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August CPI could decide the Fed’s September rate move. (0:17) Oracle earnings all about AI spending. (1:34) Apple’s new CEO to unveil its biggest iPhone shakeup in years. (2:23)

The following is an abridged transcript:

This holiday shortened-week brings make-of-break consumer price numbers for this months’ Fed rate meeting.

With the market closed Monday for Labor Day, the August CPI arrives Friday.

Economists expect a 0.4% rise in the headline number, keeping the annual rate at 3.4%. The core rate, ex food and energy, is seen rising 0.2%, dipping to 2.4% annually from 2.5%.

Wells Fargo economists say that while headline inflation remains “influenced by the ebbs and flows of the conflict in the Middle East, core inflation remains contained.”

A hot inflation report could cement an FOMC rate hike later this month. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech spiked odds of a quarter-point rise, but President Donald Trump’s threat to cease trade with a number of nations if rates didn’t come down made it a coin toss. Friday’s better-than-expected rise in payrolls puts hike odds now at 60%.

SA analyst Damir Tokic says the Fed is facing late-cycle dynamics with a strong labor market and high inflation and should “consider inverting the yield curve, or hiking above 5%, starting with a September hike.”

“Otherwise, long-term rates (US10Y) should spike as inflation expectations de-anchor, which would force the Fed to hike even more aggressively due to the 2022-like policy error,” he said.

On the earnings front, Oracle (ORCL) will give the market another glimpse of hyperscaler revenue versus capex when it reports Thursday.

The consensus is for EPS of $1.74 on revenue of $19.13B.

SA analyst JD Research says despite infrastructure buildout risks, Oracle’s software business and multi-cloud AI database are delivering strong growth and mitigating AI execution concerns.

But ORCL bear Paul Franke says escalating AI LLM fees on consumers and businesses are prompting users to cut back on queries, “raising doubts about the sustainability of ORCL’s hyperscaler strategy.”

Here’s how the rest of the earnings calendar shapes up:

GameStop (GME) reports Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Chewy (CHWY) weighs in.

Macy’s (M) and Adobe (ADBE) join Oracle on Thursday.

And Kroger (KR) is due Friday.

Also this week, Apple’s (AAPL) Wednesday product launch event, “Surprise and Shine,” may be its most significant in nearly a decade.

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring says that along with predictable product launches, “the event will prove to be anything but ordinary.”

“This is because for the first time in 15 years, Tim Cook will not headline the event; instead, new CEO John Ternus will lead the company into its first major iPhone form factor change in nearly 10 years, unveiling the much-anticipated iPhone Fold (Ultra?), alongside what are likely to be the broadest and most significant, like-for-like iPhone price hikes in company history.”

In the news this weekend, should a greenback equal a loonie?

President Donald Trump criticized the value of Canada’s currency, opening a new front in an escalating trade dispute between the two neighboring countries.

“Canada’s Dollar imbalance with the U.S. is unacceptable,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “It has been that way for years — but no longer!”

Trump did not specify what he meant by an imbalance or any action his administration might take. The Canadian dollar gives the country’s exporters a pricing advantage in the U.S. market and recently traded around 72 U.S. cents.

And for income investors, Cigna (CI) goes ex-dividend Tuesday, paying out Sept. 23.

HP (HPQ) goes ex-dividend Wednesday, with a Sept. 9 payout date.

Nvidia (NVDA) goes ex-dividend Thursday, paying out on Oct. 1.

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The death toll stood at 1,344, while nearly 5,000 people, including 589 foreign nationals, remained missing, according to Nepal Police. Around 13,400 people have been rescued so far.

The disaster was triggered by an ice-rock avalanche near the Nepal-Tibet border on August 26, sending a massive surge of water and debris downstream through the Bhotekoshi River and devastating settlements in northern and central Nepal. Homes, vehicles, roads, bridges and hydropower infrastructure were swept away or damaged.

At least 43 people were killed on the Chinese side, while more than 500 people remained missing in Tibet, according to Chinese media reports.

Of the bodies recovered in Nepal, at least 85 were children, while around 500 were recovered with body parts missing, according to officials. The condition of many bodies has complicated efforts to establish their identities.

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Chitwan district accounted for the largest number of recovered bodies, with 362, followed by other affected districts including Nawalparasi East, Nawalparasi West, Nuwakot, Rasuwa, Gorkha, Dhading and Tanahun, according to Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).
Only 98 bodies had been identified and handed over to their families, according to NDRRMA.Identifying the dead has emerged as a major challenge, with many bodies recovered after being swept downstream severely damaged, decomposed or recovered only in parts. The police have said that bodies carried far from the disaster sites and those that remained in water and mud have made identification particularly difficult.

Nepal Police has begun collecting DNA samples from relatives of missing people to help identify unclaimed bodies and human remains recovered after the floods. Relatives in Nepal can provide samples through the Nepal Police Hospital in Kathmandu or their nearest district police office.

More than 1,000 unidentified bodies have been buried after DNA samples were collected to facilitate their identification in the future, officials said.

Hospitals struggled to cope with the growing number of unidentified bodies. Large crowds continued to gather at medical facilities, carrying photographs of missing relatives and scrutinising images of the dead displayed on the walls.

Nepal’s Information and Communication Minister Bikram Timilsina has said the government would ensure that there was no shortage of relief materials or mismanagement in their distribution to flood victims. The government was actively involved in relief and rehabilitation efforts despite the scale of the disaster, Timilsina told the online edition of the government-owned Gorkhapatra.

“Nepal demands climate justice at this moment and the international community should be serious about this,” Timilsina said, adding that the disaster underscored the need for greater preparedness for future climate-related disasters.

Nearly 88,000 cooking gas cylinders have been brought into Kathmandu Valley through alternative routes over the past three days as authorities work to maintain supplies after the disruption of the Prithvi Highway – the primary vital link connecting the Kathmandu Valley to the rest of Nepal and to India.

According to Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC), 87,877 LPG cylinders were brought into the Valley between September 3 and September 6 by 18 companies.

The cylinders were filled at plants in Bara, Parsa, Makawanpur, Chitwan, Nawalparasi, Dhanusha and Mahottari districts before being transported to Kathmandu.

NOC spokesperson Manoj Thakur said supplies of petroleum products and LPG to Kathmandu Valley and surrounding areas were continuing through alternative routes despite the disruption of the main highway.

The Prithvi Highway was disrupted at Krishnabhir in Dhading on August 30 after erosion by the Trishuli River damaged the road, leaving fuel tankers and LPG carriers unable to proceed towards Kathmandu.

Nepal’s Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal and his South Korean counterpart Cho Hyun on Sunday discussed ongoing search, rescue and relief operations. In their meeting in Kathmandu, the two leaders held in-depth discussions on efforts to locate missing South Korean nationals, Khanal’s office said.

Khanal thanked the South Korean government for sending an inter-agency rapid response team and the Korea Disaster Relief Team to flood-hit areas, as well as for providing humanitarian assistance and relief materials. He also outlined Nepal’s priority of rebuilding resilient and durable infrastructure and expressed hope for continued South Korean support.

Cho expressed the “willingness of the Korean Government to support Nepal in the post-disaster reconstruction efforts” and called for Nepal and South Korea to work together to raise awareness about the impacts of climate change, including at global forums such as COP.

Kathmandu has urged friendly countries to confine travel advisories to specific flood-affected areas, while highlighting that the rest of the country remains open and safe for travel and tourism.

The country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Sunday that it and Nepal’s missions abroad were working closely with friendly countries on the issue.

The request comes after the United States issued a travel advisory on September 4, placing entire Nepal under Level 2, or “Exercise increased caution”, due to natural disasters.

Tourism is a major contributor to Nepal’s economy, accounting for about 6.4 per cent of GDP and 15.2 per cent of total employment in 2024, according to World Bank data, making travel restrictions a significant concern for the country.

Meanwhile, a fresh flood in Gorkha district early Sunday swept away four houses and a suspension bridge, although there were no casualties.

The flood occurred in Chumnubri Rural Municipality-4 after the Namrung Khola River overflowed, according to police. The four houses were swept away after residents became aware of the approaching flood and fled to safety.

Authorities said the river may have been temporarily blocked near its source before releasing a surge carrying mud and debris downstream. The Namrung Khola flows into the Budhigandaki River, and residents along the Budhigandaki have been urged to remain alert.

The flooding damaged two small hydropower projects in the wider Namrung area, according to local reports. It also affected movement in the area after the suspension bridge was swept away. PTI