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Oil nears two-month lows on reports of imminent US-Iran peace deal

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Oil nears two-month lows on reports of imminent US-Iran peace deal
Oil prices fell more than 3% on Friday to their lowest levels in nearly two months as U.S. and Iranian officials said they were close to an agreement to halt their war in the Middle East.

Brent futures were down $3.34, or 3.7%, at $87.04 a barrel by 1035 CDT (1535 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $3.11, or 3.55%, to $84.60. Both contracts were at their lowest prices since April 17.

“The market thinks we’re closer to the deal,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with ‌Price Futures Group.

A ⁠memorandum between ⁠the U.S. and Iran to halt the war in the Gulf could be signed as soon as Sunday, a Western source told Reuters on Friday, with Geneva emerging as the likeliest venue.

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Iran’s Fars news agency, however, citing a source close to the negotiations, denied that speculation.


U.S. President Donald Trump called off his threatened air strikes on Thursday, while Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that final negotiations on the memorandum would focus on nuclear and economic issues but would exclude discussions about Iran’s missile programme.
Iran’s IRNA news agency, meanwhile, said nuclear talks would take place within ⁠a 60-day ‌period after a memorandum was signed. “Headlines are driving the market once again as confidence grows that an eventual deal will be struck and the Strait (of Hormuz) reopens,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst ⁠at PVM Oil Associates.

The caveat, however, is that global and regional oil stocks are still low and could drift lower, even with a deal, as it would take time to ensure uninterrupted oil flows, he added.

On Thursday, Iran announced a complete closure of the strait, saying it would fire on any ship trying to pass through the waterway. Traffic through the strait, which normally carries a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has been extremely limited as a result of the war.

The U.S. military, however, said on social media that commercial ships continued to transit the waterway.

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“We ‌believe the market reaches an inflection point in late July if we do not see oil flows resuming before then,” ING analysts said in a note. “This is when inventory levels and seasonally stronger demand push prices significantly higher towards $120-130 ⁠per barrel.”

Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 average Brent forecast to $80 a barrel on higher supply and lower demand, but expects prices to exceed the 2025 average on stockpiling of OECD commercial oil stocks and a security premium for disruptions.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its forecast for 2026 world oil demand growth to 970,000 barrels per day on Thursday from a previous 1.17 million bpd – its second straight downward revision.

The producer group also said consumption would eventually rebound. It expects oil demand in 2027 to rise by 1.73 million bpd, up 190,000 bpd from its previous forecast.

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Modi charisma key factor in BJP’s bid to retain all 26 seats in Gujarat

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Modi charisma key factor in BJP's bid to retain all 26 seats in Gujarat
Ahmedabad: The charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is among the key factors most likely to influence voters in the ensuing Lok Sabha elections in Gujarat, according to political observers.

Lok Sabha polls in Gujarat will be held in a single phase on May 7. Counting of votes will be held on June 4. Anti-incumbency, unemployment, inflation, education and healthcare facilities are some of the other important issues in the election, where the ruling BJP in Gujarat will attempt to retain all the 26 Lok Sabha seats it won in 2019.

Gujarat is among the states which will play a crucial role in deciding the outcome of the elections to the Lower House of Parliament. In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party won all the 26 seats in the state.


Here are some issues that will play a decisive role in the elections in Gujarat:

PM Narendra Modi’s charisma: The ruling BJP has a trump card in the form of the prime minister, who hails from Gujarat and was its chief minister from 2001 to 2014 before occupying the top post of the country. His sway over the followers in his home state is still intact.

Anti-incumbency:
Observers feel that the opposition will try to take advantage of any anti-incumbency sentiment during the last 10 years of BJP rule at the Centre. They feel that “floating voters” who do not vote on the basis of ideology can be swayed by the opposition if they offer proper alternatives.

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Inflation:
Low and middle-income households are the worst-affected in terms of the effects of inflation. So this will be a decisive factor considering how the price rise has impacted the lives of people in the last 10 years. The opposition has been constantly targeting the Modi government over this issue.

Unemployment:
This is another point that the opposition parties have been using to hit out at the Centre. Since this issue directly affects the lives of common people, this will be high on the mind of voters when they exercise their franchise. Lack of basic education and health facilities in remote areas: If school classrooms are constructed in remote rural areas, there is a dearth of teachers. The lack of primary health centres and doctors also adversely affects health services in rural pockets. Farmers’ issues: Issues like lack of adequate compensation for crop loss due to excess rains, non-availability of fertilisers and land acquisition for project development will also play a major role in affecting voter sentiment, the observers said.

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Wall St ends sharply higher, lifted by Microsoft gains

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Wall St ends sharply higher, lifted by Microsoft gains

Wall Street has ended sharply higher, with chip stocks jumping and Microsoft logging its biggest ‌daily percentage gain in 18 years after the technology giant gave a stellar forecast that eased fears about massive spending on AI infrastructure.

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NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript