and hilltops to witness the dawn as a symbol of new life.
In Charleston, South Carolina, multiple congregations held sunrise services as the sun rose around 7:02 a.m., with one 65th annual event streamed live for those unable to attend in person. Similar observances took place at the Garden Tomb in Jerusalem, where Christians commemorated the resurrection at a site many believe resembles the biblical tomb.
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints encouraged members and friends to attend special sacrament meetings and reflect on the Savior’s resurrection. The First Presidency had invited families to bring neighbors to Palm Sunday services the previous week and to watch general conference sessions that included Easter-focused messages of God’s love.
Catholic parishes celebrated with solemn processions and festal Masses of the Resurrection. In New York, the Church of the Transfiguration offered a Solemn Procession and Festal Mass at 11 a.m., with live streams available for remote participants. Easter Vigil services the previous evening welcomed new members through baptism and confirmation.
Many Protestant denominations followed the Revised Common Lectionary readings for Year A, including passages from Acts, Psalms and the Gospels that recount the empty tomb and appearances of the risen Christ. Sermons often connected the resurrection to contemporary themes of renewal amid global challenges, emphasizing resilience, forgiveness and community.
Families marked the day with traditional meals featuring ham, lamb or regional specialties, along with Easter egg hunts for children. The custom of dyeing and hiding eggs symbolizes new life emerging from the shell, while chocolate bunnies and baskets add festive elements, though many congregations focused on the religious meaning.
For Eastern Orthodox Christians, who follow the Julian calendar, Easter falls later this year on April 12. The difference highlights the diversity within Christianity while underscoring the shared belief in Christ’s resurrection.
In an era of digital connectivity, many services were livestreamed, allowing believers unable to attend physically — due to illness, travel or distance — to participate. Online Easter celebrations, including virtual choirs and interactive messages, extended the reach of Resurrection Day observances worldwide.
The holiday is not a public holiday in the United States, so most businesses operated on regular Sunday hours. However, many families used the long weekend, often paired with school breaks, for gatherings and travel.
Church leaders used the occasion to extend invitations to those exploring faith. Messages of inclusion emphasized that the resurrection offers hope to all, regardless of background. Some services featured testimonies of personal transformation attributed to faith in the risen Christ.
Public figures and organizations shared greetings. Pope Francis was expected to deliver his traditional Urbi et Orbi blessing from St. Peter’s Basilica in Vatican City, addressing global issues through the lens of Easter hope. In the U.S., presidents and governors have historically issued Easter proclamations recognizing the day’s importance to millions of citizens.
The commercial side of Easter remained visible, with retailers promoting candy, clothing and home decor. Yet many families and clergy sought to balance secular fun with spiritual reflection, encouraging focus on the resurrection’s message of redemption and new beginnings.
Resurrection Day also prompts charitable acts. Some churches organized food drives, community meals or outreach to the homeless, reflecting Jesus’ teachings on love and service.
As climate and world events shape gatherings, some outdoor services adapted to weather forecasts. In many regions, mild spring conditions allowed comfortable worship under open skies.
The date’s calculation ties Easter to Passover, as the crucifixion occurred during the Jewish festival. This connection reminds Christians of the shared roots with Judaism and the historical context of Jesus’ final week.
Scholars note that early Christians gradually shifted emphasis from the Jewish calendar to a standardized method to unify observance across the growing faith. The movable date ensures alignment with both astronomical phenomena and seasonal renewal symbolism.
For millions, Resurrection Day 2026 served as a reminder of core Christian beliefs: that death does not have the final word, and that faith brings hope even in difficult times. Sermons frequently addressed personal struggles, societal divisions and international conflicts, pointing to the resurrection as a source of ultimate peace.
Children’s programs taught the Easter story through songs, crafts and age-appropriate lessons. Many Sunday schools incorporated eggs and butterflies as visual aids for transformation.
In diverse communities, interfaith neighbors sometimes joined friends for meals or attended open services, fostering understanding. Ecumenical events brought Catholics, Protestants and Orthodox together in shared celebration where possible.
As the sun set on April 5, 2026, the joy of Resurrection Day lingered. Families returned home with renewed spirits, while churches planned follow-up activities during the Easter season, which continues for 50 days until Pentecost.
Whether expressed as “Happy Easter” or “Happy Resurrection Day,” the greeting carried the same underlying hope: He is risen, indeed.
For those who missed services or wish to revisit messages, many churches posted recordings online. The day’s observances, both sacred and festive, reinforced Christianity’s foundational claim and its enduring call to live with faith, love and expectation of renewal.
Business
China’s Economy Meets Target but Momentum Weakens
China’s economy expanded by 5% in 2025, driven by increased exports outside the US. However, domestic challenges persist, including weak demand, declining home prices, and other economic pressures, which may impact sustained growth. The country’s efforts to diversify and boost exports have contributed to this growth amid ongoing domestic economic concerns.
Despite achieving its economic growth target, China’s economy is experiencing signs of slowdown. Following years of rapid expansion, recent data indicates a deceleration in key sectors, including manufacturing and investment. Factors such as global uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, and domestic reforms have contributed to this slowdown. The Chinese government remains committed to maintaining stability while transitioning to more sustainable growth models.
In response, authorities are implementing supportive measures like monetary easing and infrastructure investments to bolster the economy. However, challenges remain, including a shrinking labor force and rising debt levels in some regions. These issues pose risks to China’s long-term economic resilience and growth prospects. Experts suggest that balancing growth with quality development will be crucial moving forward.
Overall, China’s economy shows resilience but faces complex hurdles despite reaching its overall targets. Continued policy adjustments and global economic conditions will play vital roles in shaping its future trajectory. While short-term growth may slow, China aims for a more sustainable, innovation-driven economy in the coming years.
Other People are Reading
Business
Congo says it will receive third-country deportees under new deal with US

Congo says it will receive third-country deportees under new deal with US
Business
5 IT Mistakes That Still Catch Small Businesses Off Guard
So here’s something that doesn’t get talked about enough. Ask a room of British SME owners what keeps them up at night and you’ll hear about cash flow, staffing, maybe the economy. Nobody says “our firewall configuration.” Funny, that.
Then the Wi-Fi drops on a Wednesday morning and suddenly it’s all anyone can talk about. Go figure.
Assuming Hackers Have Bigger Fish to Fry
Loads of business owners across the UK reckon cybercriminals only bother with the big corporates. Makes intuitive sense, right? Go where the money is. Except it’s wrong. The government’s Cyber Security Breaches Survey put the number at 43% of businesses reporting a breach or attack over twelve months. Forty-three percent. That includes the tiny ones.
And honestly? The attacks aren’t even clever most of the time. Phishing emails. Dodgy links. Passwords that haven’t been changed since 2019. Opportunism, basically. The digital equivilent of trying car doors in a car park to see which ones are unlocked.
Only Calling for Help When Things Break
Look, this one is probably the most common and also the most expensive in the long run. Loads of small businesses treat IT support the way they’d treat a locksmith. You don’t think about them until you’re locked out.
The problem with that? Stuff doesn’t just break cleanly. By the time anyone notices, there’s already lost files, exposed data, a full afternoon where nobody can get into the shared drive. Mustard IT in London is one provider that’s moved away from that break-fix model entirely, focusing on ongoing monitoring instead. Which, fair enough, sounds less dramatic than emergency callouts. But the boring stuff prevents the dramatic stuff.
Anyway. Moving on.
Forgetting That People Are the Weak Link
Buy the best antivirus on the market. Install a proper firewall. Set up two-factor authentication on everything.
Then watch someone on the team click “Enable Macros” on a spreadsheet attachment from an email address they don’t recognise.
Staff training gets overlooked constantly. The Federation of Small Businesses flagged this, noting that small firms lag behind on digital training and many owners aren’t sure where to begin. Doesn’t need to be a week-long course. A short session every few months on spotting suspicious emails would already be a massive improvement. The bar really is that low.
Backups That Exist Only in Theory
This one’s almost funny if it weren’t so common. A business sets up automated backups, assumes they’re ticking along, then discovers during an actual emergency that nothing’s been backing up properly for weeks.
Nobody checks. That’s the whole problem. There’s a useful piece on BM Magazine about this exact gap between “having something in place” and that something actually working. Worth a read if this sounds familiar.
Outgrowing the Setup Without Realising It
Five employees. A basic router, a shared Google Drive, maybe a NAS box off Amazon. Works fine.
Fast forward three years. Thirty staff. Same router. Same filing structure. Shared logins that four people who’ve since left still technically have access to. Held together with hope, essentially.
Nobody plans for this. Growth sneaks up and the IT budget doesn’t grow with it. Then one morning the whole thing buckles, and rebuilding from scratch costs about three times what sorting it earlier would’ve done. Classic.
Anyway. None of this is groundbreaking stuff, which is sort of the depressing part. Same mistakes, different year. Maybe just… go check the backups are actually running?
Business
Dale Vince Urges Ed Miliband to Ban North Sea Oil Exports Amid Iran War Energy Crisis
One of the Labour Party’s most prominent financial backers has called on Ed Miliband to slam the brakes on North Sea oil and gas exports, warning that the escalating conflict with Iran could leave Britain dangerously short of fuel.
Dale Vince, the green energy entrepreneur behind Ecotricity, said the Energy Secretary must be prepared to act decisively, instructing operators in the basin to keep hydrocarbons at home should supplies tighten further. Speaking to the Daily Telegraph, he argued it would be “bonkers” to continue shipping British barrels overseas while households and businesses brace for a squeeze.
“We can ban exports from the North Sea. China have done it,” Mr Vince said, pointing to Beijing’s willingness to prioritise domestic consumption during periods of strain. “If we are facing the prospect of a fuel shortage, then stop exporting it.”
Britain currently pumps around 53 million tonnes of crude annually, the bulk of which heads to refineries in the Netherlands, Poland and beyond. In a quirk of the global trading system, the country then imports roughly 51 million tonnes to feed its own forecourts and power stations, leaving it fully exposed to price spikes on world markets.
That exposure has become painfully evident since hostilities in the Gulf erupted last month. Roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies remain bottled up behind Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude soaring to about $109 a barrel from $77 at the start of the month. Wholesale gas has jumped by around three-quarters, pushing up pump prices and prompting warnings from suppliers that household energy bills will climb sharply in the months ahead.
The crisis has reignited a fierce debate over Britain’s energy security, with industry voices pressing Mr Miliband to accelerate drilling and to rubber-stamp the contested Rosebank and Jackdaw fields. Reports on Friday suggested the Energy Secretary may approve Jackdaw while blocking Rosebank, a decision likely to inflame both sides of the argument.
Mr Vince remains opposed to any fresh expansion but believes the Government should extract maximum value from the ageing basin’s remaining reserves. He proposed offering existing operators contracts for difference, a mechanism more commonly associated with renewables, to prevent what he described as “a cliff-edge event where operators walk away because prices collapse”.
The intervention is certain to provoke fierce resistance from private producers, who rely on international buyers for the lion’s share of their revenue. Yet Mr Vince said the present moment exposes the folly of exposing Britain’s domestic output to volatile global benchmarks.
“We’ve opened ourselves up to global markets, but the concept of globalisation is costing us an arm and a leg when there’s an energy crisis,” he said. He contrasted the British approach with that of the United States, which restricts certain fuel exports and has long enjoyed the benefit of cheaper domestic gas. “We’re back to a situation where whatever we make in the North Sea costs us the global price.”
Mr Vince also used the moment to argue that the conflict should prompt a wider rethink of Britain’s dependence on Washington. The US has become the largest single supplier of crude to the UK, accounting for roughly 30 per cent of imports. “It alarms me to be reliant on the US for anything,” he said, describing the current American administration as “a very undependable regime” and calling for greater strategic independence from Washington.
Ultimately, he argued, the long-term answer lies in weaning the country off hydrocarbons altogether. “The answer is to get off fossil fuels and to break the link between the global price of fossil fuels and those that we make in our country.”
A Government spokesman defended the current approach, insisting Britain benefits from “a strong and diverse mix of fuel supply” spanning both imports and domestic production. Officials added that UK refinery output of petrol from crude exceeded demand in 2025, leaving a surplus available for export.
Business
Is Dunkin’ Open on Easter Sunday 2026? Most Locations With Varying Hours on April 5
Coffee and donut lovers wondering whether Dunkin’ is open on Easter can breathe easy: the vast majority of the chain’s locations across the United States will be open on Sunday, April 5, 2026, though hours vary by store and franchisee decisions.

A Dunkin’ spokesperson confirmed to multiple news outlets that while the company does not observe a full chain-wide closure for Easter, individual store hours are set locally. Many locations plan to operate during typical Sunday hours, often from around 5 a.m. to 10 p.m., but customers are strongly encouraged to verify specifics using the Dunkin’ mobile app or the official store locator on dunkindonuts.com before heading out.
Easter 2026 coincides with Resurrection Day observances for millions of Christians, creating a busy travel and family-gathering weekend. Dunkin’, known for its coffee, breakfast sandwiches, donuts and seasonal treats, remains a popular stop for quick caffeine fixes and holiday morning snacks even on the religious holiday.
The chain’s franchise model means operating decisions rest largely with individual owners. Some stores in high-traffic areas or near churches and tourist spots may open earlier to accommodate sunrise service attendees or families heading to Easter brunches. Others, particularly those in malls or smaller markets, could have reduced hours or, in rare cases, close for the day.
Recent reports indicate that many Dunkin’ shops plan regular Sunday operations on April 5. Typical hours often start between 5 a.m. and 6 a.m. and run until 8 p.m. to 10 p.m., though 24-hour locations may maintain extended service. Drive-thrus, where available, are expected to operate at most open stores, providing convenient access for those with full holiday schedules.
Dunkin’ has a history of staying open on most major holidays, including Easter, Thanksgiving and even Christmas in many cases, setting it apart from retailers that fully shutter. This approach caters to shift workers, travelers and anyone needing a reliable morning boost regardless of the calendar.
For Easter specifically, the company has not announced any chain-wide promotions tied directly to the holiday beyond its standard menu. However, festive packaged treats such as Brownie Batter Creme-Filled Chocolate Eggs and other seasonal items are available at retail locations nationwide for those hosting Easter baskets or egg hunts at home.
Customers seeking last-minute items before or after church services should note that Good Friday, April 3, saw most locations open with normal hours, allowing time for advance purchases. On Easter itself, mobile ordering through the Dunkin’ app remains available at participating stores, enabling users to skip lines and pick up orders curbside or in-store.
The advice from Dunkin’ remains consistent year after year: use the app or website to confirm local hours. The store locator provides real-time or updated information for each franchise, including drive-thru availability, Wi-Fi status and current promotions.
Industry observers note that quick-service restaurants like Dunkin’ benefit from holiday demand. Families traveling to visit relatives or attending community events often stop for coffee and breakfast items. In tourist-heavy areas, such as beach towns or near major highways, stores are particularly likely to maintain full operations.
Some locations may adjust staffing for the holiday, potentially leading to slightly longer wait times during peak morning hours. Patrons are reminded to factor in possible crowds if visiting right after sunrise services or before large family meals.
Dunkin’ has evolved significantly from its roots as a donut shop in Quincy, Massachusetts, in 1950. Today it operates thousands of locations nationwide, emphasizing beverages alongside baked goods and sandwiches. The brand’s focus on accessibility means most stores prioritize convenience, including extended hours on weekends and holidays where feasible.
For those unable to visit in person, many grocery and convenience stores carry Dunkin’-branded packaged coffee, K-Cup pods and other at-home products, providing an alternative for Easter morning routines.
Public reaction on social media in the days leading up to April 5 showed appreciation for Dunkin’s decision to remain largely open. Posts praised the chain for providing normalcy during a busy holiday weekend, with users sharing screenshots of app hours for their local stores.
While the majority of locations will welcome customers, exceptions exist. Stores in certain regions with strong local traditions of full holiday closures or those operated by franchisees choosing to give staff the day off may be shuttered. Mall-based or airport locations sometimes follow host venue hours, which could differ.
Travelers passing through states on Easter road trips should plan ahead, especially in rural areas where fewer options exist. Apps like Google Maps or Waze can sometimes display current business hours, but the official Dunkin’ tools remain the most reliable source.
Dunkin’ has not released any special Easter menu items for 2026 beyond its standard lineup and the aforementioned packaged treats. Signature drinks such as the Original Blend coffee, iced lattes and seasonal flavors continue to be available at open stores.
As families celebrate Resurrection Day with church services, egg hunts and festive meals, a stop at Dunkin’ fits into many routines for a quick pick-me-up or treat to share. The chain’s widespread presence ensures that in most communities, coffee remains just a short drive away.
Ultimately, while Dunkin’ is open on Easter Sunday 2026 at the majority of its locations, the best practice is to check ahead. A few minutes spent on the app or website can prevent disappointment and ensure a smooth visit for that essential holiday coffee run.
Whether grabbing a dozen donuts for the family table or a personal iced latte on the way to brunch, Dunkin’ aims to serve customers whenever possible — even on one of the year’s most significant religious holidays.
Business
No Jackpot Winner, Prize to Climb to $231 Million
The Powerball jackpot rolled over again Saturday night after no ticket matched all six numbers in the April 4, 2026 drawing, leaving the estimated grand prize to climb toward $231 million for Monday’s drawing.

The winning numbers drawn at 10:59 p.m. Eastern time were white balls 3, 6, 13, 41 and 65, with Powerball 1. The Power Play multiplier was 4x. A separate Double Play drawing produced white balls 20, 38, 45, 58 and 63 with Double Play ball 5.
The advertised jackpot for Saturday stood at an estimated $217 million annuity value, or about $98.2 million cash option. With no grand prize winner, the next drawing on Monday, April 6, will carry an estimated $231 million annuity prize.
Saturday’s drawing continued a rollover streak that has built excitement among players nationwide. The last jackpot winner claimed the prize in early August 2025, allowing the prize pool to grow through multiple drawings without a top-tier match.
Official results released by the Multi-State Lottery Association confirmed the numbers shortly after the drawing. Players are advised to check tickets carefully, as lower-tier prizes remain available in every drawing.
For the main Powerball game, matching all five white balls and the Powerball wins the jackpot. Saturday’s combination produced no such winner. The odds of hitting the jackpot are approximately 1 in 292.2 million.
Several players matched portions of the winning combination, qualifying for substantial secondary prizes. Official prize breakdowns and state-by-state winner counts were expected to be released in the coming days on the Powerball website and through participating lotteries.
The 4x Power Play multiplier boosted non-jackpot prizes for ticket holders who paid the optional extra dollar. For example, the Match 5 prize (five white balls without the Powerball) carried a base value of $1 million and would increase to $2 million with the 4x multiplier in qualifying states. Other prize levels saw similar boosts.
Powerball is played in 45 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Drawings occur Monday, Wednesday and Saturday nights. Tickets cost $2, or $3 with the Power Play option.
The April 4 drawing fell on the Saturday before Easter, a traditionally busy sales period for lotteries as families and holiday travelers purchase tickets. Retailers across the country reported steady demand leading into the weekend.
Powerball officials reminded players that unclaimed prizes have expiration dates that vary by jurisdiction, typically ranging from 90 days to one year. Winners should sign the back of their tickets immediately and consult tax professionals, as federal and state taxes apply to significant winnings.
Saturday’s results come after Wednesday’s April 1 drawing, which produced white balls 4-10-11-52-64 and Powerball 24 with a 3x Power Play. That drawing also rolled over after no jackpot winner.
The game’s popularity stems from its massive potential payouts and relatively straightforward play. Players select five numbers from 1 to 69 and one Powerball number from 1 to 26. The Power Play option multiplies most non-jackpot prizes.
Lottery experts note that while the odds remain daunting, the dream of sudden wealth continues to drive ticket sales. When jackpots reach nine figures, sales often surge, creating a cycle that can push prizes even higher until someone finally matches all six numbers.
For those who matched fewer numbers Saturday, smaller prizes offered consolation. Matching just the Powerball wins $4, doubled or multiplied with Power Play. Higher matches yield progressively larger fixed or pari-mutuel prizes.
The Multi-State Lottery Association, which administers Powerball, emphasizes responsible play. Officials encourage players to set budgets and treat lottery tickets as entertainment rather than investment.
As the jackpot grows again, anticipation will build for Monday’s drawing. Players can purchase tickets at authorized retailers or through official state lottery apps and websites in participating jurisdictions until sales close before each drawing.
Saturday’s winning combination — 3, 6, 13, 41, 65 and Powerball 1 — featured relatively low numbers mixed with higher ones, a common pattern that still eluded jackpot hopefuls.
In the Double Play option, available in select states, the numbers 20-38-45-58-63 with Double Play ball 5 provided another chance at prizes using the same ticket.
Powerball has awarded some of the largest lottery prizes in U.S. history, including record jackpots exceeding $2 billion in past years. While Saturday’s prize fell short of those historic levels, it still represented life-changing money for any potential winner.
As of early April 2026, the game continues its three-draws-per-week schedule introduced in 2021, giving players more frequent opportunities to participate.
Lottery officials urge anyone who believes they hold a winning ticket to secure it safely and contact their state lottery for claim instructions. Large prizes often require in-person validation at lottery headquarters.
For most players, Saturday’s drawing ended without a jackpot win, shifting focus to the next opportunity on Monday night. The growing prize pool ensures continued national attention as the rollover streak extends.
Whether players analyze hot and cold numbers, use quick picks or rely on lucky dates and birthdays, the fundamental appeal remains the same: a small investment for a shot at transforming ordinary lives into extraordinary ones.
With no winner on April 4, eyes now turn to Monday’s estimated $231 million jackpot. As always, players are reminded that every ticket purchased supports education, infrastructure and other public programs in participating states through lottery proceeds.
The official Powerball website and state lottery platforms will post full prize details and winner information in the days ahead. In the meantime, millions of tickets from Saturday’s drawing will be checked and double-checked in hopes that someone, somewhere, finally beat the long odds.
Business
Lamb Prices Hit Record High as Easter and Eid Collide
Supermarket shoppers face paying more than £16 per kilo for a leg as overlapping religious festivals, shrinking flocks and buoyant export demand squeeze the UK sheep sector
British households sitting down to Easter lunch this weekend are confronting the steepest lamb prices on record, as a rare calendar clash with the end of Ramadan collides with a dwindling national flock and strong Continental export demand.
Figures compiled by the retail analysts Assosia show the average price of a leg of lamb across Tesco, Morrisons, Asda and Sainsbury’s has climbed to £16.23 per kilo, up 12.5 per cent on a year ago, when shoppers were paying £14.43. The sharpest supermarket jumps have landed at Sainsbury’s, where a British butterflied leg has leapt by a third to £20, while its Taste the Difference Welsh Hill half leg is up 22.4 per cent at £17.75. Tesco’s Finest lamb shoulder, meanwhile, has risen 16.4 per cent to the same £17.75 mark.
The price spike at the tills reflects a sharp move in wholesale markets. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) reports that wholesale lamb has risen from roughly £7.20 per kilo at Easter last year to almost £8.40 today.
Independent butchers are feeling the pinch too. Sam Bagge, manager of the award-winning Walsingham Farm Shop in Norfolk, said a 2.5kg leg of local, high-welfare lamb is now retailing at £75, up from £65 a year ago. “It’s definitely as expensive as I’ve ever seen it,” he said, adding that budget-minded customers were increasingly trading down to rolled shoulder of pork, which has seen a 30 per cent uplift in demand at £27 a joint.
The livestock auctioneer James Little described the conditions as “a perfect storm”. He said Eid traditionally lifts lamb demand sharply, and with Easter falling early this year the two festive peaks have run straight into one another. “There was a lot of demand at the end of Ramadan and then we’ve run into the Easter demand as well,” he said.
Mr Little added that Britain’s growing Muslim population was underpinning stronger year-round demand: AHDB survey data indicates that 80 per cent of halal consumers in the UK eat lamb at least once a week, against roughly 6 per cent of the population as a whole. On top of that, he pointed to “massive demand for British lamb in France, Belgium, Holland and Portugal”.
Dave Barton, livestock board chairman at the National Farmers’ Union, said prices had been “driven primarily by strong demand from the public outstripping supply, here in the UK and globally”. The squeeze, he warned, is being compounded by a steady contraction in the breeding flock. The National Sheep Association puts the UK’s breeding ewe numbers at 14.7 million, the lowest in living memory.
Mr Barton blamed a collapse in farmer confidence, citing “the phasing out of direct government subsidy payments, alongside high operating costs and market volatility”. He called on ministers to back investment in the sector to rebuild the national flock and secure a “resilient, sustainable and thriving” industry capable of meeting rising demand.
Welsh sheep farmer Gareth Wynn Jones said export appetite remained robust, with Portuguese buyers prizing Welsh mountain lambs for their Christmas barbecues. But he warned that last year’s dry weather had taken its toll on the 2026 crop. “There wasn’t much for them to eat. The number of pregnant ewes was down so there’ll be less lamb on the ground,” he said, signalling that tight supply and firm prices could persist well beyond this Easter weekend.
-
NewsBeat3 days agoSteven Gerrard disagrees with Gary Neville over ‘shock’ Chelsea and Arsenal claim | Football
-
Business2 days agoNo Jackpot Winner and $194 Million Prize Rolls Over
-
Fashion2 days agoWeekend Open Thread: Spanx – Corporette.com
-
Entertainment6 days ago
Fans slam 'heartbreaking' Barbie Dream Fest convention debacle with 'cardboard cutout' experience
-
Crypto World4 days agoGold Price Prediction: Worst Month in 17 Years fo Save Haven Rock
-
Tech6 days agoThe Pixel 10a doesn’t have a camera bump, and it’s great
-
Crypto World5 days ago
Dems press CFTC, ethics board on prediction-market insider trades
-
Tech6 days agoAvatar Legends: The Fighting Game comes out in July and it looks pretty slick
-
Business3 days agoLogin and Checkout Issues Spark Merchant Frustration
-
Sports14 hours agoIndia men’s 4x400m and mixed 4x100m relay teams register big progress | Other Sports News
-
Tech6 days agoApple will hide your email address from apps and websites, but not cops
-
Sports5 days agoTallest college basketball player ever, standing at 7-foot-9, entering transfer portal
-
Tech5 days agoEE TV is using AI to help you find something to watch
-
Politics6 days agoShould Trump Be Scared Strait?
-
Tech5 days agoFlipsnack and the shift toward motion-first business content with living visuals
-
Tech7 days agoElon Musk’s last co-founder reportedly leaves xAI
-
Fashion6 days agoThe Best Spring Trends of 2026
-
Tech5 days agoHow to back up your iPhone & iPad to your Mac before something goes wrong
-
Crypto World6 days agoBitcoin’s Six-Month Losing Streak: What On-Chain Data Says About the Market’s Next Move
-
Politics6 days agoBBC slammed for ignoring author of The Fraud

You must be logged in to post a comment Login