In his book Celebration of Discipline, American theologian Richard Foster warned that noise, hurry and crowds were the most significant obstacles to a vibrant spiritual life. The same could be said of successful value investing. When it comes to investing, ignoring the noise, exhibiting patience and being indifferent to the prevailing sentiment of the crowds sounds like the right thing to do. Most people would not argue with these principles, yet behavior suggests otherwise.
If there ever were a quarter of noise, this may have been it. The first 90 days of 2026 experienced near-record stock dispersion—that is, an unusually wide spread between the best- and worst-performing stocks—based on whatever company or industry the market happened to view that day as an AI winner or loser. For instance, the difference between the highest- and lowest-return stocks in the MSCI World ex-USA Index has been well above average, with a gap in performance of over 80 percentage points in the quarter, as investors debated the impact of AI. Then, in the last month of the quarter, bombs started falling in Iran and oil ran up well past $100 per barrel. As I write today, trying to make a deadline for publication with something timely and relevant, the White House announced progress toward a de-escalation. Noise galore.
Source: FactSet. Monthly data from 12/31/2015 through 3/31/2026. Returns represent the average performance of top and bottom decile stocks within the MSCI World ex USA Index; spreads are calculated as top decile minus bottom decile. Charts are for informational purposes only and do not depict the performance of any Harris | Oakmark strategy or product.
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We aren’t technology neophytes; we believe AI is for real and is changing the way many of us work, and there will be winners and losers. However, we do believe the market has been too eager to declare victory and defeat. Where there is a real threat of change, we lower our estimate of value by reflecting a higher risk of disruption. In the case of large, deeply embedded enterprise software companies such as SAP, we think the market has skewed too negative on the risks introduced by AI, when in fact, there is a real possibility that AI is additive. We do not pretend to know how the Iran conflict is going to end, but there have been scores of these conflicts over my nearly 27 years at Harris | Oakmark and the world keeps turning. Remember, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil futures have both been in the triple digits and negative over the past six years. Meanwhile, population and incomes grow and the global economic pie along with them. We see the same bewildering headlines you do, but remain focused on the clarity of business values, which are far more stable than daily headlines.
The only way to really hurry your way to success in the equity markets is to have insight into the next tick and the ability to act before it moves. This requires an advantage in physics, not insight. At Harris | Oakmark, we estimate the intrinsic value of a business. There is an identifiable reason (or reasons) why the market price and our estimate differ. Often it boils down to our time horizon being longer than the marginal market participant. It takes time for value to be realized. Fixed income investors seem to understand this better than equity investors. In the bond world, one typically starts the conversation with duration—in other words, the desired time horizon for the securities you are looking to own. Equities are perpetual in duration, which means their theoretical time horizon is longer than that of even the longest bonds. Yet much of the market coverage focuses on one-minute charts, and the financial press seems to like or dislike a company based on how well it performed over the last quarter relative to broader expectations, with almost no airtime given to the long-term outlook for the business. Today, an estimated 60% of index options tied to the S&P 500 have same-day expirations and there are even new 5- and 10-minute option contracts being marketed for indices and cryptocurrencies. This short-termism reflects investors losing touch with the actual duration of the assets they own. Just because you can trade a stock one minute at a time (or less) doesn’t mean you should. At Harris | Oakmark, we think of equities as proportionate interests in real businesses that have real value based on the total future cash flows of the business. We have more insight into what the business ought to look like over time than where the stock will go over the next day, quarter or year. Don’t get me wrong, we would love the value gap to close the second we buy a stock, but unfortunately that is not how markets function.
Following the crowd is the easier—but more dangerous—path. I’m sure I’m not the only one who pleaded with my parents that, “everyone else was doing it” to which they replied, “if everyone else jumped off a cliff would you?” In markets, it is generally cause for concern when everyone seems to believe the same thing. Market participants make markets and markets price assets. Crowding occurs when there is more than typical agreement between market participants. That “agreement” gets priced into the asset such that there is little room for different outcomes without the stock getting pummeled. Beyond that, crowding introduces endogenous (or self-inflicted) risks that go beyond fundamentals, such as distorting liquidity dynamics on a security such that the distribution of future price outcomes skews negatively. By nature, as value investors we seek mispriced stocks—specifically, stocks selling well below their intrinsic value. Often this means going against the “crowd”. In our view, if everyone seems to believe something, you should assume a good portion of that belief is priced into the security. Meaning, if you and the crowds are right, there is little to no excess return and if wrong, painfully below average returns are likely. When a stock is undervalued, investors can afford to be wrong given the stock is unlikely priced to perfection. This is the essence of the “margin of safety” concept and the reason we require a significant discount before investing in any company.
We cannot promise much as regulated investment advisors but know that we are truly committed to a disciplined process that ignores the noise, exhibits patience, and is indifferent to the crowd.
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Thank you for your partnership with us in our international equity portfolios.
We are eager to hear from you, so please do not be shy.
Tony Coniaris, CFA, Portfolio Manager
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Important Disclosure
The securities mentioned above comprise the following percentages of the Oakmark International Fund’s total net assets as of 03/31/2026: SAP 2.0%. Portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice and are not intended as recommendations of individual stocks.
This material is not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation to buy, sell or hold a security or an investment strategy, and is not provided in a fiduciary capacity. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor, or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her financial professionals.
The information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein (including current investment themes, the portfolio managers’ research and investment process, and portfolio characteristics) are for informational purposes only and represent the investments and views of the portfolio managers and Harris Associates L.P. as of the date written and are subject to change and may change based on market and other conditions and without notice. This content is not a recommendation of or an offer to buy or sell a security and is not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate.
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Certain comments herein are based on current expectations and are considered “forward-looking statements.” These forward-looking statements reflect assumptions and analyses made by the portfolio managers and Harris Associates L.P. based on their experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments, and other factors they believe are relevant. Actual future results are subject to a number of investment and other risks and may prove to be different from expectations. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements.
Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. There is no guarantee the Fund’s investment objective will be achieved. Value stocks may fall out of favor with investors and underperform growth stocks during given periods. Foreign securities presents risks that in some ways may be greater than investments in U.S. investments. Those risks include: currency fluctuation; different regulation, accounting standards, trading practices and levels of available information; generally higher transaction costs; and political risks. The Fund’s portfolio tends to be invested in a relatively small number of stocks. As a result, the appreciation or depreciation of any one security held by the Fund will have a greater impact on the Fund’s net asset value than it would if the Fund invested in a larger number of securities. Although that strategy has the potential to generate attractive returns over time, it also increases the Fund’s volatility. These and other risk considerations are described in detail in the Fund’s prospectus.
Before investing in any Oakmark Fund, you should carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, management fees and other expenses. This and other important information is contained in a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing. For more information, please visit Oakmark.com or call 1-800-OAKMARK (1-800-625-6275).
Harris Associates Securities L.P., Distributor, Member FINRA.
I focus on a rigorous fundamentals-foremost equity and credit research. I currently work as a financial advisor/planner, and do analysis in my free time. I have an undergrad in business administration, an MBA in finance, and currently am a doctoral candidate (a DBA with a concentration in Finance and Investment Management). My research style typically involves process-driven research, followed by blending several valuation models together to get a blended, 12 month price target. I enjoy utilizing full DCF analysis in conjunction with SOTP, peer/multiples analysis, and risk-adjusted approaches. I thoroughly enjoy reading filings, technical documentation relevant to the sector, and then translating that data into conclusions with actionable insights. I enjoy learning about the various sectors and companies I find myself researching, and always feel like there is something to learn. As a curious individual, equity and credit research is very fulfilling, and even fun!I always try to find 2-4 variables that drive value or hinder growth, stress test them, and then let fundamental evidence incorporated with book-value set my viewpoint for the research project. I enjoy the energy sector, commodities, tech, and financial sectors the most. I joined Seeking Alpha to share my thoughts with a wide audience. I originally started with sharing my analysis with a few of my friends who are also advisors and/or analysts. I am always open to a myriad of viewpoints, as I feel the most accurate viewpoints and research is made through a collection of great minds working together to figure something out. If you appreciate thorough research, and want to learn more about a company beyond just what is inside of their books, then I believe you will enjoy the research that I work on.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
The views expressed in this article are solely the author’s own and do not represent the opinions or recommendations of an SRO or broker-dealer. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should consult their own financial advisor before making investment decisions. /////
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Shares of IT companies may surge when markets reopen on Wednesday, as their American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) rallied overnight amid overall optimism on Wall Street, driven by easing concerns about AI disruption and hopes surrounding fresh Iran-US peace talks.
Infosys ADR jumped more than 5%, while Wipro ADR gained more than 3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index gained more than 1% on Monday. Adobe shares jumped more than 6%, while Salesforce rallied 5%. Accenture rallied nearly 7%, while Microsoft gained 4%.
The S&P 500 erased all the losses it racked up since the war started in the Middle East. The blue chip index gained over 1% to end at 6,886, higher than its February 27 closing level. Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, rose 0.63%.
Goldman Sachs CEO on AI
Goldman Sachs released its Q1 earnings on Monday. The company reported a net revenue of $17.23 billion in the January-March quarter, recording a 14% year-on-year growth compared to $15.06 billion in the year-ago period. The net revenue shot up 28% sequentially versus $13.45 billion in Q4CY25.
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Commenting on the company’s results, David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, said, “Goldman Sachs delivered very strong performance for our shareholders this quarter, even as market conditions became more volatile. Our clients continue to depend on us for high-quality execution and insights amid the broader uncertainty, and we remain confident in how we’ve positioned our businesses. The geopolitical landscape remains very complex – so disciplined risk management must remain core to how we operate.” During an analyst’s call, Solomon said he is hugely forward-leaning on the power of artificial intelligence to accelerate growth at the bank. “Whenever you have accelerations in new technology, there are going to be bumps, there will be risk issues and recalibrations. But the power of this technology to use it in enterprise to increase efficiency is incredibly constructive,” he added. Entrepreneur and financial expert Gurmeet Chaddha highlighted that Solomon claimed that AI taking over enterprise software is not easy. Notably, this comes after tech stocks saw a massive decline earlier this year with the launch of new and innovative artificial intelligence tools by AI startup Anthropic, which triggered worries around disruption in the software services. Back on Dalal Street, India’s much-touted IT services stocks, including Infosys, Wipro, TCS and HCLTech, saw a sharp selloff. However, while some doomsday prophets painted a grim picture for IT shareholders, some analysts were quick to point out that an overall replacement of software engineers by AI is unlikely. The new technology would instead increase efficiency across the companies, boosting margins, according to them.
Fresh hopes for Iran-US war peace talks
Reports claimed that the US continued to engage with Iran to make a peace deal even as it blocked the latter’s ports after the collapse of ceasefire talks over the weekend. Iran and the US have left the door open to dialogue, and a US official said there was forward momentum toward an agreement, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter. US President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said that his administration received a call from Iran who is now eager to negotiate after the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said that “they’d like to make a deal very badly.” He reiterated that the primary sticking point in the negotiations remains Iran’s nuclear ambitions, asserting that “Iran will not have a nuclear weapon”.
As a result, Brent crude futures declined nearly 2% to trade at $97.5 per barrel, while WTI Crude futures dropped more than 2% to $97 per barrel on Tuesday morning. The cooling oil prices and rising hopes for peace talks boosted global markets.
The raging war has stoked inflationary worries in the US. Peace talks hopes eased some of those concerns, which in turn may boost the IT stocks as these companies derive a major portion of their revenue from the US economy.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The kitchenware brand says it has outperformed the market
One of kitchenware brand ProCook’s portfolio of stores (Image: Derby Telegraph)
Kitchenware brand Procook has reported a strong fourth quarter as it continues to invest in new branch openings around the UK. The Gloucestershire-headquartered retailer saw a 19.2 per cent rise in revenue to £18.5m for the 12 weeks to the end of March, driven by sales online and in store.
The results mean the company posted full-year revenue of £85.5m, ahead of market expectations, and up 23 per cent year on year and 11.8 per cent on a like-for-like basis. EBITDA – a measure of performance – is estimated to be slightly ahead of expectations for the full year.
Procook told investors on Tuesday (April 14) it had “outperformed” the UK kitchenware market by more than 13 percentage points during quarter four, and by more than 20 per cent across the full year. It also said operating profit was set to be in line with expectations.
The brand opened three new stores in the fourth quarter, increasing its total UK retail estate to 78 branches, of which eight are now in a new bigger format. Last year, the company, which sells cookware, tableware, electricals and kitchen gadgets, spent £5.3m on store openings as it looks to target 100 outlets in the UK.
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Lee Tappenden, chief executive of Procook, said: “We have delivered a strong fourth quarter and full year performance, significantly outperforming the market and improving profitability, whilst accelerating investment in our new store opening programme.
“Strong revenue growth across both our expanding store footprint and online reflects substantial increases in new customers attracted to our brand and repeat purchases, demonstrating that our unique product proposition and service focus is really resonating with consumers.”
Mr Tappenden said while the business was “mindful” of the potential macroeconomic effects of any protracted geopolitical instability, it would “look forward” to building its market share.
“Our ongoing store openings, initiatives to increase brand awareness, and disciplined investments to support growth, position us well to deliver on our medium term ambition of 100 stores, £100m revenue and 10 per cent operating profit margin,” he added.
The Bristol-headquartered maker of Golden Virgina is continuing to focus on tobacco-free products
Imperial Brands’ global HQ is in Bristol(Image: BAM Construction)
Tobacco giant Imperial Brands has reiterated its guidance for the full year amid a “more uncertain” geopolitical and macro environment. The announcement on Tuesday comes as the business looks to focus on tobacco-free products as smoking rates continue to decline.
The Golden Virginia maker said its “robust” pricing and continued investment in next-generation products (NGP) means it expects low-single-digit growth in tobacco and NGP net revenue for the first half. Imperial said its tobacco performance was underpinned by pricing and only a modest volume drop in combustibles.
Group adjusted operating profit is expected to be slightly ahead year-on-year for the first half, and is likely to be stronger in H2, the business added.
Imperial also said that while the conflict in the Middle East had caused “no material business impact to date”, the situation remained “uncertain”.
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“We are pleased to report a good start to our 2030 strategy, with strong momentum behind our execution and our transformation towards becoming a more consumer-centric, data led, agile and efficient challenger,” a statement to the stock market said.
“During the first half, we began the implementation of our new long-term partnership with Capgemini and took further action to focus on our supply chain footprint, while continuing the rollout of our enterprise IT applications.”
Imperial Brands’ interim results for the six months ended March 2026 will be announced on May 12.
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Imperial Brands’ tobacco volumes declined again in the first half, but that’s to be expected as more smokers kick the habit and non-combustible alternatives continue their expansion.
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“Low single-digit reductions are on the manageable side. In the meantime, revenue has grown modestly, supported by robust pricing and a mid-to-high digit percentage rise in sales of next generation products. With full-year guidance intact, Imperial is setting out its stall as a strong defensive investment, and despite a note of caution, it has seen no material business impact from this year’s tumultuous geopolitical events.”
The latest trading update comes just a day after the company confirmed it would launch the second tranche of its ongoing share buyback scheme. The business told investors on Monday that it intends to repurchase stocks worth £725m as part of a wider £1.45bn programme announced last year.
A sharp jolt rattled homes across the Central West of New South Wales on Tuesday evening as a magnitude 4.5 earthquake struck near Orange, sending tremors through the region and prompting hundreds of resident reports.
Breaking News: Sharp 4.5 Magnitude Earthquake Rattles Orange and Central West NSW Homes Tuesday Night
The quake hit at about 8:19 p.m. local time Tuesday, with its epicenter located in the Cabonne area, roughly 43 kilometers (27 miles) southwest of Orange near Mount Canobolas. Geoscience Australia and the U.S. Geological Survey confirmed the magnitude at 4.5, with a shallow depth of approximately 10 kilometers (6.2 miles).
Residents across the Central West described the sudden shaking, with many reporting houses rattling, windows vibrating and a brief but noticeable jolt. “It felt like a heavy truck passing by but much stronger,” one Orange resident said in social media posts shortly after the event. Others likened it to “a freight train rumbling through” or “someone banging on the walls.”
The tremor was widely felt in surrounding towns including Blayney, Canowindra, Cargo and Millthorpe, with shaking intensity reaching moderate levels (Modified Mercalli Intensity IV to V) closer to the epicenter. Reports also came in from farther afield, including parts of Sydney about 230 kilometers east, where some experienced weak shaking. More than 270 felt reports had been logged with monitoring agencies within the first hour, according to data from VolcanoDiscovery and Geoscience Australia.
No immediate reports of damage or injuries emerged Tuesday night. Emergency services in the region confirmed they had received calls from concerned residents but no structural issues or requests for assistance related to the quake. NSW State Emergency Service crews stood by as a precaution, but authorities emphasized the event appeared minor in impact.
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Geoscience Australia Senior Duty Seismologist Hugh Glanville noted that while the region experiences seismic activity, individual events are generally not directly linked. Senior Seismologist Professor Phil Cummins previously described the area southwest of Orange as a “cluster” zone of activity near Mount Canobolas. He explained that even smaller quakes in the 2.5 magnitude range release energy equivalent to about 600 kilograms of TNT, stemming from gradual stress buildup within the Australian tectonic plate.
This 4.5 magnitude event marks the largest earthquake to hit the immediate Orange area in recent years, surpassing a 4.3 magnitude tremor recorded about 25 kilometers southwest of the city in April 2017. Over the past century, Geoscience Australia has logged 589 earthquakes within 100 kilometers of Orange, with 65 exceeding magnitude 3. The region’s strongest on record in that period was around magnitude 4.6 near Cowra in 1947.
Australia sits well away from major plate boundaries, making significant quakes relatively rare compared to countries like New Zealand or Japan. However, intraplate earthquakes such as this one occur periodically due to ancient faults and stress within the stable continental crust. Seismologists say aftershocks are possible but typically smaller and less frequent in such settings. No aftershocks had been recorded in the immediate hours following the main event.
The timing — early evening on a Tuesday — meant many families were at home, heightening the surprise factor. Social media platforms lit up with posts from across the Central West and beyond. “Did anyone else feel that in Orange? Thought my house was about to fall down!” one user wrote. Another from Blayney added, “Windows rattled for a good 10-15 seconds. Pretty scary for a second there.”
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Local officials urged residents to check for any minor damage such as cracked plaster or dislodged items, though none was widely reported. In a region known for its agricultural and mining economy, including operations near Cadia, authorities confirmed no immediate impact on infrastructure or mines.
The Central West has seen increased seismic monitoring in recent years, partly due to the cluster of activity near Mount Canobolas. While most events remain small, experts continue to study the area’s geology to better understand potential risks. A larger 5.2 magnitude quake struck north of Nyngan in May 2025, one of the stronger events in NSW in recent memory.
For those who felt the shake, the experience served as a reminder of the Earth’s constant, if subtle, movements even in stable parts of the world. Geoscience Australia encourages residents to submit felt reports via their website to help refine seismic models and improve future preparedness.
As the night progressed, calm returned to the region with no further tremors reported. Emergency hotlines advised people to “drop, cover and hold” in the event of any future strong shaking, a standard safety message for Australian communities.
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This latest quake highlights the ongoing, low-level seismic activity that shapes the Australian landscape over geological time. While causing no major disruption Tuesday, it provided a brief jolt — literally — to thousands going about their evening routines in the Central West.
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