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Pankaj Tibrewal sees stronger top-line growth driving India’s next earnings cycle

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Pankaj Tibrewal sees stronger top-line growth driving India's next earnings cycle
With geopolitical tensions easing and crude oil prices retreating to pre-war levels, investors are shifting their attention to the upcoming earnings season for the next market trigger. The June quarter results are expected to provide clarity on whether Indian companies can navigate input cost pressures while sustaining growth.

Speaking to ET Now, Pankaj Tibrewal from IKIGAI Asset said the investment environment has steadily improved over the past few months as several earlier headwinds have started turning into positives.

“We have been constructive since March. Crude prices have returned to pre-war levels, and the AI-led markets have seen a significant shakeout. The next big trigger for markets will be the first-quarter earnings,” he said.

Revenue Growth May Beat Expectations

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While the Street remains cautious about margins because of elevated raw material costs, Tibrewal believes analysts are underestimating the potential for stronger revenue growth across Corporate India.

“The biggest disconnect is top-line growth. Many companies have already taken price hikes, and revenues could surprise positively, even if margins remain under pressure,” he said.
He expects operating leverage to cushion part of the margin impact and support earnings in several sectors.
Home Improvement Sector in Focus
Tibrewal identified the home improvement segment as one of the strongest opportunities, citing favourable industry dynamics in tiles and wood panels.

“Branded tile players are gaining market share as Morbi manufacturers struggle with higher gas costs. Dealer feedback points to a significant pickup in volumes,” he said.

He also expects strong performance from wood panel companies and sectors benefiting from import substitution.

“Chinese imports have reduced sharply in segments like MDF, while chemicals, textiles, engineering and auto ancillaries are also seeing improving momentum,” he said.

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A Stock Picker’s Market
Rather than expecting gains across the board, Tibrewal believes investors should focus on businesses with strong earnings visibility. “This is a stock picker’s market. The opportunity lies in identifying sectors and companies where growth is clearly visible,” he said.

Nifty Earnings Growth Seen at 10–13%
Despite near-term cost pressures, Tibrewal expects double-digit earnings growth for the benchmark index this year, supported by banks and cyclical sectors.

“I do not think 10% to 13% Nifty earnings growth will be a challenge. Banking, metals and cement should all contribute meaningfully,” he said.

He also expects nominal GDP growth to drive stronger corporate revenues.

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“Corporate India’s top-line growth should improve as nominal GDP remains healthy, and operating leverage will support earnings,” he said.

Demand Remains Healthy
According to Tibrewal, companies are no longer worried about weak demand despite higher prices. “Companies are not talking about demand destruction. The key challenges are supply chains and raw material costs, while demand remains reasonably good,” he said.

He remains particularly optimistic about the broader market.

“Many companies can compound earnings at 20% to 25% annually. That is where the best bottom-up opportunities lie,” he said.

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Private Banks Offer a Contrarian Bet
Although foreign investor selling has weighed on banking stocks, Tibrewal believes the sector’s fundamentals remain among the strongest in years.

“Private banks are very attractively valued. The challenge is technical because FIIs have been persistent sellers,” he said.

He expects sentiment to improve once foreign selling subsides.

“Bank balance sheets are in the best shape they have been in for years. Once FII selling stops, banking stocks could quickly return to favour,” he said.

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FII Flows Could Return
Tibrewal believes India could benefit if global investors rotate away from overheated AI-driven markets.

“I am hopeful FIIs will return in the second half of the fiscal year. India looks attractive in dollar terms, while the AI trade globally appears to be entering a mature stage,” he said.

With earnings season approaching, investors will closely watch whether stronger revenue growth and resilient demand can offset cost pressures and provide the next leg of the market’s rally.

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UK economy grew by 0.6% in first quarter as 2025 growth revised down

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Business Live

Final figure for growth last year was revised down slightly to 1.3 per cent

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivers her spring statement to MPs in the House of Commons

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivering her spring statement to MPs in the House of Commons(Image: House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA)

The UK economy expanded by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics has confirmed, though the final growth figure for last year was nudged slightly downwards.

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The ONS announced on Tuesday that the UK economy grew at a faster rate than many had anticipated at the start of the year, with GDP climbing by 0.6 per cent.

Real GDP per head rose by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of the year.

Businesses rushed to build up stockpiles while activity surged rapidly as tensions in Venezuela and the Middle East intensified, according to official figures.

The data may prove bittersweet for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is expected to be removed from her post as Andy Burnham takes over at Number 10 in mid-July, despite having presided over a period of economic expansion, as reported by City AM.

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The UK economy contracted by 0.1 per cent in April, the second month of the Iran war, the ONS confirmed earlier this month.

The ONS also revised growth for 2025 marginally downwards to 1.3 per cent, rather than the previously reported 1.4 per cent.

Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: “Services were the main driver of growth in the latest quarter, with strengths in computer programming, wholesale and advertising only offset by falls in rental companies and recruitment agencies.”

While the ONS recorded overall growth of 0.6 per cent, business investment reached approximately 0.9 per cent in the first quarter of the year, coming in slightly ahead of expectations. The current account for trade also deteriorated further, with the balance falling to –£22.2bn.

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City economists have cautioned that international trade disruption stemming from the Iran war could knock up to around 0.3 percentage points off UK economic growth, while inflation could remain above three per cent for the remainder of the year.

This leaves an incoming Prime Minister Burnham facing a challenging in-tray, despite a broad promise to oversee the biggest transformation of British politics in a lifetime.

Speaking on Monday, Burnham outlined plans to raise living standards through a 10-year programme centred on devolution, “greater” public control of utilities and “social value” reforms to areas such as public procurement.

The former Greater Manchester mayor pledged to deliver “good growth” that would be felt across all regions of the country. He indicated he would overhaul business rates to bolster high streets and pubs, while also seeking to “reindustralise” communities that have witnessed factory closures.

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Industry bodies broadly welcomed Burnham’s push for stronger growth and closer collaboration with the private sector, with TheCityUK’s Miles Celic describing devolution as “vital” for businesses.

However, some analysts cautioned that the landmark speech fell short of offering concrete policy detail. Mark Smith, a managing director at professional services firm Ayming UK, raised concerns over corporation taxes and the government’s industrial strategy.

Smith said: “If Andy Burnham does become Prime Minister, he needs to set out a clear plan for business early on and, importantly, stick to it. Since Labour came to power, we’ve seen too many U-turns and too much speculation around key policy areas. That makes it incredibly difficult for businesses to plan ahead and commit to long-term investment.”

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Tricky Triple-Letter Word Stumps Players Solving Puzzle Number 1,837

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Air travellers wearing a protective face masks, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, at JFK International airport in New York

Wordle players faced one of the tougher challenges of the month Tuesday, with puzzle number 1,837 featuring a word containing three repeated letters, the second time in a matter of days that the daily New York Times puzzle has thrown a triple-letter curveball at solvers.

The answer to Tuesday’s Wordle is PUPPY, a five-letter noun referring to a young dog. The word contains just one vowel alongside four consonants, with the letter “P” appearing three separate times, a pattern that made the puzzle considerably harder than average to crack using typical opening strategies. According to the New York Times’ own WordleBot tool, which analyzes daily player performance, the average solver needed 4.2 guesses to land on the correct answer when playing in easy mode, and 4.1 guesses under the game’s harder rule set, putting Tuesday’s puzzle solidly in more difficult territory compared with a typical day.

Part of what made the word so tricky is that it avoids nearly all of the most commonly used letters in the English language, the building blocks most players rely on during their opening guesses. Popular starting words such as ORATE, frequently used by solvers because it efficiently tests several high-frequency letters at once, performed especially poorly against Tuesday’s answer, leaving an unusually large pool of more than 250 possible remaining words after a single guess, according to WordleBot’s analysis. Other commonly recommended opening words fared only modestly better; CLIPS narrowed the field to roughly 34 possible answers, while TARPS brought that number down further to about 28, both still leaving solvers with considerably more uncertainty than a typical day’s puzzle.

The puzzle’s repeated-letter structure added another layer of difficulty. Wordle answers occasionally reuse the same letter more than once, a pattern seen in past answers such as SHEEP and BLOOM, and puzzle guides have repeatedly reminded players not to rule out a letter too quickly after a single attempt, since the word may still contain that letter in a different position. Tuesday’s puzzle pushed that principle further than usual by repeating the same letter three separate times, a configuration that has appeared only rarely in the puzzle’s history.

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Notably, Tuesday’s word arrived just two days after another triple-letter answer, EMCEE, appeared in the puzzle over the weekend, marking the second time in a short span that players encountered this unusual letter pattern. That back-to-back occurrence surprised even some of the puzzle’s most regular players and longtime trackers, who noted they hadn’t expected to see another triple-letter word so soon after the previous one.

Tuesday’s puzzle was edited by Tracy Bennett, who has overseen Wordle’s daily puzzle selection for the New York Times since the publication acquired the game. Wordle was originally created by software engineer Josh Wardle in 2021 as a project for his partner, before it surged in popularity at the end of that year and went viral globally in January 2022. The New York Times subsequently purchased the game for a seven-figure sum the following month, folding it into its broader suite of daily puzzle offerings, which now includes Connections, Strands, the Mini Crossword and several other games. Both the Times and Wardle have stated publicly that Wordle will remain free to play, distinguishing it from the subscription-based access required for some of the publication’s other puzzle offerings.

The core mechanics of Wordle have remained unchanged since its original release: players are given six attempts to guess a hidden five-letter English word, with the game providing color-coded feedback after each guess. A green tile indicates a letter is correct and in the right position, a yellow tile signals a letter is part of the word but placed incorrectly, and a gray tile shows a letter does not appear in the word at all. A new puzzle is released once per day at midnight in each player’s local time zone, and unlike many other daily digital games, the entire global player base receives the exact same word each day, a structural choice that has helped fuel much of the social-sharing culture surrounding the game, including the now-familiar grid of colored squares many players post to social media after completing each day’s puzzle.

For players who came up short on Tuesday’s puzzle, strategy guides accompanying the day’s answer suggested that solvers down to their final two guesses should generally avoid speculative or unlikely word choices and instead favor options that satisfy every clue already revealed by the board, reserving riskier or more exploratory guesses for the earlier rounds of a puzzle when more information remains unknown.

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Beyond the daily Wordle puzzle itself, the New York Times Games section has continued to expand its broader portfolio of word and logic puzzles, publishing daily hints and solutions across titles including Strands, Connections and its various spinoff formats, reflecting the franchise’s continued growth as one of the more dominant fixtures in the casual daily puzzle gaming space since its rapid rise to prominence in 2022.

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Sheriff Calls Latest Nancy Guthrie Ransom Letter Fake as Savannah Guthrie Pleads for Help Finding Her Mother

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Nancy Guthrie

TUCSON, Ariz. — Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos dismissed the most recent alleged ransom communication in the Nancy Guthrie case as fraudulent, even as new details continue to surface in the nearly five-month search for the missing 84-year-old mother of “Today” co-anchor Savannah Guthrie.

After TMZ reported receiving an email from someone claiming to know the identities of those responsible for Guthrie’s disappearance, Nanos addressed the letter’s credibility during a June 26 appearance on Tucson radio station 1030 KVOI AM’s “The Buckmaster Show.”

“I think the FBI has done a number of arrests for false or fake ransom notes,” Nanos told host Bill Buckmaster.

Nanos said he believed investigators were likely looking at another fraudulent submission, though he noted the FBI would continue its own review of the claim. The sheriff, whose department has worked alongside the FBI since Guthrie was reported missing in February, expressed frustration at how public attention surrounding the case has occasionally been exploited by people sending false information.

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“It is a shame that these types of events occur,” Nanos said. “People have great interest and that’s good because it helps us but then it gets really abused.”

The Pima County Sheriff’s Department declined to comment further on the latest letter, citing the active nature of the investigation, and the FBI similarly declined to comment. The newest email arrives just days after NBC News reported that a second, separate note sent earlier to media outlets indicated Guthrie had died. According to three people familiar with the matter who spoke to NBC News, that second letter, unlike an earlier one that requested cryptocurrency in exchange for her safe return, contained no apology and made no financial demand. Both of those earlier letters were sent to Jessica Bobula, news director for NBC News’ Arizona affiliate KOLD, and were reviewed by investigators, who considered them potentially credible.

Savannah Guthrie addressed the unfolding situation during the June 23 broadcast of “Today,” choosing her words carefully given her position as both a journalist and a family member directly affected by the case.

“I don’t have any comment on this story and I’m not involved in our coverage—but I can’t pretend I’m not here,” Guthrie said. She went on to describe the toll the disappearance has taken on her family. “This is the life that my sister lives, I live, that my brother lives, that our extended family lives, that our children live every day and we are in agony,” she said.

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The case began the night of Jan. 31, when Nancy Guthrie was last seen by family at her Tucson home around 9:30 p.m. She was reported missing the next day after failing to attend a scheduled church service, prompting her children to search the property before calling authorities around noon. Sheriff Nanos arrived personally at the scene, an unusual step he later explained was driven by what investigators found at the house.

“You don’t typically get the sheriff out at a scene like this, but it’s very concerning what we’re learning from the house,” Nanos told reporters at a Feb. 2 press conference.

Authorities soon confirmed they believed a crime had occurred inside the home, citing Guthrie’s limited mobility as evidence she did not leave voluntarily. Officials have also stressed that despite her physical limitations, Guthrie remains mentally sharp, ruling out any concern that she may have simply wandered off due to confusion or memory loss. Investigators have repeatedly emphasized the urgency of locating her given her dependence on daily medication, warning that going without it for even 24 hours could prove fatal.

A timeline released by Nanos in early February detailed a sequence of disconnections and irregularities the night Guthrie disappeared: her doorbell camera went offline at 1:47 a.m., her pacemaker app showed a disconnection from her phone at 2:28 a.m., and family members did not discover she was missing until nearly 12 hours later, prompting a 911 call shortly after noon. Investigators later released surveillance images recovered from corrupted camera data showing a masked, armed individual approaching Guthrie’s home and appearing to strike the doorbell camera with a fist. The FBI’s Phoenix office subsequently described the suspect as a man standing roughly 5-foot-9 to 5-foot-10 with an average build, wearing a black 25-liter backpack, and increased its reward for information leading to Guthrie’s location or the arrest of those responsible from $50,000 to $100,000.

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Investigators have since cleared all of Guthrie’s children and their spouses as possible suspects, describing the family as fully cooperative throughout the case. Several pieces of evidence that initially drew public speculation, including a pair of gloves found roughly two miles from the home and a human bone discovered about seven miles away in May, were ultimately ruled unrelated to the investigation, with the gloves traced to a nearby restaurant worker and the bone determined to be part of an unrelated prehistoric anthropological find.

Throughout the ordeal, Guthrie’s “Today” colleagues have publicly rallied around her, with co-anchors including Jenna Bush Hager, Sheinelle Jones, Hoda Kotb and Willie Geist offering messages of support and urging viewers to come forward with any information. Savannah, Camron and Annie Guthrie have also released several emotional video appeals directly addressed to their mother’s possible captors, pleading for proof of life and a path toward her safe return.

As the case nears the five-month mark without a confirmed suspect or resolution, authorities continue to caution the public against drawing conclusions from any of the various unverified letters and claims that have surfaced. For Savannah Guthrie, the message has remained consistent even as the investigation grinds on without answers.

“We’re begging for your help,” she said during her June 23 appeal. “We love our mom and we’ll never stop looking for her, ever.”

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Apple Says It’s ‘Concerned’ as Massive Tata Electronics Data Breach Exposes Secret iPhone 18 Pro Details

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iPhone 18 Pro

NEW DELHI — Sensitive lists of components and suppliers, along with photographs of Apple’s unreleased iPhone 18 Pro models, have surfaced on the dark web as part of a sprawling data breach at Tata Electronics, one of Apple’s most important manufacturing partners in India, according to documents reviewed by Reuters and a person familiar with the matter.

The exposure threatens the carefully negotiated business relationships underpinning iPhone production, which Apple assembles from a vast network of suppliers around the world. The breach could also strain Apple’s relationship with Tata, given that most of the company’s supplier arrangements are fiercely protected trade secrets, and the leak could hand rivals, counterfeiters and even Apple’s own vendors an unprecedented look at exactly who manufactures what for the world’s most valuable consumer electronics company.

Reuters reviewed newly disclosed documents showing at least six files that map numerous iPhone 18 Pro components to the specific companies that supply them, including detailed information about chips on the device’s main circuit board, along with battery and camera components. According to a person familiar with the matter, Apple considers this kind of supplier-mapping information especially sensitive and is particularly troubled that the documents being shared on the dark web relate to models that have not yet been released. The data links specific suppliers to specific iPhone parts, information Apple deliberately does not disclose in its public supplier database, the person added.

Several of the leaked files carried Apple “confidential” watermarks and internal Apple code names consistent with the iPhone 18 Pro generation, according to the source. Among the leaked materials were photographs, dated early 2026, showing iPhones undergoing drop tests at a Tata manufacturing plant. The images depict what Reuters described as a conventional, slab-shaped, grey handset featuring a three-camera rear setup and the Apple logo. While Reuters said it could not independently confirm the exact model number shown in the photos, the source identified the devices in the images as iPhone 18 Pro units. Rumors circulating ahead of the device’s expected September unveiling suggest the iPhone 18 Pro will closely resemble last year’s iPhone 17 Pro, with design changes largely limited to a smaller Dynamic Island cutout.

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The breach originated with a ransomware group calling itself World Leaks, which claimed responsibility for stealing more than 200,000 files from Tata Electronics and posting them on a dark web leak site beginning around June 10, alongside a downloadable link to a collection reported to total more than 630 gigabytes of data. Beyond the iPhone 18 Pro materials, the stolen trove reportedly included component design documents for older iPhone models, files related to Tesla components, given that Tesla is also a Tata client, and documents tied to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Qualcomm, both of which manufacture parts used in iPhones. News outlet AppleInsider first reported last week that iPhone 18 Pro-related documents were part of the broader Tata leak.

Tata Electronics publicly confirmed the cybersecurity incident last week, acknowledging it had detected the breach once it became apparent that World Leaks had published the stolen files. In response, the company has restricted internal access to sensitive systems and hired a global cybersecurity consultant to conduct a forensic audit of the incident. Spokespeople for both Apple and Tata did not respond to requests for comment from Reuters. World Leaks has also previously claimed responsibility for a separate breach involving Nike, and Reuters said it has not independently verified the authenticity of all the leaked data and was unable to immediately reach the World Leaks group for comment.

The timing and scale of the breach carry particular significance given Tata’s growing centrality to Apple’s manufacturing strategy. The company, which both supplies individual iPhone components and assembles complete devices as a contract manufacturer, has emerged as one of Apple’s most important manufacturing partners outside China, a shift that aligns closely with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s broader push to position the country as a global electronics manufacturing hub. That strategic bet appears to be paying off in measurable terms: according to research firm Counterpoint, India is on track to produce roughly 26% of the world’s iPhones in 2026, a dramatic increase from just 6% four years ago.

For both Apple and Tata, the breach strikes at the trust that underlies their expanding partnership at a particularly sensitive moment, as Apple continues to diversify its manufacturing footprint away from China and lean more heavily on Indian assembly and supply capacity. Reuters reported that Apple is actively investigating the incident and working with Tata on longer-term security measures intended to prevent similar breaches going forward, though the news agency noted the episode could nonetheless unsettle Apple’s confidence in the relationship.

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The exposed documents also reportedly reveal more granular details about Apple’s broader sourcing strategy, including specific instances in which the company relies on multiple suppliers for a single component versus cases where it depends on just one or two vendors for a particular part. That kind of information is considered highly valuable competitively, since it effectively reveals where Apple’s negotiating leverage with suppliers is strongest and where the company may be more vulnerable to supply disruptions or price pressure from a limited pool of vendors.

With the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max still on track for their expected unveiling in September, the leak adds an unusual layer of public scrutiny to a product cycle Apple typically manages with extraordinary secrecy. Apple has not commented publicly on the specific contents of the leaked files or on whether the exposure will affect the company’s design, supplier negotiations or launch timeline for the upcoming devices, leaving open questions about how significantly this breach might shape the company’s relationship with one of its fastest-growing manufacturing partners heading into one of its most closely watched product launches of the year.

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Motilal Oswal’s top 4 banking picks ahead of Q1 earnings season. Do you own any? – Top bets

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Motilal Oswal's top 4 banking picks ahead of Q1 earnings season. Do you own any? - Top bets

State Bank of India (SBI) was Motilal’s preferred PSU pick for its all-round execution and healthy growth trajectory. It is also its top pick in the housing loans segment. “Among the PSBs, SBI remains the most aggressive, offering competitive pricing, improved TAT, and lending under the CGTMSE scheme. Lending based on the CGTMSE scheme involves continuous monitoring of stock reports, cash flows, and debtor lists, reflecting strong underwriting practices,” Motilal Oswal Financial Services said. It has a ‘Buy’ call on the shares of SBI, with a target price of Rs 1,300 apiece.

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Cobram Estate Olives Shares Surge 8% Today as Australia’s Top Olive Oil Maker Rides Global Supply Crunch

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Shares of Cobram Estate Olives jumped Monday, climbing 33 cents, or 8.11%, to $4.40, pushing Australia’s largest extra virgin olive oil producer toward the upper end of its 52-week trading range as investors continued to bet on the company’s ability to capitalize on tight global supply and rising health-conscious demand for premium olive oil.

The gain extends a strong run for the stock over the past several months. Shares have climbed sharply from their 52-week low of $1.82, with the stock recently breaking above the $4 mark for the first time in some time after trading in a range closer to $3.60 to $3.95 for much of June. The rally has been significant enough to push Cobram Estate’s market capitalization to roughly $1.8 billion, with the stock now trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio well above the average for Australia’s broader food industry, a premium analysts have generally attributed to the company’s structural growth story rather than near-term earnings alone.

Cobram Estate, formerly known as Boundary Bend Limited, owns Australia’s two top-selling homegrown extra virgin olive oil brands, Cobram Estate and Red Island, which together account for roughly half of all olive oil sold by value in Australian supermarkets. Founded in 1998 by Paul Riordan and Rob McGavin, the company has built what it describes as the largest vertically integrated olive oil operation of its kind, owning everything from olive groves and nurseries to mills, bottling facilities and a dedicated olive science laboratory. The company exports to 18 countries and has expanded its footprint significantly in the United States in recent years.

Much of the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock has centered on Cobram Estate’s positioning to benefit from ongoing supply disruptions in Europe, historically the dominant source of global olive oil production. Years of drought and extreme heat across major Mediterranean growing regions, particularly in Spain and Italy, have repeatedly squeezed European harvests, pushing global olive oil prices to elevated levels and creating an opening for diversified, geographically spread producers like Cobram Estate to capture market share, particularly in the lucrative U.S. retail and food-service channels. Analysts have pointed to the company’s year-round, multi-continent production base, spanning groves in Victoria, Australia, and California, as a structural advantage that allows it to smooth out the kind of single-region harvest volatility that has periodically hit European competitors.

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That U.S. expansion strategy took a major step forward late last year when Cobram Estate entered into a binding agreement to acquire California Olive Ranch for approximately $170 million, a deal structured with $88.5 million in cash, $70 million in vendor notes and a $15 million earn-out payment. The acquisition cleared U.S. antitrust review in March and was expected to complete by the end of that month, giving Cobram Estate a substantially larger footprint in the American premium olive oil market. Management has projected the deal would be roughly 9% accretive to earnings per share starting in fiscal 2027, the first full year following integration of the two businesses.

The company’s broader financial trajectory reflects that growth ambition. Cobram Estate derives the majority of its revenue from Australian operations, with the country contributing roughly $177.6 million in revenue against $60.8 million from its U.S. business in recent reporting, though that balance is expected to shift further toward the U.S. as the California Olive Ranch integration progresses. Consensus forecasts have pointed to annual revenue growth approaching 36%, well ahead of the broader Australian market, alongside projected earnings growth in the mid-20% range annually, underpinning much of the optimism reflected in the stock’s recent climb.

Cobram Estate has continued to invest in its leadership team to support that expansion. The company recently appointed Toni Brendish, a veteran of blue-chip consumer goods companies including Kimberly-Clark and Colgate-Palmolive and former chief executive of Westland Milk Products in New Zealand, as a non-executive director, bringing decades of fast-moving consumer goods and agricultural sector experience to the board. The company also added Daniel Masters as a non-executive director, whose involvement helped structure the California Olive Ranch acquisition, including securing US$25 million in debt funding from AGR Partners to support the transaction.

Not every signal surrounding the stock has been uniformly positive. Some technical and valuation-focused analysts have flagged that the stock’s rapid appreciation has pushed it toward, or in some assessments beyond, estimates of its underlying fair value, with at least one widely cited model placing fair value modestly below recent trading levels, suggesting the market may currently be pricing in a more optimistic scenario than some conservative earnings forecasts would support. Other analysts have offered more cautious longer-term revenue and earnings projections, citing the risk that climate-driven cost pressures and the capital intensity of an aggressive U.S. expansion could squeeze margins even as top-line growth remains strong. The central swing factors most commonly cited by analysts tracking the stock include actual harvest outcomes across both Cobram Estate’s Australian and Californian growing regions in any given year, along with the risk that today’s elevated global olive oil prices and tight European supply could ease more quickly than currently anticipated, potentially narrowing the pricing advantage that has supported the company’s recent earnings momentum.

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Cobram Estate has historically paid a single, partially franked annual dividend to shareholders, typically distributed in December, and offers a dividend reinvestment plan allowing investors to direct some or all of that payout toward purchasing additional shares rather than receiving cash. The company’s most recent annual dividend came in 36% higher than the prior year’s payout, reflecting the broader improvement in earnings that has accompanied its expanding operations.

Looking ahead, Cobram Estate is scheduled to report its full fiscal year 2026 results on Aug. 28, a release that will give investors a clearer picture of how effectively the company has converted its investments in U.S. production capacity, brand recognition and distribution into actual shelf space, sales volumes and sustained pricing power, particularly as the integration of California Olive Ranch progresses and global supply conditions in the broader olive oil market continue to evolve.

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Aussie shares fall as gold drops to eight-month low

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Aussie shares fall as gold drops to eight-month low

The local share market has ended the financial year with a whimper, ending on the lows of the day amid sharp losses for goldminers.

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Vedanta Iron & Steel shares extend winning streak, surge 10%; stock up 70% since listing

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Vedanta Iron & Steel shares extend winning streak, surge 10%; stock up 70% since listing
Shares of Vedanta Iron & Steel surged 10% to Rs 35.65 during Tuesday’s trading session, extending their winning streak to 11 consecutive sessions. The stock has now gained over 70% since its market debut earlier this month.

The company was listed on the NSE and BSE on June 15, 2026, following the Vedanta Group’s demerger. It debuted at Rs 20 per share on the NSE, giving it a market capitalisation of around Rs 7,821 crore. After the sustained rally, the company’s market value has nearly doubled to approximately Rs 13,941 crore.

Investor sentiment received an early boost after Azim Premji-backed Premji Invest’s PI Opportunities AIF V LLP acquired shares worth Rs 102 crore soon after the company’s market debut, signalling strong institutional confidence in the newly listed entity.

Vedanta Iron & Steel has outlined an ambitious growth strategy aimed at becoming a resource-backed integrated steel platform, leveraging its long-life iron ore reserves and operational integration. The company plans to expand capacity across key product segments, including ferro-silicon, ductile iron pipes, wire rods, and rebars.

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Backed by nearly 4 billion tonnes of iron ore reserves and resources, which provide over 50 years of raw material security, the company is building an integrated business model designed to create long-term value across the iron ore and steel value chain.


The company operates across India and Africa, with businesses spanning iron ore exploration, mining, and processing. Its product portfolio includes steel, wire rods, TMT bars, pig iron, ductile iron (DI) pipes, ferro-silicon, cement, and metallurgical coke.
The sharp rally in Vedanta Iron & Steel shares appears to be driven by a combination of strong institutional buying and positive investor sentiment surrounding the Vedanta Group’s demerger. Market participants are increasingly betting on the value-unlocking potential of the standalone steel business, with sustained buying interest keeping the stock firmly in the upper circuit.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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A Boost for British Firms

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A Boost for British Firms

UK Export Finance has fired the largest single shot in its century-long history, setting aside a fresh £50 billion to bankroll British defence exports at a moment when the world is rearming faster than at any time since the Cold War.

The new Defence Export Fund takes the government’s export credit agency from an £80 billion ceiling to a total capacity of £130 billion, with the additional £50 billion ring-fenced to support large-scale defence sales and shore up Britain’s competitiveness in a market that is expanding at remarkable speed. For an agency that has spent 100 years quietly underwriting the deals that keep British goods moving across borders, it is a statement of intent.

The timing is no accident. Global military expenditure climbed to a record $2.7 trillion in 2024, a 9.4 per cent year-on-year jump that, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, was the steepest rise since at least the end of the Cold War. Spending rose across all five of the world’s regions, driven by the war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East and a broad reappraisal of national security among Western governments. Allies are not only spending more, they are actively shopping for the kind of advanced capability that British industry is well placed to supply.

The mechanics are straightforward enough. UKEF will guarantee the bank loans taken out by British defence exporters as they fulfil contracts, and it will provide or back the financing extended to other countries buying British defence products. In practice that means a UK manufacturer can compete for a major overseas order knowing the financing is underwritten by the government, while the purchasing nation gets access to a competitive, state-backed payment package alongside the kit itself.

That combination, world-leading hardware paired with government-backed finance, is what ministers hope will tip large contracts in Britain’s favour. The fund is open to defence businesses of every size, from established prime contractors to the smaller firms looking to break into international markets for the first time, a constituency that has historically found export finance hard to navigate.

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It is a theme UKEF has been building towards for some time. The agency has already widened its toolkit for smaller exporters, unveiling new products designed to help SMEs trade globally and to remove some of the friction that has long deterred first-time exporters from chasing overseas work.

The Defence Export Fund does not arrive out of nowhere. UKEF has been steadily deepening its defence portfolio, backing landmark deals that include air defence systems for Poland and Ukraine and submarine rescue vehicles for Indonesia, transactions that translate into skilled jobs and economic value spread across the UK rather than concentrated in a single region.

The numbers have grown accordingly. Defence transactions worth more than £5 billion are now routine for the agency, and it supported a total of £10 billion of defence business in the 2024/25 financial year alone. With that trajectory showing no sign of flattening, the new allocation is designed to let UKEF meet rising demand without running up against its own limits.

That ambition sits within a wider government push to treat defence not merely as a security obligation but as an engine of industrial growth. Westminster has moved to boost domestic weapons production and cut reliance on imports, while a separate drive aims to give smaller defence firms easier access to Ministry of Defence contracts. The export fund is the international-facing piece of that same strategy.

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‘Allies are actively seeking what Britain can build’

Tim Reid, chief executive of UKEF, framed the move as a response to genuine demand from partner nations. “Security is a strategic priority for governments worldwide, and the UK’s defence sector offers pioneering capabilities that allies are actively seeking,” he said. “With billions of pounds available in new export financing, we are strengthening the sector’s global competitiveness while backing skilled British jobs and supporting long-term economic growth.”

The agency, which sets out its broader approach in its strategic financing for industrial growth, has set itself a clear target. By 2029 it aims to help UK firms win more than £12.5 billion of new export contracts through its finance offer, with defence expected to account for a growing slice of that total.

For Britain’s defence businesses, large and small, the message is that the financing constraint which once kept them on the sidelines of the biggest deals has been substantially loosened. Whether that translates into the contract wins ministers are banking on will depend, as ever, on the firms themselves. But the cheque book has rarely been bigger.


Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.

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