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No more rate cuts, but high yields create tactical opportunities in long bonds, says Vikas Garg

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No more rate cuts, but high yields create tactical opportunities in long bonds, says Vikas Garg
With the RBI signalling a pause after delivering a cumulative 125 bps rate cut and maintaining a status quo stance in its latest policy, the easy money phase now appears to be behind us.

Yet, even as further rate cuts look unlikely, elevated bond yields and widened term spreads are creating selective tactical opportunities—particularly at the longer end of the curve.

Speaking to Kshitij Anand of ETMarkets, Vikas Garg, Head – Fixed Income at Invesco Mutual Fund, explains why real yields remain compelling despite record borrowing, how supply dynamics are shaping the yield curve, and what signals investors should watch for before taking exposure to long-duration funds.

Unrated debt on the rise as investors seek higher yields
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Unrated and lesser-known issuers are increasingly tapping the debt capital market, raising ₹1.5 lakh crore in FY26, driven by investor appetite for higher yields. These issuers prefer unrated structures to bypass procedural delays and regulatory disclosures, with private credit funds and AIFs emerging as key buyers.


He also outlines where corporate bonds, sovereigns and short-duration strategies fit into portfolios in the current macro environment. Edited Excerpts –
Q) Did the RBI policy outcome at this point largely meet expectations post Budget?


A) The MPC delivered a well-balanced policy, maintaining the status quo on both rates and stance, broadly in line with market expectations.
The RBI under Governor Malhotra has continued to emphasize action over guidance, having already delivered a cumulative 125 bps rate cut alongside a series of pre-emptive liquidity measures to ensure adequate system liquidity.Importantly, this policy came against the backdrop of clarity on two key variables fiscal policy and the India-US trade framework.

While the Governor reiterated a pre-emptive approach to liquidity management, the absence of specific announcements on additional liquidity measures disappointed the market.

Q) Do you think India is entering a structurally stronger phase compared to the past few years?

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A) Yes, India continues to stand out as the fastest-growing major economy, well contained inflation, sound credit environment and a favorable demographic profile. This is further supported by credible fiscal and monetary policymaking, along with political stability.

Together, these factors reinforce confidence that the current strong macroeconomic backdrop is not cyclical alone, but has the potential to be sustained.

Even as financial markets are largely driven by domestic factors, global volatility can also impact the domestic markets especially when INR comes under pressure.

Q) If growth accelerates in the second half, could rising inflation alter the RBI’s rate trajectory?

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A) While India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the coming financial year, the growth trajectory is still broadly aligned with potential growth and therefore not inherently inflationary.

Headline inflation this year has been at record lows, even with elevated prices of precious metals, while core inflation excluding these components remains well below the RBI’s 4% target.

Additionally, the forthcoming revision of the CPI basket where food weights are expected to decline could further moderate volatility.

Against this backdrop, inflation does not appear to be at levels that would cause near-term discomfort for the RBI. The key risk to this view remains the monsoon, given the inflation’s sensitivity to agricultural outcomes.

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Q) How meaningful could potential inclusion in Bloomberg bond indices be for Indian bonds?

A) Such inclusion would be very meaningful. FY27 will see a record high gross supply of sovereign and SDL securities which will test the market appetite, especially in the backdrop of no more rate cuts going forward.

With higher gross and net borrowing outlined in the upcoming fiscal year’s Budget, the entry of a large and stable new investor base through index inclusion would provide meaningful relief to the yield curve.

Q) Given lower inflation and strong growth, what duration strategy would you recommend for investors today?

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A) At present, the yield curve appears stretched, and concerns around demand–supply dynamics persist. As a result, the curve may remain steep, particularly with continued heavy supply from both the Centre and states leading to some duration fatigue.

Current 10 yr G-Sec yield at ~6.75% gives a ~150 bps term spread over the 5.25% repo rate, such spreads were last seen during the past rate hike cycle.

With the current inflation running low at ~2% for FY26, the real yields at more than 4.75% are quite elevated, making risk-reward favorable. Even the short end yields are elevated on supply concerns.

Market sentiments have turned positive after the announcement of US-India trade agreement and we expect investor appetite to pick up at these high yields. Also, as RBI conducts more OMOs and possibly G-Sec switch operations, it will help in addressing the huge fiscal supply concerns to an extent.

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Considering the risk-reward dynamics, we believe Ultra Short, Money Market and Low Duration funds provide limited volatility and high accrual.

At the same time, actively managed short-term funds and corporate bond funds with balanced exposure towards 2-4 yr corporate bonds and 5-10 yr G-Secs provide suitable opportunities for core allocation in CY2026.

Q) Is there scope for a tactical entry into long-bond investing this year, and what would signal such an opportunity?

A) Yes, as we move into the next fiscal year, there could be selective tactical opportunities at the longer end of the curve.

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While the government has announced a sizeable borrowing program, it has also built buffers into the fiscal framework. Upside surprises such as higher-than-expected RBI dividends, stronger GST collections, or increased mobilization through NSSF could create windows for tactical long-duration exposure during the year.

Even though with a risk of higher volatility, one can look at Gilt funds as a tactical call given that the term spreads have jumped sharply higher.

Q) How should retail investors approach long-duration funds in the current environment?

A) Retail investors should view long-duration funds primarily as a core allocation towards the buy and hold like strategy of risk-free assets as these funds can be extremely volatile depending upon the market conditions.

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At times, such long-duration funds can also be used for tactical calls to benefit from the capital gain opportunities.

At the current juncture, term spread has widened sharply due to fiscal supply overhang and one can look at long-duration funds as a tactical exposure as the term spread may compress over next few months if demand from long investors like PFs, insurance companies etc picks up towards the FY end.

Q) Would you prefer sovereign bonds, SDLs, or corporate bonds at this stage?

A) At current valuations, corporate bonds in 1 – 4 yr tenor space appear attractive, with spreads over G-Sec offering a healthy accrual opportunity.

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That said, sovereign bonds continue to play an important role as a potential source of capital gains, given their sensitivity to policy and macro developments.

With several negatives already priced in and yields near the upper end of the expected range, sovereigns especially in 5-10 yr space do offer some capital appreciation potential.

Q) How do higher borrowing numbers influence your outlook for the 10-year G-sec?

A) Higher borrowing impacts both the pricing and the shape of the yield curve. We expect the curve to remain relatively steep, with the longer end experiencing continued duration fatigue, while the shorter end stays supported by the RBI’s commitment to maintaining adequate liquidity in the system.

In the current environment, we see the 10-year G-sec trading in a range of 6.65% to 6.80%

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

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BlackRock Advantage International Fund Q4 2025 Commentary

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BlackRock Advantage International Fund Q4 2025 Commentary

BlackRock Advantage International Fund Q4 2025 Commentary

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Opinion: Tech metals a dollar driver

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Opinion: Tech metals a dollar driver

OPINION: The AI-linked commodity boom is a tailwind for the Australian dollar.

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Dinesh Kumar Khara says RBI’s new guidelines balance customer protection and growth

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Dinesh Kumar Khara says RBI’s new guidelines balance customer protection and growth
Fresh regulatory moves by the Reserve Bank of India are set to reshape how banks sell financial products, fund acquisitions and lend to market intermediaries. In an interview with ET Now, Dinesh Kumar Khara Former Chairman, SBI shared his views on the implications.

Mis-selling norms signal stricter oversight

Khara said concerns around mis-selling have been building for years, with regulators stepping in to reinforce trust.

“When it comes to mis-selling, this was something which was brewing for quite some time… banking is a business of trust… unless it is right selling, there could be a challenge. Banks had introduced need assessment, delinked incentives from sales targets and looked at persistency ratios. But now RBI has defined mis-selling clearly and even indicated it could impact the licence… punitive measures are very strict… it is a clear reflection of the regulator’s intent.”

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He added that while the financial impact may be limited in size, customer experience and trust are critical.

Refund rules may need careful implementation
On proposals like refunds and compensation, Khara highlighted both safeguards and operational realities.
“Even now there is a free look period of about 30 days… insurance is a push product… need assessment is important. RBI has even said it could impact licensing. Bundling practices will need to change… recordings and documentation can help verify claims. The intent is welcome, but implementation may need tweaking.”M&A financing a welcome structural change
Khara described the new acquisition financing norms as a positive shift that could keep deals within the domestic banking system.

“M&A financing has been introduced for the first time… opportunities were earlier funded by foreign banks. Final instructions are more relaxed… unlisted acquisitions are permitted and leverage can be refinanced… very pragmatic steps and a welcome move.”

Broker funding rules aimed at curbing speculation
On tighter norms for broker financing, he said the focus is on reducing speculative excesses.

“The intent is to curb speculative trading fuelled by liberal funding… reducing exposure and increasing cash collateral will ensure right financing, while market making and working capital will continue to be funded.”

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The takeaway
The regulatory direction underscores stronger customer protection alongside deeper financial market development. For banks and financial firms, adapting quickly to tighter conduct standards while leveraging new financing opportunities will be key.

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Coles Defends Pricing Practices in Federal Court, Denies Misleading Shoppers

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Coles

Coles is locked in a court battle with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and denies misleading shoppers with its pricing practices.

ACCC previously accused Coles of breaching the law with its “Down Down” promotion.

Coles Denies Misleading Customers

According to a report by The Guardian, ACCC accused Coles of offering “illusory” discounts on many common household products.

However, Coles denies doing this and claims that the promotional prices it offered are genuine discounts.

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“What they would be concerned with when they’re walking down the aisle trying to work out what to buy today for their shopping is whether the claimed discount … was fair dinkum,” John Sheahan KC. Sheahan represents Coles in its federal court battle.

“So long as the was price is a genuine price, not contrived or ephemeral, then the consumer’s interest is appropriately satisfied,” he added.

ACCC’s Argument

According to ABC News, ACCC used three prices Coles charged on a tin of dog food to show that the supermarket chain has been misleading shoppers.

Between April 2022 and February 2023, the supermarket offered a 1.2 kilogram loaf of Nature’s Gift Wet Dog Food for $4, said ACCC legal counsel Garry Rich.

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The price then went up by 50 per cent to $6 after. This lasted for seven days. On the eighth day, it went down to $4.50, a promotion that Coles labelled as “Down Down.”

This third price is 13 per cent more than the initial $6 shoppers were previously paying for the same product.

“It did not disclose that a reasonable consumer would not have understood that Coles had increased the price to $6 for just seven days, immediately before the promotion, and that for 296 days before that, the price was $4,” ACCC’s legal counsel argued.

However, Sheahan dismissed the argument by saying, “In the end, all prices are temporary. Nothing lasts forever.”

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Asia FX drifts lower as dollar firms ahead of Fed, econ. cues

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Asia FX drifts lower as dollar firms ahead of Fed, econ. cues

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Hyatt Hotels chairman steps down over Jeffrey Epstein ties

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Hyatt Hotels chairman steps down over Jeffrey Epstein ties

Billionaire Thomas Pritzker said he had exercised “terrible judgement” in keeping contact with Epstein.

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Northern California Intermediate Tax-Exempt Fund Q4 2025 Commentary (NCITX)

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Northern California Intermediate Tax-Exempt Fund Q4 2025 Commentary (NCITX)

Northern Trust Asset Management is a global investment manager that helps investors navigate changing market environments in efforts to realize their long-term objectives.

Entrusted with $1.2 trillion in assets under management as of March 31, 2024, we understand that investing ultimately serves a greater purpose and believe investors should be compensated for the risks they take — in all market environments and any investment strategy. That’s why we combine robust capital markets research, expert portfolio construction and comprehensive risk management in an effort to craft innovative and efficient solutions that seek to deliver targeted investment outcomes.

As engaged contributors to our communities, we consider it a great privilege to serve our investors and our communities with integrity, respect and transparency.

Northern Trust Asset Management is composed of Northern Trust Investments, Inc., Northern Trust Global Investments Limited, Northern Trust Fund Managers (Ireland) Limited, Northern Trust Global Investments Japan, K.K., NT Global Advisors, Inc., 50 South Capital Advisors, LLC, Northern Trust Asset Management Australia Pty Ltd, and investment personnel of The Northern Trust Company of Hong Kong Limited and The Northern Trust Company. Note: This account is not managed or monitored by Northern Trust Asset Management, and any messages sent via Seeking Alpha will not receive a response. For inquiries or communication, please use Northern Trust Asset Management’s official channels.

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Thailand’s Economy Ends 2025 Stronger Than Expected, Boosting New Government

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Thailand’s Economy Ends 2025 Stronger Than Expected, Boosting New Government

Thailand’s economy closed 2025 on a surprisingly strong note, with GDP expanding 2.5% year-on-year in Q4, well above forecasts of 1.3% and outpacing the previous quarter’s 1.2%. On a quarterly basis, growth reached 1.9%, nearly triple the expected pace.

Key Takeaways

  • Q4 2025 GDP: Expanded 2.5% year-on-year, stronger than forecasts and above Q3’s 1.2%.
  • Quarterly Growth: Rose 1.9% from Q3, exceeding the highest Bloomberg survey estimate of 1.9%.
  • Full-Year 2025: Economy grew 2.4% overall.
  • 2026 Outlook: The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) upgraded projections, expecting growth between 1.5%–2.5%, driven by exports and tourism recovery.

For the full year, GDP rose 2.4%, driven by a rebound in exports, a surge in tourism arrivals, and targeted government stimulus measures. The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has now set its 2026 growth outlook at 1.5%–2.5%, citing continued recovery in external demand and tourism as key drivers.

The stronger-than-expected performance comes at a pivotal moment for Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who recently secured a coalition deal. The economic momentum provides his administration with political capital as it pledges to stabilize the economy and ease cost-of-living pressures.

Despite the upbeat figures, Thailand’s growth remains modest compared to regional peers. Malaysia and Singapore grew at more than double Thailand’s pace in 2025, while Vietnam expanded nearly four times faster, underscoring the competitiveness challenges ahead.

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Could this college become Greater Manchester’s next university?

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UK Management College has big plans as it opens new Salford campus

Professor Jason Powell, the provost and chief academic officer of UK Management College, pictured at UKMC's new Salford campus

Professor Jason Powell, the provost and chief academic officer of UK Management College, at UKMC’s new Salford campus(Image: Reach plc)

A college that’s just opened a new campus in Salford and has bases across the country is celebrating its tenth anniversary – and now hopes to become a university in its own right. UK Management College was founded in 2016 by husband and wife Zahidul and Abida Islam to focus on offering education opportunities to members of socially disadvantaged or underrepresented groups, and to older people looking to return to education.

From just a handful of students in 2016, the college has grown to serve 7,000 learners at three sites in Greater Manchester and campuses in Sunderland, Newcastle and Derby. Its offering has gone beyond management courses and it now offers degrees, in partnership with other universities, in subjects including fashion and events management.

Now, its provost Professor Jason Powell says, the college has started planning to become a university in its own right and to be able to offer its own degrees. He said: “Last year, we created what’s called the Transforming Lives Strategic Plan 2025 to 2030. That was written in consultation with students, staff and external stakeholders, not by myself as the provost of the institution.

“And part of that, in terms of the strategic direction of the college, is that we do aspire to be a university in our own right with our own degree-awarding powers. That’s really important and that obviously gives more autonomy for the future.”

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Becoming a university is a key long-term goal for UKMC’s management team, which it will work on to 2030 and beyond. Prof Powell said: “That’s important as a marker and shows our ambition and credibility and legitimacy. I’ve worked in higher education for years now with Russell Group universities, post-92 universities, as well as the independent sector. Some of my proudest moments have come from UK Management College.

“One of the fantastic insights that I get from working here is about intergenerational justice and social justice for those groups who traditionally have been denied access to university level education.”

UKMC will continue working with its current university partners, including Canterbury Christ Church University, Arts University Bournemouth, and the University of Wolverhampton.

Prof Powell said: “We very much value the university partnerships that we have and may have in the future.” He added: “These partnerships are not just created overnight, they’re cultivated carefully and it shows us as a quality beacon of excellence in order to attract leading universities to deliver their programmes in the heart of Greater Manchester and across the UK.”

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Those degree courses were developed through consulting with local communities as UKMC continued to grow. Prof Powell said: “From 2016 onwards, the college had a number of different types of diploma courses. And in 2023 we decided to actively listen to the communities by which we serve – listening to community-based organisations as well as, say for example, faith based organisations, Jobcentre plus, the NHS – to actually find out what type of programmes were needed.

“What they told us was we needed more HE-orientated programmes to be put in place. The problem that we found was that there were many potential learners who were denied access to education in the university sector. So to that end, we decided to cultivate a number of strategic partnerships with universities in order to provide opportunities for those socially disadvantaged students who may have been out of the education system for a long time, but who wanted that opportunity.”

Prof Powell works closely with founder Zahidul Islam on their vision for the college. He said: “Zahidul is the CEO of UK Management College, and he’s one of the most passionate entrepreneurs that I’ve ever met, and is very student driven. Its fundamental value from the beginning was about active listening to the communities which we serve.

“And that was about looking at the most socially disadvantaged and most underrepresented groups in education who should be given opportunity. We saw it as a human right, a fundamental human right, that no one should be denied access to education irrespective of social identity or social division.

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UK Management College's new Salford campus at Carolina Way

UK Management College’s new Salford campus at Carolina Way(Image: Reach plc)

“And we’re a very strong widening participation college. One of the strong pillars and foundations of the college for students has been about enhanced student support.. from their first interaction with the college to plans for when they graduate.”

That mission, Prof Powell says, led the college to open its campuses in the North East and the East Midlands. “Social disadvantage doesn’t just materialise in Greater Manchester, it’s replicated across the UK,” he said. “And we’ve found through very careful demographic analysis in those areas many for example mature students who were denied again access to mainstream education. So to meet a fundamental need in their areas, we cultivated campuses.

“We engaged in the process of active listening. We’re a member of the Chambers of Commerce in these different regions, so we listen to them on the courses that should be cultivated, but for standardisation the student experience is exactly the same as what it would be in Greater Manchester, Derby, Newcastle and Sunderland.”

The Salford campus, 15 minutes or so from MediaCity, opened in January. Prof Powell said: “Salford is an emerging economy and obviously you’ve got MediaCity about a mile away and it’s a hot spot for business, it’s a hot spot of opportunities for learners in order to develop their skills.”

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The college also opens itself up to the public and to the private sector through its events and open days, where potential employers and students can find out more about what it has to offer. The next such event is the Careers Fair on Tuesday, February 24, which features exhibitors including NHS England, Manchester City Council, Salford City Council, KPMG, Wellway Rehab Solutions, and Kids Planet Salford.

Olympic medallist Chelsie Giles MBE will join as a guest speaker, while activities designed to help students find work will include mock interviews, CV building workshops and career guidance sessions.

Prof Powell said: “Today’s student is tomorrow’s stakeholder. The opportunities to learn on that day will be immense and the links and the contacts that they’ll cultivate will help them, not just in terms of their careers and their employability, which we have a very strong focus on here, but in terms of their development and growth.”

He added: “We have further other events coming as well, and we just do this consistently, so we want people, students, to come in to see our facilities, speak to our staff, see what courses we do, and come here and get excited about what they can do for the future.”

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  • UKMC’s next Careers Fair will be held on Tuesday, February 24, at the college’s Salford campus at 17 Carolina Way from 10am to 4pm. For information, visit https://ukmc.ac.uk/event-details/ukmc-careers-fair-2026
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AppLovin Stock Q4: Market Is Focused On Competition; I’m Focused On ROAS From AppDiscovery

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AppLovin Stock Q4: Market Is Focused On Competition; I’m Focused On ROAS From AppDiscovery

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