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1539 ET – Oil futures end July with hefty gains as the month saw renewed Iranian attacks on shipping in a dispute with the U.S. over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Concerns that a return to negotiations could quickly reduce risk premium and lead to oversupply have kept prices from reaching the lofty levels seen in March and April. “Traders are essentially betting on two very different geopolitical outcomes, and neither one is a safe assumption right now,” says Baron Lamarre, co-founder of Index Litro and former head of trading at Petronas. “My base view is we won’t end up with either a massive glut or a full-blown supply crisis by the end of the year,” he adds. “Instead, we’re in for a period of stubbornly tight, volatile conditions that will stick around longer than the optimists are hoping.” WTI settles up 1.3% at $84.67 a barrel for a 22% monthly gain. Brent for September delivery goes off the board at $90.12 a barrel, up 1.2% on the day and up 24% from the end of June.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

Oil Futures on Track for Big Monthly Gains

0951 ET – Oil futures turn higher in early U.S. trading and are on track for hefty gains for July, which saw the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding fall apart and Iran resume attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. “All things held equal, the market should go a lot higher and led by diesel and gasoline as refinery run rates arejust too low on a lack of crude,” Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. “The reality is that we are back to a very small amount of crude versus what is needed.” WTI is up 2.2% at $85.42 a barrel. September Brent is 1.5% higher at $90.36 ahead of today’s expiry, while the October contract gains 1.8% to $88.47.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

Currency traders broadly believe that the yen’s recent strengthening reflected yen purchases by Japanese authorities, as well as speculation of a possible U.S. intervention. The U.S. Treasury Department meanwhile has informed banks that it might make currency trades on Friday to support the Japanese yen and strengthen its exchange rate against the dollar, the Wall Street Journal reported today.