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Gold rose over 1% on Monday, rebounding from a more than one-week low hit in the previous session, as Brent crude oil prices fell after Iran claimed progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks, easing concerns around inflation and higher interest rates.

FUNDAMENTALS

Spot gold was up 1.2% at $4,209.03 per ounce, as of 0112 GMT. U.S. gold futures for ‌August delivery ⁠fell 0.5% ⁠to $4,225.80.

An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said good progress has been made during the quadrilateral talks in Switzerland, according to Iran’s Press TV.

Iran-U.S. peace talks in Switzerland stretched into their second day on Monday, after a tense opening marked by Tehran’s announcement it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. President Donald Trump repeating his threats to resume attacks on Iran.

⁠Brent crude ‌futures fell 0.5% after Iran claimed progress in peace talks, easing fears of elevated inflation and higher-for-longer global interest rates.

Federal Reserve ⁠Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on inflation in last week’s press conference, without any more-nuanced commentary about what might clear the bar for a rate hike, led investors to conclude an increase was coming soon and begin bidding up bond yields.
Most global brokerages are betting on the Fed to hold interest rates steady for the rest of 2026, reversing from expectations of two interest rate cuts at the ‌start of the year, as policymakers navigate elevated inflation risks and a resilient labor market.
Gold demand was modest in India last week as prices fell to their ⁠lowest level in two-and-a-half months and remained volatile, while top consumer China flipped to a discount.
Swiss gold exports fell 9% in May from the previous month as lower shipments to India and Hong Kong offset higher deliveries to Britain and China, Swiss customs data showed.

Spot silver rose 2.6% to $66.60 per ounce, platinum gained 1.3% to $1,684.85, and palladium was up 1.5% at $1,276.88.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)

0100 China Loan Prime Rate 1Y,

5Y Jun 1400 EU Consumer Confid Flash Jun

The dollar was firm on Monday as uncertainty clouded a tentative U.S.-Iran peace deal following threats from President Donald Trump to restart the war in the Middle East and Tehran’s announcement it had closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite rising tensions, U.S.-Iran peace talks stretched into their second day in Switzerland under the terms of a memorandum of understanding reached last week to extend a ceasefire from April for at least another 60 days.

Chris Weston, head of research at ‌Pepperstone, said it ⁠was not ⁠surprising how quickly adherence to the terms of the deal had broken down. “Ultimately, what matters to markets is the flow of cargo through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Shipping data showed the number of ships that passed through the waterway fell sharply on Sunday after Tehran said it had closed the strait. That lifted oil prices with Brent crude futures climbing 1.30% to $81.62 a barrel. [O/R]

“The physical market remains tight and that should provide some support, but flows in FX and commodities, particularly gold, will continue to be heavily influenced by developments in the energy ⁠complex,” Weston ‌said.

Sterling eased in early trading as traders assessed the political tumult in Britain, where Prime Minister Keir Starmer was considering his political future after rival Andy Burnham’s decisive election victory to ⁠parliament.
The pound was 0.24% weaker at $1.32055, while the euro softened 0.1% to $1.1462. The Australian dollar was last down 0.19% at $0.70035, while the New Zealand dollar last bought $0.573. Markets will be focused on Burnham’s views on fiscal policy and whether there will be any relaxation of the current fiscal rules, Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategists said.

“A loosening in fiscal rules would likely be poorly received by the UK bond market and weigh on pound,” they said in a note.

The Japanese yen slipped to 161.53 per dollar, hovering near a two-year low reached last week. A break beyond 161.96 would take the ‌yen to its weakest level since 1986.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that authorities were prepared to respond appropriately to currency moves at any time, reiterating their previous stance.

“The MOF may be getting sore necks watching ⁠USD/JPY surge into the 2024 high,” said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at StoneX. “Yet they may also feel powerless to do anything about it – as intervening against the tide of a hawkish Fed and strong U.S. fundamentals could prove costly and futile.”

The yen has erased gains made after a round of interventions from April 30, as a hawkish tilt by the Federal Reserve has led traders to ramp up bets on rate increases this year.

Treasuries remained under pressure on Monday with yields on 2-year notes rising to their highest since early 2025 at 4.2276%. Traders are anticipating 43 basis points of hikes this year with a 25 bp increase fully priced in by September.

MUMBAI: The National Housing Bank (NHB) has begun a formal probe into CVC Capital Partners-backed mortgage lender Aavas Financiers after preliminary inquiries uncovered loan classification irregularities, with multiple instances of loans categorised under ineligible refinancing schemes, multiple sources aware of the development told ET.

The sector regulator has recalled refinancing support worth nearly Rs 500 crore —a punitive action that has set off a sweeping leadership overhaul at the company. ET was the first to report on April 13 that managing director and CEO Sachinder Bhinder was being asked to step down, with Manu Singh — former home loans head at Kotak Mahindra Bank — set to take over. A week later, on April 20, the company confirmed Bhinder’s resignation and Singh’s appointment as the new CEO.

The NHB’s investigation found that concessional refinance meant for SC/ST borrowers had been availed against loans where the borrowers did not belong to these categories.

Aavas Financiers sees top-level churn: CFO and CRO to exit, interim replacements named

Loans were also classified as disbursed in hilly areas even though the underlying properties were not located in such regions, and non-home loans had been misclassified as home loans to access preferential funding — a trifecta of classification failures that triggered the regulator’s action, sources said.

Aavas Financiers confirmed the NHB investigation, though it stopped short of acknowledging the specific findings.
“The NHB, in the ordinary course, conducts periodic audits and inspections of housing finance companies, including Aavas Financiers, and one such inspection is presently underway and has not yet been concluded,” the company said in a statement.The company added that it has not received any direction from NHB requiring it to repay any funding lines.

Sources, however, said the scale of the irregularities went well beyond what might be expected in a routine inspection.

Singapore-based fintech company Aleta aims to expand operations into India

“The regulator’s concerns were not limited to isolated instances. The inspection identified multiple cases where loans were categorised under refinance schemes that they were not eligible for, resulting in the withdrawal of refinance support and prompting a wider review of internal controls,” said a person aware of the development.

TOP EXECUTIVES TOLD TO RESIGN
CVC Capital Partners, which holds a majority stake of over 50% in Aavas Financiers, has shown the door to chief financial officer Ghanshyam Rawat and chief risk officer Ashutosh Atre in the wake of the NHB’s findings. Sources said both officials were asked to resign on June 15, though the disclosures were made only after a hastily called board meeting on June 21.

The company subsequently informed stock exchanges that it had appointed Ghanshyam Gupta as interim chief financial officer and Punit Purushottam Agarwal as interim chief risk officer, with effect from June 22.

The exits are the latest in a series of senior management departures that paint a troubling picture of how the company was conducting its business.

In the span of barely two months, Aavas Financiers has replaced its MD and CEO, CFO and CRO — an unprecedented churn at the top that reflects the depth of the crisis the company is navigating. Markets have also taken note of the turbulence. With a market capitalisation of approximately Rs 11,673 crore, the stock has declined nearly 32% from its 52-week high of Rs 2,152, trading at around Rs 1,472 — reflecting deepening investor concerns around governance, growth visibility and execution amid the ongoing management churn, according toexchange data.

ET Intelligence Group: The Reliance Mukesh Ambani group (RIL) will likely command nearly 7% of the total market capitalisation of companies listed on the BSE after the initial public offering (IPO) of its telecom and digital media arm, Jio Platforms (JioP) compared with the current share of under 4%. This reflects a significant value unlocking for investors. In addition, at the higher end of the anticipated valuation band for JioP, the RIL group will host India’s two largest companies by market cap – Reliance Industries with market cap of ₹17.7 trillion and JioP with an estimated market cap of ₹14 trillion. HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, and ICICI Bank with respective market caps of ₹12 trillion, ₹11.6 trillion and ₹9.7 trillion will be next on the ranking tally.

The combined market cap of the two companies of the RIL group is expected to be around ₹32 trillion. It will nearly match the current combined market value of ₹33 trillion for HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, and ICICI Bank.

At present, the market cap of the companies listed on the BSE is nearly ₹478 trillion. For the Nifty 50 set of companies, the market cap is ₹194 trillion, which implies that the RIL group’s market cap will be over 16% of the benchmark index’s market value.

Globally, Elon Musk promoted Tesla and SpaceX together account for nearly 5% of the total market cap of the US companies. After a strong debut on Nasdaq on June 12, SpaceX commands a market cap of $2.4 trillion, while Tesla’s is $1.3 trillion. The market cap of listed companies in the US is over $77 trillion, according to the data from Bloomberg.
Internationally, technology led companies have been driving overall market valuations to record levels. For instance, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the top South Korean companies based on market value, account for nearly 50% of the country’s market cap. In the case of Taiwan, chip maker TSMC contributes over 40% to the country’s market cap.

Saugata Bhattacharya, external member of the monetary policy committee (MPC), discusses with Rozebud Gonsalves about the second-order impact of input costs, expected financial conditions after the new FCNR(B) deposit and external commercial borrowing (ECB) incentives, and the inflation-growth trade off. Edited excerpts.

With crude oil prices falling, would growth be better than the central bank forecast? If yes, then do you think that the need to hike rates is lesser?

Yes, RBI growth and inflation forecasts were based, among other assumptions, on crude oil prices averaging $95 / barrel, which, based on oil futures, now appear likely to be lower. However, disruptions in supply chains could persist for some time, and hence it is difficult to predict the extent of growth recovery in FY27.

The MPC minutes have said that second-order input cost transmission getting embedded in retail inflation will have to be monitored. What would be the first signs visible via data that would suggest visible impact?
Second order effects are likely to manifest in core (non-food and fuel) CPI components, particularly in underlying components (excluding precious metals), indicating the extent of higher input cost pass through to retail inflation. However, it is difficult to forecast second order effects of higher input costs, which will depend on demand elasticities, input substitution and other pass through variables.The RBI Governor’s statement noted a revised FY27 core inflation at 4.7%, up from 4.4% at the April review, and headline at 5.1%, up from 4.6%. Factoring in price trends in other components, it might be possible to estimate specific inflation components.

Are current financial conditions already restrictive enough that a rate hike is unnecessary?

Although the policy repo rate is currently only 15 basis points above the FY27 forecast CPI inflation, money market and short term interest rates remain higher. RBI has also maintained system liquidity at appropriate levels. In addition, the gap between the repo rate and longer term bond yields have also risen much beyond steady state levels. Although MPC quarter wise forecasts of CPI inflation peaks in Q3 FY27, close to the upper band of the target, underlying inflation remains much lower and there are little signs of the economy overheating.
Have conditions eased after the FCNR(B) and ECB packages? Would strong inflows from these schemes reduce the need for any future monetary tightening?
Prima facie, the expected foreign currency inflows will add to autonomous domestic liquidity if even some of the inflows are absorbed by the central bank to replenish its foreign currency reserves. However, financial conditions will depend on RBI’s system liquidity management.Can it be said that growth is a bigger concern for the RBI in the current scenario, especially since inflation is projected at 5.1% and the repo rate is at 5.25%?
At the time of the MPC review, there were risks to both inflation and growth. While high frequency indicators suggested continuing resilience, they indicated a loss of momentum. This was the reason FY27 GDP forecast was a lower 6.6%, compared to the then FY26 estimate of 7.6%.