Fears of rising interest rates collided with worries about artificial-intelligence spending on Wall Street Friday, bringing an abrupt and painful end to weeks of gains and sending the Nasdaq composite to its worst day in more than a year.

Shares of the chip-making giants that have powered the market’s climb to records tumbled, weighed down by new concerns that trillions of dollars invested in AI technology won’t yield the expected blockbuster returns. The losses intensified after a robust jobs report raised new worries that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates later this year to fight inflation.

Analyst forecasts offer more than just numbers; they provide a forward-looking view of market potential. For investors seeking the next opportunity, a closer examination of BSE large-cap stocks reveals several promising names. Based on consensus estimates compiled by Trendlyne, a number of large-cap stocks are expected to deliver strong returns over the next 12 months. This projected “upside” reflects the average expected gain over the coming year and serves as a data-driven indicator for investors. In this analysis, we highlight nine large-cap stocks that analysts expect could deliver gains of 35% to 45% over the year ahead.

Sensex declined 117 points to close at 74,243, while Nifty 50 ended the session at 23,367. This came even as India VIX, which measures volatility in the Indian stock market, declined nearly 1% to 15.75.

Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:

Nifty slipped more than 2% this week. What do the charts indicate for the index heading into next week’s trading session?

For the second consecutive week, the benchmark index Nifty ended in negative territory. On the weekly chart, the index formed a bearish candle with shadows on both sides, reflecting indecisiveness among market participants. Notably, over the last four trading sessions, the index has been hovering near its previous swing low, indicating a lack of directional conviction. Yet, beneath this seemingly quiet price action, a fascinating battle between bullish and bearish signals continues to unfold.

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Interestingly, Nifty formed a Bullish Belt Hold pattern on Tuesday, followed by a Gravestone Doji on Wednesday. However, the absence of any meaningful follow-through on Thursday and Friday suggests that traders remain cautious.As a result, the index has largely traded within a narrow range over the past four sessions. The bigger question, however, is why the index remains trapped despite these contrasting candlestick formations.
A key reason behind this sideways movement is the divergence between the index’s heavyweight sectors. While Nifty Bank has been showing relative strength, Nifty IT has continued to underperform, resulting in a tug-of-war that has kept the benchmark range-bound. Additionally, Nifty continues to trade below its crucial moving averages, while momentum indicators are also signaling a lack of strong directional bias. When heavyweight sectors pull in opposite directions, the next move often becomes more explosive once the stalemate is broken. These technical factors suggest that the index is likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term. What is the current F&O positioning signalling for Nifty and Bank Nifty going into the new week?

Current F&O positioning indicates a neutral-to-slightly bearish undertone heading into the new week. While the Put-Call Ratio improved materially during the week, signalling that bearish aggression has moderated, call writers remain active at higher levels. With put support concentrated around 23,400–23,500 and significant call resistance near 23,700–24,000, the market is likely to remain range-bound unless a decisive breakout or breakdown triggers fresh positioning.

Nifty Bank ended the week over 1% lower. How are the charts shaping up and what strategy should traders adopt from here?

The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, outperformed the frontline indices during the past week, ending on a positive note. The index formed a small-bodied candle with a long lower shadow, highlighting strong buying interest emerging at lower levels.

From a relative strength perspective, the ratio chart of Bank Nifty versus Nifty has witnessed a consolidation breakout and has started trending higher, indicating sustained outperformance. Currently, the index is trading above its 20-day EMA, suggesting a relatively resilient bias. However, momentum indicators are still hovering sideways, reflecting a lack of strong directional conviction in the near term.

Going forward, the 50-day EMA zone of 55,000–55,100 is expected to act as an immediate resistance area. A sustained move above 55100 could pave the way for a sharp upside rally towards 55,800, followed by 56,500 in the short term. On the downside, the 53,800–53,700 zone will serve as a crucial support area, providing a cushion against any near-term weakness.

TCS, Infosys and Wockhardt witnessed sharp swings this week. How should investors approach these stocks at current levels?

We recommend avoiding TCS and Infosys for now as the major trend of both the stocks is bearish. The stock of Wockhardt Ltd has witnessed a profit booking after the sharp upside rally. Going ahead, if the stock sustains above 2,070 level then it is likely to resume its upward rally.

HDFC Bank stock continues to remain under pressure and is forming a lower top–lower bottom structure on the daily chart, indicating a prevailing bearish trend. Currently, it is trading near its recent swing low, reflecting weak price action and the absence of strong buying interest at current levels.

Technically, the stock is trading below its key moving averages, reinforcing the negative bias. Momentum indicators also remain weak, with the RSI hovering near the 40 mark, indicating subdued momentum, while the MACD remains in negative territory, highlighting continued bearish undertones. The overall setup suggests that sellers remain in control, and any meaningful reversal would require the stock to reclaim key resistance levels.

Going forward, the Rs 730–725 zone will act as a crucial support area. A sustained move below Rs 730 could invite fresh selling pressure and drag the stock towards lower levels. On the upside, only a decisive move above Rs 780 would indicate a short-term trend reversal and could trigger a pullback rally towards the Rs 810–820 zone. Until then, the overall structure is likely to remain weak.

Have you seen any meaningful change in the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) this week, and what does it signal about market sentiment?

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has improved from 0.5 at the beginning of the week to 0.69 currently, indicating that bearish aggression is gradually easing. Despite this improvement in positioning, Nifty continues to trade within a narrow range, suggesting that neither bulls nor bears have established decisive control. The rise in PCR points to reduced call writing pressure. However, the absence of a price breakout indicates that market participants are still awaiting a stronger directional trigger. Until a range breakout occurs, the prevailing expectation remains one of sideways consolidation with a slightly improving undertone.

What are the key support and resistance levels traders should keep an eye on in the coming week?

On the downside, the zone of 23,100–23,050 will act as a critical support area, as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous rally from 22182 to 24,602 is positioned within this range. A decisive breach below 23050 could trigger a sharper correction towards 22,700, followed by 22,500 in the short term. Equally important is the resistance zone, as it could determine whether the current consolidation transforms into a meaningful recovery.

On the upside, the zone of 23,550–23,600 is expected to act as a crucial resistance hurdle. A sustained move above 23,600 could pave the way for a sharp recovery towards 23,900, followed by 24,100 in the short term.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Hedge fund Golden Horse Fund Management has trimmed exposure and added derivative protection, while M&G Investments has cut memory and foundry holdings to broaden out down the AI supply chain. A Bloomberg Intelligence analysis of options on the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF shows investors seeking protection against a decline. The fund tumbled 14% Friday in the US.

The moves highlight the challenge facing global money managers. While investors remain upbeat about Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., the two chip giants that powered Kospi’s more than 90% rise this year, many are becoming pickier about where to put new money and keeping cash ready for opportunities elsewhere.

Friday’s selloff in US tech stocks, driven by fears of higher interest rates, shows how quickly popular trades can unwind once sentiment shifts. That risk could spillover into Korea once local markets open.

“We’ve been trimming gross exposure at the margin and layering derivative protection over the last few weeks,” said Yi Ling Ong, managing partner at Golden Horse Fund. Several large IPOs, including a SpaceX listing this month, could lead to rotation as funds raise cash to participate, making it “prudent to hold some dry powder,” she said.

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Over the past year, Korean stocks captured global attention as a combination of the AI boom and the government’s successful corporate reform propelled the index to new highs. Strong earnings potential continues to underpin bullish sentiment, but the extended rally has led to crowding in a few major players, leaving the market vulnerable to abrupt reversals. The benchmark tumbled 7% at one point on Friday.
The caution is showing up in the derivatives market.
“The debate isn’t whether the Kospi story remains attractive — it’s how to stay invested without giving back a portion of the gains,” said Tanvir Sandhu, global chief derivatives strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Options activity in the EWY ETF suggests investors are becoming more cautious, with demand shifting from upside exposure to downside protection, he said.

Some investors are looking for opportunities beyond Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, whose meteoric rise propelled them into the $1 trillion valuation club and helped Korea briefly overtake India as the world’s sixth-largest stock market.

“The alpha lies lower down the value chain — in the picks-and-shovels of the picks-and-shovels,” said Vikas Pershad, portfolio manager at M&G, referring to companies that benefit from spending on AI infrastructure without being at the heart of the trade.

Not Bearish

To be sure, the rotation doesn’t signal investors turning bearish on Korea. Valuations remain cheaper than in rival tech hub Taiwan and investors say the market still offers one of the strongest AI-linked stories in global equities.

At 8.6 times forward earnings, the Kospi trades below its five-year average of 10 times and is much cheaper than Taiwan’s benchmark, which trades at about 20 times, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Earnings upgrade cycle has also started to broaden. Excluding Samsung and SK Hynix, the rest of the Kospi is now expected to deliver more than 50% profit growth this year, up from just 20% in January, according to Golden Horse Fund.

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“The speed of the rally has been vertiginous but in this type of market I would rather let the rally continue,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management SA. “Exiting now will make it very difficult to re-invest later if the market doesn’t correct.”

Still, foreign outflows have become a concern. Global funds have pulled a record $76 billion this year, selling in every session over the past month. While part of the retreat is due to technical limits on single-stock holding, the selling has been absorbed by more fickle retail investors — a dynamic that may heighten volatility.

At the same time, some investors are growing wary of rising retail leverage. The concern is that popularity of leveraged ETFs and the planned weekly single-stock options could amplify swings in an already-volatile market.

While the products are “really interesting” and show retail participation is growing, they also leave the market “in somewhat of a precarious position in case of a reversal,” Stephane Martin, head of derivatives institutional sales for Asia at Optiver, said at a panel discussion at Bloomberg’s Volatility Forum last week.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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On Friday, the Sensex closed 117 points lower at 74,243, while the Nifty 50 declined 50 points to settle at 23,367. Among the top laggards on the Sensex were Trent, TCS, Tata Steel, NTPC, HCL Tech, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Reliance Industries, with losses of 1-2%.

Here are five key factors likely to drive the stock market in the week ahead.

1) Weak global cues

Wall Street ended sharply lower on Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunging more than 4% to log its steepest single-day decline since April 2025, after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report fuelled concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.

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The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 4.2%, dragged down by a more than 6% slide in Nvidia and an almost 8% drop in Broadcom. Broadcom’s weaker-than-expected guidance heightened concerns that AI-driven demand may not expand as rapidly as markets had anticipated. The Dow Jones fell 1.4%, while the S&P 500 dropped nearly 3%.
European markets closed mixed, while Asian equities ended broadly lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined more than 1%, while South Korea’s Kospi plunged nearly 6%. China’s Shanghai Composite also ended about 1% lower.
Also read: Why did Nasdaq plunge 4% to log worst day in over a year

2) RBI policy impact
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday announced that the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, as it assessed the impact of rising energy prices and supply disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict. The RBI also increased the investment limit for Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) and Overseas Citizens of India (OCIs) in equity instruments.

Indian equity markets are likely to remain range-bound next week amid a mix of domestic and global triggers, according to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

“While the Reserve Bank of India’s measures to attract foreign capital and the government’s tax relief for foreign investors in government securities could support sentiment, we expect market movement to be driven largely by bottom-up stock picking and sector-specific action in the near term,” he said.

Khemka noted that the central bank raised its FY27 inflation forecast to 5.1% and lowered its FY27 GDP growth projection to 6.6%, reinforcing concerns over energy prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia and weather-related uncertainties.

“If inflationary pressures remain elevated and external risks persist, the possibility of a future monetary tightening cycle could increase, keeping investors cautious. Going forward, investors will closely track energy prices, developments in the West Asia conflict, monsoon progress, FII flows and the impact of RBI’s policy measures for further market direction,” he added.

3) FII selling continues
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the Indian market during the first week of June, offloading shares worth Rs 31,120 crore, according to Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President – Research at Bajaj Broking. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), meanwhile, continued to provide support as net buyers.

“Investor sentiment remained subdued amid persistent geopolitical tensions, which kept crude oil prices elevated. Heightened global uncertainty, coupled with prevailing macroeconomic challenges, led to cautious market participation. Going forward, institutional flows are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in US-Iran relations and movements in oil prices,” he said.

4) Iran-US tensions
US forces struck Iranian coastal radar sites on Saturday after intercepting drones launched by Iran toward the Strait of Hormuz, the US military said. Reuters, citing a US official, reported that the military believes the four Iranian drones were targeting regional maritime traffic. US Central Command said on X that it subsequently struck Iran’s surveillance sites in Goruk and Qeshm Island, both located along the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had targeted US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain in retaliation for the strikes and fired on four tankers attempting to cross the strait without its permission. The developments renewed concerns over escalating tensions in the oil-rich Middle East.

Also read: GIFT Nifty tumbles 1.5% as US stock market plunges. Will Dalal Street crash on Monday?

5) Bond yields
Rising inflation concerns pushed US Treasury yields higher. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which is highly sensitive to expectations around Federal Reserve policy, climbed to a 15-month high. Elevated interest rates typically make bonds more attractive relative to equities, weighing on stock market sentiment.

Technical view on Nifty
The benchmark Nifty index ended lower for the second consecutive week, reflecting the cautious undertone prevailing in the market, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, Nifty 50 has been moving within a defined range as markets digest the RBI’s policy announcement. He noted that sentiment remains weak, with the index continuing to trade below key moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also remains subdued, indicating a lack of positive momentum.

“In the near term, the index is likely to consolidate within the 23,300–23,500 range. A decisive breakout above 23,500 could trigger an upmove towards 25,700 and beyond, while a break below the 23,300 support level may result in a sharper correction,” he said.

(With inputs from agencies)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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