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Hawkish MPC, West Asia conflict cloud rupee, bond yield outlook

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Hawkish MPC, West Asia conflict cloud rupee, bond yield outlook
Mumbai: Hawkish signals from the minutes of the latest monetary policy committee (MPC) review, escalation of the conflict in West Asia and the possibility of higher sugar imports are among the factors keeping the outlook for the rupee and bond yields clouded.

What could be a mitigating factor, however, is the record haul from forex-inflow programs. India has so far received $72.8 billion in dollar inflows through the special swap facility, giving the central bank an additional buffer to manage pressure on the currency.

MPC’s Rate Hike Talk Adds to War Worries for Rupee, BondsET Bureau

Forces In Play: Oil prices and the prospect of higher sugar imports could also weigh, while $72.8 b in swap inflows will offer comfort to the central bank

The rupee, aided by central bank interventions, is expected to trade between 95.50 and 96.00 levels, while the 10-year bond yield is expected to trade with a negative bias, around 6.85% levels.

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“The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee were more hawkish compared to the statements, so the market will take some time to adjust. The floor is 6.87% to 6.88% for the 10-year yield, and it will move upwards if there are more crude shocks. Additionally, global bonds, especially US rates, are also trading with a negative bias whose impact is felt domestically,” said Gopal Tripathi, head of treasury, Jana Small Finance Bank.

The August MPC minutes struck a more hawkish tone, with members flagging that a broadening of inflation pressures could warrant a rate hike or policy recalibration.


Read more: FPIs invest Rs 23,544 crore in Indian equities in Aug on earnings revival, rupee stability
Separately, US Treasury yields initially fell sharply after the Treasury announced it would double its buybacks of longer-dated debt. After the buyback announcement on Thursday, the 10-year yield fell about 6 bps to 4.66%, while the 30-year dropped nearly 10 bps to 5.18%. But the rally quickly faded, by Friday, the US 10-year was back near 4.70% and the 30-year near 5.24%The 10 year India yield has decreased 28 bps to 6.85% this fiscal year.

Oil Pressure

For the rupee, oil prices remain a key pressure point even as the RBI continues to intervene. The intervention is expected to persist given the sizable inflows of $72.85 billion generated through the special swap facility, with $717 billion in foreign exchange reserves, traders said.

“Domestic markets’ price action is likely to be more influenced by energy prices and US rate movements, with USDINR’s attempts to break above 96.0 attracting strong counter presence of the RBI,” said Radhika Rao, senior economist, DBS Bank.

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Hastings cafe set to extend school holiday food support

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A man, Barry Ashley, stood in a cafe holding two paper bags out in front of him.

East Sussex County Council (ESCC) stopped providing summer holiday supermarket vouchers for families which would have received free school meals support, after the changes to the government scheme. It says this means eligible families no longer automatically receive food vouchers over the summer holidays.

The change has been criticised by Hastings and Rye MP Helena Dollimore, but council leader Andy Woolley said the new fund set up by the council “would provide support to households experiencing immediate financial hardship and to help build longer-term financial resilience, rather than providing universal holiday food vouchers to all families eligible for free school meals”.

Council’s across the country have set up similar schemes.

An ESCC spokesperson said £7.3 million will be spent over the next year supporting residents facing financial hardship including debt advice services, community food support, the expansion of holiday clubs with meals, and help for households with essentials like food and utilities.

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A spokesperson for the Department for Work and Pensions said the CRF guidance “makes clear councils can use vouchers to support families with children on free school meals during the holidays and we have written to local authorities to confirm this”.

It added: “Authorities have the discretion to design their own schemes, within the CRF guidance, to ensure the poorest children do not go hungry.”

Follow BBC Sussex on Facebook, external, X, external, and on Instagram, external and listen to BBC Radio Sussex on Sounds. Send your story ideas to southeasttoday@bbc.co.uk, external or WhatsApp us on 08081 002250.

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Dollar trading near multi-month lows, restrained by debt nerves

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Dollar trading near multi-month lows, restrained by debt nerves

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nib holdings limited (NIBHF) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Edward Close
MD, CEO & Executive Director

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for nib’s FY ’26 Full Year Results. I’m Ed Close, nib Group CEO and Managing Director, and I’m joined here in Newcastle by our Group Chief Financial Officer, Nick Freeman.

Before we begin, I’d like to acknowledge the Awabakal people, the traditional custodians of the land we are joining you from today. I pay my respects to elders past and present. We are pleased to report a solid FY ’26 group result with pleasing strategic progress, positive customer outcomes, a strong capital position and a more balanced contribution across our businesses. Our purpose of your better health and well-being continues to shape our strategy and guide our people to deliver sustainable value for our customers, shareholders and the communities we operate within.

nib is now a simpler, more focused and more efficient business with a clear emphasis on private health insurance and related services, supported by leading digital and AI capability, strong customer advocacy, our high-performing people and a disciplined approach to risk and capital management. This morning, I’ll cover the highlights, segment performance and strategic progress. Nick will then take you through the financial results in more detail before I return to discuss strategy and outlook. So if we head across to Slide 6, our FY ’26 highlights. It was a year of disciplined execution and meaningful strategic progress

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Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited (BXRBF) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript