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Leopold Aschenbrenner Situational Awareness fund: $45B to fire sale

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Leopold Aschenbrenner Situational Awareness fund: $45B to fire sale

Leopold Aschenbrenner

Photo: Josh Edelson

Two years ago, Leopold Aschenbrenner argued he was one of few people in the world who saw the future clearly.

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In a sprawling, 165-page essay that became required reading in Silicon Valley, the former OpenAI researcher positioned himself as a kind of prophet for the coming age of artificial super intelligence.

But this week, the limits of Aschenbrenner’s vision were on display when the AI-themed hedge fund he runs — named Situational Awareness, also the title of his viral June 2024 manifesto — ran into the harsh reality of tumbling semiconductor stocks and Wall Street margin calls.

At its peak earlier this month, his fund sat atop $45 billion in assets. By Thursday, however, after being forced to offload all of his leveraged stock bets — including hard-hit names like SK Hynix and CoreWeave — to Ken Griffin’s Citadel at a discount, the fund’s holdings plunged to around $10 billion, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

The story of Aschenbrenner’s meteoric rise and sudden fall has captivated both Wall Street and tech circles, making him the most high-profile casualty yet of the volatility accompanying the AI boom.

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A polarizing figure, his online followers saw Aschenbrenner — a Columbia University valedictorian at age 19 — as a genius of the next big thing and followed his fund’s quarterly filings for clues on hot AI stocks.

Before this month’s decline, Situational Awareness racked up gains of more than 1,000% since inception, the Wall Street Journal reported last month. The Journal said Aschenbrenner was just 24 years old.

Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness sells levered book of public investments, sources say

Meanwhile, critics pointed out that Aschenbrenner had no experience running money prior to launching his fund in July 2024, calling him more lucky than smart. Some noted that his early work experience was at the doomed crypto firm FTX, where he helped now-disgraced founder Sam Bankman-Fried run a charity out of a Bahamas penthouse.

Others on Wall Street, including former traders at global investment banks, noted that in light of reports Situational Awareness used as much as 400% leverage, the collapse wasn’t shocking.

“A lot of people saw this blow-up as a matter of not if, but when,” said Jerry Diao, who runs a Wall Street coaching firm. “Maybe his views on AI are correct in the long run, but in the public markets, you have to be prepared for the short-term.”

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The hedge fund didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment from CNBC.

Earlier this week, before the sale to Citadel, about two-thirds of Situational Awareness holdings were in long and short positions in public equities, according to one source. The rest were stakes in private companies, dominated by a multibillion-dollar Anthropic investment, the person said.

CNBC’s sources spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss nonpublic details.

The near-collapse of Situational Awareness coincides with the hedge fund manager’s wedding, set for this weekend, sources told CNBC’s David Faber. Aschenbrenner is engaged to Avital Balwit, chief of staff for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, according to a Fortune profile.

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‘Weirdness’ and ‘disagreeableness’

Born in Germany to physician parents before moving to the U.S., Aschenbrenner showed an early aptitude for math and computer science, according to profiles and podcast interviews.

He skipped several grades in the German school system, graduating high school at age 15, and as a teen at Columbia University he garnered attention for an academic paper titled, “Existential Risk and Growth.”

A Columbia classmate, Sofia Montrone, said that she hadn’t heard of Aschenbrenner before meeting him over Zoom shortly before their 2021 graduation.

“It was not like he was some prince, emerging out of the school,” Montrone told CNBC. “He was just some guy.”

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In the interaction, Montrone, who was salutatorian, said she found her classmate “child-like” and socially awkward.

Aschenbrenner has since said that his personality — what he called his own intellectual “weirdness” and “disagreeableness” — was punished in German culture. He came to see it as the source of his edge.

While at Columbia, he co-founded the school’s chapter of Effective Altruism, a philosophy popular in some tech circles that advocates for founders to make the most money possible in order to help humanity.

That network became his career pipeline, eventually leading him to work with another effective altruism proponent — Bankman-Fried — after his graduation in 2021. He worked for a stint at the Future Fund, the philanthropic arm of FTX, before the crypto firm’s collapse.

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FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (2nd L) is led away handcuffed by officers of the Royal Bahamas Police Force in Nassau, Bahamas on December 13, 2022. 

Mario Duncanson | AFP | Getty Images

In 2023, Aschenbrenner landed on OpenAI’s Superalignment team, working under Ilya Sutskever on the problem of keeping AI aligned with human interests. After a hacker breached OpenAI’s internal systems, he wrote a memo to the board warning that the company’s security wasn’t strong enough to stop foreign espionage, naming China specifically.

In 2024, the company fired Aschenbrenner after accusing him of improperly sharing confidential information, a characterization he has disputed, saying he was raising concerns about the company’s security practices.

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“I liked Leopold while at OpenAI,” Scott Aaronson, a computer scientist now at the University of Texas at Austin who previously worked on AI safety at OpenAI, told CNBC this week in an email.

“I was sorry when he got pushed out because of sharing information in a way leadership didn’t approve of,” he said. It “sounded like he was trying to do the right thing and they overreacted.”

An OpenAI spokesman declined to comment and referred to statements the company made at the time that the firm disagreed with many of Aschenbrenner’s claims.

Representatives for Columbia University and its Effective Altruism chapter didn’t respond to requests for comment.

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Stripe, Github investors

Weeks after his departure from OpenAI, Aschenbrenner turned his brief experience at the leading AI firm into a sweeping vision of where artificial intelligence, and the world, was headed.

His June 2024 essay argued that artificial general intelligence could arrive within years and that governments were badly underestimating the pace of progress. Admirers saw it as evidence that Aschenbrenner was a prodigy with valuable insight into AI’s trajectory, while critics said it overstated both the technology’s near-term capabilities and his own certainty about the future.

By July of that year, Aschenbrenner parlayed his rising fame into seed capital for his hedge fund, starting a two-year run unlike any in recent Wall Street history. He raised a reported $225 million from Stripe co-founders Patrick and John Collison, former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman, and investor Daniel Gross.

“Before long, the world will wake up,” Aschenbrenner wrote at the time, adding that only a few hundred people in the AI community knew what was coming.

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“If they are seeing the future even close to correctly,” he wrote, “we are in for a wild ride.”

— CNBC’s Kate Rooney contributed to this report.

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Grillo’s Pickles starts production in Indiana

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Grillo’s Pickles starts production in Indiana

Irresistible Foods Group subsidiary opens 155,000-sq-ft manufacturing facility.

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AMD Q2 Preview: Moment Of Truth (Rating Downgrade)

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AMD: The CPU King

AMD Q2 Preview: Moment Of Truth (Rating Downgrade)

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Historic Cornish bakery Warrens strikes deal with soft drink brand

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Business Live

The pasty maker has signed an agreement with Cornish drink producer Jolly’s

Warrens Bakery (the world’s oldest pasty maker) and Jolly’s Drinks(craft soft drinks made with local spring water) have partnered to bring a classic taste of Cornwall to Warrens’ 50 UK stores.

Warrens Bakery has struck a deal with Jolly’s Drinks(Image: PR handout)

Historic Cornish pasty maker Warrens has agreed a partnership deal with local soft drink producer Jolly’s. Under the terms of the agreement, the bakery will stock Cornish-made Jolly’s Drinks in its 50 UK stores.

Jolly’s was founded in 1986 by John Jolly in the Cornish village of Carharrack and its range of drinks are made from local spring water. The business now has a large factory in Saltash and is still family run.

Cheryl Ingram, managing director of Jolly’s Drinks, said “We’re delighted to see Jolly’s Drinks available in Warrens Bakery. As two proud Cornish brands with long-standing heritage, it’s a natural partnership that brings together the great Cornish pasty and refreshing original Cornish soft drinks.

“Both businesses share a passion for quality, tradition, and championing Cornwall, so we’re excited that customers can now enjoy a Jolly’s drink alongside a famous Warren’s pasty or bakery treat. We look forward to working together and introducing even more people to the taste of Cornwall.”

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Warrens Bakery was established on the cobbled streets of St Just in Cornwall when two Cornish families – the Warrens and the Harveys – were united in marriage in 1860.

The Helston-headquartered chain now has 50 bakery stores in high streets, railway stations and roadside locations across the UK.

Craig Wood, assistant retail director at Warrens Bakery said: “We’re thrilled to be partnering with Jolly’s to give people a delicious taste of two of Cornwall’s leading food and drink producers. It’s a perfect pairing.”

Earlier in July, Warrens opened its 50th store in Malmesbury in Wiltshire.

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The new site at the Texaco garage on Crudwell Road is the seventh petrol station concession in the Warrens Bakery and SGN Retail partnership, and follows the success of its six other petrol forecourt sites in Calcot, Didcot, Lechlade, Ludlow, Lydney and Frenchay, the company said.

Warren Bakery’s chief executive Mark Sullivan said at the time: “Our expansion into forecourts reflects how consumer habits are evolving, with people wanting speed and convenience but also quality, provenance and a better food-to-go experience. All this is now on offer at our new Malmesbury site”.

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The threat to summer holidays looming with jet fuel shortages

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BBC InDepth

Addressing the structural reasons why the UK is so dependent on imports, meanwhile, is likely to be trickier. Back in the 1970s, the country had 18 refineries – but that’s now down to four.

“I think there is probably a point in saying, actually, do we need more resilience from a homegrown perspective in terms of our capacity in the UK to be able to refine a higher proportion of our fuel?” says Skybus’ CEO Jonathan Hinkles.

The question is how that could be done. The remaining refineries have already been asked to prioritise jet fuel production. But according to Amaar Khan, “this doesn’t happen overnight, and doesn’t result in a significant increase in jet fuel output”.

One option could be to boost local production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). A synthetic fuel, it can be derived from wastes, such as old cooking oil and agricultural residues; from dedicated energy crops; or from using renewable energy to convert water and carbon dioxide into liquid hydrocarbons known as e-fuels.

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So far SAF, as the name suggests, has been promoted mainly for its environmental credentials. These can vary widely depending on the method used to make it, but in general burning SAF adds less carbon to the atmosphere than burning fossil fuels. Both the UK and the EU have mandates to significantly increase the amount of SAF used over the next 25 years.

However, the industry is in its infancy. There is relatively little SAF available at the moment, a large chunk of what we use comes from East Asia, and it is very expensive – typically trading at more than $1000 per tonne more than conventional fuel. Nevertheless, Hinkles believes if these problems can be overcome, SAF can help reduce our reliance on foreign imports.

“It really becomes a question of; can you actually get SAF? Can we scale up production of SAF at a meaningful rate in the UK or Europe to take over an increasing proportion of jet fuel supply?”, he says.

Green campaigners agree. “Increasing SAF production won’t eliminate jet fuel imports overnight,” says Tom Taylor, UK policy manager for lobby group Transport and Environment.

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“But by scaling it up, we can shift the source of aviation fuel from geopolitically sensitive fossil fuels to locally managed renewable grids and waste streams.”

That would require investment on a large scale, however, and clearly remains a long way off.

In the short term, meanwhile, dark clouds are hanging over the industry. There seems little prospect of jet fuel prices coming down quickly, and if fears of a shortage prove justified, then the aviation industry and the travellers that rely on it are heading for a turbulent summer.

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Nobody Approved Power BI. It’s Now Running Your Business.

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Poorly designed and inadequately maintained workplaces are draining the UK economy of more than £71 billion a year, according to new research from facilities and security services company Mitie.

In most small and mid-sized businesses, Power BI does not arrive as a project. There is no rollout plan, no steering group, no launch. Someone in finance discovers it, finds it instantly familiar, and builds a report.

The report is good. Other people want one. Eighteen months later there are reports everywhere, half the business relies on them, and nobody is in charge of any of it.

I have trained hundreds of new Power BI users over the years, and I see the same light-bulb moment every time. “Oh, this feels like Excel and PowerPoint!” That familiarity is exactly why the tool spreads so quickly, people are not being pushed onto it, they are pulling it into the business themselves. As adoption stories go, that is the good kind. The enthusiasm is real and it is priceless.

But here’s the thing… the same freedom that makes a tool spread is the freedom that creates the mess. Because it grew without guardrails, everyone built things their own way. And a growing business eventually meets the consequences, usually in a meeting.

The day the numbers disagree

The moment this stops being invisible is nearly always the same one. Two people bring two versions of the same figure into the same room. Sales says one number, finance says another, and the conversation that was supposed to be about the business becomes a debate about whose report is right.

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It gets called a data problem. It usually is not. Both reports are doing exactly what they were built to do, they were just built by different people, at different times, on different assumptions. One counts orders, the other counts invoices. One strips out cancellations, the other never did. Nobody decided this. It accumulated, one reasonable report at a time.

And underneath it sit the questions that quietly matter more. Who owns these reports? Who fixes the refresh that failed on Monday? Who checked what the new starter can see, and whether the margin data in that shared workspace was ever meant to be visible to everyone with the link? In an unmanaged estate, the honest answer to all of these is usually nobody.

The cost is time, trust and eventually money

None of this shows up as a line on the P&L, which is why it runs for so long. But the costs are real.

Staff time goes first. People rebuild reports that already exist because they cannot find or do not trust the originals. Someone senior spends hours reconciling two dashboards before every board meeting. Then trust goes, and this one is expensive, because once people stop believing the numbers, they stop using the reports and retreat to their own private spreadsheets, and the business is now paying for a reporting tool and running on Excel exports anyway.

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And occasionally the cost is sharper than that. A figure nobody can stand behind lands in front of the bank, an investor or an auditor, and the awkward question is not about the number. It is about whether the business is in control of its own information.

The fix is lighter than most owners fear

At this point some owners reach for the opposite extreme, lock it all down, route everything through one person, approve every report. I would gently push back on that too. I have seen over-control fail as often as chaos. Clamp down too hard and people do not stop building reports, they just stop telling you, and the mess moves somewhere you can no longer see it.

For a growing firm, the structure that works is lighter than most people fear. It looks something like this. Every report that matters has a named owner, one person who answers for the figures and one route for fixing it when it breaks. The handful of numbers the business runs on, revenue, margin, active customers, get defined once, in one agreed place that every report draws from, so the same word means the same thing everywhere. Access follows job roles rather than one-off requests and forwarded links. And somewhere, there is a simple, written answer to “how do we do reporting here”, short enough that people actually read it.

That is it. Not a committee, not a six-month programme. Microsoft’s own adoption roadmap covers this ground thoroughly and is genuinely worth a read, I have gone back to it time and time again over the years. But for a small business the heart of it fits on a page. Owners, shared definitions, sensible access, and a bit of support for the people doing the building, because the analyst who taught themselves Power BI is an asset worth investing in, not a risk to be managed.

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The stakes are about to get higher

There is one more reason to sort this now rather than later. Power BI is no longer a standalone tool. It now sits inside Microsoft Fabric, Microsoft’s wider data platform, which means the thing your business adopted for reports is increasingly connected to where data is stored, moved and prepared across the company. More capability, and more ways for an unmanaged setup to grow expensive.

This is often the point where firms bring in outside help, and having done a lot of this work, I will tell you what it should look like. When businesses explore Microsoft Fabric consulting in the UK, the first job is usually not the platform at all. It is mapping what already exists, which reports are trusted, which models are duplicated, who owns what, where the access risks sit. Moving a messy estate onto a bigger platform does not clean it up. It gives the mess a bigger stage. Diagnosis first, then the technology.

Boring is the goal

Good reporting in a growing business should be slightly boring. The figures refresh, the definitions hold, people know where to look and stop arguing about whose number is right. The meetings get shorter and go back to being about the business.

The tool that spread through your company without permission got there because it is genuinely useful. That part is a win, and the enthusiasm behind it is worth protecting. It just needs what every useful thing eventually needs, an owner, a shared set of definitions and someone paying attention. The best time to give it those was before it mattered. The second best time is before the platform underneath it gets any bigger.

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‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ box office: Record $72M preview sales

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'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' box office: Record $72M preview sales

Tom Holland stars as Peter Parker, aka Spider-Man in Sony and Marvel’s “Spider-Man: Brand New Day.”

Sony

Spider-Man is already webbing up a massive box-office haul.

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Sony and Marvel’s “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” secured $72 million in preview ticket sales, the highest collection for any domestic film in Hollywood history. The previous record holder was 2019’s “Avengers: Endgame,” which tallied $60 million ahead of its opening weekend.

“The demand for ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ is nothing short of astonishing,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Rentrak. “For a film to earn more than $70 million in pre-shows is unprecedented, and it reflects massive enthusiasm among moviegoers to head to the multiplex for the latest Marvel epic.”

The newest solo Spider-Man film benefited from Wednesday early access screenings as well as Thursday night previews. It is expected to haul in around $270 million domestically over its debut weekend, although some box-office analysts foresee an even bigger bounty.

The previous Spidey flick, “Spider-Man: No Way Home” currently stands as the second-highest domestic opening of all time with $260 million across its debut weekend in 2021. “Endgame” tallied $357 million during its first three days in theaters in 2019. “Brand New Day” is expected to surpass “No Way Home,” but remain behind “Endgame.”

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“While pre-shows are a very strong indicator of potential opening-weekend success, several factors can come into play, including a heavily front-loaded preview and opening day driven by fans motivated by the shared urgency of opening-weekend FOMO [fear of missing out],” Dergarabedian said.

“Endgame” managed its historic opening weekend with the help of 24-hour showings and extra screenings. There are late-night and early morning screenings of “Brand New Day” to meet demand for tickets, but it’s unclear if the programming is on the same scale as it was for “Endgame.”

And, “Brand New Day” does not have the added benefit of an Imax release, as those screens have been reserved for Christopher Nolan’s and Universal’s “The Odyssey.”

The Spider-Man installment will still benefit from premium large format screenings, however. The film has been programmed for ScreenX, 4DX, Dolby Cinema and HDR by Barco as well as premium offerings that are proprietary to the likes of AMC, Regal, Cinemark and regional players.

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ScreenX represented $1.8 million in Thursday ticket sales domestically and is expected to reach $4 million by the end of the weekend. Meanwhile, 4DX has tallied around $1.3 million domestically and is set to hit $4.5 million over the three-day debut.

“Brand New Day” arrives at the tail end of July, and the bulk of its box office will be reflected during the month of August. That’s good news for the domestic box office. Typically, August is the softest month on the summer movie calendar. With “Brand New Day,” the theatrical industry gets a momentum boost heading into the fall movie season.

The domestic box office has collected $5.6 billion in ticket sales this year through Sunday. That’s 16% behind 2019 levels, the last benchmark before the Covid pandemic shuttered movie theaters and paused productions.

However, the 2026 summer corridor is down just 9% from the 2019 comparison, standing at $3.05 billion versus $3.36 billion seven years ago.

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That gap could narrow even further with Imax extending coveted screenings of “The Odyssey” into September and as “Brand New Day” plays through the rest of summer.

Still to come is the November release of Lionsgate’s “The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping” and the hotly expected double feature of Warner Bros.’ “Dune: Part Three” and Disney’s “Avengers: Doomsday” due in theaters Dec. 18.

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Twitter’s India policy head, Mahima Kaul, to step down; will transition in March

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The Economic Times
NEW DELHI: Twitter‘s Public Policy Director for India and South Asia has resigned to pursue other interests, the micro-blogging site confirmed in a statement. The company has also advertised a position for public policy director – India last week.

This comes as the San-Francisco based firm is at the receiving end of the Indian government over an issue of blocking and unblocking certain handles tweeting about farmer protests.

Sources said that the executive — who continues to lead the conversations with the government — Mahima Kaul’s stepping down is not related to the recent controversy.

Monique Meche, VP, Public Policy, Twitter said in a statement “At the start of this year, Mahima Kaul decided to step down from her role as Twitter Public Policy Director for India and South Asia to take a well-deserved break. It’s a loss for all of us at Twitter, but after more than five years in the role we respect her desire to focus on the most important people and relationships in her personal life.” Kaul will continue in her role till the end of March and will support the transition, Meche added.

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“The Public Policy team acts as Twitter’s ambassadors to government policymakers, regulators, and civil society groups on public policy issues. We focus on addressing issues such as advocating for an Open Internet, freedom of expression, privacy, online safety, net neutrality, and data protection to advance the interests of Twitter and our customers. In addition, we serve as the #TwitterForGood team and provide guidance, resources, and support for Twitter’s Corporate Social Responsibility mission,” the company said in its job description on LinkedIn.

“As Twitter’s public policy lead based in India, this you’ll drive and assist development and advocacy of public policy solutions to pressing high technology issues. Specifically, you will manage and build a team of public policy and philanthropy specialists to protect and advance Twitter’s interests in India, it added among other key performing areas.