Business
Nifty correction over? Alchemy Capital’s Alok Agarwal sees metals, PSU banks leading rally
Edited excerpts from a chat:
How are you reading the current equity market construct following the 1.5 year-long consolidation phase? Is the time correction done or do you see risks of a deeper time correction given valuations and liquidity dynamics?
The Indian equity market has navigated a 1.5-year consolidation since late 2024, with the Nifty 500 correcting 15% from its September 2024 peak to its March 2025 trough, addressing sluggish earnings and global uncertainties like anticipated tariffs from the US. The breadth of the market was quite weak. While the index fell 15% during this period, more than one-third of the stocks fell by over 25%. India’s economic deceleration is impossible to ignore. GST collections have grown in single digits year-on-year for eight consecutive months, while nominal GDP and Nifty 50 earnings have similarly languished in single-digit territory—the latter for seven straight quarters. These aren’t fleeting data blips; they represent a genuine cyclical slowdown that has rattled investor confidence.
Both the government and the RBI have responded with unprecedented vigour. Direct tax cuts and targeted GST reductions are putting money back into consumer pockets, while fiscal discipline ensures macro stability.
Simultaneously, the RBI has delivered record-low policy rates and reduced the CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio), flooding the system with liquidity while keeping inflation firmly in check. This coordinated fiscal-monetary push creates powerful conditions for recovery, with typical policy lags suggesting the impact should materialise in the coming quarters.
More compelling is the valuation reset. Indian equities have underperformed emerging markets and global indices by over 2,000 basis points in the past 12-15 months—a staggering divergence that is virtually unprecedented. This correction has eliminated the valuation excess that built up during the bull run, creating asymmetric risk-reward dynamics.
When policy support aligns with compressed valuations and extreme underperformance, mean reversion becomes highly probable. India’s structural growth drivers—favourable demographics, ongoing urbanisation, and digital penetration—remain intact, in our view. The slowdown is real, but likely temporary.
We believe the bulk of price and time correction is over. Markets may begin to perform better as growth picks up.
From a sectoral standpoint, which themes are demonstrating durable earnings momentum, and where do you see the next leg of leadership emerging?
While the broader market may digest the growth slowdown, pockets of genuine earnings momentum are emerging—and they’re likely to define the next phase of market leadership.
Precious and Non-Ferrous Metals stand out as structural beneficiaries of two powerful tailwinds, in our view. The de-dollarisation trend, accelerated by geopolitical fragmentation, is driving central banks globally to accumulate gold and diversify reserves – The Central Banks’ holdings of gold in their forex reserves have surpassed those of US Treasuries for the first time in nearly 30 years. Simultaneously, the AI infrastructure boom requires enormous quantities of silver (this is expected to be the sixth straight year of deficit), copper (current and expected new capacities are unlikely to meet more than 70% of demand over the next 10 years), aluminium, and specialised metals for data centres, semiconductors, and power generation systems. We believe metals are benefiting from a multi-year capex and electrification cycle, rather than a purely cyclical rebound.
Capital Market Plays—exchanges, brokers, wealth managers, and asset managers—represent one of the clearer secular growth trends in India. Retail investor participation continues to deepen, with mutual fund SIPs hitting record levels month after month, as Indian household savings shift from physical assets to financial instruments.
The earnings visibility for quality franchises in this space remains favourable, with operating leverage intact and regulatory tailwinds supporting growth.
PSU and Regional Private Banks offer compelling value as a turnaround story reaches maturity. PSU bank net NPAs (Non-Performing Assets) have improved dramatically, with significant improvement in asset quality, narrowing the gap with private peers, a transformation few anticipated a couple of years ago. Yet valuations remain at significant discounts, creating unusual risk-reward dynamics. Regional private banks, meanwhile, are gaining share in underbanked markets with intact NIMs (Net Interest Margins) and disciplined credit growth.
Do you think gold has topped out in the near term and that silver is best avoided at this point?
Gold is a precious metal that has long served as a store of value. In a highly leveraged world, where even government balance sheets are significantly levered, confidence in fiat currencies is taking a knock. Over the last 25 years, while US GDP has become 3x, its debt has grown over 6x – hence, the incremental Debt/GDP in the last 25 years has been over 200%.
In the last two centuries, whenever a country’s Debt/GDP crossed 120%, it had a high probability of defaulting over the next few years. The US is at 125% now.
As a result, the central bankers of the world are slowly, but more importantly, steadily, increasing their exposure to gold. Now, their holdings of gold have surpassed those of US Treasuries for the first time in nearly 30 years – this speaks volumes.
India’s holdings of long-term US Treasuries have dropped to $174 billion (as of Dec 2025), down 26% from a 2023 peak, and now account for one-third of the nation’s foreign exchange assets. Gold in India’s forex reserves now stands at $107 billion. US Treasuries holdings to gold holdings ratio was 5.2x in May 2023, now it is 1.6x – a clear diversification.
With regard to silver, it has a dual role – both as a monetary asset and for industrial usage. As a monetary asset, its value is pegged to gold. Silver’s unique property is that it is the best conductor of electricity. The world’s demand for electricity is rising, driven by AI, data centres, renewable energy, grid modernisation, EVs etc. Silver has been in deficit for the last five years and the demand is only rising at a rapid pace. Moreover, the inventories are at record lows.
We are bullish on both gold and silver.
What should investors think about asset allocation at this juncture? Does the risk-reward favour incremental equity exposure, or a more diversified stance across asset classes?
The question of asset allocation has never been more critical—or more complex. We’re operating in a fundamentally unique regime compared to the one that prevailed over the past decade.
We remain constructive on equities and precious metals. Specific equity sectors may offer durable earnings momentum, while precious metals may benefit structurally from de-dollarisation and AI-driven demand. The valuation reset in Indian equities, combined with policy support, may create an attractive risk-reward for patient capital.
However—and this is crucial—we’re navigating a world grappling with an emerging new order, elevated debt burdens across developed economies, subdued growth, and persistent geopolitical tensions. Volatility is likely to remain structurally higher, with sharper drawdowns and more frequent dislocations, and this reality demands a more diversified stance. Precious metals aren’t just a tactical play; they offer a degree of resilience amid concerns around currency stability and geopolitical risk.
The opportunity in equities is real, but so is the volatility ahead.
It is advisable to work with a qualified investment advisor or financial planner who can calibrate exposure to your specific circumstances—your time horizon, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, and tax situation all matter significantly.
The pain in IT stocks isn’t ending amid all the negative newsflow around the potential impact of AI. How serious is the threat for a long-term investor who comes with a 4-5 year horizon?
The Nifty IT Index trades at an eight-year low relative to the Nifty 500—a valuation discount that’s drawing attention from contrarian investors. But before rushing into what appears less expensive, long-term investors may have to confront uncomfortable realities about this sector’s trajectory.
The weakness predates AI anxiety. Over the last 3, 5, and 10 years, the IT sector’s earnings growth has remained in single digits or barely scraped into double-digits. This isn’t a temporary disruption, in our view; it’s sustained underperformance reflecting genuine business model pressures—commoditisation of services, pricing pressure, and sluggish demand from key Western markets.
Now layer on AI disruption, which is very real. Generative AI isn’t just another technology shift; it threatens to fundamentally alter how code is written, tested, and maintained. The labour arbitrage model that powered Indian IT’s rise faces structural obsolescence as AI tools enable clients to accomplish more with fewer engineers.
This combination—already anaemic growth now facing additional headwinds—suggests that the earnings trajectory could deteriorate further rather than stabilise. While they may offer high dividend yields, attractive free cash flow yields, and elevated payout ratios, these metrics are backward-looking. If growth erodes further, cash generation suffers, and those compelling yields may become unsustainable.
The valuation discount exists for a reason. Until Indian IT companies demonstrate concrete strategies to reinvent themselves—pivoting to AI enablement rather than displacement, moving up the value chain, or achieving genuine cost transformation, the risk-reward may remain unfavourable even on a 4-5-year horizon, in our view.
How do you assess Q3 earnings trends so far, and what would you need to see in Q4 numbers to sustain market momentum?
The Q3FY26 earnings season delivered a tale of two markets—one that’s encouraging beneath the surface, and another that continues to be weak at the index level.
Corporate India delivered its fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, with impressive participation: 19 of the 27 sectors in the Nifty 500 posted double-digit growth. This breadth matters enormously—it signals the earnings recovery isn’t confined to a handful of winners but is spreading across the economy.
Metals led the charge, with profits surging 33% year-on-year, benefiting from improved realisations and operational leverage. Oil & Gas, particularly OMCs (oil marketing companies), saw profits jump 2.4x as refining margins normalised and inventory gains materialised.
On the other hand, the Nifty 50 delivered just 7% PAT growth—its seventh consecutive quarter of single-digit earnings expansion. This disconnect between broad market strength and benchmark weakness reflects composition effects. The Nifty 50’s heavy weightings in IT, certain consumer segments, and select financial names that are struggling have masked the improving momentum elsewhere.
For markets to sustain momentum in Q4FY26, two factors would be crucial, according to us. First, sectoral breadth must hold—confirmation that 15-20 sectors can sustain double-digit growth may support the durability of the recovery. Second, stability in Nifty 50 heavyweights would be constructive.
Are we finally going to see smallcaps rallying once again in FY27?
The Nifty Smallcap 250 Index has been underperforming since September 2024. While the main indices like Nifty 50 & BSE 500 have traded largely flat, the Nifty Smallcap 250 Index is down 8%.
This correction has done important work in purging valuation excess. The high multiples that characterised pockets of the smallcap universe through mid-2024 have compressed. However, excesses still persist in certain corners—particularly in momentum names where narratives have outpaced fundamentals.
The path to sustained smallcap participation in FY27 runs through macro recovery. As overall earnings growth accelerates, smallcaps typically exhibit higher beta to the cycle. Their operating leverage, when growth returns, may drive disproportionate earnings surprises that may rerate valuations quickly.
Two West Perth office buildings have changed hands following four decades of ownership.
“Incrementally over the past couple of quarters, we have been recommending to clients that NBFCs now is the time to be a bit more selective. The reason is primarily three-fold. One is the starting point of valuations—they are close to their long-term averages, or some are trading rich. Rightfully so, it is accompanied by superior earnings growth. Secondly, on a relative basis, vis-à-vis private banks, the earnings premium that NBFCs deliver is going to narrow. There is nothing wrong with larger NBFCs—they will still deliver a 25% kind of earnings growth CAGR over the next couple of years—but for most banks, including PSUs, earnings growth is set to inflect. The relative earnings premium that NBFCs used to deliver is shrinking. Thirdly, the key risk for NBFCs from here on is margins. Despite 125 basis points of rate cuts, yields for non-AAA rated NBFC paper have not reduced in the last one and a half years. There is clear differentiation even within AAA-rated or corporate-backed NBFCs,” he said.
Shah highlighted that while NBFCs have benefited from lower bank borrowing costs, higher market borrowing costs are offsetting these gains. “Cost of fund reduction on back of the repo rate cuts may not come through, which can lead to earnings cuts for NBFCs,” he noted.
Looking at the NBFC universe, Shah recommends focusing on those that are diversified and have relative advantages on the liability side, such as parentage or strong credit ratings. “They seem better placed and will deliver stabler earnings growth over a longer period of time,” he said.
Digital lending is expected to reshape the NBFC landscape over the next three to five years, with players like Airtel and Jio entering the market alongside established names like Bajaj Finance. Shah believes that while newer entrants have a meaningful right to win in digital distribution and liability advantages, execution will be gradual. “It took Jio Finance three years to reach a ₹20,000 crore loan book on the NBFC side. In the near to medium term, there is no material threat to larger players. Competitive intensity will increase, but larger or more diversified players have levers to offset digital competition. It is a gradual scale-up and nothing to worry about immediately.”
Valuations remain a key consideration. Shah noted that high valuations for NBFCs are partly justified by their natural lending growth, but rationalization may occur as digital lending becomes mainstream. “For larger NBFCs delivering 20-25% earnings growth, even with some compression in valuations, investors can still expect decent 18-20% CAGR returns,” he said.
Regarding market patience, Shah observed that valuation resets are sometimes necessary when earnings growth slows. “If one expects steady 20-25% earnings growth and the new reality is 15%, there has to be a valuation reset. In cases of temporary blips, markets may eventually be patient, and it could be an opportunity to double down. Take Chola Finance: same time last year, its stock was materially below current levels, and the bigger picture remained intact,” he explained.As NBFCs navigate a changing financial landscape, selectivity, digital readiness, and a focus on long-term earnings stability appear to be the guiding principles for investors.
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Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao have agreed to a professional rematch of their landmark 2015 “Fight of the Century,” set for Sept. 19 at the Sphere in Las Vegas, the boxing icons announced Monday. The bout will stream live globally on Netflix, marking the first professional boxing event at the immersive venue east of the Las Vegas Strip.
The news ends years of speculation about a second clash between the two legends, who first met on May 2, 2015, at MGM Grand Garden Arena in what became the highest-grossing pay-per-view event in boxing history. Mayweather won by unanimous decision after 12 rounds, improving his record to 49-0, but Pacquiao later claimed a shoulder injury hampered his performance.
Now, more than a decade later, Mayweather, 48, will come out of retirement for the fight, while Pacquiao, 47, continues his active career. The rematch arrives as both fighters remain among the sport’s most recognizable names, with Mayweather having competed in exhibitions since his 2017 retirement and Pacquiao pursuing political ambitions alongside occasional bouts.
Netflix confirmed the event in a statement, describing it as a “highly anticipated rematch” that will leverage the Sphere’s cutting-edge technology for an unprecedented viewing experience. The venue, which opened in 2023, features a massive LED exterior and immersive interior displays, promising a spectacle beyond traditional boxing arenas. Full details on ticketing, undercard and production will be revealed in the coming weeks, according to Netflix.
The agreement follows months of negotiations, with sources telling ESPN’s Andreas Hale that the fight is now official. Mayweather has teased comebacks repeatedly, including a planned exhibition against Mike Tyson, but this marks his return to a sanctioned professional bout. Pacquiao, a former eight-division world champion, last fought professionally in 2021, losing to Yordenis Ugas.
Fans and analysts reacted with a mix of excitement and skepticism. The 2015 fight drew criticism for its lack of action, with Mayweather’s defensive style frustrating Pacquiao’s aggressive approach. Many questioned whether aging fighters could recapture the magic, though the novelty of the Sphere and Netflix’s global reach could drive massive viewership.
“Boxing has been incredible lately, but this is two legends cashing in one more time,” one Reddit user commented on a popular thread. Others praised the matchup for its historical significance, noting it resolves unfinished business from the controversial first encounter.
Mayweather, undefeated in 50 professional fights before exhibitions, has maintained elite conditioning through exhibitions and training. Pacquiao, known for his speed and power, has stayed active in exhibitions and political life in the Philippines.
The Sphere’s selection as host adds intrigue. Unlike traditional venues, it offers 360-degree visuals and haptic seating, potentially enhancing the broadcast. Netflix’s involvement signals a shift toward streaming for major boxing events, following successful live sports streams.
Promoters have not disclosed purse details, but the 2015 fight generated over $400 million in revenue, with both fighters earning nine-figure paydays. Expectations are high for similar financial success, bolstered by Netflix’s subscriber base.
As anticipation builds, the rematch revives one of boxing’s greatest rivalries. Whether it delivers fireworks or echoes the original’s tactical chess match remains to be seen, but the event promises to captivate fans worldwide.
Apple is gearing up for its first major product reveal of 2026 with a “Special Experience” event scheduled for March 4 in New York, London and Shanghai, where the company is widely expected to unveil the iPhone 17e — the successor to last year’s budget-friendly iPhone 16e — alongside refreshed MacBook models powered by the new M5 chip family.
The unusual in-person-only format, not listed on Apple’s standard events page and without a traditional live stream, has fueled speculation about staggered announcements leading up to the event. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported in his Power On newsletter that Apple may drop product details via press releases starting as early as March 2 or 3, with one category per day, culminating in the March 4 experience for select media.
The iPhone 17e, codenamed V159, is positioned as the entry-level model in Apple’s 2026 lineup, replacing the iPhone 16e launched in February 2025. Rumors from supply chain sources and analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo point to a spring release, aligning with the pattern established by its predecessor. While some early leaks suggested a February debut, most now converge on the week of March 4, potentially announced via press release before the event.
Key upgrades for the iPhone 17e include the A19 chip — the same processor expected in the standard iPhone 17 series — promising better performance and efficiency than the A18 in the iPhone 16e. The device is rumored to gain MagSafe wireless charging support, a long-requested feature missing from last year’s model, and possibly swap the display notch for Dynamic Island for a more modern look. The screen is expected to retain a 60Hz refresh rate, keeping costs down.
Design-wise, the iPhone 17e should resemble the iPhone 16e closely, with a single rear camera and similar dimensions. Pricing is anticipated to hold steady at $599 for the base 128GB model with 8GB RAM, allowing Apple to market it as offering more features at the same cost. Production has reportedly entered test runs, with mass manufacturing ramping up ahead of launch.
The iPhone 17e fits into Apple’s evolving strategy for affordable devices, following the introduction of the “e” line as a value-focused option. It arrives amid the full iPhone 17 series, which launched in September 2025 with models including the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max and the ultra-thin iPhone Air.
On the Mac side, multiple updates are expected. The MacBook Air is poised for an M5 chip refresh in both 13-inch and 15-inch variants, maintaining the current design while gaining performance boosts from the new silicon. No major redesigns are rumored, with focus on efficiency and Apple Intelligence enhancements.
A lower-cost MacBook, sometimes called the “budget MacBook” or “MacBook e,” could debut as an even more accessible option, potentially starting around $699-$799 and powered by an A-series chip like the A18 Pro. This model would slot below the MacBook Air, targeting students and first-time buyers with a simpler configuration.
High-end MacBook Pro models in 14-inch and 16-inch sizes are expected to receive M5 Pro and M5 Max chips early in 2026, delivering substantial gains in CPU, GPU and AI capabilities. These refreshes are described as iterative, with no dramatic design changes anticipated until later in the year or 2027, when OLED displays and touchscreens may arrive for the MacBook Pro lineup to mark its 20th anniversary.
The March timing aligns with Apple’s recent pattern of early-year product drops for non-flagship iPhones and select Macs, allowing the company to refresh its portfolio ahead of the fall iPhone cycle. The “Special Experience” in three global cities suggests a focus on immersive, hands-on demos for invited press, possibly highlighting AI features, new Siri capabilities and ecosystem integration across devices.
Analysts view the event as a low-key but important kickoff to 2026, bridging the gap between last fall’s iPhone 17 series and future innovations like foldables. With the iPhone 17e and M5-powered Macs, Apple aims to maintain momentum in a competitive market while emphasizing value and performance.
Pre-orders for the iPhone 17e and any announced Macs could begin shortly after announcements, with availability following in the weeks ahead. As details emerge from leaks and official channels, attention will turn to how these devices enhance Apple’s lineup for everyday users and professionals alike.
“Fourth quarter is usually a volume push quarter, so price hikes don’t sustain. But after GST cuts, prices fell more than expected in south and east. The industry attempted price hikes in January and February. In February, Rs 15-20 price hikes were announced, out of which Rs 10 have sustained. This is a positive step for South India,” he said.
Chadha noted that demand is largely in line with expectations. “The demand is strong as usual in the fourth quarter, but there’s no significant uptick. Price hikes are more about major players maintaining discipline and coming off a lower base.”
Looking ahead to FY27, management focus is shifting from volume to value, which could support sustainable price gains. “Top management is moving towards more value than volume. In April-May, we might see price hikes of Rs 40-50 per bag in South India, compared to Rs 10-15 in recent years,” he explained.
Rural demand is expected to drive volume growth next year. “Rural revival is key. We expect FY27 volume to be 7-8% higher than FY26. State and central capex delays could be negative, but rural recovery should offset that,” Chadha added.
Over the next three years, Chadha expects significant improvement in both volume and value. “With consolidation and pricing strength, the industry should report far better results than FY25-26,” he said.
With price discipline returning and rural demand poised for recovery, the cement sector could finally see a long-awaited combination of volume growth and profitability.
Euroz Hartleys has more than doubled its first-half profit amid a rebound in WA’s capital raising market.
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More than 12,000 adult bed rails were recalled over entrapment hazards that could lead to serious injury or even death, according to the Consumer Product Safety Commission.
The recall affects about 12,355 Vive Health Bed Rails, the CPSC said in an alert last week.
When the bed rails are attached to a bed, users can become trapped inside the bed rail or between the bed rail and the side of the mattress, which poses a “serious entrapment hazard and risk of death by asphyxiation,” the commission warned.
MORE THAN 191,000 AROEVE AIR PURIFIERS RECALLED OVER OVERHEATING, FIRE RISK
The recall affects about 12,355 Vive Health Bed Rails. (Consumer Product Safety Commission)
The commission also said the bed rails do not feature the required hazard warning labels.
The items were sold online at Amazon.com and ViveHealth.com between August 2023 and December 2025 in the price range of $45 and $80. Only bed rails purchased after Aug. 21, 2023, are included in this recall.
The bed rails do not feature the required hazard warning labels. (Consumer Product Safety Commission)
This recall impacts models LVA1024 and LVA3031BLK. Model LVA1024 comes in a white frame with a black handle and measures 20 inches wide by 32 inches tall. Model LVA3031BLK comes in a black frame with a black handle and measures 13 inches wide by 18 inches tall.
Consumers are urged to stop using the bed rails and to contact Vive Health for a full refund.
No injuries or deaths have been reported thus far in connection with this recall.
The items were sold online at Amazon.com and ViveHealth.com between August 2023 and December 2025 in the price range of $45 and $80. (REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz / Reuters)
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Vive Health is just the latest company to issue a recall of adult bed rails.
Last month, about 26,200 Sangohe brand adult portable bed rails sold online at Amazon and Walmart were recalled over the same “entrapment hazard and risk of death by asphyxiation.”
A similar recall was also issued in December for about 12,000 JOKOSIS branded bed rails.
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