Brent crude futures shot up to $82.37, the highest since January 2025, in the first futures trading after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran and ‌killed its Supreme Leader ⁠Ali ⁠Khamenei on Saturday. As of 0054 GMT, Brent futures were at $78.24 a barrel, up $5.37, or 7.37%.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $4.66, or 6.95%, to $71.68 a barrel after touching $75.33 earlier, the loftiest since June 2025.

Israel launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran on Sunday and Iran responded with more missile barrages, a day after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei pitched the Middle East and the global economy into deepening uncertainty.

The attacks exposed ships to collateral damage as missiles hit at least three tankers off the Gulf coast and killed one seafarer, shipping sources and officials said on Sunday.

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Iran ⁠has said ‌it has closed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Asian governments and refiners – key buyers – to assess oil stockpiles.
“With the retaliatory action now evolving to attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, ⁠the threat on oil supplies has substantially risen,” ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said in a note. Citi analysts expect Brent to trade between $80 and $90 a barrel this week amid the ongoing conflict.

“Our baseline view is that the Iranian leadership changes, or that the regime changes sufficiently as to stop the war within 1-2 weeks, or the U.S. decides to de-escalate having seen a change in leadership and set back Iran’s missiles and nuclear program over the same time frame,” the analysts led by Max Layton said in a note.

Amid the conflict, OPEC+ agreed to a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April on ‌Sunday.

Every OPEC+ producer is essentially producing at capacity except for Saudi Arabia, RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said.

“The utilization of any spare barrels will be severely limited if critical waterways are rendered inoperable,” she said.

Risks to commercial shipping have surged in ⁠the past 24 hours, with more than 200 vessels including oil and liquefied gas tankers dropping anchor around the strait and surrounding waters, shipping data showed on Sunday.

The International Energy Agency is actively monitoring events in the Middle East and is in touch with major producers in the region and IEA governments, director Fatih Birol said on Sunday. The energy watchdog coordinates the release of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) from developed countries during emergencies.

“Global total visible oil inventories stand at 7.827 million barrels now, near their historical median when expressed as covering 74 days of global demand,” Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note.

“The oil market could draw inventories, deploy spare capacity once the Strait reopens, and potentially benefit from global SPR releases,” they added.

Spot gold was up 1.72% at $5,368.09 an ounce, as of 0010 GMT, hitting its highest point in more than ‌four weeks.

U.S. gold ⁠futures ⁠rose 2.58% to $5,382.60 per ounce.

Israel launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran on Sunday and Iran responded with more missile barrages, a day after the killing of Khamenei pitched the Middle East and the global economy into deepening uncertainty.

“Unlike previous escalations in this conflict, there is fairly strong incentive here for both sides to continue to escalate potentially – and that runs the risk of leading to a pretty chaotic, uncertain and therefore volatile environment for more ⁠than just ‌a few days … the dynamic for gold is pretty positive” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

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Bullion, a traditional safe-haven asset, has hit ⁠successive record highs already this year due to heightened global political and economic uncertainty.
The latest rally builds on a 64% surge in 2025, driven by strong central bank buying, robust inflows into exchange-traded funds and expectations of U.S. monetary policy easing. Last week, J.P. Morgan and Bank of America reiterated that gold prices could climb toward the key $6,000 level. J.P. Morgan noted that it forecasts enough demand from central banks and investors this year to ultimately push prices to $6,300 an ounce by the end ‌of 2026.

“Gold is perhaps the finest barometer to reflect global uncertainty and, to mix metaphors, the mercury is rising. We should expect gold to be repriced higher to fresh records as ⁠we enter a whole new era of geopolitical uncertainty,” said independent analyst Ross Norman.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in January, suggesting inflation could pick up in coming months.

Investors will also watch a series of U.S. labor market readings this week, including the ADP employment report, weekly jobless claims and the non-farm payrolls report.

Spot silver rose 1.68% to $95.35 an ounce after registering a monthly gain in February.

Spot platinum climbed 0.74% to $2,382.15 an ounce while palladium advanced 0.25% to $1,790.60 per ounce.

NAGARAJ SHETTI
SENIOR TECHNICAL RESEARCH ANALYST, HDFC SECURITIES

Where is the Nifty headed?
A long bear candle has been formed on the daily chart of Nifty, indicating a sharp breakdown of a descending triangle-type pattern. The crucial opening upside gap of February 3 has almost been filled around 25,100 (left with a small margin). This is not a good sign. As per daily and weekly charts, Nifty remains weak, and any rise up to the 25,400 level could be a sell-on-rise opportunity. The next lower levels to be watched are around 24,700, and then 24,300 in the near term. Trading Strategies: One may look to sell Nifty March futures around 25,335–25,400 levels or consider buying Nifty 25,300 PE of March 30 expiry around Rs 332–300 for the potential downside in the index in the near term. Downside targets to be watched for Nifty spot are around 24,700, and then 24,300 for March expiry. Shorts should be placed with a strict stop loss at the Nifty spot around 25,400.

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TOP PICKS FOR THE WEEK
Oil India: Buy at CMP Rs 485, Stop Loss: Rs 470, Target Rs 510
Stock price has moved above the support of the 10- & 20-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). Volume has expanded during the upside breakout in the stock price, and the daily relative strength index (RSI) shows a positive indication.
Muthoot Finance: Sell at CMP Rs 3,347, Stop Loss: Rs 3,450, Target: Rs 3,175

The crucial support of the 14 November opening upside gap area has broken on the downside at Rs 3,400 levels on Friday, and closed lower. It is presently showing a downside breakout from range-bound action.

MEHUL KOTHARI
DVP – TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ANAND RATHI SHARE AND STOCK BROKERS

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty remains in a corrective and consolidation phase after repeated rejection from the 25,800–26,000 resistance zone, and is currently trading near the critical 25,100 support area. As long as 25,100 holds, the broader structure remains constructive, and the index may attempt to stabilise. A decisive move above 25,800 would confirm a triangle breakout, and open the path for new highs, while a break below 25,100 would weaken the structure and call for a reassessment of the bullish view.

Trading Strategies: A sustained move above 25,800 may favour Bull Call Spreads, while a break below 25,100 could open opportunities for Bear Put Spreads. Until a clear breakout or breakdown emerges, range-based strategies such as Bull Put Spreads or Iron Condors may be considered within the 25,100–25,800 band. ETF investors should use the ongoing correction to accumulate Nifty in a staggered manner.

TOP PICKS FOR THE WEEK
Central Bank of India: Buy at Rs 39.5–38.5, Stop Loss: Rs 36.30, Target: Rs 44

As long as Rs 36.3 is protected, the setup remains constructive. The stock can be accumulated in Rs 39.5–38.5 range with a stop loss at Rs 36.3 and an upside target of Rs 44 over the next three months.

Hindustan Zinc: Buy at Rs 605–585, Stop Loss: Rs 545, Target Rs 700

The stock is forming a higher base after a controlled pullback with gradually improving momentum. As long as Rs 545 holds, the broader structure remains positive.

SACCHITANAND UTTEKAR
VP – RESEARCH (TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES), TRADEBULLS SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty spent most of last week with its daily RSI struggling to reclaim the 50 mark, reflecting weak momentum and limited buying conviction. Although it nearly filled the February 3 gap around 25,100, inability to sustain above key moving averages and the close below 200-day EMA in the final session tilt the near-term bias slightly negative. This raises the probability of a revisit to the 25,040–25,900 demand zone, where prior buying interest had emerged. On the upside, 25,630—which is aligned with the 50- DEMA, remains a critical resistance.

A decisive close above this level is essential for bulls to regain control. Options data suggests a compressed weekly range of 25,500–25,000. Strong Put writing at 25,000 indicates firm support for this series, while Call build-up near 25,500 caps weekly gains. The 25,400 strike remains an interesting pivot for this truncated week. Any abnormal unwinding here could precede a breakout from the 25,500–25,000 range.

Trading Strategies: For Nifty, a long–short trading approach remains prudent, as the index is likely to stay rangebound between 25,500 and 25,000. Buying near support and selling near resistance within this band could remain the preferred strategy for short-term traders.

TOP PICKS FOR THE WEEK
Siemens: Buy at Rs 3,424, Stop Loss: Rs 3,340, Target Rs 3,760

Strong long build-up and weekly ADX positioning above 25 signal strengthening trend momentum. The structure indicates the early phase of a bullish impulse wave, with potential to extend toward 4,000- plus in coming weeks if the breakout sustains.

SBI Cards and Payment Services: Sell at Rs 746, Stop: 782, Target Rs 670

Daily ADX is repositioning for trend expansion, suggesting volatility may increase on the downside. The 722 level (200 MEMA support) is at risk. A decisive breach could accelerate selling pressure.

Brent jumped 7.5% to $78.34 a barrel, while U.S. crude climbed 7.3% to $71.88 per barrel. Gold rose 1.5% to $5,358 an ounce.

Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran showed no sign of lessening, while the Arab nation responded with missile barrages across the region, risking dragging its neighbours into the conflict.

President Donald Trump suggested to ‌the Daily Mail the conflict ⁠could last ⁠for four more weeks, while posting that attacks would continue until U.S. objectives were met.

All eyes were on the Strait of Hormuz where around a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade flows and 20% of its liquefied natural gas. While the vital waterway has not yet been blocked, marine tracking sites showed tankers piling up on either side of the strait wary of attack or maybe unable to get insurance for the voyage.

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“The most immediate and tangible development affecting oil markets is the effective halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 15 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from reaching markets,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.
“Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil.” A prolonged spike in oil prices would risk reigniting inflationary ⁠pressures globally, ‌while also acting as a tax on business and consumers that could dampen demand.

OPEC+ did agree a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April on Sunday, but a lot of that product still has to get out of the Middle East ⁠by tanker.

“The nearest historical analogue in our view is the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, which increased oil prices by 300% to around $12/bbl in 1974,” said Alan Gelder, SVP of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.

“That is only US$90/bbl in 2026 terms. Eclipsing this in today’s market concerned about significant losses of supply seems very achievable.”

That would be expensive for Japan, which imports all its oil, sending the Nikkei down 2.3%, with airlines among the hardest hit. South Korea lost 1.0%, after a meteoric rise so far this year.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.6%.

AND IT’S A BIG US DATA WEEK

For Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures shed 1.9% and DAX futures slid 1.8%. On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both lost 1.1%.

The oil shock rippled through currency markets with the dollar a main beneficiary. The ‌U.S. is a net energy exporter and Treasuries are still considered a liquid haven in times of stress, shoving the euro down 0.4% to $1.1768.

While the Japanese yen is often a safe harbour, the country imports all of its oil making the flows more two-way. The dollar added 0.3% to 156.55 yen, while gaining sharply on ⁠the Australian dollar, which is often sold as a liquid proxy for global risk.

In bond markets, 10-year Treasury yields fell 2 basis points to a three-month low of 3.926%, having dropped under 4% last week for the first time since late November.

Bonds had gained a bid on Friday when UK mortgage lender MFS was placed into administration following allegations of financial irregularities. Its collapse stoked wider credit fears, with well-known big banks among its lenders. MFS had borrowed 2 billion pounds ($2.69 billion).

The news slugged banking stocks and combined with jitters over AI-related stocks to hit Wall Street more broadly.

Investors also have to weather a squall of U.S. economic data this week, including the ISM survey of manufacturing, retail sales and the always vital payrolls report.

Any weakness could shake confidence in the economy after a disappointing fourth quarter, but would also likely narrow the odds on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Markets currently imply a 53% chance of an easing in June and about 60 basis points of cuts this year.