India’s restaurant ecosystem is facing a temporary disruption due to LPG supply constraints, but industry experts say the impact varies widely across different segments. While smaller, unorganised restaurants feel the pinch, major quick-service restaurant (QSR) chains are largely insulated.

Deep Dive into the Numbers
Karan Taurani, EVP, Elara Securities in an interview to ET Now highlighted the scale of India’s food service industry. “We have got almost four million F&B outlets. Out of this, 15% is the organised outlets and 85% is the unorganised outlets. It is all over India basically. The unorganised part covers all your dhabas and the roadside food and so on and so forth. Now, within this four million outlets, 80% of the outlets are LPG dependent and 20% are dependent on electric and hybrid and all those kinds of things.”

He elaborated on demand specifics: “For other companies, they would need about 5 to 10 cylinders per month. Then, you go to standalone restaurants, they would need three to four cylinders per month based on the cuisine and the category that they cater to. Generally, on a thumb rule, these 32 million outlets require five cylinders of 19 kg per month. So, the demand for the cylinders for the F&B industry is about 1.7 crore.”

The supply side, however, is constrained. “If we include weddings, parties, and corporate canteens, the demand actually is closer to two odd crores per month for the cylinders, and the supply is almost about 1.6-1.7 crore. So, there is a deficit of 15-20% as of now,” Taurani said.

Impact on Restaurants and Food Tech
Despite the shortfall, Taurani said the immediate closures are limited. “Very clearly, less than 5% of restaurants are shut today as per NRAI. QSR chains are operating, business as usual, because most of them are dependent on electric and not on LPG. Some are trying to go hybrid, some are rationalising menu, some are reducing work hours. But QSRs are not seeing any big negative impact.”

Smaller standalone players, however, are bearing the brunt. “Assuming a worst-case scenario that 10-15% of restaurants eventually shut down in the next one month, you could see a 7% to 8% EBITDA downgrade for the food business for Zomato,” Taurani added.
He also clarified the potential effect on annual performance: “So, this 7% to 8% EBITDA downgrade is quarterly EBITDA. Annualised basis, this impact is around two odd percent. Assuming that the food business is 55% of SOTP, you tend to get a number of almost about 1.5% to 2%. So, as of now, this impact is very small. But if the number of restaurants shutting down moves ahead from 15% to 25%, these numbers can swing miserably. And if the situation prolongs for two or three months, these numbers could change massively in a negative manner.”QSRs and Electric Advantage
Taurani emphasised that QSRs are better positioned to adapt. “For QSR perspective, they are more dynamic in nature. The first thing is rationalise the menu, try and have menus with lower dependence on LPG. Second is reduce the number of work hours. Third, most QSR companies are trying to get electrical equipment inside the stores. For example, in the case of fried chicken, they have got 60% dependence on electric equipment, 40% LPG. So somewhere they are trying to increase the dependence on electric equipment going ahead.”

He also noted a potential shift in consumer orders: “For someone who was ordering a dosa or a pav bhaji which is LPG dependent, they could now opt for a burger if it is not available in that area. So, QSR could see a positive bias in terms of order traffic.”

On pricing, Taurani said: “I do not think so. There has been no change on pricing as of now.” He further explained that QSRs represent only 10-12% of order volumes, with 80% dependence on standalone restaurants.

Food Tech and Quick Commerce Concerns
While the food business impact is modest, Taurani highlighted concerns in quick commerce (Qcom). “Obviously, there are worries on the food side, but as I mentioned, it does not translate to numbers in a big manner. The bigger worry is Qcom valuations have come off sharply. One reason is fear about management change—Albinder coming in, Deepinder going away—which investors fear could bring strategic changes, which we do not believe. A second fear is competitive intensity from Zepto and Ecom players. Amazon and Flipkart are entering Qcom, scaling up dark stores and assortment. But Ecom and Qcom will coexist; Ecom is top-down, Qcom is bottom-up. We do not believe Ecom will scale up in a very big manner.”

Taurani concluded on a reassuring note for Blinkit: “If Flipkart, Amazon, and others together account for less than 10% of Qcom market share, there is enough for Blinkit. They may not lose market share in a big manner. So Blinkit is quite safeguarded here as the Qcom business is concerned.”

While LPG supply challenges may temporarily affect smaller F&B players, large QSRs and well-positioned food tech companies are likely to weather the storm. Adaptability, menu rationalisation, and the shift towards electric equipment are helping them navigate the crisis, keeping overall impact limited.

Alcohol-free beer has been added to the UK’s official inflation basket, in a move that underlines changing consumer habits and the growing shift towards healthier lifestyles.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed that the product will join more than 760 goods and services used to calculate key inflation measures, including the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), the Retail Prices Index (RPI) and CPIH — its preferred gauge of price growth.

The inclusion reflects a marked rise in demand for low- and no-alcohol alternatives, with the ONS citing increased sales volumes, wider product ranges and greater shelf space dedicated to alcohol-free options across UK retailers. The move is widely seen as recognition of a broader cultural shift, particularly among younger consumers and professionals prioritising wellbeing.

Alongside alcohol-free beer, hummus and pet grooming have also been added to the basket, highlighting how evolving lifestyle choices are reshaping the cost-of-living calculation. The ONS said hummus had gained prominence due to its growing popularity among health-conscious consumers, with UK spending on the product estimated to have reached around £170 million in 2024.

Pet grooming, meanwhile, reflects the continued boom in pet ownership, particularly among smaller, high-maintenance breeds, and the increasing willingness of households to spend on services rather than just goods. Analysts note that services inflation has become a key driver of overall price pressures in recent years, making its accurate representation in the basket increasingly important.

The annual update to the basket is designed to ensure inflation data remains aligned with real-world spending patterns. Items that decline in relevance are removed to make room for emerging trends. This year, bottled premium lager purchased in pubs and restaurants has been dropped, alongside traditional sheets of wrapping paper, which are being replaced by rolls that better reflect modern purchasing behaviour.

Other additions include dashboard cameras and motorhomes, both of which have seen rising demand. Dashcams have grown in popularity as motorists seek to reduce insurance costs and improve security, while motorhomes have benefited from lifestyle shifts following the pandemic and a rise in early retirement trends.

The updated basket will be used in the next set of inflation figures, due to be published on 25 March, and comes at a time of heightened sensitivity around the cost of living. While inflation eased to 3 per cent in January, down from 3.4 per cent in December, economists expect renewed upward pressure in the coming months, driven in part by surging global energy prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict.

The Bank of England, which targets inflation at 2 per cent, is widely expected to hold interest rates at 3.75 per cent at its next meeting, as policymakers weigh the risk of rising fuel and transport costs feeding through into broader price increases.

In parallel with the basket update, the ONS is also modernising how inflation is measured. A new system will draw on vast datasets from retailers, analysing around 300 million price points across more than one billion products each month. This marks a significant shift away from traditional in-store price collection, which relied on around 25,000 manually gathered data points.

The move towards real-time, high-volume data is expected to improve the accuracy and responsiveness of inflation reporting, particularly in fast-moving sectors such as groceries, energy and consumer goods.

For households, however, the underlying message remains unchanged. Despite some easing in headline inflation, rising energy costs and global uncertainty mean the pressure on everyday spending is unlikely to disappear any time soon. The inclusion of alcohol-free beer, hummus and pet grooming may signal changing lifestyles, but it also reflects the broader reality that the cost of modern living continues to evolve.

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Shares of Alkyl Amines Chemicals tanked as much as 4% to their day’s low of Rs 1,212 on the BSE on Tuesday after the company said it has temporarily suspended the manufacturing of certain products at its Patalganga, Kurkumbh and Dahej plants due to the non-availability of ammonia, a key raw material used in the production of methylamines, ethylamines and their derivatives.

The company said the disruption stems from the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which has affected global logistics networks as well as international crude oil and petrochemicals supply chains. The situation has also impacted the availability of liquefied natural gas (LNG), a critical input used in ammonia production.

As a result, several ammonia manufacturers have invoked force majeure and indicated their inability to supply the product during this period. Due to the shortage of ammonia, Alkyl Amines said this situation also constitutes a force majeure event arising from the ongoing geopolitical conflict.

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However, the manufacture of other products at these sites that do not require ammonia will continue.

The company said the financial and operational impact of the ongoing force majeure event cannot be estimated at this stage. It added that it is closely monitoring developments and exploring alternative sourcing arrangements for ammonia, and will inform stock exchanges of any material updates.

Alkyl Amines share price performance

The stock has been a market laggard, plunging 19% in the last one month. The share price has fallen nearly 40% in the last six months and is down over 20% since the beginning of the year.

Alkyl Amines Q3 snapshot

Net profit for the quarter stood at Rs 43 crore, marking a 1.4% decline from Rs 43.6 crore reported in the same period last year.

Revenue fell 4.6% year-on-year to Rs 354 crore, compared with Rs 371.2 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.

EBITDA slipped 0.8% to Rs 67 crore from Rs 70.4 crore a year earlier, indicating some pressure on operating performance. As a result, EBITDA margin eased slightly to 18.9% from 19% in Q3 last year.

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