Brent crude rose over2% to near $95.20 a barrel after the US military launched strikes on multiple targets in Iran for a second straight day. MSCI’s gauge for Asian equities dropped 1%, setting the gauge up for a fifth loss in six days. Tech stocks remained under pressure with South Korea’s Kospi Index, a bellwether for the artificial-intelligence trade, dropping over 4%.

Equity-index futures for Wall Street benchmarks also retreated after the underlying gauges both dropped during the US session. The Nasdaq 100 Index dropped 2% as traders were rattled by a renewed selloff in some of the world’s largest tech companies.

Elsewhere, gold extended losses to around $4,050 an ounce on concerns elevated oil prices will lead to higher interest rates. The dollar was a touch stronger against most Group-of-10 currencies. Treasury futures also fell as geopolitical tensions increased with Iran saying the Strait of Hormuz was closed to all types of vessels.

The latest strikes threatened to inject fresh volatility into markets and tighten crude oil supplies, risking renewed inflationary pressures. Even after Wednesday’s softer-than-expected US inflation report offered a brief reprieve, traders continued to price in higher borrowing costs while a selloff in semiconductor stocks cast doubt on the sustainability of the record equity rally.

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“Investors remain skittish despite being thrown a lifeline by the inflation figures,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG. “It is now a case of ‘once bitten, twice shy’ – no one wants to go charging in to buy the dip yet, which suggests more of a drift lower for the time being, though leaving the overall trend intact.”
US Central Command said it had begun what it called the “additional self-defense strikes” at 5:15 p.m. New York time on Wednesday.The attacks, which followed strikes on Tuesday in retaliation for the downing of a US Apache helicopter, underscored President Donald Trump’s growing impatience that the two sides have so far failed to reach an agreement.

They also reinforced the view that an April ceasefire has effectively collapsed, despite the absence of a return to the large-scale bombing campaign seen at the start of the conflict.

“Markets retain a suspicion that this will be another brief episode of sound and fury signifying not much, so a degree of caution in positioning seems warranted,” said Sean Callow, a senior analyst at ITC Markets in Sydney.

In the US, shares of chipmakers and other AI infrastructure companies, this year’s biggest winners, fell for a second day Wednesday. Chip bellwether Nvidia Corp. dropped 3.7%, Broadcom Inc. dropped 5.1%, while Super Micro Computer slid 28% after unveiling plans for a $7 billion equity raise. Oracle Corp. shares slipped in extended trading after reporting quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates.

Elsewhere, the yen held near 160.50 per dollar with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hospitalized. He is expected to miss next week’s policy meeting, the central bank said.

Meanwhile, the core consumer price index in the US, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.2% from April, under the 0.3% consensus forecast among economists polled by Bloomberg.

Even so, bond traders maintained bets that the Fed would raise rates by the end of the year. While Treasury yields initially dipped after the data on Wednesday, they resumed climbing with oil prices later in the session. Interest-rate swaps showed traders are still fully pricing in a rate hike by December.

“It’s clear that rate cuts are off the table, and while there is chatter about a potential rate hike, we believe it’s unlikely that we’ll see a rate hike before the midterm elections,” wrote Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital.

Scott Grannis was Chief Economist from 1989 to 2007 at Western Asset Management Company, a Pasadena-based manager of fixed-income funds for institutional investors around the globe. He was a member of Western’s Investment Strategy Committee, was responsible for developing the firm’s domestic and international outlook, and provided consultation and advice on investment and asset allocation strategies to CFOs, Treasurers, and pension fund managers. He specialized in analysis of Federal Reserve policy and interest rate forecasting, and spearheaded the firm’s research into Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Prior to joining Western Asset, he was Senior Economist at the Claremont Economics Institute, an economic forecasting and consulting service headed by John Rutledge, from 1980 to 1986. From 1986 to 1989, he was Principal at Leland O’Brien Rubinstein Associates, a financial services firm that specialized in sophisticated hedging strategies for institutional investors.

Visit his blog: Calafia Beach Pundit (https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/)

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