SYDNEY: Asian share markets firmed on Monday as the boom in all things AI continued to drive demand, offsetting a lack of progress in Gulf peace talks that challenged optimism on a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifted oil prices. While negotiators from Washington and Tehran are apparently working to hammer out a deal, President Donald Trump has been notably silent on their progress. Speaking on Saturday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ‌said the U.S. ⁠was ready ⁠to restart attacks on Iran if a deal could not be reached. Tensions in the region were not helped by an Israeli push further into Lebanon in the battle against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group.

“While uncertainties remain, the acute risk phase for the global economy should be over if tankers can begin moving again,” said Michael Feroli, head of U.S. economics at JPMorgan.

“Still, not everything would return to its pre-conflict place – oil prices are likely to remain elevated for some time, as inventories get rebuilt and the supply infrastructure in the Middle East is repaired.”

Indeed, the lack of news nudged Brent up 1.9% to $92.89 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 2.4% to $89.46.

Asian share markets remain underpinned ⁠by demand ‌for semiconductors and AI-related gear, with Japan’s Nikkei up a further 0.5%, having risen almost 5% last week to all-time highs.

South Korea rose 1.3%, after surging 8% last week, while Taiwan climbed almost 6% last week. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific ⁠shares outside Japan added 0.2%.
Nvidia boss Jensen Huang kicks off the Computex trade show in Taiwan on Monday with a speech about AI in which he is expected to expound on his company’s latest product efforts as well as the island’s central role in the industry. COUNTDOWN TO PAYROLLS
For Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures dipped 0.3%, while DAX futures eased 0.2% and FTSE futures lost 0.5%.

S&P 500 futures were up 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures firmed 0.4% after hitting records last week.

Yet the gains have been narrowly based with the AI-linked big 10 companies making up 40% of the S&P 500 and only 21 stocks of the 500 making record highs. While tech stocks climbed almost 16% in May, consumer discretionary and healthcare managed little more than ‌2%, and consumer staples lost more than 3%.

The inflationary pulse from oil continues to hamper bond markets as U.S. 10-year yields rose 3 basis points to 4.470%. Markets imply a 50-50 chance the Federal Reserve will have to hike rates by year-end to prevent rising prices ⁠from getting baked into inflationary expectations.

A host of Fed members are set to speak this week, while major data include the ISM survey of manufacturing and the May payrolls report on Friday.

Market forecasts are for a solid rise of 85,000 in employment, keeping the jobless rate steady at 4.3%. Anything stronger would likely see the odds of a hike narrow further.

The market’s hawkish outlook has kept the dollar broadly steady, with the Japanese yen and the euro hampered by those regions’ reliance on energy imports.

The dollar was a shade firmer on the yen at 159.42 , but bulls were wary of risking Japanese intervention on a break of the 160.00 barrier.

The euro stood at $1.1645, having spent the past week hemmed in between $1.1585 and $1.1661.

In commodity markets, gold was little changed at $4,535 an ounce, having found little support as a safe haven or as a hedge against inflation.

As the mid- and small-cap segment extend their outperformance in May, various stock futures are seeing heightened activity. Here are analysts’ top derivatives bets for the month.

GE VERNOVA T&D INDIA

Change in Open Interest in June Series: 55.45% Change in price in June Series: 1%

RATIONALE: The sharp spike in open interest and price suggests a long buildup in the stock. “Technically, the stock has delivered a decisive breakout above the Rs 4,950 resistance zone and is sustaining near its lifetime high, indicating strong price acceptance at higher levels,” said Dhupesh Dhameja, derivatives analyst at Samco Securities. As long as the stock holds above Rs 4,850, the bullish structure remains intact with potential to move toward Rs 5,650, said Dhameja.

COMPUTER AGE MANAGEMENT (CAMS)
Change in Open Interest in June Series: 4.78% Change in price in June Series: 0.57%

RATIONALE: CAMS is showing strength on the charts, shaping a constructive setup after a phase of healthy consolidation, said Dhameja.
“The stock continues to maintain a higher high–higher low structure and is comfortably trading above its rising 20-DMA, indicating that the primary trend remains fi rmly positive,” he said. “Price action near the Rs 780–800 zone suggests accumulation at higher levels rather than distribution, reflecting strong market participation.” Dhameja sees a potential upside of Rs 850, while Rs 750 remains a critical support level, below which the prevailing bullish structure would weaken.

SUZLON ENERGY
Change in Open Interest in June Series: 2.93% Change in price in June Series: 0.29%

RATIONALE: Following the stock decline from Rs 86 to 38 in the past 18 months, Suzlon has rebounded over 50% to Rs 57.75.

“At the current juncture, it is trading on the verge of a fresh breakout on the daily charts,” said Vipin Kumar, AVP – Derivatives and Technical Research at Globe Capital Market. “The recent surge in prices is well supported by a combination of long buildup and short covering in the last couple of trading sessions, alongside a strong rollover of 95%.” Kumar suggests traders buy its June futures in the Rs 55-57 range with a stop loss at Rs 52.5 for potential upside towards Rs 62-66.

GMR AIRPORTS
Change in Open Interest in June Series: 4.1% Change in price in June Series: 2.55%

RATIONALE: GMR Airports has delivered a decisive breakout above the Rs 98–99 resistance zone, accompanied by a sharp surge in volumes, indicating strong institutional participation, said Ajit Mishra, SVP- Research, Religare Broking.

“The stock is trading above its key short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages, reinforcing the bullish structure. After spending several months in a broad consolidation range, the recent move suggests the beginning of a fresh uptrend with improving momentum indicators and RSI turning higher from neutral territory,” he said. Mishra suggests buying with a target of Rs 109 and a stop loss at Rs 97.

SIEMENS
Change in Open Interest in June Series: 5.74% Change in price in June Series: -1.96%

RATIONALE: Kumar said that Siemens is well placed across multiple time frames, trading above both its short-term and long-term moving averages. “At the current juncture, it is on the verge of a fresh breakout from a two year-long congestion zone,” he said, suggesting adding the stock in the 3700–3800 range, with a stop loss at Rs 3540 for a price target of Rs 4200.

MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA
Change in Open Interest in June Series: 7.69% Change in price in June Series: -2.12%

RATIONALE: The price and open interest suggest a fresh short buildup. Mishra said M&M continues to remain under pressure, trading below its key moving averages. Traders may consider short positions with a target of Rs 2,910 and a stop loss at Rs 3,170, said Mishra.

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