SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Every morning, when Australia’s players wake up and head down to their communal breakfast room, they pass a large picture, hung up by the stairwell to ensure they can’t miss it. The image is of Mathew Leckie, roaring in celebration after scoring the goal that saw the Socceroos beat Denmark in their final group game of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, a joyously stunned Riley McGree running along behind him, his hands on his head in amazement at what just happened.
A Deliberate Reminder Built Into the Team’s Camp
Both the image and its placement in the Socceroos camp aren’t a coincidence; one of the individual touches, alongside the Johnny Warren quote that lines their breakfast room and the Australian coat of arms emblazoned across the wall of their film room, all insisted upon by the team’s coaching staff. The move to immortalize that moment in the team’s accommodation was placed there with a distinct purpose: to show the 17 players in the squad who are playing in their first World Cup just what they can achieve, and remind the nine back once more just what they’re playing for.
A Familiar Set of Stakes, Four Years Later
Four years on from that moment, a similar set of circumstances that confronted Leckie will greet the current crop of Socceroos on Thursday evening in Santa Clara, just about an hour down the road from their accommodation in the hills of Berkeley. At the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, they’ll enter their third and final group game against Paraguay with their fate once again yet to be determined. As was the case heading into the game against the Danes, they’ll meet the Paraguayans having won one game and lost another, with their future riding on this result.
What Australia Needs to Advance
For the Socceroos, the equation is simple and, mercifully, a lot more forgiving than it was four years ago. Secure a win or a draw against Paraguay, and they will finish second in Group D and advance through to a round of 32 meeting with the second-place finisher in Group G — likely one of Belgium, Iran, or Egypt. Lose, and they’re still a decent chance of reaching the knockout stages, even if that would likely see them given the thankless task of playing Germany in Boston, with just one day to prepare after flying across the country.
A Long Shot, but Not Impossible
There’s also a chance the Socceroos could be heading home. As of Tuesday, Opta gives Australia, thanks to their 2-0 victory over Türkiye in their opening match, a 91.78% chance of reaching the knockout stages. Only an unlikely combination of results elsewhere and a thumping loss to Paraguay would be enough to knock them from the ranks of the eight best third-placed finishers that will progress through the groups alongside the 12 top-two finishers. It’s possible, certainly, and Australian football has a near-supernatural habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but still considered a long shot by the statisticians.
Questions Over the Lineup
Invariably, all eyes will be on Tony Popovic’s teamsheet as soon as it is delivered Thursday. The Socceroos boss has swung the surprises with both of his lineups so far in the tournament, richly rewarded against Türkiye but not so much against the United States. And while a hamstring injury he suffered against the U.S. will prevent Leckie from retaining his spot in the side and repeating his Danish heroics, just who of Connor Metcalfe, Nestory Irankunda, or Cristian Volpato — who all helped spark a second-half fightback against the Americans — comes into the lineup, if any, or if there are changes to the midfield to reintroduce the veteran head of Jackson Irvine, looms as a major story.
“I would be surprised if there weren’t any changes. How many? That’s still up in the air,” assistant coach Paul Okon Sr. said on Tuesday.
After Cameron Burgess’s withdrawal at halftime of the U.S. defeat, there is also conjecture surrounding a change in the backline. Yet while much discussion Down Under is focusing on reported Barcelona target Lucas Herrington coming in, this overlooks that it was Jason Geria who was introduced for Burgess, with the longtime Popovic collaborator not exactly doing much wrong after he entered, either.
A Tough Test Awaits in Paraguay
Whoever plays, they will be facing a stern test. La Albirroja experienced a blip against the United States in their opening game, but reasserted the gritty defensive reputation they earned in qualification by digging in with 10 men for 45 minutes and securing a 1-0 win over Türkiye last time out. They’re not exactly prolific in front of goal, scoring just 14 goals in qualification and entering Thursday with their only double-digit goalscorer at the international level, Miguel Almirón, suspended.
But they did beat Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay in the crucible that is South American qualifying and are riding an emotional wave, with coach Gustavo Alfaro declaring on Sunday that he wanted his side to send a message to kids on the streets of Paraguay: “Being less for us means being more.”
“You know what kind of game it’s going to be,” Irvine said midweek. “They have incredible individual quality, as you saw in some moments, and you expect the unexpected.”
An Uneasy History Against South American Opposition
Speaking of South America, Australia has a rather abject record against CONMEBOL nations, with just nine wins from their 50 meetings against foes from the continent. They are undefeated against Paraguay across their rivalry, at least, with two wins and three draws from their previous five meetings, but the last time the two played was in 2010, when a side featuring the likes of Mark Schwarzer, Harry Kewell, and Tim Cahill defeated La Albirroja thanks to a goal from David Carney.
Bracing for a Physical, Cagey Battle
“South American teams, they’re a different kind of opponent as opposed to any teams from Europe or from Asia,” said Geria. “They’re a lot more street-wise. There’s going to be a lot of little stuff off the ball, the tactics to get you angry, to get you off of your game, to get you booked, and potentially sent off. Those little games. And then the fight, these guys fight, they play like every game is their last game they’re going to play. And they fight for everything.”
With Australia entering Thursday’s match needing only a draw to secure passage to the knockout stage, the broader question facing Popovic and his coaching staff is how aggressively to adjust a lineup that delivered an encouraging second-half response against the United States even in defeat. Given Paraguay’s defensive resilience and the emotional motivation Alfaro has instilled in his squad, the Socceroos appear set for precisely the kind of physical, hard-fought contest that Geria and his teammates have spent the week preparing for — a fitting final test before Australia learns whether it will follow in the footsteps of the 2022 squad immortalized on their breakfast room wall.
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