In an exclusive interaction with ET Now, Pankaj Murarka, CIO, Renaissance Investment Managers shared his outlook on market direction, sectoral leadership, and investment strategies in the current environment.

Markets Look Beyond Short-Term Shocks
Murarka remains optimistic about the trajectory of the markets, even after recent macroeconomic disruptions.

“It is certainly headed higher. I mean, it is as simple as this. Markets have absorbed the macroeconomic shock. While from an earnings perspective, we will see an impact of rising oil prices, currency adjustments, and rising bond yields, what we witnessed in March with rising oil prices was a perfect macroeconomic shock for India. While all of this will have an impact on earnings, probably in the first quarter and the first half as well, markets will look beyond that.

I think the earnings recovery we were looking forward to in FY27 or in this financial year will probably get pushed back to the second half of the year, but markets are already looking ahead to that. Markets have priced in that shock in terms of earnings adjustments. Having said that, the underlying growth in India remains fairly resilient. So, if you ask me, we are poised for a new high on the index by the end of this year.”

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Financials to Lead, Energy and Consumption to Follow
When asked about sectoral leadership, Murarka pointed to a broad-based recovery rather than a single-sector rally.
“Look, I see a broad-based recovery in the economy, so obviously financials will lead underlying growth. We have seen an improvement in credit growth. Last year, credit growth was up at 14%. With inflation coming in, working capital demand will increase, which will support credit growth. On top of that, the investment cycle continues to remain dynamic.
We are already seeing demand from some very large investment projects on the credit side for banks. So, banks will certainly do well. But apart from that, new sectors will open up. The spike in energy prices has exposed India’s energy vulnerability, so we will likely see higher investments in the energy ecosystem, which should do well.

We are also seeing recovery in consumption, as you highlighted. Nestlé reported strong results recently. We are coming out of two years of a sluggish cycle in consumption. There is latent demand in the economy. Historically, when domestic demand sectors go through a slowdown, they see a strong revival because that latent demand always exists.

We see something similar in autos as well, where after several years, sales have crossed previous peaks. This means there is significant pent-up demand now playing out. The underlying demand remains robust and will reflect across domestic-oriented sectors.”

IT Sector: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Opportunity
The IT sector has underperformed in recent months, but Murarka believes the outlook remains positive over the long term.

“We have all seen that the sector has not done well in the last 12 months. Valuations are at cyclical lows, levels we last saw around 2018. One key concern has been whether these companies will shrink over the next 5–10 years. I think that concern has now been addressed—this is not going to be the case.

These companies are going through a transition. Some parts of their business are being repriced or cannibalized, but at the same time, new opportunities are opening up. My belief is that these companies will continue to be growth companies in the near, medium, and long term.

Over the next four to six quarters, growth may remain moderate due to this transition. However, once this phase passes, they will return to a high-growth trajectory. Historically, major technology transitions have led to stronger growth for IT services companies, and I see no reason why this time should be different.

From a market perspective, valuations are low and pricing in muted growth. But growth will improve over the next four quarters. For long-term investors, this is a good time to invest with a three- to five-year view, with potential for strong returns.”

India’s Position in the AI Landscape
On artificial intelligence, Murarka noted that India may have missed the initial wave but still holds opportunity in services.

“The challenge with foundational technologies like AI is that the first five years are dominated by companies building the core ecosystem—like OpenAI, Anthropic, semiconductor firms, and hyperscalers. India does not have a presence in these areas.

However, as AI adoption spreads, India will play a role through IT services. Companies will need help integrating AI into their operations, and this is where Indian firms can add value.

The limitation is the lack of risk capital needed to build foundational technologies. These require significant investment with low success rates, and India’s ecosystem does not yet support that level of risk.”

Stock Selection Key in Mid and Small Caps
Murarka emphasized that the investment approach must now shift from sectors to individual stock picking.

“At the aggregate level, markets are fairly priced. But in times of macro uncertainty, performance dispersion within sectors increases significantly. You will find companies in the same sector performing very differently.

The game now is stock selection, not sector selection. It comes down to competitive edge, business moat, and management execution. Strong management teams can deliver growth even in challenging environments.

There are still opportunities in mid and small caps, especially after the recent correction. But investors need to be selective. Stocks that deliver positive surprises are seeing strong market reactions.”

Preferred Picks: Focus on Financials
While cautious about giving outright recommendations, Murarka shared a glimpse of his portfolio preferences.

“We like several mid-cap financials with strong management execution. We own names like Federal Bank and City Union Bank. In the NBFC space, we hold M&M Finance and PNB Housing Finance.

At this stage, it is all about management quality and execution. Companies that execute well will deliver superior returns. The market is increasingly stock-specific.”

The Bottom Line
Despite global uncertainties and short-term earnings pressure, the broader narrative for Indian equities remains intact. With resilient domestic demand, improving credit growth, and structural opportunities in sectors like energy and technology, markets could be on track for new highs—provided investors stay selective and focused on fundamentals.

LONDON — The FTSE 100 index climbed modestly in early trading Wednesday, rising about 0.11 percent to around 10,510 as investors weighed ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East and mixed signals from global markets following a sharp drop the previous day.

The blue-chip index stood at 10,509.99, up 11.90 points from Tuesday’s close of 10,498.09. It traded in a range between 10,516.44 and 10,478.92 by 8:45 a.m. BST, according to data from the London Stock Exchange. The modest rebound came after the index fell more than 1 percent Tuesday amid renewed uncertainty over U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and fluctuations in oil prices.

Analysts described the early movement as cautious, with traders monitoring developments after President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran while keeping a U.S. naval blockade in place. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil supplies, remains a focal point, with any escalation capable of pushing energy costs higher and pressuring inflation-sensitive sectors.

Utilities and energy-related stocks provided some support in early deals. SSE and Centrica were among early gainers, reflecting resilience in defensive sectors amid broader uncertainty. Consumer stocks showed mixed performance, while mining and financial names traded with limited direction as commodity prices stabilized somewhat after recent volatility.

The FTSE 100 has been on a roller-coaster ride in recent sessions. It closed Tuesday at 10,498.09 after shedding 110.99 points, or 1.05 percent, extending a pullback from levels above 10,600 seen earlier in the week. The index hit an intraday high of 10,634.96 on Tuesday but could not hold gains as concerns over Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment.

Broader context shows the FTSE 100 has delivered solid performance in 2026 so far, building on strong gains in 2025 that marked its best year since 2009. The index breached the psychologically important 10,000 level in early January and reached all-time highs near 10,935 in February. Year-to-date returns stand around 4 percent, though recent sessions have reflected heightened sensitivity to oil prices and geopolitical risks.

Market participants point to several factors influencing the UK benchmark. The heavy weighting toward energy giants such as Shell and BP means the index often moves in tandem with crude oil prices. Brent crude has fluctuated in recent days amid reports of partial reopening of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic maneuvering between Washington and Tehran.

A weaker pound has also provided a tailwind for the FTSE 100, which derives roughly three-quarters of its revenues from overseas markets. Exporters and multinational firms benefit when sterling depreciates, boosting the sterling value of foreign earnings. However, persistent UK inflation concerns — with recent data showing headline CPI rising to 3.3 percent in March — have tempered expectations for aggressive Bank of England rate cuts.

Economists note that the UK economy continues to grapple with stagflation-like conditions, combining subdued growth with elevated price pressures. Gross domestic product growth for 2025 was revised upward slightly to 1.4 percent, but business investment has shown weakness. Unemployment remains relatively low at 4.9 percent, yet wage growth has moderated, offering limited relief to squeezed household budgets.

Corporate earnings season has added another layer of nuance. Recent reports from major FTSE 100 constituents have been mixed. Retailers like Tesco have highlighted consumer resilience in some areas, while others face margin pressures from higher energy and import costs. Defense stocks, including BAE Systems, have benefited from increased global security spending, contributing to the index’s resilience at times.

Pharmaceutical heavyweights such as AstraZeneca and GSK have faced headwinds from sector-specific challenges, including regulatory scrutiny and patent cliffs, though they continue to underpin the index with steady dividend payouts. The FTSE 100’s attractive dividend yield, projected around 3.3 percent for 2026 with record payouts expected near £88 billion, continues to draw income-focused investors.

Analysts at firms like AJ Bell have forecast further upside for the index, potentially reaching 10,750 by year-end, driven by profit growth of around 14 percent and ongoing share buybacks. However, they caution that commodity price swings, monetary policy decisions and geopolitical flashpoints could derail progress.

International developments have dominated headlines. Trump’s Truth Social posts asserting Iran’s financial collapse and demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have fueled market swings. Limited commercial shipping has resumed through the waterway, but the ongoing U.S. blockade restricts Iranian oil exports, keeping energy markets on edge.

European peers showed varied performance Wednesday morning. The pan-European STOXX 600 edged higher, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 traded with modest gains as investors assessed the latest Iran-related news. Wall Street futures pointed to a cautious open in New York, with focus on upcoming U.S. economic data and corporate earnings.

In London, mid-cap stocks in the FTSE 250 were slightly firmer, gaining around 0.3 percent in early action. The more domestically focused index often amplifies movements in UK-specific economic indicators such as house prices and retail sales.

Trading volume remained moderate as many participants awaited further clarity on Middle East diplomacy. Pakistan and Oman have reportedly served as intermediaries in indirect talks, though deep divisions persist over Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief and regional proxy activities.

Bank of England officials have signaled a data-dependent approach to interest rates. With inflation above target and growth fragile, markets price in limited easing over the coming months. Gilt yields have remained relatively stable, providing some support to rate-sensitive sectors.

Looking ahead, investors will watch for fresh corporate updates and macroeconomic releases. Key earnings from remaining FTSE 100 names could influence sentiment, particularly in banking, mining and consumer goods. Any breakthrough or setback in U.S.-Iran negotiations would likely trigger sharp moves in oil prices and, by extension, the FTSE 100.

The index’s composition — tilted toward value sectors rather than high-growth technology — has helped it outperform some global peers during periods of volatility but has also capped upside when risk appetite surges elsewhere. In 2026, financials, miners and energy stocks have been primary drivers of gains, while defensives like utilities and pharmaceuticals have offered ballast.

Broader UK equity market capitalization stands near record levels, reflecting confidence in British companies despite domestic challenges. Foreign ownership remains high, with international investors attracted by relatively cheap valuations compared to U.S. benchmarks.

As trading progressed past the 8:45 a.m. mark, the FTSE 100 held its modest advance. Traders noted that sustained gains would require easing of geopolitical risks and positive cues from commodity markets. A resolution or meaningful de-escalation in the Middle East could unlock further upside, while renewed tensions might test recent support levels near 10,400-10,500.

The session underscores the FTSE 100’s role as a barometer for both UK economic health and global risk sentiment. With the nation preparing for its 250th anniversary celebrations in 2026, market stability could play a supporting role in broader confidence.

Analysts remain broadly constructive on UK equities for the remainder of the year, citing dividend growth, buyback activity and potential valuation rerating if inflation cools and rates ease. However, they stress the need for vigilance on external shocks, particularly those involving energy security and international trade.

By mid-morning, the index hovered near its early high, with individual stock movements reflecting sector rotations. Gains in utilities and select consumer names offset softness in more cyclical areas sensitive to oil and global growth concerns.

The modest 0.11 percent uptick at 8:45 a.m. BST reflects a market seeking direction amid crosscurrents of diplomacy, energy dynamics and domestic fundamentals. Whether the early gains hold through the full session will depend on incoming news flow and shifts in investor risk appetite.

The facility includes a state-of-the-art arena and will support the growth of the sport at grassroots, junior and elite levels

A new national darts centre has opened its doors in Bristol. The facility – known as Hangar61 – is based in the old Patchway sports and social club, and is designed to support the growth of the sport at grassroots, junior and elite levels.

It will be operated by the Junior Darts Corporation (JDC) in partnership with dartboard manufacturer Winmau, which said the centre’s mission is “firmly focused” on the future of darts and nurturing young talent.

The new facility includes a state-of-the art arena; 32 match boards and dart lanes with live tablet scoring; and a production room with broadcast equipment.

It will host JDC academies, community coaching programmes and professional-level training, while continuing to operate as a space for local residents, families and young people, JDC said.