Connect with us

Business

Interest rate rise likely if Iran war goes on, says Bailey

Published

on

Bank of England set to hold rates as inflation rise cools cut expectations

The Bank of England has warned that interest rates are likely to rise if the war in Iran continues, with inflation now on course to reach 4 per cent. Its nine-member monetary policy committee voted 6 to 3 yesterday to leave borrowing costs at 3.75 per cent, the sixth hold in a row.

The decision was expected by markets and the pound traded flat against the dollar after the announcement.

The Bank expects inflation to rise to more than double its 2 per cent target in the early months of next year, because of the surge in global oil and gas prices since the Middle East conflict began more than six months ago. More than half of the overshoot is down to the war in Iran, the committee said.

Free newsletters
Advertisement

The stories that matter to UK business, straight to your inbox.

Advertisement

Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, said that the longer hostilities continued, “the bigger the impact it will have on inflation, and the more likely it is we will need to raise Bank Rate to ensure that inflation falls back to our 2 per cent target”.

In a statement explaining his vote to hold, Bailey wrote that there was now a “more prominent” upside inflation risk because of the re-intensification of fighting between the United States and Iran in recent weeks, adding that there seemed now to be a “loss of urgency to find solutions”.

The Office for National Statistics reported this week that inflation jumped to 3.1 per cent on an annual basis in August, up from 2.9 per cent the previous month.

The committee said it was not overly concerned about wage growth or company profit margins, the so-called second-round effects that typically occur after an inflation shock.

Advertisement

Bailey was one of six members who voted to keep policy unchanged. Huw Pill, the Bank’s chief economist, and the external members Catherine Mann and Megan Greene voted to lift the base rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4 per cent.

UK government borrowing costs fell after the announcement. The yield on the benchmark ten-year bond slid by 0.10 percentage points to 5.2 per cent and the yield on the 30-year bond dipped by 0.14 percentage points to 5.72 per cent. Yields move inversely to prices. The FTSE 100 gained 0.6 per cent.

The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil dropped by 2.3 per cent to $103.40, down from recent highs near $110, leading to corresponding falls in European and US sovereign bond yields.

Dani Stoilova, European economist at BNP Paribas, said: “The MPC remains hesitant to hike, unlike other major central banks.”

Advertisement

Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that the committee’s focus on the upside risks of inflation indicated that “a November hike [is] highly likely unless energy prices fall sharply”, adding that another rate rise would come in February. The committee next meets on 5 November.

Alongside the conflict, the Bank warned of stronger-than-feared food price inflation because of climate change and the El Niño weather pattern, of the Russia and Ukraine war disrupting global grain supplies, and of excessive demand for components used in the roll-out of artificial intelligence.

Most of the committee thought Britain was at least nearing the adverse scenario mapped out at its previous meeting in July, in which the Middle East war causes a lasting increase in energy prices and requires several interest rate rises.

The Bank said GDP was now expected to grow by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter of this year, after a series of better-than-expected monthly output readings. In the first six months of the year, Britain expanded at the fastest pace among the G7 economies.

Advertisement

The Bank has also proposed to the Treasury a restructuring of its bond-selling programme, known as quantitative tightening, that would shrink its balance sheet by an average of £46bn a year until 2034. The Treasury must decide whether to implement the package by April 2027.

The US Federal Reserve lifted its main interest rate on Wednesday for the first time in three years, to a range of 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its main interest rate today, after the European Central Bank did so last week.

Amy Ingham
About the author

Amy Ingham

Amy Ingham is a reporter at Business Matters, covering UK business news with a focus on breaking news, business policy, late payments and insolvency. She joined the magazine in 2026 after completing the NCTJ Diploma in Journalism at Harlow College’s journalism school. Her recent reporting includes British Steel’s nationalisation and its impact on SME suppliers, the decline in late payments by large firms, and Insolvency Service director disqualifications. Reach her at aingham@cbmeg.co.uk.

Advertisement

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Business

Voting begins in Russian parliamentary election which Putin has cast as barometer of support for war

Published

on


Voting begins in Russian parliamentary election which Putin has cast as barometer of support for war

Continue Reading

Business

Motilal Oswal sees surging steel prices to offset cost inflation for metal majors. Here are its top stock picks

Published

on

Motilal Oswal sees surging steel prices to offset cost inflation for metal majors. Here are its top stock picks
As steel prices surge, Motilal Oswal Financial Services sees the domestic steel cycle shifting from a volume-led recovery to pricing- and cost-led earnings growth.

In its latest report released on Thursday, the brokerage said prices have remained firm in the ongoing second quarter of FY27 despite seasonal weakness, supported by lean channel inventories, maintenance-led supply constraints and rising input costs.

Domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices jumped 7% month-on-month to a four-year high of Rs 62,000 per tonne in September, while cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices rose 8% MoM to Rs 70,500 per tonne.

Rebar prices also recovered sharply to Rs 56,800 per tonne in September, from Rs 48,850 per tonne in June. This rally signals a broad-based pricing strength across both flat and long products, Motilal Oswal said.

Advertisement

The domestic brokerage attributed the improvement in steel prices mainly to cost pass-through, adding that input costs (coking coal, iron ore and pellet) have simultaneously increased, raising the cost base for steelmakers. Premium Australian coking coal price has risen to $300 per tonne from $260 per tonne in June 2026, implying that every $10 per tonne increase in coking coal adds nearly $7-8 per tonne to input costs, creating a margin headwind. Iron ore and pellets prices also remained firm during the muted demand cycle, it added.


Also read | India protects over 80% of steel exports to EU as 1.9 MT country quota is secured; residual access could push total to 2.8 MT

Strong steel demand outpaces production growth

Domestic steel volumes, meanwhile, remained fundamentally healthy. India produced around 67.4 million tonnes of finished steel during the period between April and August this year, up 3.7% YoY, while finished-steel consumption grew by a stronger 7.2% YoY to 70.3 million tonnes, according to the brokerage. The faster growth in consumption relative to production has kept the domestic market relatively tight, it added.Motilal Oswal noted that the global volume backdrop is equally supportive from a supply perspective. Global crude steel production declined 0.6% YoY to around 1.08 bt during the period between January and July this year, with China’s output falling 3.1% YoY to nearly 577 mt. The structural decline in Chinese steel output is important for global market balance given China’s major role in global steel production and exports, the domestic brokerage noted.

Why Motilal Oswal is constructive on domestic steel pricing

“In the near term, we remain constructive on domestic steel pricing as we believe the domestic steel cycle is transitioning from volume-led recovery to pricing and cost-led earnings growth. Lean inventories, constrained supply, resilient underlying consumption and global cost inflation provide the foundation for higher steel prices. If postmonsoon demand normalizes as expected, the sector could enter 2HFY27 with a considerably stronger realization environment than the current consensus assumptions imply,” Motilal Oswal said.

The domestic brokerage believes the immediate earnings trajectory will be backed by positive realisation momentum, while margin sustainability will depend on the mills’ ability to pass through further price increases as the impact of cost inflation will be evident steadily in the coming quarters. Companies with stronger cost positions, captive raw materials and greater downstream or value-added exposure should be better positioned to defend margins, it added.

Advertisement

Also read | Metals emerge as 2026’s top sectoral bet, IT, FMCG struggle

Motilal Oswal’s top steel picks

Motilal Oswal named JSW Steel and Tata Steel as its top picks among the steel companies. JSW Steel shares have gained around 9% in 2026 so far and 14% in one year. In the longer term, the shares of the company jumped 58% in three years and 87% in five years. The company has a market capitalisation of around Rs 3.12 lakh crore.

Tata Steel shares, meanwhile, rose around 3% in 2026 so far. In the longer term, the shares of the Tata Group company have gained 9% in one year, 44% in three years and more than 35% in five years. The company has a market capitalisation of around Rs 2.34 lakh crore.

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Agile Energy Launches Australia’s First Energy Pain Index Revealing the True Cost of Business Power

Published

on

CEO Jack Kapoor

Australian businesses are being warned they could be paying tens of thousands of dollars a year in unnecessary electricity costs because of a little-known charge buried deep within their power bills that most owners have never heard of.

New research released by Agile Energy as part of its inaugural Australia’s Energy Pain Index has revealed that demand charges, not electricity consumption, are now one of the biggest drivers of commercial power bills, with identical businesses paying almost $30,000 a year more simply because of where they are connected to the electricity network.

The inaugural Australia’s Energy Pain Index is the first report of its kind, providing an unprecedented snapshot of the energy cost pressures facing Australian businesses. Published quarterly by Agile Energy, the Index measures the scale of commercial energy challenges across the country, delivering a level of transparency never before available to the market while exposing the significant cost disparities and inequities businesses face based on their location, network and energy profile.

Agile Energy is a leading Australian clean-energy company, delivering large-scale solar, battery and electrification solutions for the commercial, industrial, healthcare and property sectors. The company designs, finances, builds and operates integrated clean-energy systems that help businesses reduce costs, decarbonise operations and participate in virtual power networks. With deep engineering expertise, financial discipline and a long-term ownership mindset, Agile Energy is redefining how organisations generate, store and trade electricity creating measurable financial and environmental performance across Australia’s transition to a smarter, more resilient energy future.

Advertisement

According to Agile Energy founder and CEO Jack Kapoor, Australia’s leading expert on commercial solar and battery solutions and energy as a service, the findings expose one of the least understood costs facing Australian businesses.

“Most business owners think their electricity bill is determined by how much power they use,” Kapoor said.

“In reality, one of the biggest costs can come from a single 30-minute period during the month.

“That one half-hour can determine thousands, or even tens of thousands of dollars in additional charges.”

Advertisement

The bill you don’t see coming

Unlike traditional electricity charges, which are based on total energy consumption, demand charges are calculated using the highest level of electricity a business draws during a single 30-minute period across the billing cycle.

“It isn’t about how much electricity you use over the month, it is about the single biggest moment you use it.

“If your air conditioning, refrigeration, machinery and equipment all happen to switch on together during one hot afternoon, that brief spike can increase your bill for the entire month.”

Advertisement

One half-hour can cost an extra $16,000 a year

Agile Energy modelled a typical commercial business using 50,000 kWh of electricity per month.

Keeping total electricity consumption exactly the same, increasing peak demand from 120kW to 220kW during just one half-hour lifted the monthly bill by $1,350.

“If that peak becomes part of normal operations, the business isn’t paying an extra $1,350 once,” Kapoor said.

Advertisement

“It’s paying an extra $16,200 every year without consuming a single additional kilowatt-hour of electricity. That surprises almost every business owner we speak to because we are looking at the same business, same equipment and same electricity however the difference is nearly $30,000.”

Perhaps the most surprising finding from Australia’s Energy Pain Index is how dramatically location alone can affect electricity costs.

Using an identical commercial business with exactly the same operating profile, Agile Energy found the annual power bill could vary by almost $30,000 purely because of which electricity distribution network serviced the property.

“Nothing about the business changes. Not the staff, not the equipment and not the operating hours. The only difference is the network they’re connected to.

Advertisement

“Many business owners don’t even know which distribution network they’re on, yet it could be costing them tens of thousands of dollars every year.”

Victoria emerges as Australia’s energy pain capital

The research found Victorian businesses experience the highest demand charges in Australia, with some network tariffs exceeding the cheapest New South Wales demand charges by more than 60 times.

“Businesses located only a few kilometres apart can be paying completely different demand charges because they’re connected to different network infrastructure,” Kapoor said.

Advertisement

“That’s an extraordinary situation, and very few businesses realise it’s happening.”

Why cutting electricity use often isn’t enough

Kapoor said many businesses spend years replacing lighting, upgrading air conditioning and investing in more efficient equipment, only to see little change in their electricity bills.

“Traditional energy-efficiency measures reduce how much electricity you consume. They don’t necessarily reduce the highest demand peak that determines these charges,” Kapoor said.

Advertisement

“That’s why many businesses are disappointed after investing heavily in efficiency upgrades.”

Batteries are becoming one of the smartest financial investments

Kapoor said the most effective way to reduce demand charges is to reduce peak demand itself.

“Battery storage allows businesses to use stored electricity during those peak periods instead of drawing large amounts of power from the grid all at once,” he said.

Advertisement

“When combined with commercial solar, businesses aren’t simply buying cheaper electricity. They’re actively reshaping how their electricity bill is calculated and that’s a completely different conversation from simply installing solar panels.”

Time for Australian businesses to understand their bills

Kapoor believes Australia’s Energy Pain Index will become an important quarterly benchmark highlighting where businesses are experiencing the greatest electricity cost pressures.

“The first step to reducing energy costs is understanding what you’re actually paying for,” Kapoor said.

Advertisement

“Most businesses obsess over cents per kilowatt-hour because that’s what retailers advertise.

“In many cases, the biggest opportunity isn’t reducing electricity consumption, it’s eliminating the hidden demand charges they never knew existed.

“As energy prices continue rising, understanding how your bill is constructed may become one of the most valuable financial decisions a business can make.”

About Australia’s Energy Pain Index

Advertisement

Australia’s Energy Pain Index is Agile Energy’s new quarterly analysis of commercial electricity cost pressures across Australia. It examines electricity pricing trends, network demand charges, industry impacts and emerging cost drivers to help businesses better understand where energy costs are rising and what practical strategies are available to reduce them.

About Agile Energy

Agile Energy is one of Australia’s fastest-growing clean-energy companies, delivering large-scale solar, battery and electrification solutions for the commercial, industrial, healthcare and property sectors. The company designs, finances, builds and operates integrated clean-energy systems that help businesses reduce costs, decarbonise operations and participate in virtual power networks. With deep engineering expertise, financial discipline and a long-term ownership mindset, Agile Energy is redefining how organisations generate, store and trade electricity creating measurable financial and environmental performance across Australia’s transition to a smarter, more resilient energy future. Further information can be found at: agileenergy.com.au

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Rogue's Gallery: The Battle To Keep Bad AI Actors In Check

Published

on

AI growth Risk

Rogue's Gallery: The Battle To Keep Bad AI Actors In Check

Continue Reading

Business

The Fed’s Hawkish Pivot Didn’t Fix The 10-Year Yield; S&P 500 Slides (Live Coverage)

Published

on

The Fed's Hawkish Pivot Didn't Fix The 10-Year Yield; S&P 500 Slides (Live Coverage)

The Federal Reserve hiked its key interest rate, as expected, and a majority of policymakers expect to do so again later this year, new projections showed. The S&P 500 and 10-year yield initially responded well to the hawkish Fed meeting outcome, but things deteriorated toward the end of Chairman Kevin Warsh’s news conference. The 10-year Treasury yield, whose rise to…

Copyright ©2026 Investor’s Business Daily, LLC. All rights reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Continue Reading

Business

Green light for $240m Kojonup battery

Published

on

Green light for $240m Kojonup battery

A panel has approved a $240 million proposal to build a battery energy storage system in the Great Southern region.

Continue Reading

Business

Shuka Minerals assigns convertible loan to new investor and CEO

Published

on


Shuka Minerals assigns convertible loan to new investor and CEO

Continue Reading

Business

Thailand’s Healthcare Expansion Strategy – Thailand Business News

Published

on

Asia-Pacific Healthcare Crisis: Burnout, Demand and an 18-Month Warning

Thailand’s Public Health Ministry plans to establish a Health Marketplace connecting public-private services and improve healthcare access through data initiatives. It will attract foreign patients via flexible medical visas and partner with pharmaceutical companies through investment agreements requiring technology transfers and local manufacturing. An MSD agreement on HIV medicine production marks Thailand’s first major commitment to becoming a clinical research and manufacturing hub.

Key Points

Access and Revenue Enhancement:

  • Health Marketplace platform to connect public and private healthcare services
  • Data & Access initiative linking national health databases
  • Improved i-Claim system for private insurance at public hospitals
  • Target Thai, foreign, and overseas government patients from nearby regions (Bhutan, Maldives, South Asia)
  • Flexible medical visas matching treatment duration with advance electronic appointments

Research and Development Hub:

  • Attract 5+ billion baht in investment, increasing GDP by 0.05%
  • One-Stop Approval mechanism for streamlined applications
  • Fast Track & Regulatory Sandbox for accelerated innovation
  • Establish Thailand as clinical research base with global partnerships
  • Clinical trials and R&D initiatives to attract international investment

Manufacturing and Strategic Partnerships:

  • Target 37 billion baht in new investment, increasing GDP by 0.25%
  • Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Roadmap reducing import reliance
  • Technology transfer programs with drugmakers
  • Offset Policy requiring overseas suppliers to invest, transfer technology, or create employment
  • MSD agreement as first “quick win” involving HIV medicine research and production

Healthcare Access and Medical Tourism Development


Thailand’s Public Health Ministry is implementing a comprehensive strategy to enhance healthcare accessibility and attract international patients. The initiative includes establishing a Health Marketplace that centralizes public and private healthcare services, alongside a Data & Access initiative linking national health databases to improve service delivery and inform policy decisions. The ministry will also upgrade i-Claim, the insurance reimbursement system for private claims at public hospitals. By targeting affluent Thai patients, foreign visitors, and overseas governments, particularly from neighboring regions like South Asia, Bhutan, and the Maldives, Thailand aims to generate sustainable revenue for its health system. A key proposal involves making medical visas more flexible to match individual treatment durations, while incorporating electronic appointments, advance referrals, and immigration data integration to streamline the patient experience and ensure security.

Market Expansion and Sector Collaboration


The ministry emphasized that both public and private sectors have substantial room to grow without direct competition. Thailand’s total healthcare spending reaches 4.59% of GDP, exceeding 800 billion baht, while public and private hospital sectors combined account for only one-third of this figure. Public Health Minister Pattana highlighted that the ministry’s budget totals 350-360 billion baht, compared to private hospital groups’ combined revenue of approximately 300 billion baht. This significant gap indicates enormous potential to attract additional healthcare spending through strategic market positioning. Rather than competing, the sectors can complement each other by serving different patient segments and expanding overall market capacity.


Research, Manufacturing, and International Investment

The ministry is positioning Thailand as a clinical research hub through the Research and Development Hub, targeting over 5 billion baht in new investment and 0.05% GDP growth. Initiatives include establishing a One-Stop Approval mechanism, implementing Fast Track & Regulatory Sandbox measures, and creating a Data & Research Platform. The manufacturing pillar aims to attract 37 billion baht in investment and achieve 0.25% GDP growth.

Through an Offset Policy, international pharmaceutical companies must reciprocate government procurement benefits via investments, technology transfers, or employment creation. Preliminary negotiations with ten global drugmakers, including Pfizer, Roche, and Novartis, have yielded MSD’s September 2026 memorandum of understanding to expand clinical research and transfer HIV medicine production technology to Thailand’s Government Pharmaceutical Organization, making Thailand one of only two countries producing this medicine.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Kore Digital shares crash 10% as Sebi alleges Rs 541 cr revenue misstatement, bars CEO, CFO and MD from capital market

Published

on

Kore Digital shares crash 10% as Sebi alleges Rs 541 cr revenue misstatement, bars CEO, CFO and MD from capital market
Shares of SME-listed Kore Digital plunged 10% on Friday after market regulator Sebi passed an interim order against the company and three of its key managerial personnel after its investigation found evidence of manipulated financial statements, non-genuine subsidiaries, suspicious accounting entries and diversion of preferential issue proceeds.

Sebi on Thursday barred Kore Digital MD Ravindra Doshi, CEO Chaitanya Doshi and CFO Kashmira Doshi from trading in Kore Digital shares until further orders. The regulator has also barred the company and the three individuals from accessing the securities market to raise money from the public. The company’s shares hit the lower circuit at Rs 78.75 apiece on Friday morning.

Sebi has also directed the National Stock Exchange (NSE) not to allow Kore Digital to migrate from its SME platform, NSE Energe, to the mainboard segment until regulatory clearance. A forensic auditor will be appointed to examine the company’s books from the date of its listing in June 2023 till March 31, 2026.

Also read | Sebi bars Kore Digital promoters over alleged Rs 541 crore revenue misstatement

Advertisement

What are Sebi’s allegations against Kore Digital?

At the centre of Sebi’s investigation are three companies that were allegedly acquired by Kore Digital and whose revenues were later added to Kore’s financial statements. These include Franken Telecom, Wolter Infratech and KDL Realinfra. The company’s revenue from operations rose from Rs 21.27 crore in FY23 to Rs 408 crore in FY26. On average, around 75% of consolidated revenue came from subsidiaries.


Sebi alleged that Kore’s consolidated financial statements were misstated by around Rs 541.3 crore during FY25 and FY26, representing roughly 73% of its total revenue over the period. The market regulator highlighted that the three subsidiaries were incorporated just months before Kore acquired them. They shared the same registered address and had either little or no filing history with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs.
GST registrations of Franken and Wolter were cancelled shortly after registration, while KDL Realinfra’s registration became inactive on the same day it was registered, according to the order.Further, surprise visits conducted by NSE in June this year failed to establish the presence of these companies at their stated addresses. Similar findings were recorded for several step-down subsidiaries and entities that had financial transactions with Kore.

Sebi’s examination also raised serious concerns about the audit records of the subsidiaries. Its investigation revealed that the audit reports carrying CA Riya Goyal’s signature and stamp were forged.

Also read |Rajesh Exports is not alone; there are many hiding behind one word called …

Advertisement

Kore Digital share price

Kore Digital is a specialised telecommunication infrastructure provider. The company debuted on the NSE Emerge platform back in June 2023. The company’s stock has fallen around 7% in a week and 51% in 2026 so far.

In the longer term, Kore Digital shares have delivered negative returns of over 62% in one year and 16% in three years. The company has a market capitalisation of a little over Rs 105 crore.

Also read |Dividend alert! Last day to buy Bharat Dynamics, Dixon Tech among 55 stocks for dividends, Do you own any?

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Exclusive-ECB’s Vujcic cools oil-fuelled bets on rate hikes

Published

on


Exclusive-ECB’s Vujcic cools oil-fuelled bets on rate hikes

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2025